First 20 days of April

[an]

I was bored last night so I did some reading on Mira Mesa Town Council meeting minutes and I’ve discovered something very interest. There will be massive amount of new housing in Mira Mesa in the next 10 years. I say 10 because they didn’t say exactly when they’ll start building. They’re planning to put over 5000 housing units in the area south of Mira Mesa and north of Miramar, between Camino Santa Fe and Camino Ruiz. The empty area north of Best Buy is also in final stages of planning, so they should theoretically be building soon. There will be 3 developments there. I’m not sure how many units will go there. The 3rd development will be at the corner of Camino Santa Fe and Calle Cristobal/Sorrento Valley Blvd. They plan to have a little over 100 units of mostly SFR and some twin homes. That development I think is on hold but I did see some developers w/ plans standing around that area when I drove home the other day. I wonder how 5000+ new homes in MM will affect the supply equation.

[Eugene]

To supplement your numbers with my HPI

Preliminary April numbers (July ’00 = 100%)

City average: 162% (median house value $421k)
Carmel Valley, 4S Ranch, Scripps Ranch: 167% ($849k)
Carlsbad, Encinitas: 181% ($719k)
Rancho Bernardo, Penasquitos, Carmel Mtn Ranch: 173% ($561k)
Bonita, Eastlake, Otay Ranch: 165% ($443k)
Clairemont, Linda Vista, Mira Mesa: 162% ($397k)
Vista, San Marcos, Escondido: 157% ($391k)
Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, San Ysidro: 170% ($360k)
54-94 corridor: 159% ($269k)

Justifiable price levels given current mortgage rates and 3% average inflation: 159% (conforming land), 142% (jumbo land)

All areas are close together and the pattern is even a little bit “upside-down”, high-end areas are relatively more overpriced than low-end areas. This is the opposite of what we had in ’05-’06.
Low end areas are quite reasonably priced at these rates. High end needs to come down another 15-20% to stabilize.

Also it’s interesting to note that “median values” are consistently lower than average April sales prices. Good properties are moving and bad properties are sitting on the market (or off the market). It is especially true for Carlsbad, Encinitas, and Carmel Valley.

median value vs. average sales price
92008: 649k
92009: 755k vs 848k
92010: 573k
92011: 761k vs 1042k
92024: 796k vs 927k
92130: 965k vs 1164k

91913: 413k vs 437k
91915: 435k vs 465k
92126: 389k vs 412k
92056; 358k vs 407k

[Eugene]

To supplement your numbers with my HPI

Preliminary April numbers (July ’00 = 100%)

City average: 162% (median house value $421k)
Carmel Valley, 4S Ranch, Scripps Ranch: 167% ($849k)
Carlsbad, Encinitas: 181% ($719k)
Rancho Bernardo, Penasquitos, Carmel Mtn Ranch: 173% ($561k)
Bonita, Eastlake, Otay Ranch: 165% ($443k)
Clairemont, Linda Vista, Mira Mesa: 162% ($397k)
Vista, San Marcos, Escondido: 157% ($391k)
Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, San Ysidro: 170% ($360k)
54-94 corridor: 159% ($269k)

Justifiable price levels given current mortgage rates and 3% average inflation: 159% (conforming land), 142% (jumbo land)

All areas are close together and the pattern is even a little bit “upside-down”, high-end areas are relatively more overpriced than low-end areas. This is the opposite of what we had in ’05-’06.
Low end areas are quite reasonably priced at these rates. High end needs to come down another 15-20% to stabilize.

Also it’s interesting to note that “median values” are consistently lower than average April sales prices. Good properties are moving and bad properties are sitting on the market (or off the market). It is especially true for Carlsbad, Encinitas, and Carmel Valley.

median value vs. average sales price
92008: 649k
92009: 755k vs 848k
92010: 573k
92011: 761k vs 1042k
92024: 796k vs 927k
92130: 965k vs 1164k

91913: 413k vs 437k
91915: 435k vs 465k
92126: 389k vs 412k
92056; 358k vs 407k

[Eugene]

To supplement your numbers with my HPI

Preliminary April numbers (July ’00 = 100%)

City average: 162% (median house value $421k)
Carmel Valley, 4S Ranch, Scripps Ranch: 167% ($849k)
Carlsbad, Encinitas: 181% ($719k)
Rancho Bernardo, Penasquitos, Carmel Mtn Ranch: 173% ($561k)
Bonita, Eastlake, Otay Ranch: 165% ($443k)
Clairemont, Linda Vista, Mira Mesa: 162% ($397k)
Vista, San Marcos, Escondido: 157% ($391k)
Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, San Ysidro: 170% ($360k)
54-94 corridor: 159% ($269k)

Justifiable price levels given current mortgage rates and 3% average inflation: 159% (conforming land), 142% (jumbo land)

All areas are close together and the pattern is even a little bit “upside-down”, high-end areas are relatively more overpriced than low-end areas. This is the opposite of what we had in ’05-’06.
Low end areas are quite reasonably priced at these rates. High end needs to come down another 15-20% to stabilize.

