Have some areas in San Diego county hit bottom?

[DWCAP]

One house does not a market make.

Competivly priced houses are getting lots of attention right now. To assume that other houses wont try to get in on that attention by becoming competivly priced is to misunderstand how housing is priced (comps). Soon, they are not competivly priced anymore and then further reductions are needed to gain the attention. Poway is not amazingly different than MM, RB, or PQ. Pain in one will spread to the others. Also, just because people are looking doesnt mean people are BUYING/CLOSING. Look at Raptorduck, 100+ houses and now a renter. Ill bet he has alot more resources to buy than those 30 something families.

If you dont believe me look at the sales totals on the main page from Rich. Down 33.7% from 2007. If places were bottoming sales wouldnt be getting cut by a third. Sales are slowing, Inventory is high, must sell inventory is high, rates are extreamly favorable already, effects of recession and employment decline are mostly still ahead not behind. That doesnt meet the definintion of any bottom I have ever heard of.

[Eugene]

The mother of all bubble markets (in the SD metropolitan area), Temecula has not hit the bottom. So, I don’t see how any part of SD county has hit the bottom.

What makes you think that Temecula has not hit the bottom?

[Eugene]

The mother of all bubble markets (in the SD metropolitan area), Temecula has not hit the bottom. So, I don’t see how any part of SD county has hit the bottom.

What makes you think that Temecula has not hit the bottom?

[Eugene]

The mother of all bubble markets (in the SD metropolitan area), Temecula has not hit the bottom. So, I don’t see how any part of SD county has hit the bottom.

What makes you think that Temecula has not hit the bottom?

[Eugene]

The mother of all bubble markets (in the SD metropolitan area), Temecula has not hit the bottom. So, I don’t see how any part of SD county has hit the bottom.

What makes you think that Temecula has not hit the bottom?

[Eugene]

The mother of all bubble markets (in the SD metropolitan area), Temecula has not hit the bottom. So, I don’t see how any part of SD county has hit the bottom.

What makes you think that Temecula has not hit the bottom?

[JWM in SD]

esmith,

I drove through an area of Murrieta yesterday afternoon…just a random drive while visiting a friend there. Here is what we saw in span of one two streets. Six to 8 for sale signs and one very nice corner lot home with a huge foreclosure notice in the window and sign indicating it would be up for auction soon. The street that our friend lives on had at least 3. In fact, they were on either side of our friends’ house…nice.

The thing is, these homes were new, and very, very nice looking at least from the outside. Even I have to admit that it is tempting. However, I don’t believe the downside is fully in because the credit mess has not played yet…not even close in fact. The lending standards are still looser than I think will get over the next couple of years. It is tempting though.

[JWM in SD]

esmith,

I drove through an area of Murrieta yesterday afternoon…just a random drive while visiting a friend there. Here is what we saw in span of one two streets. Six to 8 for sale signs and one very nice corner lot home with a huge foreclosure notice in the window and sign indicating it would be up for auction soon. The street that our friend lives on had at least 3. In fact, they were on either side of our friends’ house…nice.

The thing is, these homes were new, and very, very nice looking at least from the outside. Even I have to admit that it is tempting. However, I don’t believe the downside is fully in because the credit mess has not played yet…not even close in fact. The lending standards are still looser than I think will get over the next couple of years. It is tempting though.

[JWM in SD]

esmith,

I drove through an area of Murrieta yesterday afternoon…just a random drive while visiting a friend there. Here is what we saw in span of one two streets. Six to 8 for sale signs and one very nice corner lot home with a huge foreclosure notice in the window and sign indicating it would be up for auction soon. The street that our friend lives on had at least 3. In fact, they were on either side of our friends’ house…nice.

The thing is, these homes were new, and very, very nice looking at least from the outside. Even I have to admit that it is tempting. However, I don’t believe the downside is fully in because the credit mess has not played yet…not even close in fact. The lending standards are still looser than I think will get over the next couple of years. It is tempting though.

[JWM in SD]

esmith,

I drove through an area of Murrieta yesterday afternoon…just a random drive while visiting a friend there. Here is what we saw in span of one two streets. Six to 8 for sale signs and one very nice corner lot home with a huge foreclosure notice in the window and sign indicating it would be up for auction soon. The street that our friend lives on had at least 3. In fact, they were on either side of our friends’ house…nice.

