For those of you not following. The Shanghai index is at a 52week low, down 49.2% from peak

[DaCounselor]

China’s market was well overbought by ’07. Were there really people here on pigginton hyping the days of the 6K index as a good time to jump into China? While staring the face of overt Chinese gov’t tightening measures?

I’m still not in love with China even after the tremendous devaluation of its market but I am at least now paying attention to a few indices and will eventually get into China if there is a bit more downward movement. If Jim Rogers is right, it’s China and commodities moving forward.

[paranoid]

Chinese investors are in the process of capitulation. i think the intermediate term bottom will be around 2900 to 3000 for the shanghai index. so i’m going to increase my investment once it touches below 3000.

[paranoid]

Chinese investors are in the process of capitulation. i think the intermediate term bottom will be around 2900 to 3000 for the shanghai index. so i’m going to increase my investment once it touches below 3000.

[paranoid]

Chinese investors are in the process of capitulation. i think the intermediate term bottom will be around 2900 to 3000 for the shanghai index. so i’m going to increase my investment once it touches below 3000.

[paranoid]

Chinese investors are in the process of capitulation. i think the intermediate term bottom will be around 2900 to 3000 for the shanghai index. so i’m going to increase my investment once it touches below 3000.

[paranoid]

Chinese investors are in the process of capitulation. i think the intermediate term bottom will be around 2900 to 3000 for the shanghai index. so i’m going to increase my investment once it touches below 3000.

[Anonymous]

Not sure on the stock markets….but i can offer this….Chinese manufacuturing has already turned the corner. I’ve worked in Asia for 15 years now and i can guarantee this….China is now experiencing what South Korea and Taiwan did in the 1980s….China manufacturing is becomming a victim of its own success.

My company, every company i know, and work with, are looking for ways to unwind, exit, or at the very least hedge their Chinese manufacturing positions. Costs are spiraling up 20-25% per year (granted from a very low base), and that is without the currency stregenthing, add that in and it is crushing. Government labor laws are strenghening, labor turnover is amazingly high…ive personally seen 40-50% turnover per year at every level of managment and direct labor. So high, that I know one guy who after 3 years had THE longest service term of anyone at the 1,200 person factory.

And all this from a country with the mentality to take any business at even the razor thinnest of margins. In the late ’90s i remember hearing the phrase often “the Chinese never, ever, lose a contract because of price”

Please dont mistake my post. China is still the world’s factory. When i was a kid “Made in Japan” was emblossed on No.2 pencils for our standardized tests….that thought today is laughable…we see “Made in China” on everything and we’ll see it for a long time to come.

Tounge-in-cheek example, back in they day if China wanted to run a typwriter, they could hire 26 people where each person’s job was to only hit one letter. Today, they’re going to have to figure out a different way. It really strains their mindset and systems. They definitely dont think and operate the same way as western companies. To continue their success, they’ll have to morph into something different than they are today.

China is going through a big trasition. They can no longer compete on price and throw people at the problem. Burma, Vietnam, Bangladesh even Cambodia and economic zones in North Korea are picking up conracts that 12 months ago would have been mailed drectly to China without even being put out for bid.

China will be successful, they do quite a few things very well. They are very clever and industrious and like the Japanese from the 70s, the Chinese are going to have to figure out how compete without the luxury of ‘cheap’ and unlike Taiwan and Singapre, the Chinese are simply too big to stand on the shoulders of giants.

Just food for thought for everyone from a guy with feet-on-the-street in the region. It is really interesting to see it play out. It isnt a 100% guarantee that they can make the jump….in 10 years will they be Japan? or Russia? From everything i’ve seen, im putting slightly heavier odds on Russia.

Jasper

[Anonymous]

Not sure on the stock markets….but i can offer this….Chinese manufacuturing has already turned the corner. I’ve worked in Asia for 15 years now and i can guarantee this….China is now experiencing what South Korea and Taiwan did in the 1980s….China manufacturing is becomming a victim of its own success.

My company, every company i know, and work with, are looking for ways to unwind, exit, or at the very least hedge their Chinese manufacturing positions. Costs are spiraling up 20-25% per year (granted from a very low base), and that is without the currency stregenthing, add that in and it is crushing. Government labor laws are strenghening, labor turnover is amazingly high…ive personally seen 40-50% turnover per year at every level of managment and direct labor. So high, that I know one guy who after 3 years had THE longest service term of anyone at the 1,200 person factory.

And all this from a country with the mentality to take any business at even the razor thinnest of margins. In the late ’90s i remember hearing the phrase often “the Chinese never, ever, lose a contract because of price”

Please dont mistake my post. China is still the world’s factory. When i was a kid “Made in Japan” was emblossed on No.2 pencils for our standardized tests….that thought today is laughable…we see “Made in China” on everything and we’ll see it for a long time to come.

