Gold Fever

[4plexowner]

“chris scoreboard said it was a bubble a while back”

he’s been saying this since gold was at $500

currently at $1008 …

[4plexowner]

“… Gold jewelry market “close to dead” compared to a year earlier, and there is no real physical buying outside of investment demand… Jewelry buying typically accounts for around 60 percent of global gold demand.” (Reuters, September 18)

let’s talk about the COMEX gold market

they currently claim to have 9.248 million ounces of gold (not all of this is available for delivery) – at $1008/oz that is $9.3 billion dollars worth of gold

“In 2003, the U.S. Bond market is valued at over $20 trillion, which is $20,000,000,000,000. The measure of the money supply in U.S. banks is valued at about $8.8 trillion. The total paper money is $29 trillion.” http://silverstockreport.com/historyofmoney.htm

“The total market capitalization of all publicly traded companies in the world was US$51.2 trillion in January 2007” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_capitalization

now let’s take a closer look at the quote from Reuters

“there is no real physical buying outside of investment demand”

the bond market is at least $20 trillion in size – how much “investment demand” has to move from a $20 trillion dollar market into a $9.3 billion dollar market before the $9.3 billion dollar market is affected?

the stock markets worldwide are $50 trillion is size – how much “investment demand” has to move from a $50 trillion market to a $9.3 billion market before the $9.3 billion market is affected?

in case you haven’t figured it out yet, the point I am making is this: the dollar value of the gold market is TRIVIAL in comparison to all of the other asset markets – it only takes a little “investment demand” shift into gold before the gold price is affected significantly

you don’t think $5000/oz gold is possible? how much of the $70 trillion in stocks and bonds has to shift into gold before $5000/oz is reached (and surpassed)?

the silver market is even more exciting – current silver stocks on the COMEX are less than $2 billion worth (not all deliverable) – that’s right, for $2 billion you can corner the silver market – how much money has to shift out of stocks and bonds before a $2 billion dollar market goes ballistic?

from Reuters again: “Jewelry buying typically accounts for around 60 percent of global gold demand”

how many of you would describe our current times as being “typical”?

[4plexowner]

“… Gold jewelry market “close to dead” compared to a year earlier, and there is no real physical buying outside of investment demand… Jewelry buying typically accounts for around 60 percent of global gold demand.” (Reuters, September 18)

let’s talk about the COMEX gold market

they currently claim to have 9.248 million ounces of gold (not all of this is available for delivery) – at $1008/oz that is $9.3 billion dollars worth of gold

“In 2003, the U.S. Bond market is valued at over $20 trillion, which is $20,000,000,000,000. The measure of the money supply in U.S. banks is valued at about $8.8 trillion. The total paper money is $29 trillion.” http://silverstockreport.com/historyofmoney.htm

“The total market capitalization of all publicly traded companies in the world was US$51.2 trillion in January 2007” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_capitalization

now let’s take a closer look at the quote from Reuters

“there is no real physical buying outside of investment demand”

the bond market is at least $20 trillion in size – how much “investment demand” has to move from a $20 trillion dollar market into a $9.3 billion dollar market before the $9.3 billion dollar market is affected?

the stock markets worldwide are $50 trillion is size – how much “investment demand” has to move from a $50 trillion market to a $9.3 billion market before the $9.3 billion market is affected?

in case you haven’t figured it out yet, the point I am making is this: the dollar value of the gold market is TRIVIAL in comparison to all of the other asset markets – it only takes a little “investment demand” shift into gold before the gold price is affected significantly

you don’t think $5000/oz gold is possible? how much of the $70 trillion in stocks and bonds has to shift into gold before $5000/oz is reached (and surpassed)?

the silver market is even more exciting – current silver stocks on the COMEX are less than $2 billion worth (not all deliverable) – that’s right, for $2 billion you can corner the silver market – how much money has to shift out of stocks and bonds before a $2 billion dollar market goes ballistic?

from Reuters again: “Jewelry buying typically accounts for around 60 percent of global gold demand”

how many of you would describe our current times as being “typical”?

[4plexowner]

“… Gold jewelry market “close to dead” compared to a year earlier, and there is no real physical buying outside of investment demand… Jewelry buying typically accounts for around 60 percent of global gold demand.” (Reuters, September 18)

let’s talk about the COMEX gold market

they currently claim to have 9.248 million ounces of gold (not all of this is available for delivery) – at $1008/oz that is $9.3 billion dollars worth of gold

“In 2003, the U.S. Bond market is valued at over $20 trillion, which is $20,000,000,000,000. The measure of the money supply in U.S. banks is valued at about $8.8 trillion. The total paper money is $29 trillion.” http://silverstockreport.com/historyofmoney.htm

