good time to get out of the market

[pnilesh]

for selling… this is a good time to sell… if you want to buy…wait till S&P drops considerably..

[pnilesh]

for selling… this is a good time to sell… if you want to buy…wait till S&P drops considerably..

[barnaby33]

Wasn’t the last rally, “the last chance?” The one before that perhaps? I’ve lost more money in the last week on puts than I’d care to admit, but I’ll make it all back. Whoever (banks IB and otherwise) has been hiding the sausage is going to have to disclose fairly soon.

Id even venture to guess that the fear caused by interest rate freezes on mortgages will smoke out a few giant holes on balance sheets in the next few weeks.

Either way its not the last rally. There are lots of organizations in govt and entertainment that have the ability to move the markets greatly over very short periods of time. Hell all you have to do is float a rumor that Buffet is going to buy something, thats good for a pop. Then the alcohol wears off and people realize, holy sh!t, we’re in debt! Thats when the next round of fun begins.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Wasn’t the last rally, “the last chance?” The one before that perhaps? I’ve lost more money in the last week on puts than I’d care to admit, but I’ll make it all back. Whoever (banks IB and otherwise) has been hiding the sausage is going to have to disclose fairly soon.

Id even venture to guess that the fear caused by interest rate freezes on mortgages will smoke out a few giant holes on balance sheets in the next few weeks.

Either way its not the last rally. There are lots of organizations in govt and entertainment that have the ability to move the markets greatly over very short periods of time. Hell all you have to do is float a rumor that Buffet is going to buy something, thats good for a pop. Then the alcohol wears off and people realize, holy sh!t, we’re in debt! Thats when the next round of fun begins.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Wasn’t the last rally, “the last chance?” The one before that perhaps? I’ve lost more money in the last week on puts than I’d care to admit, but I’ll make it all back. Whoever (banks IB and otherwise) has been hiding the sausage is going to have to disclose fairly soon.

Id even venture to guess that the fear caused by interest rate freezes on mortgages will smoke out a few giant holes on balance sheets in the next few weeks.

Either way its not the last rally. There are lots of organizations in govt and entertainment that have the ability to move the markets greatly over very short periods of time. Hell all you have to do is float a rumor that Buffet is going to buy something, thats good for a pop. Then the alcohol wears off and people realize, holy sh!t, we’re in debt! Thats when the next round of fun begins.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Wasn’t the last rally, “the last chance?” The one before that perhaps? I’ve lost more money in the last week on puts than I’d care to admit, but I’ll make it all back. Whoever (banks IB and otherwise) has been hiding the sausage is going to have to disclose fairly soon.

Id even venture to guess that the fear caused by interest rate freezes on mortgages will smoke out a few giant holes on balance sheets in the next few weeks.

Either way its not the last rally. There are lots of organizations in govt and entertainment that have the ability to move the markets greatly over very short periods of time. Hell all you have to do is float a rumor that Buffet is going to buy something, thats good for a pop. Then the alcohol wears off and people realize, holy sh!t, we’re in debt! Thats when the next round of fun begins.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Wasn’t the last rally, “the last chance?” The one before that perhaps? I’ve lost more money in the last week on puts than I’d care to admit, but I’ll make it all back. Whoever (banks IB and otherwise) has been hiding the sausage is going to have to disclose fairly soon.

Id even venture to guess that the fear caused by interest rate freezes on mortgages will smoke out a few giant holes on balance sheets in the next few weeks.

Either way its not the last rally. There are lots of organizations in govt and entertainment that have the ability to move the markets greatly over very short periods of time. Hell all you have to do is float a rumor that Buffet is going to buy something, thats good for a pop. Then the alcohol wears off and people realize, holy sh!t, we’re in debt! Thats when the next round of fun begins.

Josh

[Raybyrnes]

kev374

Tend to think the opposite here. I moved a huge chunk of my 401K into bond funds after the previous rate hike. Timed it fairly well. I ahve been now dollar cost averaging those funds bak into the market. I tend to think that we are going to get a rally right into the Fed Meeting and will see a pull back there after.

Additionally there are still a lot of companies that are throwing off good cash flow. For instance, the GAP (GPS).I studied this stock when it was down around $16. Had a lot of negatives but at the same time had tons for free cash flow creating a nice margin of safety. Other companies that are boring but steady included WD-40, and Clorox. So all in all I would tend to think that ther will be a correction by right now it looks like momentum is more upward then downward.

[Raybyrnes]

kev374

Tend to think the opposite here. I moved a huge chunk of my 401K into bond funds after the previous rate hike. Timed it fairly well. I ahve been now dollar cost averaging those funds bak into the market. I tend to think that we are going to get a rally right into the Fed Meeting and will see a pull back there after.

Additionally there are still a lot of companies that are throwing off good cash flow. For instance, the GAP (GPS).I studied this stock when it was down around $16. Had a lot of negatives but at the same time had tons for free cash flow creating a nice margin of safety. Other companies that are boring but steady included WD-40, and Clorox. So all in all I would tend to think that ther will be a correction by right now it looks like momentum is more upward then downward.

[Raybyrnes]

kev374

Tend to think the opposite here. I moved a huge chunk of my 401K into bond funds after the previous rate hike. Timed it fairly well. I ahve been now dollar cost averaging those funds bak into the market. I tend to think that we are going to get a rally right into the Fed Meeting and will see a pull back there after.

Additionally there are still a lot of companies that are throwing off good cash flow. For instance, the GAP (GPS).I studied this stock when it was down around $16. Had a lot of negatives but at the same time had tons for free cash flow creating a nice margin of safety. Other companies that are boring but steady included WD-40, and Clorox. So all in all I would tend to think that ther will be a correction by right now it looks like momentum is more upward then downward.

[Raybyrnes]

kev374

Tend to think the opposite here. I moved a huge chunk of my 401K into bond funds after the previous rate hike. Timed it fairly well. I ahve been now dollar cost averaging those funds bak into the market. I tend to think that we are going to get a rally right into the Fed Meeting and will see a pull back there after.

Additionally there are still a lot of companies that are throwing off good cash flow. For instance, the GAP (GPS).I studied this stock when it was down around $16. Had a lot of negatives but at the same time had tons for free cash flow creating a nice margin of safety. Other companies that are boring but steady included WD-40, and Clorox. So all in all I would tend to think that ther will be a correction by right now it looks like momentum is more upward then downward.

[Raybyrnes]

kev374

Tend to think the opposite here. I moved a huge chunk of my 401K into bond funds after the previous rate hike. Timed it fairly well. I ahve been now dollar cost averaging those funds bak into the market. I tend to think that we are going to get a rally right into the Fed Meeting and will see a pull back there after.

Additionally there are still a lot of companies that are throwing off good cash flow. For instance, the GAP (GPS).I studied this stock when it was down around $16. Had a lot of negatives but at the same time had tons for free cash flow creating a nice margin of safety. Other companies that are boring but steady included WD-40, and Clorox. So all in all I would tend to think that ther will be a correction by right now it looks like momentum is more upward then downward.

[cooperthedog]

Is it a good time to get out of the market? What an excellent question! It really depends on your timeframe.

This market is showing lots of mixed signals. The volatility in prices that generally accompany market tops is present, but the euphoria is not. In fact, there has been so much negativity in the general press (corporate profits down, recession a possibility, credit crunch, weak dollar, etc. etc.), yet the markets are flirting with all time highs, exclude the financials, and we would be above record highs. Maybe the gov’t bailout, rate cut, and expected year-end rally will be enough to offset all the gloom & doom, then we can have a serious sell-off…

