FYI: Current “deal” in Derby Hills, Carmel Valley

[Coronita]

I'm reading these comments with great interest since we're a block away over in Saratoga. It's odd though, that noone seems to mention these homes in any of the forums. Noone is considering their value when calculating the worth of a DH. Is it because they are almost all situated on the main road or is there some other reason?

And what about those Saratogas with oversized lots that sold for 1 mil plus. Don't they insulate the price of a DH further from an older comp (Belmont?)

 

With all due respect. I feel Saratoga were all overpriced. These homes I believe are roughly 2400-2800 sqft. Most of these units do not have a view, and most are not north/south facing. Saratoga's comparables are not the likes of DH, Belmont, etc. The more comparables are complexes in Torrey Hills including Sands, Shores, Sansonet. I would even venture Sea Ridge and the complex behind Sea Ridge would be comparable (Sea Ridge homes i feel are nicer, but get dinged for being so close to power lines). I wouldn't consider them also comparable to La Strada and Montecito (as these two complexes are problem 1 step above Saratoga and the Shores/Sands/Sansonet complexes but below DH , Belmont, Breakers,etc..

Either way, several of these homes (Shores Sands Sansonets) in Torrey Hills not only have views, but sliver of ocean view, with the ocean breeze. As such, these homes are currently in the $800-$950 range. So I would say Saratoga probably is around this range too. And that's current prices. I would expect that these homes would fall moving forward. People who live in these homes generally aren't as immune to a contraction, and I would even venture probably depend more on a loan than those that spend in the high end.

Over 1 million for saratoga was just plan nuts imho. Because if you walk inside a saratoga and go to one of the comparables, it's about the same ceiling height, same floor plan, same sqft. If you add on top of that and additional $100k in landscape, it's out of the price range of the comparables. Also, I believe both DH and Saratoga have $100-$200/month HOA, as compared to the Torrey Hills side, which is like $20/month. That's a lot imho.

Also, one possible selling point was access to Sage Canyon elementary. But it's to my understanding that residence in the new Pardee communities will not be going to Sage Canyon, but to the new elementary behind the Montecito complex. Not that it really matters. All public elementaries in CV are pretty good (the difference between #1 and anything else is probably made up by the variance in parental involvement).

That said, if you enjoy living an a brand new home, and aren't really trying to make money off of it, who really cares what people say are think, or what the actual house value is?

[Coronita]

I'm reading these comments with great interest since we're a block away over in Saratoga. It's odd though, that noone seems to mention these homes in any of the forums. Noone is considering their value when calculating the worth of a DH. Is it because they are almost all situated on the main road or is there some other reason?

And what about those Saratogas with oversized lots that sold for 1 mil plus. Don't they insulate the price of a DH further from an older comp (Belmont?)

 

With all due respect. I feel Saratoga were all overpriced. These homes I believe are roughly 2400-2800 sqft. Most of these units do not have a view, and most are not north/south facing. Saratoga's comparables are not the likes of DH, Belmont, etc. The more comparables are complexes in Torrey Hills including Sands, Shores, Sansonet. I would even venture Sea Ridge and the complex behind Sea Ridge would be comparable (Sea Ridge homes i feel are nicer, but get dinged for being so close to power lines). I wouldn't consider them also comparable to La Strada and Montecito (as these two complexes are problem 1 step above Saratoga and the Shores/Sands/Sansonet complexes but below DH , Belmont, Breakers,etc..

Either way, several of these homes (Shores Sands Sansonets) in Torrey Hills not only have views, but sliver of ocean view, with the ocean breeze. As such, these homes are currently in the $800-$950 range. So I would say Saratoga probably is around this range too. And that's current prices. I would expect that these homes would fall moving forward. People who live in these homes generally aren't as immune to a contraction, and I would even venture probably depend more on a loan than those that spend in the high end.

Over 1 million for saratoga was just plan nuts imho. Because if you walk inside a saratoga and go to one of the comparables, it's about the same ceiling height, same floor plan, same sqft. If you add on top of that and additional $100k in landscape, it's out of the price range of the comparables. Also, I believe both DH and Saratoga have $100-$200/month HOA, as compared to the Torrey Hills side, which is like $20/month. That's a lot imho.

