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Well, the 90% will be correct that their home will increase in value over the next 20 – 30 years.
But as for the 53% hoping for an increase in the next year… they must have the thickest BEER goggles to think that.
Another thing to consider is the eroding effect of inflation. For example, people who are getting 2004 prices for their homes now may think that they haven’t made any profit and have just stayed even, when in fact they have lost 8%, factoring in a 4% yearly inflation.
I think all that optimism will just make things worse. If people think that their home price will continue to increase then there is no motivation to save or prepare for the adjusting ARM. If they think that when the ARM resets they can just refiance because their house will be worth more, they will be in for a big surprise. If they had any clue they should start preparing for higher payments or even consider selling now before prices fall even more.
It’s usually good to be optimistic, but in this case, it’s just going to make things much more painful.
The fact that they believe this just confirms that there’s a sucker born every minute!
Can YOU say “wishful thinking” ? I knew you could!
Pete