“The total market capitalization of all publicly traded companies in the world was US$51.2 trillion in January 2007” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_capitalization

now let’s take a closer look at the quote from Reuters

“there is no real physical buying outside of investment demand”

the bond market is at least $20 trillion in size – how much “investment demand” has to move from a $20 trillion dollar market into a $9.3 billion dollar market before the $9.3 billion dollar market is affected?

the stock markets worldwide are $50 trillion is size – how much “investment demand” has to move from a $50 trillion market to a $9.3 billion market before the $9.3 billion market is affected?

in case you haven’t figured it out yet, the point I am making is this: the dollar value of the gold market is TRIVIAL in comparison to all of the other asset markets – it only takes a little “investment demand” shift into gold before the gold price is affected significantly

you don’t think $5000/oz gold is possible? how much of the $70 trillion in stocks and bonds has to shift into gold before $5000/oz is reached (and surpassed)?

the silver market is even more exciting – current silver stocks on the COMEX are less than $2 billion worth (not all deliverable) – that’s right, for $2 billion you can corner the silver market – how much money has to shift out of stocks and bonds before a $2 billion dollar market goes ballistic?

from Reuters again: “Jewelry buying typically accounts for around 60 percent of global gold demand”

how many of you would describe our current times as being “typical”?

[4plexowner]

“… Gold jewelry market “close to dead” compared to a year earlier, and there is no real physical buying outside of investment demand… Jewelry buying typically accounts for around 60 percent of global gold demand.” (Reuters, September 18)

let’s talk about the COMEX gold market

they currently claim to have 9.248 million ounces of gold (not all of this is available for delivery) – at $1008/oz that is $9.3 billion dollars worth of gold

“In 2003, the U.S. Bond market is valued at over $20 trillion, which is $20,000,000,000,000. The measure of the money supply in U.S. banks is valued at about $8.8 trillion. The total paper money is $29 trillion.” http://silverstockreport.com/historyofmoney.htm

“The total market capitalization of all publicly traded companies in the world was US$51.2 trillion in January 2007” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_capitalization

now let’s take a closer look at the quote from Reuters

“there is no real physical buying outside of investment demand”

the bond market is at least $20 trillion in size – how much “investment demand” has to move from a $20 trillion dollar market into a $9.3 billion dollar market before the $9.3 billion dollar market is affected?

the stock markets worldwide are $50 trillion is size – how much “investment demand” has to move from a $50 trillion market to a $9.3 billion market before the $9.3 billion market is affected?

in case you haven’t figured it out yet, the point I am making is this: the dollar value of the gold market is TRIVIAL in comparison to all of the other asset markets – it only takes a little “investment demand” shift into gold before the gold price is affected significantly

you don’t think $5000/oz gold is possible? how much of the $70 trillion in stocks and bonds has to shift into gold before $5000/oz is reached (and surpassed)?

the silver market is even more exciting – current silver stocks on the COMEX are less than $2 billion worth (not all deliverable) – that’s right, for $2 billion you can corner the silver market – how much money has to shift out of stocks and bonds before a $2 billion dollar market goes ballistic?

from Reuters again: “Jewelry buying typically accounts for around 60 percent of global gold demand”

how many of you would describe our current times as being “typical”?

[4plexowner]

“… Gold jewelry market “close to dead” compared to a year earlier, and there is no real physical buying outside of investment demand… Jewelry buying typically accounts for around 60 percent of global gold demand.” (Reuters, September 18)

let’s talk about the COMEX gold market

they currently claim to have 9.248 million ounces of gold (not all of this is available for delivery) – at $1008/oz that is $9.3 billion dollars worth of gold

“In 2003, the U.S. Bond market is valued at over $20 trillion, which is $20,000,000,000,000. The measure of the money supply in U.S. banks is valued at about $8.8 trillion. The total paper money is $29 trillion.” http://silverstockreport.com/historyofmoney.htm

“The total market capitalization of all publicly traded companies in the world was US$51.2 trillion in January 2007” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_capitalization

now let’s take a closer look at the quote from Reuters

“there is no real physical buying outside of investment demand”

the bond market is at least $20 trillion in size – how much “investment demand” has to move from a $20 trillion dollar market into a $9.3 billion dollar market before the $9.3 billion dollar market is affected?

the stock markets worldwide are $50 trillion is size – how much “investment demand” has to move from a $50 trillion market to a $9.3 billion market before the $9.3 billion market is affected?

in case you haven’t figured it out yet, the point I am making is this: the dollar value of the gold market is TRIVIAL in comparison to all of the other asset markets – it only takes a little “investment demand” shift into gold before the gold price is affected significantly

you don’t think $5000/oz gold is possible? how much of the $70 trillion in stocks and bonds has to shift into gold before $5000/oz is reached (and surpassed)?

the silver market is even more exciting – current silver stocks on the COMEX are less than $2 billion worth (not all deliverable) – that’s right, for $2 billion you can corner the silver market – how much money has to shift out of stocks and bonds before a $2 billion dollar market goes ballistic?

from Reuters again: “Jewelry buying typically accounts for around 60 percent of global gold demand”

how many of you would describe our current times as being “typical”?

