FLU strikes out again in CarmelV.

[bearishgurl]

Why don’t y’all “prospective investors” go take a look at the southwest corner of Santee? It has pretty decent schools and is a little more expensive than Chula V for the same type house (but perhaps a bit newer). I feel the reason is because of its closer proximity to jobs in the Golden Triangle and I-15 corridor. The rents there may very well reflect the higher purchase prices. I don’t know.

I’m sure it doesn’t have a better “quality of life” than (the much cooler) ChulaV but is probably better located for worker-bees.

There were many current short listings there a couple of days ago but here’s some “traditional sale” listings:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130005604-9560_W_Hartland_Cir_Santee_CA_92071

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130005222-9105_Gorge_Ave_Santee_CA_92071

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130000699-7971_Rancho_Fanita_Dr_Santee_CA_92071

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130001303-8537_Big_Rock_Rd_Santee_CA_92071

ChulaV tenants, and, to a little lesser degree, Santee tenants are likely to be “locals.” This means they graduated from HS in that particular attendance area or an adjacent one. It doesn’t matter if they’re 25, 45 or 65 years old.

That’s how it is in many parts of SD County :).

[CA renter]

[quote=flu]
I don’t need no forbes/cnn/wsj article about speculation about where global economy is headed..First, I can read forbes/cnn/wsj…It’s not really relevant to what happens locally.[/quote]

But it is relevant to what’s happening locally. This isn’t a San Diego thing…it’s happening all across the country and in many other parts of the world. You can ignore it, of course, but that probably isn’t a good idea.

[ctr70]

[quote=bearishgurl]I don’t think MM qualifies as “old enough” to be “gentrified.” And there’s no compelling architecture there that “higher demographics” would move in to “preserve.”

City Heights actually has a “WWII” and “mid-century” commercial corridor on EC Blvd that is kind of spruced up now with the cut-and-cover parks over I-15. A new “mid-century look” community rec center and swimming pool and the Joan Kroc Ice Rink near Colima Park rounds out the city improvements.

A lot of cute, rehabbed craftsman and even Spanish are found in CH as well, small in size (compared to adjacent communities with more expensive housing).

MM just has a conglomerate of newer mid-rise commercial bldgs and chain hotels on the east end, all bunched-in together. It just looks sterile and extremely crowded to me. 92126 is all on tract as well (except maybe ONE street). There is really no reason to rehab anything there for a “labor of love” as there are no pocket doors and redwood built-ins around the FP to save, etc.

There’s nothing wrong with this, but it’s not the sort of area that gets “gentrified.”

I agree that MM is probably better to raise a family in than City Heights, however.

SK is right. MM is within the “city” but is actually a “suburb” as it is separated from the “metro” portion of SD by MCAS Miramar.[/quote]

This is a good post, I think parts of CH will gentrify the next 10-20 yrs (the parts that border better areas). There are some cool pre WW II houses in CH. The hipsters are already starting to move into some fringe parts. CH borders North Park, South Park, Normal Heights, Kensington. It will take a while though, some parts of CH are very, very rough still.

North Park, South Park, Normal Heights, Univ Heights are classic examples of recent gentrification in SD. These areas have blown up in price and you post a rental on Craigslist and it’s rented in like a day to high credit tenants. I know I have a rental down there. The houses and 2-4 units properties really held their values during the downturn. A lot of the crafstmans and 2-4 units are not far off 2004/2005 peak pricing (and some are back at peak). To me this area + some parts of Bankers Hill, Hillcrest, Mission Hills is the coolest place to live in all of SD if you don’t have kids. It’s the only part of SD that is anything like hip, walkable cities like Portland, Seattle, SF, Austin TX (only the older core part of Austin), Brooklyn NY, etc.. This is also one of the few parts of SD that has some cool pre WW II houses and old style little “down towns”. I lived there before I blew out of SD to greener pastures in Seattle WA.

And I agree on Mira Mesa, I have never seen anything desirable about this area other than it’s location close to tech jobs. It is not architecturally attractive at all. Most of the houses are “blah” cookie cutter. It’s full of unattractive strip centers off MM Blvd and big box stores close to 15. I would personally never, ever live there. Very sterile. It would be too hard on the eyes.

[ctr70]

[quote=paramount][quote=earlyretirement]

My feeling is you NEVER stop learning and there are always people smarter than me/you/etc. You never stop learning and you should always want to learn a bit each day. At least that’s what I try to do.

[/quote]

I feel the same way, I’ve become an intellectual grazer (not gayzer).

In 2008 I had the financial aptitude of Maureen O’Connor.

Then I got burned during the crash. I was pissed and still am to an extent.

Then I started reading Piggington, Mish Shedlock, Peter Schiff, etc….daily.

One of the most important things I’ve learned is to consult with people smarter than me when possible.[/quote]

You should also balance it out and listen to Bruce Norris (www.thenorrisgroup.com/blog/category/radio) The Big Picture by Barry Ritholz (www.ritholtz.com/blog/) and Calculated Risk (www.calculatedriskblog.com).

I like Schiff and Mish a lot. But Schiff tends to be a Gold Bug permabear who is endlessly saying everything is going to fall apart. As they say “a broken clock is right twice a day”. If you are a permabear, eventually you will be right because the economy goes in cycles, same with permabulls. I’m more interested in the guys that aren’t “perma” anything. Norris, Calculated Risk and Ritholz are less “perma’s”.

Also in the permabear/Gold Bug/Austerian crowd I like http://www.zerohedge.com.

Norris is especially awesome. The #1 real estate market timer in California BY FAR. Called the housing bull market 1997, called the crash in 2005 and late 2011 starting calling another price rise. He’s 3 for 3! I like Norris b/c he is a practictioner and a big time investor himself both in flips, development and trust deeds. So he isn’t just a talking head. He has major skin in the game.