Also, one possible selling point was access to Sage Canyon elementary. But it's to my understanding that residence in the new Pardee communities will not be going to Sage Canyon, but to the new elementary behind the Montecito complex. Not that it really matters. All public elementaries in CV are pretty good (the difference between #1 and anything else is probably made up by the variance in parental involvement).

That said, if you enjoy living an a brand new home, and aren't really trying to make money off of it, who really cares what people say are think, or what the actual house value is?

[Coronita]

I'm reading these comments with great interest since we're a block away over in Saratoga. It's odd though, that noone seems to mention these homes in any of the forums. Noone is considering their value when calculating the worth of a DH. Is it because they are almost all situated on the main road or is there some other reason?

And what about those Saratogas with oversized lots that sold for 1 mil plus. Don't they insulate the price of a DH further from an older comp (Belmont?)

 

With all due respect. I feel Saratoga were all overpriced. These homes I believe are roughly 2400-2800 sqft. Most of these units do not have a view, and most are not north/south facing. Saratoga's comparables are not the likes of DH, Belmont, etc. The more comparables are complexes in Torrey Hills including Sands, Shores, Sansonet. I would even venture Sea Ridge and the complex behind Sea Ridge would be comparable (Sea Ridge homes i feel are nicer, but get dinged for being so close to power lines). I wouldn't consider them also comparable to La Strada and Montecito (as these two complexes are problem 1 step above Saratoga and the Shores/Sands/Sansonet complexes but below DH , Belmont, Breakers,etc..

Either way, several of these homes (Shores Sands Sansonets) in Torrey Hills not only have views, but sliver of ocean view, with the ocean breeze. As such, these homes are currently in the $800-$950 range. So I would say Saratoga probably is around this range too. And that's current prices. I would expect that these homes would fall moving forward. People who live in these homes generally aren't as immune to a contraction, and I would even venture probably depend more on a loan than those that spend in the high end.

Over 1 million for saratoga was just plan nuts imho. Because if you walk inside a saratoga and go to one of the comparables, it's about the same ceiling height, same floor plan, same sqft. If you add on top of that and additional $100k in landscape, it's out of the price range of the comparables. Also, I believe both DH and Saratoga have $100-$200/month HOA, as compared to the Torrey Hills side, which is like $20/month. That's a lot imho.

Also, one possible selling point was access to Sage Canyon elementary. But it's to my understanding that residence in the new Pardee communities will not be going to Sage Canyon, but to the new elementary behind the Montecito complex. Not that it really matters. All public elementaries in CV are pretty good (the difference between #1 and anything else is probably made up by the variance in parental involvement).

That said, if you enjoy living an a brand new home, and aren't really trying to make money off of it, who really cares what people say are think, or what the actual house value is?

[[email protected]]

A FSBO just came up in Saratoga. It’s a 3 bedroom Plan 3 (the largest) for $1.175. It’s on a 10,000 sq ft lot but it does back up to Carmel Mountain. It would be a nice comp for the neighborhood if it sells for that.

I think Saratoga and Derby Hill have a big edge over Belmont and Lexington because of their newness. I’ve seen a lot of open houses in Belmont and Lexington and most of them looked tired already – even a few years makes a house dated compared to the new. I think newer sells for a higher premium than most people realize.

Derby Hill continues to sell and sell. There are only three houses available right now with 7/08 completion dates. The Plan 3 I was considering last week sold before I could make up my mind.

Anybody know if the house on Harvest Run closed and what price it closed for?

[[email protected]]

A FSBO just came up in Saratoga. It’s a 3 bedroom Plan 3 (the largest) for $1.175. It’s on a 10,000 sq ft lot but it does back up to Carmel Mountain. It would be a nice comp for the neighborhood if it sells for that.

I think Saratoga and Derby Hill have a big edge over Belmont and Lexington because of their newness. I’ve seen a lot of open houses in Belmont and Lexington and most of them looked tired already – even a few years makes a house dated compared to the new. I think newer sells for a higher premium than most people realize.