Tounge-in-cheek example, back in they day if China wanted to run a typwriter, they could hire 26 people where each person’s job was to only hit one letter. Today, they’re going to have to figure out a different way. It really strains their mindset and systems. They definitely dont think and operate the same way as western companies. To continue their success, they’ll have to morph into something different than they are today.

China is going through a big trasition. They can no longer compete on price and throw people at the problem. Burma, Vietnam, Bangladesh even Cambodia and economic zones in North Korea are picking up conracts that 12 months ago would have been mailed drectly to China without even being put out for bid.

China will be successful, they do quite a few things very well. They are very clever and industrious and like the Japanese from the 70s, the Chinese are going to have to figure out how compete without the luxury of ‘cheap’ and unlike Taiwan and Singapre, the Chinese are simply too big to stand on the shoulders of giants.

Just food for thought for everyone from a guy with feet-on-the-street in the region. It is really interesting to see it play out. It isnt a 100% guarantee that they can make the jump….in 10 years will they be Japan? or Russia? From everything i’ve seen, im putting slightly heavier odds on Russia.

Jasper

[Anonymous]

Not sure on the stock markets….but i can offer this….Chinese manufacuturing has already turned the corner. I’ve worked in Asia for 15 years now and i can guarantee this….China is now experiencing what South Korea and Taiwan did in the 1980s….China manufacturing is becomming a victim of its own success.

My company, every company i know, and work with, are looking for ways to unwind, exit, or at the very least hedge their Chinese manufacturing positions. Costs are spiraling up 20-25% per year (granted from a very low base), and that is without the currency stregenthing, add that in and it is crushing. Government labor laws are strenghening, labor turnover is amazingly high…ive personally seen 40-50% turnover per year at every level of managment and direct labor. So high, that I know one guy who after 3 years had THE longest service term of anyone at the 1,200 person factory.

And all this from a country with the mentality to take any business at even the razor thinnest of margins. In the late ’90s i remember hearing the phrase often “the Chinese never, ever, lose a contract because of price”

Please dont mistake my post. China is still the world’s factory. When i was a kid “Made in Japan” was emblossed on No.2 pencils for our standardized tests….that thought today is laughable…we see “Made in China” on everything and we’ll see it for a long time to come.

Tounge-in-cheek example, back in they day if China wanted to run a typwriter, they could hire 26 people where each person’s job was to only hit one letter. Today, they’re going to have to figure out a different way. It really strains their mindset and systems. They definitely dont think and operate the same way as western companies. To continue their success, they’ll have to morph into something different than they are today.

China is going through a big trasition. They can no longer compete on price and throw people at the problem. Burma, Vietnam, Bangladesh even Cambodia and economic zones in North Korea are picking up conracts that 12 months ago would have been mailed drectly to China without even being put out for bid.

China will be successful, they do quite a few things very well. They are very clever and industrious and like the Japanese from the 70s, the Chinese are going to have to figure out how compete without the luxury of ‘cheap’ and unlike Taiwan and Singapre, the Chinese are simply too big to stand on the shoulders of giants.

Just food for thought for everyone from a guy with feet-on-the-street in the region. It is really interesting to see it play out. It isnt a 100% guarantee that they can make the jump….in 10 years will they be Japan? or Russia? From everything i’ve seen, im putting slightly heavier odds on Russia.

Jasper

[Anonymous]

Not sure on the stock markets….but i can offer this….Chinese manufacuturing has already turned the corner. I’ve worked in Asia for 15 years now and i can guarantee this….China is now experiencing what South Korea and Taiwan did in the 1980s….China manufacturing is becomming a victim of its own success.

My company, every company i know, and work with, are looking for ways to unwind, exit, or at the very least hedge their Chinese manufacturing positions. Costs are spiraling up 20-25% per year (granted from a very low base), and that is without the currency stregenthing, add that in and it is crushing. Government labor laws are strenghening, labor turnover is amazingly high…ive personally seen 40-50% turnover per year at every level of managment and direct labor. So high, that I know one guy who after 3 years had THE longest service term of anyone at the 1,200 person factory.

And all this from a country with the mentality to take any business at even the razor thinnest of margins. In the late ’90s i remember hearing the phrase often “the Chinese never, ever, lose a contract because of price”

Please dont mistake my post. China is still the world’s factory. When i was a kid “Made in Japan” was emblossed on No.2 pencils for our standardized tests….that thought today is laughable…we see “Made in China” on everything and we’ll see it for a long time to come.

