Feds see recovery soon. prepare for another leg down…

[DWCAP]

“The unadjusted figures for last week actually showed that new claims rose by 86,389 last week, which would push the total to 667,534.

Those adjustment difficulties also were behind a big drop reported for people continuing to draw unemployment benefits, the analyst said.

The number of people still collecting benefits fell by a seasonally adjusted 642,000 to 6.27 million, the lowest level since mid-April.

The unadjusted figures for continued claims showed an increase of 63,714.”

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jul/16/us-economy-071609/?business&zIndex=133023

please keep in mind that the continuing claims numbers exclude all the people on the ‘special’ unemplpoyment roles. I havent seen the numbers for this week, but a short while ago we had drops in the reported roles that were mostly just people shifting to the unreported ‘special’ group. That isnt exactly the good thing they are trying to convey in the press.

Increadably the UT had a better breakdown than the national media, who I occaisionally believe is outsorcing due to layoffs to the journalism programs at local middle schools.

[Arraya]

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the Fed is smoking green shoots. I know , I know they have such a stellar history of forecasting but the squirrels in my head told me they are not to be trusted.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that growing troubles in the market for risky mortgages thus far doesn’t appear to be spreading to the overall economy but the situation bears close watching.

March 07

[Arraya]

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the Fed is smoking green shoots. I know , I know they have such a stellar history of forecasting but the squirrels in my head told me they are not to be trusted.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that growing troubles in the market for risky mortgages thus far doesn’t appear to be spreading to the overall economy but the situation bears close watching.

March 07

[Arraya]

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the Fed is smoking green shoots. I know , I know they have such a stellar history of forecasting but the squirrels in my head told me they are not to be trusted.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that growing troubles in the market for risky mortgages thus far doesn’t appear to be spreading to the overall economy but the situation bears close watching.

March 07

[Arraya]

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the Fed is smoking green shoots. I know , I know they have such a stellar history of forecasting but the squirrels in my head told me they are not to be trusted.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that growing troubles in the market for risky mortgages thus far doesn’t appear to be spreading to the overall economy but the situation bears close watching.

March 07

[Arraya]

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the Fed is smoking green shoots. I know , I know they have such a stellar history of forecasting but the squirrels in my head told me they are not to be trusted.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that growing troubles in the market for risky mortgages thus far doesn’t appear to be spreading to the overall economy but the situation bears close watching.

March 07

[Veritas]

Sounds like smoking more than green shoots. Sounds like smoking crack.

[Veritas]

Sounds like smoking more than green shoots. Sounds like smoking crack.

[Veritas]

Sounds like smoking more than green shoots. Sounds like smoking crack.

[Veritas]

Sounds like smoking more than green shoots. Sounds like smoking crack.

[Veritas]

Sounds like smoking more than green shoots. Sounds like smoking crack.

[DWCAP]

One quick question, maybe Rich or one of the financial guys on here knows this, but when do they adjust unemployment up? So far it seems that we constantly are living a version of ground hog day, where bad employment numbers come in, the government “adjusts” them either it be seasonally or by the oh so accurate ‘birth/death model, and then we see not so bad numbers come out.

Then things get worse; and more bad employment numbers come in. rinse-wash-repeat.

IF adjusting for ‘normal’layoffs is acceptable, then there would have to be a time when they ‘re-adjust’ the other way wouldnt there? Shouldnt the numbers in Aug-Sept be re-adjusted up to reflect the ‘normal’ re-hiring of the very workers we adjusted unemployment down for in July? Does this happen?

IF the birth/death model is a way of stastically catching up with problems tracking job creation in the economy, then wouldnt there have to be a time when normal trend is negative job growth and layoff numbers should be adjusted up? It seems to have happened in January, why are we getting superior ‘birth/death’ jobs now (as compared to last year) when the economy is worse?

[DWCAP]

One quick question, maybe Rich or one of the financial guys on here knows this, but when do they adjust unemployment up? So far it seems that we constantly are living a version of ground hog day, where bad employment numbers come in, the government “adjusts” them either it be seasonally or by the oh so accurate ‘birth/death model, and then we see not so bad numbers come out.

Then things get worse; and more bad employment numbers come in. rinse-wash-repeat.

IF adjusting for ‘normal’layoffs is acceptable, then there would have to be a time when they ‘re-adjust’ the other way wouldnt there? Shouldnt the numbers in Aug-Sept be re-adjusted up to reflect the ‘normal’ re-hiring of the very workers we adjusted unemployment down for in July? Does this happen?

IF the birth/death model is a way of stastically catching up with problems tracking job creation in the economy, then wouldnt there have to be a time when normal trend is negative job growth and layoff numbers should be adjusted up? It seems to have happened in January, why are we getting superior ‘birth/death’ jobs now (as compared to last year) when the economy is worse?

[DWCAP]

One quick question, maybe Rich or one of the financial guys on here knows this, but when do they adjust unemployment up? So far it seems that we constantly are living a version of ground hog day, where bad employment numbers come in, the government “adjusts” them either it be seasonally or by the oh so accurate ‘birth/death model, and then we see not so bad numbers come out.

Then things get worse; and more bad employment numbers come in. rinse-wash-repeat.

IF adjusting for ‘normal’layoffs is acceptable, then there would have to be a time when they ‘re-adjust’ the other way wouldnt there? Shouldnt the numbers in Aug-Sept be re-adjusted up to reflect the ‘normal’ re-hiring of the very workers we adjusted unemployment down for in July? Does this happen?

IF the birth/death model is a way of stastically catching up with problems tracking job creation in the economy, then wouldnt there have to be a time when normal trend is negative job growth and layoff numbers should be adjusted up? It seems to have happened in January, why are we getting superior ‘birth/death’ jobs now (as compared to last year) when the economy is worse?

[DWCAP]

One quick question, maybe Rich or one of the financial guys on here knows this, but when do they adjust unemployment up? So far it seems that we constantly are living a version of ground hog day, where bad employment numbers come in, the government “adjusts” them either it be seasonally or by the oh so accurate ‘birth/death model, and then we see not so bad numbers come out.

Then things get worse; and more bad employment numbers come in. rinse-wash-repeat.

IF adjusting for ‘normal’layoffs is acceptable, then there would have to be a time when they ‘re-adjust’ the other way wouldnt there? Shouldnt the numbers in Aug-Sept be re-adjusted up to reflect the ‘normal’ re-hiring of the very workers we adjusted unemployment down for in July? Does this happen?

IF the birth/death model is a way of stastically catching up with problems tracking job creation in the economy, then wouldnt there have to be a time when normal trend is negative job growth and layoff numbers should be adjusted up? It seems to have happened in January, why are we getting superior ‘birth/death’ jobs now (as compared to last year) when the economy is worse?

[Author]

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