Gold Fever

[4plexowner]

this post refers to Eugene’s chart posted at the top of this thread

Let’s take some time understanding this chart

The blue line shows the amount of gold held in the GLD ETF – I believe the left axis is showing tons

Eugene is pointing to the action in 08 and 09 as a change in trends

No argument about that – clearly something changed – the price of gold went down while the tonnage of gold held by GLD went up

Eugene’s interpretation of this change is that smart money sold physical gold while dumb money bought paper gold in GLD

I won’t argue that point – it is one possible interpretation of the data

I will point out however that, as always, there is more than one factor acting on any given market at any given time

These factors express themselves in the price action of the market being analyzed

We can talk, argue, bloviate, etc about one interpretation vs another all day long – the data that Piggs are so insistent upon shows up in price

Notice in the chart that Eugene provided how gold’s price behaves when it pushes up through a round number ($400, $500, etc)

It doesn’t just punch through the number and move on to the next target – it has to beat on the number a few times before punching through decisively

So Eugene’s chart shows us the same action at $1000 – price has touched the number and pulled back

If we look closely we see that gold has had several rises of $250 – from $450 to $700 – from $650 to $900 – form a base and then rise, form a base and then rise …

Current base is $900 – tell me that the next target for gold, based on this chart, ISN’T $1150/oz!

Back to GLD holdings

So they started to increase in Feb 2008

Hadn’t the equity markets started to tank around October of 2007?

Let’s see, DOW 14,100 in Oct 2007 – DOW 11,600 in Feb 2008 – a decline of 2500 points or 18%

Do you think a few stock investors might have been scared out of stocks and into the perceived safety of GLD? Unwilling to pull their money out of 401Ks and retirement plans to buy physical gold, they were constrained to buying paper gold ala GLD?

Just another interpretation of the data …

[Arraya]

Gold does not bubble until the dollar bubble pops.

[Arraya]

Gold does not bubble until the dollar bubble pops.

[Arraya]

Gold does not bubble until the dollar bubble pops.

[Arraya]

Gold does not bubble until the dollar bubble pops.

[Arraya]

Gold does not bubble until the dollar bubble pops.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

C’mon atleast get my comments correct. I was not even participating or had ever heard of this blog when Gold was at $500. If you want to go back and research my comments you will see that I have been bearish mostly when the price has approached $1000. There have been other times as well, whenever the big players become heavy sellers, I usually get bearish, and get bullish when they are buyers.

One of the best trades I made this year was a long position I put on 7/13 at 881.50. I am out of that trade at this point.

Now we are in that same range, and the commercials have their largest short position in history so I am bearish again, pretty simple. I did use the word bubble last week in here for this market, but I believe that is the first time I have ever used that word, not 100% sure about that.

In my blog you will also not something that I do that virtually nobody in here does, admit when I am wrong. I have done it recently on a couple of things. If you want to attack my views, please just do it accurately.

I have said bubble this time, so if we do not make a top by Mid to the end of October, I would have to say I am wrong about this. It just seems hard for me to believe that even that big hitters like 4plex have the billions required to overcome all the large commercial players selling right here. That is what it will take to hold it up here. Only individuals are buying here so in the past that has been a reciple for large declines. If you just pull up a chart, and I will put one on my blog today, you can see that when small speculators have been heavily long, tops have occured in this market.

Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.

This is why I am currently bearish on this market.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

C’mon atleast get my comments correct. I was not even participating or had ever heard of this blog when Gold was at $500. If you want to go back and research my comments you will see that I have been bearish mostly when the price has approached $1000. There have been other times as well, whenever the big players become heavy sellers, I usually get bearish, and get bullish when they are buyers.

One of the best trades I made this year was a long position I put on 7/13 at 881.50. I am out of that trade at this point.

Now we are in that same range, and the commercials have their largest short position in history so I am bearish again, pretty simple. I did use the word bubble last week in here for this market, but I believe that is the first time I have ever used that word, not 100% sure about that.

In my blog you will also not something that I do that virtually nobody in here does, admit when I am wrong. I have done it recently on a couple of things. If you want to attack my views, please just do it accurately.

I have said bubble this time, so if we do not make a top by Mid to the end of October, I would have to say I am wrong about this. It just seems hard for me to believe that even that big hitters like 4plex have the billions required to overcome all the large commercial players selling right here. That is what it will take to hold it up here. Only individuals are buying here so in the past that has been a reciple for large declines. If you just pull up a chart, and I will put one on my blog today, you can see that when small speculators have been heavily long, tops have occured in this market.

Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.

This is why I am currently bearish on this market.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

C’mon atleast get my comments correct. I was not even participating or had ever heard of this blog when Gold was at $500. If you want to go back and research my comments you will see that I have been bearish mostly when the price has approached $1000. There have been other times as well, whenever the big players become heavy sellers, I usually get bearish, and get bullish when they are buyers.

One of the best trades I made this year was a long position I put on 7/13 at 881.50. I am out of that trade at this point.

Now we are in that same range, and the commercials have their largest short position in history so I am bearish again, pretty simple. I did use the word bubble last week in here for this market, but I believe that is the first time I have ever used that word, not 100% sure about that.