[4plexowner]

“Unfortunate parallels between people buying gold now and subprime suckers buying houses in 2006 come to mind.”

and here’s the tricky part of investing – timing!

you think the gold ‘bubble’ is at or near its peak ala the housing market in 2006

I think the gold ‘bubble’ is more like the housing market in 2002 with another several years to run – not only that, I think the gains in the gold ‘bubble’ will astound people the same way housing gains in the final years of the bubble astounded me

one of us will be right …

[4plexowner]

“Unfortunate parallels between people buying gold now and subprime suckers buying houses in 2006 come to mind.”

and here’s the tricky part of investing – timing!

you think the gold ‘bubble’ is at or near its peak ala the housing market in 2006

I think the gold ‘bubble’ is more like the housing market in 2002 with another several years to run – not only that, I think the gains in the gold ‘bubble’ will astound people the same way housing gains in the final years of the bubble astounded me

one of us will be right …

[4plexowner]

“Unfortunate parallels between people buying gold now and subprime suckers buying houses in 2006 come to mind.”

and here’s the tricky part of investing – timing!

you think the gold ‘bubble’ is at or near its peak ala the housing market in 2006

I think the gold ‘bubble’ is more like the housing market in 2002 with another several years to run – not only that, I think the gains in the gold ‘bubble’ will astound people the same way housing gains in the final years of the bubble astounded me

one of us will be right …

[4plexowner]

“Unfortunate parallels between people buying gold now and subprime suckers buying houses in 2006 come to mind.”

and here’s the tricky part of investing – timing!

you think the gold ‘bubble’ is at or near its peak ala the housing market in 2006

I think the gold ‘bubble’ is more like the housing market in 2002 with another several years to run – not only that, I think the gains in the gold ‘bubble’ will astound people the same way housing gains in the final years of the bubble astounded me

one of us will be right …

[4plexowner]

“Unfortunate parallels between people buying gold now and subprime suckers buying houses in 2006 come to mind.”

and here’s the tricky part of investing – timing!

you think the gold ‘bubble’ is at or near its peak ala the housing market in 2006

I think the gold ‘bubble’ is more like the housing market in 2002 with another several years to run – not only that, I think the gains in the gold ‘bubble’ will astound people the same way housing gains in the final years of the bubble astounded me

one of us will be right …

[4plexowner]

this post refers to Eugene’s chart posted at the top of this thread

Let’s take some time understanding this chart

The blue line shows the amount of gold held in the GLD ETF – I believe the left axis is showing tons

Eugene is pointing to the action in 08 and 09 as a change in trends

No argument about that – clearly something changed – the price of gold went down while the tonnage of gold held by GLD went up

Eugene’s interpretation of this change is that smart money sold physical gold while dumb money bought paper gold in GLD

I won’t argue that point – it is one possible interpretation of the data

I will point out however that, as always, there is more than one factor acting on any given market at any given time

These factors express themselves in the price action of the market being analyzed

We can talk, argue, bloviate, etc about one interpretation vs another all day long – the data that Piggs are so insistent upon shows up in price

Notice in the chart that Eugene provided how gold’s price behaves when it pushes up through a round number ($400, $500, etc)

It doesn’t just punch through the number and move on to the next target – it has to beat on the number a few times before punching through decisively

So Eugene’s chart shows us the same action at $1000 – price has touched the number and pulled back

If we look closely we see that gold has had several rises of $250 – from $450 to $700 – from $650 to $900 – form a base and then rise, form a base and then rise …

Current base is $900 – tell me that the next target for gold, based on this chart, ISN’T $1150/oz!

Back to GLD holdings

So they started to increase in Feb 2008

Hadn’t the equity markets started to tank around October of 2007?

Let’s see, DOW 14,100 in Oct 2007 – DOW 11,600 in Feb 2008 – a decline of 2500 points or 18%

Do you think a few stock investors might have been scared out of stocks and into the perceived safety of GLD? Unwilling to pull their money out of 401Ks and retirement plans to buy physical gold, they were constrained to buying paper gold ala GLD?