[ctr70]

I also find it very interesting that everyone is now talking about chasing condos with multiple offers on them in C neighborhoods when they were treated like “lepers” in 2009-2011 on this forum. Really classic crowd following behavior on Pigg:

-2006 everyone should have been RE bears

-2009 just when everyone should have been backing up the truck on rentals, everyone jumped on the “bearish” bandwagon. It was all the rage to be the gloomiest, end of the world type. Just at the very time it was time to get greedy with real estate. Now in 2013 since it seems safe, everyone jumps in chases properties with 40 other offers when in 2009 we had way more inventory, tons of foreclosures, sometimes sitting with no offers at all for weeks or months.

-2009 when the DOW was at 7,000 everyone was panicking that it could go to 3,000, selling off their mutual funds. Now the DOW is 14,000

Very classic to me that just like people jump on bullish bandwagons in booms, people jump on the “bearish” bandwagon in busts, just at the VERY time when they should have been bullish, the peak of crowd following bearishness exists. Very classic. It will happen again and again and again. b/c most humans are psychologically crowd followers by nature. And those “bears” think they are being so smart and contrarian at those very times they should have turned bullish again. That is why there is a very, very, very small percentage of rich people like Buffet & Sam Zell who make a lot of money investing. As Warren Buffet says, “be greedy when others are fearful, fearful when others are greedy”.

Not saying I got it all right at all. I was a little too conservative in 2009 and bought into some of the “end of the world” economic stuff. Wish I was more aggressive with rentals. But I’m glad I did pick up some stuff and also held on to my mutual funds in 2009 when everyone was selling in a panic when the Dow dumped.

That’s not saying things couldn’t crash again. I do think the Fed printing $$$ massively, keeping rates way lower than they ever have been in U.S. history, & the way the Gov forced banks to not foreclose on people is responsible for much of bounce we have. We need to see incomes rise, more good jobs, lower unemployment before I get very comfortable.

[spdrun]

Not me. I’m making offers remotely in SD on anything that looks like the numbers are good. However, I’m also looking at properties and have an offer on a multi in on the East Coast (NJ).

The way I figure it, even if I end up buying in NJ, if I want to move to CA (or Europe, since it’s in the running for grad studies), I can always find acceptable tenants and dump the thing with a management co. That income + the income from renting my place in NY would easily cover rent anywhere in the US and most places abroad and then some. Plus the properties that I’m interested in on the East Coast are either SFR’s or multis. Meaning that there’s no chance of the HOA going bankrupt or doing something boneheaded that would prevent me from refi’ing. And no HOA-fee/special-assessment risk either.

Things in NJ are looking very similar to the way SD looked in 2009 — the tables are turned. There was a lot more foreclosure inventory in SD in 2011, but almost nil in NJ due to a court decision stalling foreclosures for a year and a half or so. Now the pipeline appears to have unclogged out here while re-clogging in CA. Probably largely due to the Homerenter’s Bill of Wrongs being passed, and banks being unsure what to do with the thing.

[ctr70]

Yes I agree the Homeowners Bill of Rights is the biggest crock of sh** ever. What a joke. There was no need to change existing foreclosure rules that were in place for 100 yrs in CA:
1. You miss 2 payments you get a notice of default
2. You miss another 3 you get a notice of trustee sale
3. Another 21 days pass and your houses gets auctioned.

WTF that ever had to change is beyond me. You don’t make your payments should get booted out of the freaking house!!! Very simple concept that did not need to change!

[spdrun]

Interestingly, there do seem to be quite a few trustee sales in SDCo recently. It’s not postponed, postponed, postponed like before: they actually seem to be going to trustee auction.

Other than making sure the lien is first position, looking for IRS liens, and eviction of any present occupants, what are the pitfalls of bidding on such a property at trustee auction?

[ctr70]

http://www.foreclosureforum.com/stats.html

From this site trustee sales are WAY down from Jan 2012. The trend is trustee sales have been falling for some time.

[spdrun]

And the pitfalls of bidding on one?

[ctr70]

I have never ventured into buying trustee sales. That game is full of sharks and for the super, super experts. There are a TON of pitfalls. I would do some serious education before even thinking of trustee sales, and honestly I do not think they are worth it anymore. From what I hear there is way too much competition and properties are getting bid up to almost retail prices. You have to REALLY do your homework and know what you are doing or you can get killed.

[carlsbadworker]

I wonder now if piggs are genetically flawed to be able to make a killing in the property market.

Although the site is focused on SoCal RE, many of us under-estimated how fast the real estate price can rise. I think sdr’s prediction is almost closest to the reality but even he bets the bottom will be at December 2012.

[Coronita]

[quote=carlsbadworker]I wonder now if piggs are genetically flawed to be able to make a killing in the property market.

Although the site is focused on SoCal RE, many of us under-estimated how fast the real estate price can rise. I think sdr’s prediction is almost closest to the reality but even he bets the bottom will be at December 2012.[/quote]

Killing? Probably not….Just to say above water, or break even…Probably….Then there’s the permabears that will always think the worlds going to end yesterday…..

Wish I bought a better place back when I did…Was way too conservative….Waiting all this time, on to see home prices pretty much near the same price with worse selection kinda stinks….I guess it could have been worse. I could have been renting all this time only to be exactly at square 1 right now too…..

[SD Realtor]

“Other than making sure the lien is first position, looking for IRS liens, and eviction of any present occupants, what are the pitfalls of bidding on such a property at trustee auction”

None u should go for it!

[spdrun]

If you can’t give advice like a normal human without being a sarcastic prick…

[Author]

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