Derby Hill continues to sell and sell. There are only three houses available right now with 7/08 completion dates. The Plan 3 I was considering last week sold before I could make up my mind.

Anybody know if the house on Harvest Run closed and what price it closed for?

[[email protected]]

A FSBO just came up in Saratoga. It’s a 3 bedroom Plan 3 (the largest) for $1.175. It’s on a 10,000 sq ft lot but it does back up to Carmel Mountain. It would be a nice comp for the neighborhood if it sells for that.

I think Saratoga and Derby Hill have a big edge over Belmont and Lexington because of their newness. I’ve seen a lot of open houses in Belmont and Lexington and most of them looked tired already – even a few years makes a house dated compared to the new. I think newer sells for a higher premium than most people realize.

Derby Hill continues to sell and sell. There are only three houses available right now with 7/08 completion dates. The Plan 3 I was considering last week sold before I could make up my mind.

Anybody know if the house on Harvest Run closed and what price it closed for?

[[email protected]]

A FSBO just came up in Saratoga. It’s a 3 bedroom Plan 3 (the largest) for $1.175. It’s on a 10,000 sq ft lot but it does back up to Carmel Mountain. It would be a nice comp for the neighborhood if it sells for that.

I think Saratoga and Derby Hill have a big edge over Belmont and Lexington because of their newness. I’ve seen a lot of open houses in Belmont and Lexington and most of them looked tired already – even a few years makes a house dated compared to the new. I think newer sells for a higher premium than most people realize.

Derby Hill continues to sell and sell. There are only three houses available right now with 7/08 completion dates. The Plan 3 I was considering last week sold before I could make up my mind.

Anybody know if the house on Harvest Run closed and what price it closed for?

[[email protected]]

A FSBO just came up in Saratoga. It’s a 3 bedroom Plan 3 (the largest) for $1.175. It’s on a 10,000 sq ft lot but it does back up to Carmel Mountain. It would be a nice comp for the neighborhood if it sells for that.

I think Saratoga and Derby Hill have a big edge over Belmont and Lexington because of their newness. I’ve seen a lot of open houses in Belmont and Lexington and most of them looked tired already – even a few years makes a house dated compared to the new. I think newer sells for a higher premium than most people realize.

Derby Hill continues to sell and sell. There are only three houses available right now with 7/08 completion dates. The Plan 3 I was considering last week sold before I could make up my mind.

Anybody know if the house on Harvest Run closed and what price it closed for?

[Coronita]

A FSBO just came up in Saratoga. It's a 3 bedroom Plan 3 (the largest) for $1.175. It's on a 10,000 sq ft lot but it does back up to Carmel Mountain. It would be a nice comp for the neighborhood if it sells for that.

I think Saratoga and Derby Hill have a big edge over Belmont and Lexington because of their newness. I've seen a lot of open houses in Belmont and Lexington and most of them looked tired already – even a few years makes a house dated compared to the new. I think newer sells for a higher premium than most people realize.

Derby Hill continues to sell and sell. There are only three houses available right now with 7/08 completion dates. The Plan 3 I was considering last week sold before I could make up my mind.

Anybody know if the house on Harvest Run closed and what price it closed for?

 

Good luck for 1.175 million at Saratoga in today's market. Again, if you went into Saratoga, and compare that to things that La Estrada, Sea Country, it's a world of difference. Buyer would first notice that saratoga has low ceiling, the likes of the Shores, Sannoset, etc. It's just different. Anyway, not trying to debate here, because there are knife catchers. But if you check out the mls listings on say houserebate.com, and do a search on 92130, you'll notice there a a flood of SFH right now in the 1-1.2 million range that offer much more than the larget saratoga unit. When it comes to upgrades, there a limit in how much you can carry that into a selling cost. Simply because the first thing people like to do when they move in is remodel.

For example, I'd purchase

http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1684669&p3=-1&ix=178

High ceiling ,close to Torrey Hills Park, away from the power lines away from the cell phone tower. Close to 3000sqft (I believe that's larger than most Saratoga units) and some with a canyon view. Also, nice HOA of $17/month as opposed to $100-$200.