Also it’s interesting to note that “median values” are consistently lower than average April sales prices. Good properties are moving and bad properties are sitting on the market (or off the market). It is especially true for Carlsbad, Encinitas, and Carmel Valley.

median value vs. average sales price
92008: 649k
92009: 755k vs 848k
92010: 573k
92011: 761k vs 1042k
92024: 796k vs 927k
92130: 965k vs 1164k

91913: 413k vs 437k
91915: 435k vs 465k
92126: 389k vs 412k
92056; 358k vs 407k

[Eugene]

To supplement your numbers with my HPI

Preliminary April numbers (July ’00 = 100%)

City average: 162% (median house value $421k)
Carmel Valley, 4S Ranch, Scripps Ranch: 167% ($849k)
Carlsbad, Encinitas: 181% ($719k)
Rancho Bernardo, Penasquitos, Carmel Mtn Ranch: 173% ($561k)
Bonita, Eastlake, Otay Ranch: 165% ($443k)
Clairemont, Linda Vista, Mira Mesa: 162% ($397k)
Vista, San Marcos, Escondido: 157% ($391k)
Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, San Ysidro: 170% ($360k)
54-94 corridor: 159% ($269k)

Justifiable price levels given current mortgage rates and 3% average inflation: 159% (conforming land), 142% (jumbo land)

All areas are close together and the pattern is even a little bit “upside-down”, high-end areas are relatively more overpriced than low-end areas. This is the opposite of what we had in ’05-’06.
Low end areas are quite reasonably priced at these rates. High end needs to come down another 15-20% to stabilize.

Also it’s interesting to note that “median values” are consistently lower than average April sales prices. Good properties are moving and bad properties are sitting on the market (or off the market). It is especially true for Carlsbad, Encinitas, and Carmel Valley.

median value vs. average sales price
92008: 649k
92009: 755k vs 848k
92010: 573k
92011: 761k vs 1042k
92024: 796k vs 927k
92130: 965k vs 1164k

91913: 413k vs 437k
91915: 435k vs 465k
92126: 389k vs 412k
92056; 358k vs 407k

[Eugene]

To supplement your numbers with my HPI

Preliminary April numbers (July ’00 = 100%)

City average: 162% (median house value $421k)
Carmel Valley, 4S Ranch, Scripps Ranch: 167% ($849k)
Carlsbad, Encinitas: 181% ($719k)
Rancho Bernardo, Penasquitos, Carmel Mtn Ranch: 173% ($561k)
Bonita, Eastlake, Otay Ranch: 165% ($443k)
Clairemont, Linda Vista, Mira Mesa: 162% ($397k)
Vista, San Marcos, Escondido: 157% ($391k)
Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, San Ysidro: 170% ($360k)
54-94 corridor: 159% ($269k)

Justifiable price levels given current mortgage rates and 3% average inflation: 159% (conforming land), 142% (jumbo land)

All areas are close together and the pattern is even a little bit “upside-down”, high-end areas are relatively more overpriced than low-end areas. This is the opposite of what we had in ’05-’06.
Low end areas are quite reasonably priced at these rates. High end needs to come down another 15-20% to stabilize.

Also it’s interesting to note that “median values” are consistently lower than average April sales prices. Good properties are moving and bad properties are sitting on the market (or off the market). It is especially true for Carlsbad, Encinitas, and Carmel Valley.

median value vs. average sales price
92008: 649k
92009: 755k vs 848k
92010: 573k
92011: 761k vs 1042k
92024: 796k vs 927k
92130: 965k vs 1164k

91913: 413k vs 437k
91915: 435k vs 465k
92126: 389k vs 412k
92056; 358k vs 407k

[Wickedheart]

SD Realtor

Could you post stats for 92123 please?

[Wickedheart]

SD Realtor

Could you post stats for 92123 please?

[Wickedheart]

SD Realtor

Could you post stats for 92123 please?

[Wickedheart]

SD Realtor

Could you post stats for 92123 please?

[Wickedheart]

SD Realtor

Could you post stats for 92123 please?

[DWCAP]

AN,

I have always been suprised that no one has ever built on the land behind best buy. I never knew what it was for, but I always guessed it was zoned wrong, or for some kinda park or something. Everytime I drive the 15S, I wounder “huh?”. It just seems like a developers wet dream. ( I really hope they build apartments or condo’s there. SD has a real lack of entry level housing, and with all the freeway noise, can they ever really be luxery ANYTHING?)