In my blog you will also not something that I do that virtually nobody in here does, admit when I am wrong. I have done it recently on a couple of things. If you want to attack my views, please just do it accurately.

I have said bubble this time, so if we do not make a top by Mid to the end of October, I would have to say I am wrong about this. It just seems hard for me to believe that even that big hitters like 4plex have the billions required to overcome all the large commercial players selling right here. That is what it will take to hold it up here. Only individuals are buying here so in the past that has been a reciple for large declines. If you just pull up a chart, and I will put one on my blog today, you can see that when small speculators have been heavily long, tops have occured in this market.

Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.

This is why I am currently bearish on this market.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

C’mon atleast get my comments correct. I was not even participating or had ever heard of this blog when Gold was at $500. If you want to go back and research my comments you will see that I have been bearish mostly when the price has approached $1000. There have been other times as well, whenever the big players become heavy sellers, I usually get bearish, and get bullish when they are buyers.

One of the best trades I made this year was a long position I put on 7/13 at 881.50. I am out of that trade at this point.

Now we are in that same range, and the commercials have their largest short position in history so I am bearish again, pretty simple. I did use the word bubble last week in here for this market, but I believe that is the first time I have ever used that word, not 100% sure about that.

In my blog you will also not something that I do that virtually nobody in here does, admit when I am wrong. I have done it recently on a couple of things. If you want to attack my views, please just do it accurately.

I have said bubble this time, so if we do not make a top by Mid to the end of October, I would have to say I am wrong about this. It just seems hard for me to believe that even that big hitters like 4plex have the billions required to overcome all the large commercial players selling right here. That is what it will take to hold it up here. Only individuals are buying here so in the past that has been a reciple for large declines. If you just pull up a chart, and I will put one on my blog today, you can see that when small speculators have been heavily long, tops have occured in this market.

Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.

This is why I am currently bearish on this market.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

C’mon atleast get my comments correct. I was not even participating or had ever heard of this blog when Gold was at $500. If you want to go back and research my comments you will see that I have been bearish mostly when the price has approached $1000. There have been other times as well, whenever the big players become heavy sellers, I usually get bearish, and get bullish when they are buyers.

One of the best trades I made this year was a long position I put on 7/13 at 881.50. I am out of that trade at this point.

Now we are in that same range, and the commercials have their largest short position in history so I am bearish again, pretty simple. I did use the word bubble last week in here for this market, but I believe that is the first time I have ever used that word, not 100% sure about that.

In my blog you will also not something that I do that virtually nobody in here does, admit when I am wrong. I have done it recently on a couple of things. If you want to attack my views, please just do it accurately.

I have said bubble this time, so if we do not make a top by Mid to the end of October, I would have to say I am wrong about this. It just seems hard for me to believe that even that big hitters like 4plex have the billions required to overcome all the large commercial players selling right here. That is what it will take to hold it up here. Only individuals are buying here so in the past that has been a reciple for large declines. If you just pull up a chart, and I will put one on my blog today, you can see that when small speculators have been heavily long, tops have occured in this market.

Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.

This is why I am currently bearish on this market.

[4plexowner]

“Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.”

where in the COT report do the US gold reserves show up?

Russia’s?

the IMF’s?

China’s?

aren’t we talking apples and oranges here?

the COT report shows open interest in the paper markets – foreign countries are buying physical gold and holding it in their hot little hands

what am I missing?

edit: China has recently banned the export of gold and is the 2nd largest producer of gold in the world – how would China increasing their gold reserves, or the Chinese people buying gold for investment, show up on the COT report?

[4plexowner]

“Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.”

where in the COT report do the US gold reserves show up?

Russia’s?

the IMF’s?

China’s?

aren’t we talking apples and oranges here?

the COT report shows open interest in the paper markets – foreign countries are buying physical gold and holding it in their hot little hands

what am I missing?

edit: China has recently banned the export of gold and is the 2nd largest producer of gold in the world – how would China increasing their gold reserves, or the Chinese people buying gold for investment, show up on the COT report?

[4plexowner]

“Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.”

where in the COT report do the US gold reserves show up?

Russia’s?

the IMF’s?

China’s?

aren’t we talking apples and oranges here?

the COT report shows open interest in the paper markets – foreign countries are buying physical gold and holding it in their hot little hands

what am I missing?

edit: China has recently banned the export of gold and is the 2nd largest producer of gold in the world – how would China increasing their gold reserves, or the Chinese people buying gold for investment, show up on the COT report?

[4plexowner]

“Gold bulls are telling people foreign countries are buying Gold and facts are facts, they are not. This would show in the COT report.”

where in the COT report do the US gold reserves show up?

Russia’s?

the IMF’s?

China’s?

aren’t we talking apples and oranges here?

the COT report shows open interest in the paper markets – foreign countries are buying physical gold and holding it in their hot little hands

what am I missing?

edit: China has recently banned the export of gold and is the 2nd largest producer of gold in the world – how would China increasing their gold reserves, or the Chinese people buying gold for investment, show up on the COT report?

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