And oh my, have prices fallen.

 

Can't speak for DH. But again, comparables like Lexington are listed near or at what the asking of plan 3 DH.

 

[Coronita]

A FSBO just came up in Saratoga. It's a 3 bedroom Plan 3 (the largest) for $1.175. It's on a 10,000 sq ft lot but it does back up to Carmel Mountain. It would be a nice comp for the neighborhood if it sells for that.

I think Saratoga and Derby Hill have a big edge over Belmont and Lexington because of their newness. I've seen a lot of open houses in Belmont and Lexington and most of them looked tired already – even a few years makes a house dated compared to the new. I think newer sells for a higher premium than most people realize.

Derby Hill continues to sell and sell. There are only three houses available right now with 7/08 completion dates. The Plan 3 I was considering last week sold before I could make up my mind.

Anybody know if the house on Harvest Run closed and what price it closed for?

 

Good luck for 1.175 million at Saratoga in today's market. Again, if you went into Saratoga, and compare that to things that La Estrada, Sea Country, it's a world of difference. Buyer would first notice that saratoga has low ceiling, the likes of the Shores, Sannoset, etc. It's just different. Anyway, not trying to debate here, because there are knife catchers. But if you check out the mls listings on say houserebate.com, and do a search on 92130, you'll notice there a a flood of SFH right now in the 1-1.2 million range that offer much more than the larget saratoga unit. When it comes to upgrades, there a limit in how much you can carry that into a selling cost. Simply because the first thing people like to do when they move in is remodel.

For example, I'd purchase

http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1684669&p3=-1&ix=178

High ceiling ,close to Torrey Hills Park, away from the power lines away from the cell phone tower. Close to 3000sqft (I believe that's larger than most Saratoga units) and some with a canyon view. Also, nice HOA of $17/month as opposed to $100-$200.

And oh my, have prices fallen.

 

Can't speak for DH. But again, comparables like Lexington are listed near or at what the asking of plan 3 DH.

 

[Coronita]

A FSBO just came up in Saratoga. It's a 3 bedroom Plan 3 (the largest) for $1.175. It's on a 10,000 sq ft lot but it does back up to Carmel Mountain. It would be a nice comp for the neighborhood if it sells for that.

I think Saratoga and Derby Hill have a big edge over Belmont and Lexington because of their newness. I've seen a lot of open houses in Belmont and Lexington and most of them looked tired already – even a few years makes a house dated compared to the new. I think newer sells for a higher premium than most people realize.

Derby Hill continues to sell and sell. There are only three houses available right now with 7/08 completion dates. The Plan 3 I was considering last week sold before I could make up my mind.

Anybody know if the house on Harvest Run closed and what price it closed for?

 

Good luck for 1.175 million at Saratoga in today's market. Again, if you went into Saratoga, and compare that to things that La Estrada, Sea Country, it's a world of difference. Buyer would first notice that saratoga has low ceiling, the likes of the Shores, Sannoset, etc. It's just different. Anyway, not trying to debate here, because there are knife catchers. But if you check out the mls listings on say houserebate.com, and do a search on 92130, you'll notice there a a flood of SFH right now in the 1-1.2 million range that offer much more than the larget saratoga unit. When it comes to upgrades, there a limit in how much you can carry that into a selling cost. Simply because the first thing people like to do when they move in is remodel.

For example, I'd purchase

http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1684669&p3=-1&ix=178

High ceiling ,close to Torrey Hills Park, away from the power lines away from the cell phone tower. Close to 3000sqft (I believe that's larger than most Saratoga units) and some with a canyon view. Also, nice HOA of $17/month as opposed to $100-$200.

And oh my, have prices fallen.

 

Can't speak for DH. But again, comparables like Lexington are listed near or at what the asking of plan 3 DH.

 

[Coronita]

A FSBO just came up in Saratoga. It's a 3 bedroom Plan 3 (the largest) for $1.175. It's on a 10,000 sq ft lot but it does back up to Carmel Mountain. It would be a nice comp for the neighborhood if it sells for that.

