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October 2, 2008 at 11:03 AM #279787October 2, 2008 at 11:09 AM #279467alarmclockParticipant
I would say that many of the aforementioned reasons “set the stage” for the housing bubble (e.g. CRA, GSEs, DPA, repeal of Glass-Steagall).
But the “but-for” cause of the bubble rests with greenspan for holding rates below 2% for 3 years (Dec ’01 – Sept ’04). Everything else was kindling, the Fed lit the fire.
The low FFR triggered BOTH SUPPLY and DEMAND: It triggered supply of easy money AND it forced billions of dollars of investments into higher paying securities. These large pension funds have to earn 6% or better to make good on the promises of the last 20 years; when the FFR went down to 1%, this was a nightmare scenario for meeting future defined benefit obligations.
(I feel that) the thing so many poeple don’t realize is that if no-one was buying the mortgage securities, you couldn’t have had such a large bubble. It took a combination of people willing to take on the debt PLUS people willing to buy the debt–and the willingness to buy the debt grew because the FFR was below the rate of inflation.
October 2, 2008 at 11:09 AM #279736alarmclockParticipantI would say that many of the aforementioned reasons “set the stage” for the housing bubble (e.g. CRA, GSEs, DPA, repeal of Glass-Steagall).
But the “but-for” cause of the bubble rests with greenspan for holding rates below 2% for 3 years (Dec ’01 – Sept ’04). Everything else was kindling, the Fed lit the fire.
The low FFR triggered BOTH SUPPLY and DEMAND: It triggered supply of easy money AND it forced billions of dollars of investments into higher paying securities. These large pension funds have to earn 6% or better to make good on the promises of the last 20 years; when the FFR went down to 1%, this was a nightmare scenario for meeting future defined benefit obligations.
(I feel that) the thing so many poeple don’t realize is that if no-one was buying the mortgage securities, you couldn’t have had such a large bubble. It took a combination of people willing to take on the debt PLUS people willing to buy the debt–and the willingness to buy the debt grew because the FFR was below the rate of inflation.
October 2, 2008 at 11:09 AM #279744alarmclockParticipantI would say that many of the aforementioned reasons “set the stage” for the housing bubble (e.g. CRA, GSEs, DPA, repeal of Glass-Steagall).
But the “but-for” cause of the bubble rests with greenspan for holding rates below 2% for 3 years (Dec ’01 – Sept ’04). Everything else was kindling, the Fed lit the fire.
The low FFR triggered BOTH SUPPLY and DEMAND: It triggered supply of easy money AND it forced billions of dollars of investments into higher paying securities. These large pension funds have to earn 6% or better to make good on the promises of the last 20 years; when the FFR went down to 1%, this was a nightmare scenario for meeting future defined benefit obligations.
(I feel that) the thing so many poeple don’t realize is that if no-one was buying the mortgage securities, you couldn’t have had such a large bubble. It took a combination of people willing to take on the debt PLUS people willing to buy the debt–and the willingness to buy the debt grew because the FFR was below the rate of inflation.
October 2, 2008 at 11:09 AM #279784alarmclockParticipantI would say that many of the aforementioned reasons “set the stage” for the housing bubble (e.g. CRA, GSEs, DPA, repeal of Glass-Steagall).
But the “but-for” cause of the bubble rests with greenspan for holding rates below 2% for 3 years (Dec ’01 – Sept ’04). Everything else was kindling, the Fed lit the fire.
The low FFR triggered BOTH SUPPLY and DEMAND: It triggered supply of easy money AND it forced billions of dollars of investments into higher paying securities. These large pension funds have to earn 6% or better to make good on the promises of the last 20 years; when the FFR went down to 1%, this was a nightmare scenario for meeting future defined benefit obligations.
(I feel that) the thing so many poeple don’t realize is that if no-one was buying the mortgage securities, you couldn’t have had such a large bubble. It took a combination of people willing to take on the debt PLUS people willing to buy the debt–and the willingness to buy the debt grew because the FFR was below the rate of inflation.
