Fed cuts .5% yet again…

[temeculaguy]

FLU, no apology needed, just that it wasn’t directed at me is enough. Like the other fiscal conservatives have expressed, I hate bubbles, they are counterproductive to good planning. In a perfect world housing would have gone up 5% a year, stocks and commodities too. It’s the drastic swings up and down that screw things up, because despite what anyone says, equilibrium cannot be denied. Speaking of history, no matter how many books we read, everyone has to experience a bubble in order to spot one. I also experienced a meticulous clock cleansing in the dot com bubble and it was that lesson that served me well in the R/E bubble, hopefully today’s bubble victim will see the next one coming and act accordingly.

[SD Realtor]

“Personally, I’ve got nothing to worry about.”

Is the same true for all of your relatives and friends?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“Personally, I’ve got nothing to worry about.”

Is the same true for all of your relatives and friends?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“Personally, I’ve got nothing to worry about.”

Is the same true for all of your relatives and friends?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“Personally, I’ve got nothing to worry about.”

Is the same true for all of your relatives and friends?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“Personally, I’ve got nothing to worry about.”

Is the same true for all of your relatives and friends?

SD Realtor

[DWCAP]

I suppose a few people are chearing a recession, why not? We lived through the last one in 2001 without too much real pain right? Experience teaches them not to worry, to accelerate when everyone else is slowing down and BAM you are a lap ahead when things speed back up again. ( BTW I hate NASCAR, but it works) The problem is that unless you lost your options or something in the tech bubble, the pain wasnt really felt by alot of people. This isnt to discount it, just to say some people were hurt alot more than most people. This time around everyone is gonna get hurt, and in my opinion hurt more. So please forgive those that have discounted their exposure to pain, they know not what they do.

I guess what I really want to say is that economics 101 taught me that recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. It clears out old inventory, decaying buisnesses, and punishes excessive risk. It is the punishing rainstorm that brings floods, wind, and lightning, but when it passes those that survived are better off for the water and felled dead trees. I dont want a recession, I dont want to see people hurt, I really dont want to see my stocks take a huge haircut. But I also dont want 400Billion dollar deficits and housing that no one can afford. Looking at it that way, ill take the short term pain of a recession and reset everytime over 15 years of stagflation/ Japanese style lack of growth. To me this is a lesser of two evils kinda question, not a “do you want…” kinda question.

PS, SD R. Those are the same kinda questions that get our Government into budget trouble all the time. Do you want to see drug addicts and teenage prostitutes? There will never be enough resources to take care of every need, even in the good times. So questions like that seem more like brow beating and fear mongering. No body ever wants those things. It doesnt mean that the pain isnt necessary.

BTW, I am scared of the next year or two. I am hopefull for the next twenty. If we were not correcting, that would be the other way around.

[DWCAP]

I suppose a few people are chearing a recession, why not? We lived through the last one in 2001 without too much real pain right? Experience teaches them not to worry, to accelerate when everyone else is slowing down and BAM you are a lap ahead when things speed back up again. ( BTW I hate NASCAR, but it works) The problem is that unless you lost your options or something in the tech bubble, the pain wasnt really felt by alot of people. This isnt to discount it, just to say some people were hurt alot more than most people. This time around everyone is gonna get hurt, and in my opinion hurt more. So please forgive those that have discounted their exposure to pain, they know not what they do.

I guess what I really want to say is that economics 101 taught me that recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. It clears out old inventory, decaying buisnesses, and punishes excessive risk. It is the punishing rainstorm that brings floods, wind, and lightning, but when it passes those that survived are better off for the water and felled dead trees. I dont want a recession, I dont want to see people hurt, I really dont want to see my stocks take a huge haircut. But I also dont want 400Billion dollar deficits and housing that no one can afford. Looking at it that way, ill take the short term pain of a recession and reset everytime over 15 years of stagflation/ Japanese style lack of growth. To me this is a lesser of two evils kinda question, not a “do you want…” kinda question.

PS, SD R. Those are the same kinda questions that get our Government into budget trouble all the time. Do you want to see drug addicts and teenage prostitutes? There will never be enough resources to take care of every need, even in the good times. So questions like that seem more like brow beating and fear mongering. No body ever wants those things. It doesnt mean that the pain isnt necessary.

BTW, I am scared of the next year or two. I am hopefull for the next twenty. If we were not correcting, that would be the other way around.