I think Saratoga and Derby Hill have a big edge over Belmont and Lexington because of their newness. I've seen a lot of open houses in Belmont and Lexington and most of them looked tired already – even a few years makes a house dated compared to the new. I think newer sells for a higher premium than most people realize.

Derby Hill continues to sell and sell. There are only three houses available right now with 7/08 completion dates. The Plan 3 I was considering last week sold before I could make up my mind.

Anybody know if the house on Harvest Run closed and what price it closed for?

 

Good luck for 1.175 million at Saratoga in today's market. Again, if you went into Saratoga, and compare that to things that La Estrada, Sea Country, it's a world of difference. Buyer would first notice that saratoga has low ceiling, the likes of the Shores, Sannoset, etc. It's just different. Anyway, not trying to debate here, because there are knife catchers. But if you check out the mls listings on say houserebate.com, and do a search on 92130, you'll notice there a a flood of SFH right now in the 1-1.2 million range that offer much more than the larget saratoga unit. When it comes to upgrades, there a limit in how much you can carry that into a selling cost. Simply because the first thing people like to do when they move in is remodel.

For example, I'd purchase

http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1684669&p3=-1&ix=178

High ceiling ,close to Torrey Hills Park, away from the power lines away from the cell phone tower. Close to 3000sqft (I believe that's larger than most Saratoga units) and some with a canyon view. Also, nice HOA of $17/month as opposed to $100-$200.

And oh my, have prices fallen.

 

Can't speak for DH. But again, comparables like Lexington are listed near or at what the asking of plan 3 DH.

 

[Coronita]

A FSBO just came up in Saratoga. It's a 3 bedroom Plan 3 (the largest) for $1.175. It's on a 10,000 sq ft lot but it does back up to Carmel Mountain. It would be a nice comp for the neighborhood if it sells for that.

I think Saratoga and Derby Hill have a big edge over Belmont and Lexington because of their newness. I've seen a lot of open houses in Belmont and Lexington and most of them looked tired already – even a few years makes a house dated compared to the new. I think newer sells for a higher premium than most people realize.

Derby Hill continues to sell and sell. There are only three houses available right now with 7/08 completion dates. The Plan 3 I was considering last week sold before I could make up my mind.

Anybody know if the house on Harvest Run closed and what price it closed for?

 

Good luck for 1.175 million at Saratoga in today's market. Again, if you went into Saratoga, and compare that to things that La Estrada, Sea Country, it's a world of difference. Buyer would first notice that saratoga has low ceiling, the likes of the Shores, Sannoset, etc. It's just different. Anyway, not trying to debate here, because there are knife catchers. But if you check out the mls listings on say houserebate.com, and do a search on 92130, you'll notice there a a flood of SFH right now in the 1-1.2 million range that offer much more than the larget saratoga unit. When it comes to upgrades, there a limit in how much you can carry that into a selling cost. Simply because the first thing people like to do when they move in is remodel.

For example, I'd purchase

http://sandiego.houserebate.com/search/homeview.asp?id=1684669&p3=-1&ix=178

High ceiling ,close to Torrey Hills Park, away from the power lines away from the cell phone tower. Close to 3000sqft (I believe that's larger than most Saratoga units) and some with a canyon view. Also, nice HOA of $17/month as opposed to $100-$200.

And oh my, have prices fallen.

 

Can't speak for DH. But again, comparables like Lexington are listed near or at what the asking of plan 3 DH.

 

[raptorduck]

Almost $1.2 million for what appears to be a 3BR 2,400-2,800 sf house in CV seems way overpriced in this market IMHO.

I lived in CV up to about 8 yrs ago. Although I am moving back to SD in ’08 or ’09, I now live in the Bay Area (San Jose) in one of the few semi-gated neighborhoods up here this very CV like, in that I live in a Spanish tile roofed Mediteranian tract home that and it is just under 2,600sf, about the same size as that FSBO Saratoga home, except that mine is 4BR, but my lot is about 1/2 that size. Although my house was worth $1.2 million not that long ago, it is now worth about $1 million. But this is the “uberexpensive” bay area, where the price per square foot of homes run anywhere from 1.5-2 times as much as San Diego. So on that basis, that Saratoga home should be selling for around $800k.