Of course, the market will do whatever it pleases. I think the rally off off ~12800 (DJIA) tells the bears that we have some more time. If the market breaks below that, it could get ugly. Assuming a 1/2 pt rate cut, the markets could rally to their previous highs, or even beyond, though I’m betting that prices bounce between 14300 & 12800 for the next few months, until the other shoe drops in the credit markets, recession sets in, etc. Of course, the markets could blow past 14000 and never look back…

If I was a LT investor (hold for years), I would wait until the market really starts to break down, if it indeed does, otherwise your trying to catch the top, which goes against the definition of a LT investor… If intermediate, sell/short at the top of the range and buy/cover at the bottom, reversing quickly should any break occur & re-evaluate from there. The above pertains to US index funds/ETFs, not individual stocks. Also, these are my opinions, not advice.

Let’s hear some other opinions and ideas. Does anyone think that oil has had its run, at least in the next 6 months? Consumer spending over the holidays abyssmal or strong? Has China had its run for now?

[cooperthedog]

Is it a good time to get out of the market? What an excellent question! It really depends on your timeframe.

This market is showing lots of mixed signals. The volatility in prices that generally accompany market tops is present, but the euphoria is not. In fact, there has been so much negativity in the general press (corporate profits down, recession a possibility, credit crunch, weak dollar, etc. etc.), yet the markets are flirting with all time highs, exclude the financials, and we would be above record highs. Maybe the gov’t bailout, rate cut, and expected year-end rally will be enough to offset all the gloom & doom, then we can have a serious sell-off…

Of course, the market will do whatever it pleases. I think the rally off off ~12800 (DJIA) tells the bears that we have some more time. If the market breaks below that, it could get ugly. Assuming a 1/2 pt rate cut, the markets could rally to their previous highs, or even beyond, though I’m betting that prices bounce between 14300 & 12800 for the next few months, until the other shoe drops in the credit markets, recession sets in, etc. Of course, the markets could blow past 14000 and never look back…

If I was a LT investor (hold for years), I would wait until the market really starts to break down, if it indeed does, otherwise your trying to catch the top, which goes against the definition of a LT investor… If intermediate, sell/short at the top of the range and buy/cover at the bottom, reversing quickly should any break occur & re-evaluate from there. The above pertains to US index funds/ETFs, not individual stocks. Also, these are my opinions, not advice.

Let’s hear some other opinions and ideas. Does anyone think that oil has had its run, at least in the next 6 months? Consumer spending over the holidays abyssmal or strong? Has China had its run for now?

[cooperthedog]

Is it a good time to get out of the market? What an excellent question! It really depends on your timeframe.

This market is showing lots of mixed signals. The volatility in prices that generally accompany market tops is present, but the euphoria is not. In fact, there has been so much negativity in the general press (corporate profits down, recession a possibility, credit crunch, weak dollar, etc. etc.), yet the markets are flirting with all time highs, exclude the financials, and we would be above record highs. Maybe the gov’t bailout, rate cut, and expected year-end rally will be enough to offset all the gloom & doom, then we can have a serious sell-off…

Of course, the market will do whatever it pleases. I think the rally off off ~12800 (DJIA) tells the bears that we have some more time. If the market breaks below that, it could get ugly. Assuming a 1/2 pt rate cut, the markets could rally to their previous highs, or even beyond, though I’m betting that prices bounce between 14300 & 12800 for the next few months, until the other shoe drops in the credit markets, recession sets in, etc. Of course, the markets could blow past 14000 and never look back…

If I was a LT investor (hold for years), I would wait until the market really starts to break down, if it indeed does, otherwise your trying to catch the top, which goes against the definition of a LT investor… If intermediate, sell/short at the top of the range and buy/cover at the bottom, reversing quickly should any break occur & re-evaluate from there. The above pertains to US index funds/ETFs, not individual stocks. Also, these are my opinions, not advice.

Let’s hear some other opinions and ideas. Does anyone think that oil has had its run, at least in the next 6 months? Consumer spending over the holidays abyssmal or strong? Has China had its run for now?

[Author]

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