October 2, 2008 at 11:09 AM #279796alarmclockParticipantI would say that many of the aforementioned reasons “set the stage” for the housing bubble (e.g. CRA, GSEs, DPA, repeal of Glass-Steagall).
But the “but-for” cause of the bubble rests with greenspan for holding rates below 2% for 3 years (Dec ’01 – Sept ’04). Everything else was kindling, the Fed lit the fire.
The low FFR triggered BOTH SUPPLY and DEMAND: It triggered supply of easy money AND it forced billions of dollars of investments into higher paying securities. These large pension funds have to earn 6% or better to make good on the promises of the last 20 years; when the FFR went down to 1%, this was a nightmare scenario for meeting future defined benefit obligations.
(I feel that) the thing so many poeple don’t realize is that if no-one was buying the mortgage securities, you couldn’t have had such a large bubble. It took a combination of people willing to take on the debt PLUS people willing to buy the debt–and the willingness to buy the debt grew because the FFR was below the rate of inflation.
October 2, 2008 at 6:38 PM #279727CA renterParticipantalarmclock,
I agree 100%. Everyone had a hand in this, but Greenspan is #1 because he forced people to move further out on the risk curve in order to break-even or beat inflation.
October 2, 2008 at 6:38 PM #279997CA renterParticipantalarmclock,
I agree 100%. Everyone had a hand in this, but Greenspan is #1 because he forced people to move further out on the risk curve in order to break-even or beat inflation.
October 2, 2008 at 6:38 PM #280003CA renterParticipantalarmclock,
I agree 100%. Everyone had a hand in this, but Greenspan is #1 because he forced people to move further out on the risk curve in order to break-even or beat inflation.
October 2, 2008 at 6:38 PM #280044CA renterParticipantalarmclock,
I agree 100%. Everyone had a hand in this, but Greenspan is #1 because he forced people to move further out on the risk curve in order to break-even or beat inflation.
October 2, 2008 at 6:38 PM #280056CA renterParticipantalarmclock,
I agree 100%. Everyone had a hand in this, but Greenspan is #1 because he forced people to move further out on the risk curve in order to break-even or beat inflation.
October 2, 2008 at 8:27 PM #279775patbParticipant[quote=socrattt]. Firstly, Bush did not have his hand in 9/11, although many conspiracy theorist would beg to differ. Secondly, the housing market, which obviously took many years and a lot of deregulation to inflate. This would leave Bush with one major problem and that was Iraq.
!![/quote]“Bin Laden Determined to Attack”
Bush was on vacation when he got that briefing.
October 2, 2008 at 8:27 PM #280047patbParticipant[quote=socrattt]. Firstly, Bush did not have his hand in 9/11, although many conspiracy theorist would beg to differ. Secondly, the housing market, which obviously took many years and a lot of deregulation to inflate. This would leave Bush with one major problem and that was Iraq.
!![/quote]“Bin Laden Determined to Attack”
Bush was on vacation when he got that briefing.
October 2, 2008 at 8:27 PM #280053patbParticipant[quote=socrattt]. Firstly, Bush did not have his hand in 9/11, although many conspiracy theorist would beg to differ. Secondly, the housing market, which obviously took many years and a lot of deregulation to inflate. This would leave Bush with one major problem and that was Iraq.
!![/quote]“Bin Laden Determined to Attack”
Bush was on vacation when he got that briefing.
October 2, 2008 at 8:27 PM #280094patbParticipant[quote=socrattt]. Firstly, Bush did not have his hand in 9/11, although many conspiracy theorist would beg to differ. Secondly, the housing market, which obviously took many years and a lot of deregulation to inflate. This would leave Bush with one major problem and that was Iraq.
!![/quote]“Bin Laden Determined to Attack”
Bush was on vacation when he got that briefing.
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