The thing is, these homes were new, and very, very nice looking at least from the outside. Even I have to admit that it is tempting. However, I don’t believe the downside is fully in because the credit mess has not played yet…not even close in fact. The lending standards are still looser than I think will get over the next couple of years. It is tempting though.

[JWM in SD]

esmith,

I drove through an area of Murrieta yesterday afternoon…just a random drive while visiting a friend there. Here is what we saw in span of one two streets. Six to 8 for sale signs and one very nice corner lot home with a huge foreclosure notice in the window and sign indicating it would be up for auction soon. The street that our friend lives on had at least 3. In fact, they were on either side of our friends’ house…nice.

The thing is, these homes were new, and very, very nice looking at least from the outside. Even I have to admit that it is tempting. However, I don’t believe the downside is fully in because the credit mess has not played yet…not even close in fact. The lending standards are still looser than I think will get over the next couple of years. It is tempting though.

[Bugs]

1 – There are very few realty agents whom we allow to be quoted here. I’m pretty sure this individual isn’t one of them.

2 – Santee = Poway ??? (see above)

3 – There are 147 active listings for SFRs right now. There have been an average of 17.33 sales/month over the first 3 months of this year. That means we have 8.5 months worth of standing inventory.

4 – Foreclosure.com currently lists 104 foreclosures and 241 NODs for Santee. That number probably isn’t extremely accurate, but when you compare it to the rate of sales it should give you an idea of what’s coming down the pike over the next few months.

5 – Median price for the closed sales this last quarter was $401,383, which is now only 5.12 x the average annual household income in town ($78,250). By contrast, the median price in 1999 ($191,499) was only 3.6 times the then-median household income level of $53,624. To do that in the here and now, the current medians would have to drop to $281,700.

6 – See #1 above

[Bugs]

1 – There are very few realty agents whom we allow to be quoted here. I’m pretty sure this individual isn’t one of them.

2 – Santee = Poway ??? (see above)

3 – There are 147 active listings for SFRs right now. There have been an average of 17.33 sales/month over the first 3 months of this year. That means we have 8.5 months worth of standing inventory.

4 – Foreclosure.com currently lists 104 foreclosures and 241 NODs for Santee. That number probably isn’t extremely accurate, but when you compare it to the rate of sales it should give you an idea of what’s coming down the pike over the next few months.

5 – Median price for the closed sales this last quarter was $401,383, which is now only 5.12 x the average annual household income in town ($78,250). By contrast, the median price in 1999 ($191,499) was only 3.6 times the then-median household income level of $53,624. To do that in the here and now, the current medians would have to drop to $281,700.

6 – See #1 above

[Bugs]

1 – There are very few realty agents whom we allow to be quoted here. I’m pretty sure this individual isn’t one of them.

2 – Santee = Poway ??? (see above)

3 – There are 147 active listings for SFRs right now. There have been an average of 17.33 sales/month over the first 3 months of this year. That means we have 8.5 months worth of standing inventory.

4 – Foreclosure.com currently lists 104 foreclosures and 241 NODs for Santee. That number probably isn’t extremely accurate, but when you compare it to the rate of sales it should give you an idea of what’s coming down the pike over the next few months.

5 – Median price for the closed sales this last quarter was $401,383, which is now only 5.12 x the average annual household income in town ($78,250). By contrast, the median price in 1999 ($191,499) was only 3.6 times the then-median household income level of $53,624. To do that in the here and now, the current medians would have to drop to $281,700.

6 – See #1 above

[Bugs]

1 – There are very few realty agents whom we allow to be quoted here. I’m pretty sure this individual isn’t one of them.

2 – Santee = Poway ??? (see above)

3 – There are 147 active listings for SFRs right now. There have been an average of 17.33 sales/month over the first 3 months of this year. That means we have 8.5 months worth of standing inventory.

4 – Foreclosure.com currently lists 104 foreclosures and 241 NODs for Santee. That number probably isn’t extremely accurate, but when you compare it to the rate of sales it should give you an idea of what’s coming down the pike over the next few months.

5 – Median price for the closed sales this last quarter was $401,383, which is now only 5.12 x the average annual household income in town ($78,250). By contrast, the median price in 1999 ($191,499) was only 3.6 times the then-median household income level of $53,624. To do that in the here and now, the current medians would have to drop to $281,700.

6 – See #1 above

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