Now I have also kinda been suprised about the area around Camino SF and Calle Cristobal also, but I kinda figured the problem was that the would keep that land for a bridge to penesquitos or something. Seems like a good way to alliviate traffic accross the canyon, though I suppose alot of people would shit a brick. 100 homes seems like alot, but I dont see any reason that it wouldnt work. You can just be damn sure they want to use the 92121 area code if at all possible rather then the 92126. I wonder if that isnt why they are delayed.

As for the 3000+ in the Canyon, ill need to read up on that. Seems like a pipe dream, but what do I know. Thanks for the heads up.

As for the effect on demand, I dont know. But Sdlookup has 23079 households as the listed number in MM. Assuming that translates into number of housing units, an increase of 21% to that number seems like it would hurt. Especially in the least desirable areas of MM. Who wants to buy a 1120sqft house built in 1971 when you could get a 1850sqft house built in 2015?

[DWCAP]

AN,

I have always been suprised that no one has ever built on the land behind best buy. I never knew what it was for, but I always guessed it was zoned wrong, or for some kinda park or something. Everytime I drive the 15S, I wounder “huh?”. It just seems like a developers wet dream. ( I really hope they build apartments or condo’s there. SD has a real lack of entry level housing, and with all the freeway noise, can they ever really be luxery ANYTHING?)

Now I have also kinda been suprised about the area around Camino SF and Calle Cristobal also, but I kinda figured the problem was that the would keep that land for a bridge to penesquitos or something. Seems like a good way to alliviate traffic accross the canyon, though I suppose alot of people would shit a brick. 100 homes seems like alot, but I dont see any reason that it wouldnt work. You can just be damn sure they want to use the 92121 area code if at all possible rather then the 92126. I wonder if that isnt why they are delayed.

As for the 3000+ in the Canyon, ill need to read up on that. Seems like a pipe dream, but what do I know. Thanks for the heads up.

As for the effect on demand, I dont know. But Sdlookup has 23079 households as the listed number in MM. Assuming that translates into number of housing units, an increase of 21% to that number seems like it would hurt. Especially in the least desirable areas of MM. Who wants to buy a 1120sqft house built in 1971 when you could get a 1850sqft house built in 2015?

[DWCAP]

AN,

I have always been suprised that no one has ever built on the land behind best buy. I never knew what it was for, but I always guessed it was zoned wrong, or for some kinda park or something. Everytime I drive the 15S, I wounder “huh?”. It just seems like a developers wet dream. ( I really hope they build apartments or condo’s there. SD has a real lack of entry level housing, and with all the freeway noise, can they ever really be luxery ANYTHING?)

Now I have also kinda been suprised about the area around Camino SF and Calle Cristobal also, but I kinda figured the problem was that the would keep that land for a bridge to penesquitos or something. Seems like a good way to alliviate traffic accross the canyon, though I suppose alot of people would shit a brick. 100 homes seems like alot, but I dont see any reason that it wouldnt work. You can just be damn sure they want to use the 92121 area code if at all possible rather then the 92126. I wonder if that isnt why they are delayed.

As for the 3000+ in the Canyon, ill need to read up on that. Seems like a pipe dream, but what do I know. Thanks for the heads up.

As for the effect on demand, I dont know. But Sdlookup has 23079 households as the listed number in MM. Assuming that translates into number of housing units, an increase of 21% to that number seems like it would hurt. Especially in the least desirable areas of MM. Who wants to buy a 1120sqft house built in 1971 when you could get a 1850sqft house built in 2015?

[DWCAP]

AN,

I have always been suprised that no one has ever built on the land behind best buy. I never knew what it was for, but I always guessed it was zoned wrong, or for some kinda park or something. Everytime I drive the 15S, I wounder “huh?”. It just seems like a developers wet dream. ( I really hope they build apartments or condo’s there. SD has a real lack of entry level housing, and with all the freeway noise, can they ever really be luxery ANYTHING?)

Now I have also kinda been suprised about the area around Camino SF and Calle Cristobal also, but I kinda figured the problem was that the would keep that land for a bridge to penesquitos or something. Seems like a good way to alliviate traffic accross the canyon, though I suppose alot of people would shit a brick. 100 homes seems like alot, but I dont see any reason that it wouldnt work. You can just be damn sure they want to use the 92121 area code if at all possible rather then the 92126. I wonder if that isnt why they are delayed.

As for the 3000+ in the Canyon, ill need to read up on that. Seems like a pipe dream, but what do I know. Thanks for the heads up.

As for the effect on demand, I dont know. But Sdlookup has 23079 households as the listed number in MM. Assuming that translates into number of housing units, an increase of 21% to that number seems like it would hurt. Especially in the least desirable areas of MM. Who wants to buy a 1120sqft house built in 1971 when you could get a 1850sqft house built in 2015?

[Author]

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