Just another interpretation of the data …

[4plexowner]

this post refers to Eugene’s chart posted at the top of this thread

Let’s take some time understanding this chart

The blue line shows the amount of gold held in the GLD ETF – I believe the left axis is showing tons

Eugene is pointing to the action in 08 and 09 as a change in trends

No argument about that – clearly something changed – the price of gold went down while the tonnage of gold held by GLD went up

Eugene’s interpretation of this change is that smart money sold physical gold while dumb money bought paper gold in GLD

I won’t argue that point – it is one possible interpretation of the data

I will point out however that, as always, there is more than one factor acting on any given market at any given time

These factors express themselves in the price action of the market being analyzed

We can talk, argue, bloviate, etc about one interpretation vs another all day long – the data that Piggs are so insistent upon shows up in price

Notice in the chart that Eugene provided how gold’s price behaves when it pushes up through a round number ($400, $500, etc)

It doesn’t just punch through the number and move on to the next target – it has to beat on the number a few times before punching through decisively

So Eugene’s chart shows us the same action at $1000 – price has touched the number and pulled back

If we look closely we see that gold has had several rises of $250 – from $450 to $700 – from $650 to $900 – form a base and then rise, form a base and then rise …

Current base is $900 – tell me that the next target for gold, based on this chart, ISN’T $1150/oz!

Back to GLD holdings

So they started to increase in Feb 2008

Hadn’t the equity markets started to tank around October of 2007?

Let’s see, DOW 14,100 in Oct 2007 – DOW 11,600 in Feb 2008 – a decline of 2500 points or 18%

Do you think a few stock investors might have been scared out of stocks and into the perceived safety of GLD? Unwilling to pull their money out of 401Ks and retirement plans to buy physical gold, they were constrained to buying paper gold ala GLD?

Just another interpretation of the data …

[4plexowner]

this post refers to Eugene’s chart posted at the top of this thread

Let’s take some time understanding this chart

The blue line shows the amount of gold held in the GLD ETF – I believe the left axis is showing tons

Eugene is pointing to the action in 08 and 09 as a change in trends

No argument about that – clearly something changed – the price of gold went down while the tonnage of gold held by GLD went up

Eugene’s interpretation of this change is that smart money sold physical gold while dumb money bought paper gold in GLD

I won’t argue that point – it is one possible interpretation of the data

I will point out however that, as always, there is more than one factor acting on any given market at any given time

These factors express themselves in the price action of the market being analyzed

We can talk, argue, bloviate, etc about one interpretation vs another all day long – the data that Piggs are so insistent upon shows up in price

Notice in the chart that Eugene provided how gold’s price behaves when it pushes up through a round number ($400, $500, etc)

It doesn’t just punch through the number and move on to the next target – it has to beat on the number a few times before punching through decisively

So Eugene’s chart shows us the same action at $1000 – price has touched the number and pulled back

If we look closely we see that gold has had several rises of $250 – from $450 to $700 – from $650 to $900 – form a base and then rise, form a base and then rise …

Current base is $900 – tell me that the next target for gold, based on this chart, ISN’T $1150/oz!

Back to GLD holdings

So they started to increase in Feb 2008

Hadn’t the equity markets started to tank around October of 2007?

Let’s see, DOW 14,100 in Oct 2007 – DOW 11,600 in Feb 2008 – a decline of 2500 points or 18%

Do you think a few stock investors might have been scared out of stocks and into the perceived safety of GLD? Unwilling to pull their money out of 401Ks and retirement plans to buy physical gold, they were constrained to buying paper gold ala GLD?

Just another interpretation of the data …

[4plexowner]

this post refers to Eugene’s chart posted at the top of this thread

Let’s take some time understanding this chart

The blue line shows the amount of gold held in the GLD ETF – I believe the left axis is showing tons

Eugene is pointing to the action in 08 and 09 as a change in trends

No argument about that – clearly something changed – the price of gold went down while the tonnage of gold held by GLD went up

Eugene’s interpretation of this change is that smart money sold physical gold while dumb money bought paper gold in GLD

I won’t argue that point – it is one possible interpretation of the data

I will point out however that, as always, there is more than one factor acting on any given market at any given time

These factors express themselves in the price action of the market being analyzed

We can talk, argue, bloviate, etc about one interpretation vs another all day long – the data that Piggs are so insistent upon shows up in price

Notice in the chart that Eugene provided how gold’s price behaves when it pushes up through a round number ($400, $500, etc)

It doesn’t just punch through the number and move on to the next target – it has to beat on the number a few times before punching through decisively

So Eugene’s chart shows us the same action at $1000 – price has touched the number and pulled back

If we look closely we see that gold has had several rises of $250 – from $450 to $700 – from $650 to $900 – form a base and then rise, form a base and then rise …

Current base is $900 – tell me that the next target for gold, based on this chart, ISN’T $1150/oz!

Back to GLD holdings

So they started to increase in Feb 2008

Hadn’t the equity markets started to tank around October of 2007?

Let’s see, DOW 14,100 in Oct 2007 – DOW 11,600 in Feb 2008 – a decline of 2500 points or 18%

Do you think a few stock investors might have been scared out of stocks and into the perceived safety of GLD? Unwilling to pull their money out of 401Ks and retirement plans to buy physical gold, they were constrained to buying paper gold ala GLD?

Just another interpretation of the data …

[Author]

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