Even ignoring that, based on what I know about CV prices (granted I have only recently looked at homes in Del Mar Meadows, Del Mar Mesa, and Grand Del Mar, but I have noticed closing sales in CV generally), that house should be listing for between $800,000-$900,000 depending if it is on the low or high end of that range.

The only other tidbit I can provide is a Lexington house (the name of the model) that was a cul-de-sac model home off 56 just up the hill accross from Meadows Del Mar (off Carmel Country road). I looked at possibly buying that house way back in 1999 when I lived in CV. It was just under 5,000 sf 5BR with a great hill top view. It was selling for $700,000-$800,000. Everytime my wife and I have visited SD since then, we have looked at home prices and toured new development model homes, primiarly in CV and Del Mar just for fun to see if we would move back (we added RSF this year). That Lexington model house was for sale back in 2005 (August) for around $2 million. If you assume that the CV market has dropped 10% since that peak in 2005, then that house should be worth $1.8 million or so. And at that price, this Saratoga home should be in that $800k-$900k range.

Incidentally, thanks to Zillow, I can check my recollections and estimates above with their data on that same Lexington house. Zillow says the value of that home peaked in mid 2006 at $2.2 million. The current Zestimate for that house is $1.5 million, which suggests a price for that Saratoga FSBO more in the range of $700k-$800k depending on where it falls in that size range. I do realize that Zillow #’s are always very suspect.

Either way, a short point made very long, that Saratoga home is way overpriced at almost $1.2 million IMHO and an informed buyer should not pay more than $800k for it.

[raptorduck]

Almost $1.2 million for what appears to be a 3BR 2,400-2,800 sf house in CV seems way overpriced in this market IMHO.

I lived in CV up to about 8 yrs ago. Although I am moving back to SD in ’08 or ’09, I now live in the Bay Area (San Jose) in one of the few semi-gated neighborhoods up here this very CV like, in that I live in a Spanish tile roofed Mediteranian tract home that and it is just under 2,600sf, about the same size as that FSBO Saratoga home, except that mine is 4BR, but my lot is about 1/2 that size. Although my house was worth $1.2 million not that long ago, it is now worth about $1 million. But this is the “uberexpensive” bay area, where the price per square foot of homes run anywhere from 1.5-2 times as much as San Diego. So on that basis, that Saratoga home should be selling for around $800k.

Even ignoring that, based on what I know about CV prices (granted I have only recently looked at homes in Del Mar Meadows, Del Mar Mesa, and Grand Del Mar, but I have noticed closing sales in CV generally), that house should be listing for between $800,000-$900,000 depending if it is on the low or high end of that range.

The only other tidbit I can provide is a Lexington house (the name of the model) that was a cul-de-sac model home off 56 just up the hill accross from Meadows Del Mar (off Carmel Country road). I looked at possibly buying that house way back in 1999 when I lived in CV. It was just under 5,000 sf 5BR with a great hill top view. It was selling for $700,000-$800,000. Everytime my wife and I have visited SD since then, we have looked at home prices and toured new development model homes, primiarly in CV and Del Mar just for fun to see if we would move back (we added RSF this year). That Lexington model house was for sale back in 2005 (August) for around $2 million. If you assume that the CV market has dropped 10% since that peak in 2005, then that house should be worth $1.8 million or so. And at that price, this Saratoga home should be in that $800k-$900k range.

Incidentally, thanks to Zillow, I can check my recollections and estimates above with their data on that same Lexington house. Zillow says the value of that home peaked in mid 2006 at $2.2 million. The current Zestimate for that house is $1.5 million, which suggests a price for that Saratoga FSBO more in the range of $700k-$800k depending on where it falls in that size range. I do realize that Zillow #’s are always very suspect.

Either way, a short point made very long, that Saratoga home is way overpriced at almost $1.2 million IMHO and an informed buyer should not pay more than $800k for it.

[Author]

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