Tounge-in-cheek example, back in they day if China wanted to run a typwriter, they could hire 26 people where each person’s job was to only hit one letter. Today, they’re going to have to figure out a different way. It really strains their mindset and systems. They definitely dont think and operate the same way as western companies. To continue their success, they’ll have to morph into something different than they are today.

China is going through a big trasition. They can no longer compete on price and throw people at the problem. Burma, Vietnam, Bangladesh even Cambodia and economic zones in North Korea are picking up conracts that 12 months ago would have been mailed drectly to China without even being put out for bid.

China will be successful, they do quite a few things very well. They are very clever and industrious and like the Japanese from the 70s, the Chinese are going to have to figure out how compete without the luxury of ‘cheap’ and unlike Taiwan and Singapre, the Chinese are simply too big to stand on the shoulders of giants.

Just food for thought for everyone from a guy with feet-on-the-street in the region. It is really interesting to see it play out. It isnt a 100% guarantee that they can make the jump….in 10 years will they be Japan? or Russia? From everything i’ve seen, im putting slightly heavier odds on Russia.

Jasper

[Anonymous]

Not sure on the stock markets….but i can offer this….Chinese manufacuturing has already turned the corner. I’ve worked in Asia for 15 years now and i can guarantee this….China is now experiencing what South Korea and Taiwan did in the 1980s….China manufacturing is becomming a victim of its own success.

My company, every company i know, and work with, are looking for ways to unwind, exit, or at the very least hedge their Chinese manufacturing positions. Costs are spiraling up 20-25% per year (granted from a very low base), and that is without the currency stregenthing, add that in and it is crushing. Government labor laws are strenghening, labor turnover is amazingly high…ive personally seen 40-50% turnover per year at every level of managment and direct labor. So high, that I know one guy who after 3 years had THE longest service term of anyone at the 1,200 person factory.

And all this from a country with the mentality to take any business at even the razor thinnest of margins. In the late ’90s i remember hearing the phrase often “the Chinese never, ever, lose a contract because of price”

Please dont mistake my post. China is still the world’s factory. When i was a kid “Made in Japan” was emblossed on No.2 pencils for our standardized tests….that thought today is laughable…we see “Made in China” on everything and we’ll see it for a long time to come.

Tounge-in-cheek example, back in they day if China wanted to run a typwriter, they could hire 26 people where each person’s job was to only hit one letter. Today, they’re going to have to figure out a different way. It really strains their mindset and systems. They definitely dont think and operate the same way as western companies. To continue their success, they’ll have to morph into something different than they are today.

China is going through a big trasition. They can no longer compete on price and throw people at the problem. Burma, Vietnam, Bangladesh even Cambodia and economic zones in North Korea are picking up conracts that 12 months ago would have been mailed drectly to China without even being put out for bid.

China will be successful, they do quite a few things very well. They are very clever and industrious and like the Japanese from the 70s, the Chinese are going to have to figure out how compete without the luxury of ‘cheap’ and unlike Taiwan and Singapre, the Chinese are simply too big to stand on the shoulders of giants.

Just food for thought for everyone from a guy with feet-on-the-street in the region. It is really interesting to see it play out. It isnt a 100% guarantee that they can make the jump….in 10 years will they be Japan? or Russia? From everything i’ve seen, im putting slightly heavier odds on Russia.

Jasper

[paranoid]

“paranoid on April 18, 2008 – 10:52pm.
Chinese investors are in the process of capitulation. i think the intermediate term bottom will be around 2900 to 3000 for the shanghai index. so i’m going to increase my investment once it touches below 3000.”

My call on this one is pretty good. the shanghai index touched 2990 on april 22, and turned around since, and has gained more than 23% in 6 trading days.

[paranoid]

“paranoid on April 18, 2008 – 10:52pm.
Chinese investors are in the process of capitulation. i think the intermediate term bottom will be around 2900 to 3000 for the shanghai index. so i’m going to increase my investment once it touches below 3000.”

My call on this one is pretty good. the shanghai index touched 2990 on april 22, and turned around since, and has gained more than 23% in 6 trading days.

[paranoid]

“paranoid on April 18, 2008 – 10:52pm.
Chinese investors are in the process of capitulation. i think the intermediate term bottom will be around 2900 to 3000 for the shanghai index. so i’m going to increase my investment once it touches below 3000.”

My call on this one is pretty good. the shanghai index touched 2990 on april 22, and turned around since, and has gained more than 23% in 6 trading days.

[paranoid]

“paranoid on April 18, 2008 – 10:52pm.
Chinese investors are in the process of capitulation. i think the intermediate term bottom will be around 2900 to 3000 for the shanghai index. so i’m going to increase my investment once it touches below 3000.”

My call on this one is pretty good. the shanghai index touched 2990 on april 22, and turned around since, and has gained more than 23% in 6 trading days.

[Author]

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