[DWCAP]

I suppose a few people are chearing a recession, why not? We lived through the last one in 2001 without too much real pain right? Experience teaches them not to worry, to accelerate when everyone else is slowing down and BAM you are a lap ahead when things speed back up again. ( BTW I hate NASCAR, but it works) The problem is that unless you lost your options or something in the tech bubble, the pain wasnt really felt by alot of people. This isnt to discount it, just to say some people were hurt alot more than most people. This time around everyone is gonna get hurt, and in my opinion hurt more. So please forgive those that have discounted their exposure to pain, they know not what they do.

I guess what I really want to say is that economics 101 taught me that recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. It clears out old inventory, decaying buisnesses, and punishes excessive risk. It is the punishing rainstorm that brings floods, wind, and lightning, but when it passes those that survived are better off for the water and felled dead trees. I dont want a recession, I dont want to see people hurt, I really dont want to see my stocks take a huge haircut. But I also dont want 400Billion dollar deficits and housing that no one can afford. Looking at it that way, ill take the short term pain of a recession and reset everytime over 15 years of stagflation/ Japanese style lack of growth. To me this is a lesser of two evils kinda question, not a “do you want…” kinda question.

PS, SD R. Those are the same kinda questions that get our Government into budget trouble all the time. Do you want to see drug addicts and teenage prostitutes? There will never be enough resources to take care of every need, even in the good times. So questions like that seem more like brow beating and fear mongering. No body ever wants those things. It doesnt mean that the pain isnt necessary.

BTW, I am scared of the next year or two. I am hopefull for the next twenty. If we were not correcting, that would be the other way around.

[DWCAP]

I suppose a few people are chearing a recession, why not? We lived through the last one in 2001 without too much real pain right? Experience teaches them not to worry, to accelerate when everyone else is slowing down and BAM you are a lap ahead when things speed back up again. ( BTW I hate NASCAR, but it works) The problem is that unless you lost your options or something in the tech bubble, the pain wasnt really felt by alot of people. This isnt to discount it, just to say some people were hurt alot more than most people. This time around everyone is gonna get hurt, and in my opinion hurt more. So please forgive those that have discounted their exposure to pain, they know not what they do.

I guess what I really want to say is that economics 101 taught me that recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. It clears out old inventory, decaying buisnesses, and punishes excessive risk. It is the punishing rainstorm that brings floods, wind, and lightning, but when it passes those that survived are better off for the water and felled dead trees. I dont want a recession, I dont want to see people hurt, I really dont want to see my stocks take a huge haircut. But I also dont want 400Billion dollar deficits and housing that no one can afford. Looking at it that way, ill take the short term pain of a recession and reset everytime over 15 years of stagflation/ Japanese style lack of growth. To me this is a lesser of two evils kinda question, not a “do you want…” kinda question.

PS, SD R. Those are the same kinda questions that get our Government into budget trouble all the time. Do you want to see drug addicts and teenage prostitutes? There will never be enough resources to take care of every need, even in the good times. So questions like that seem more like brow beating and fear mongering. No body ever wants those things. It doesnt mean that the pain isnt necessary.

BTW, I am scared of the next year or two. I am hopefull for the next twenty. If we were not correcting, that would be the other way around.

[DWCAP]

I suppose a few people are chearing a recession, why not? We lived through the last one in 2001 without too much real pain right? Experience teaches them not to worry, to accelerate when everyone else is slowing down and BAM you are a lap ahead when things speed back up again. ( BTW I hate NASCAR, but it works) The problem is that unless you lost your options or something in the tech bubble, the pain wasnt really felt by alot of people. This isnt to discount it, just to say some people were hurt alot more than most people. This time around everyone is gonna get hurt, and in my opinion hurt more. So please forgive those that have discounted their exposure to pain, they know not what they do.

I guess what I really want to say is that economics 101 taught me that recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. It clears out old inventory, decaying buisnesses, and punishes excessive risk. It is the punishing rainstorm that brings floods, wind, and lightning, but when it passes those that survived are better off for the water and felled dead trees. I dont want a recession, I dont want to see people hurt, I really dont want to see my stocks take a huge haircut. But I also dont want 400Billion dollar deficits and housing that no one can afford. Looking at it that way, ill take the short term pain of a recession and reset everytime over 15 years of stagflation/ Japanese style lack of growth. To me this is a lesser of two evils kinda question, not a “do you want…” kinda question.

PS, SD R. