Haircut on REO in Vista

[bob007]

thanks to bugs for telling how much is a good deal

[AK]

Down to $299K now …

Let’s see how low it goes, and how it influences the three other listed units in the same complex.

[AK]

Been off Zip for a while … it disappeared once before but I think it actually sold this time. Interesting to see what it went for.

Another (upgraded) unit in the complex is at 144 DOM and playing silly pricing tricks:

Price Reduced: 12/06/06 — $325,000 to $310,000
Price Increased: 12/12/06 — $310,000 to $315,000
Price Reduced: 01/26/07 — $315,000 to $314,000
Price Reduced: 03/09/07 — $314,000 to $313,000

[AK]

Ding ding! We have a winner! Zillow reports that 335 Windy closed at $307K on April 10. Last asking price was $299K, so I assume there were some incentives involved.

By way of comparison 357 Windy sold March 22 for $320K, and 307 Windy (a 3/2) sold the same day for $345K.

[AK]

Fast forward to December 2008 … There are now three listings in that complex … Asking prices range from the REO fixer at $165K to the end unit that “needs TLC” for $185K.

Looks like we’ve hit 2000-2001 pricing here. Perrychase predicted things would bottom out around 2001 prices, which suggests he’s the winner so far … unless things drop even more, in which case Masayako might win with his prediction of 1999 pricing.

Bugs wrote a detailed cost analysis that stated, in part: “I think this unit could end up below $200k in an undervalued market … At $175k it would be just under 50% of the peak pricing for this puppy, which would put it back into line for the long term pricing trend.”

If/when the REO pipeline starts flowing again early next year I think this Pigg of modest means will be in buying mode.

[AK]

Fast forward to December 2008 … There are now three listings in that complex … Asking prices range from the REO fixer at $165K to the end unit that “needs TLC” for $185K.

Looks like we’ve hit 2000-2001 pricing here. Perrychase predicted things would bottom out around 2001 prices, which suggests he’s the winner so far … unless things drop even more, in which case Masayako might win with his prediction of 1999 pricing.

Bugs wrote a detailed cost analysis that stated, in part: “I think this unit could end up below $200k in an undervalued market … At $175k it would be just under 50% of the peak pricing for this puppy, which would put it back into line for the long term pricing trend.”

If/when the REO pipeline starts flowing again early next year I think this Pigg of modest means will be in buying mode.

[AK]

Fast forward to December 2008 … There are now three listings in that complex … Asking prices range from the REO fixer at $165K to the end unit that “needs TLC” for $185K.

Looks like we’ve hit 2000-2001 pricing here. Perrychase predicted things would bottom out around 2001 prices, which suggests he’s the winner so far … unless things drop even more, in which case Masayako might win with his prediction of 1999 pricing.

Bugs wrote a detailed cost analysis that stated, in part: “I think this unit could end up below $200k in an undervalued market … At $175k it would be just under 50% of the peak pricing for this puppy, which would put it back into line for the long term pricing trend.”

If/when the REO pipeline starts flowing again early next year I think this Pigg of modest means will be in buying mode.

[AK]

Fast forward to December 2008 … There are now three listings in that complex … Asking prices range from the REO fixer at $165K to the end unit that “needs TLC” for $185K.

Looks like we’ve hit 2000-2001 pricing here. Perrychase predicted things would bottom out around 2001 prices, which suggests he’s the winner so far … unless things drop even more, in which case Masayako might win with his prediction of 1999 pricing.

Bugs wrote a detailed cost analysis that stated, in part: “I think this unit could end up below $200k in an undervalued market … At $175k it would be just under 50% of the peak pricing for this puppy, which would put it back into line for the long term pricing trend.”

If/when the REO pipeline starts flowing again early next year I think this Pigg of modest means will be in buying mode.

[AK]

Fast forward to December 2008 … There are now three listings in that complex … Asking prices range from the REO fixer at $165K to the end unit that “needs TLC” for $185K.

Looks like we’ve hit 2000-2001 pricing here. Perrychase predicted things would bottom out around 2001 prices, which suggests he’s the winner so far … unless things drop even more, in which case Masayako might win with his prediction of 1999 pricing.

Bugs wrote a detailed cost analysis that stated, in part: “I think this unit could end up below $200k in an undervalued market … At $175k it would be just under 50% of the peak pricing for this puppy, which would put it back into line for the long term pricing trend.”

If/when the REO pipeline starts flowing again early next year I think this Pigg of modest means will be in buying mode.

[temeculaguy]

Looks like the pain train just pulled into Vista, right on schedule.

[temeculaguy]

Looks like the pain train just pulled into Vista, right on schedule.

[temeculaguy]

Looks like the pain train just pulled into Vista, right on schedule.

[temeculaguy]

Looks like the pain train just pulled into Vista, right on schedule.

[temeculaguy]

Looks like the pain train just pulled into Vista, right on schedule.

[CA renter]

FWIW, in early 1998, I bought a ~1,200 sf, 3/2 SFH in O’side (92057, but not the worst area) for under $120K. By mid-2001, they were selling for around $250K, so they had already doubled by then.

IMHO, we will see pre-2001 pricing **without a major recession/depression** (already here, so that’s optimistic), and prices could very well fall below that if we don’t see INCOME growth in the near future.

All price gains from 2001 onward were due to the credit bubble, not fundamentals. We’ve been in a recession (masked by the credit bubble) since the dot.com implosion.

[Author]

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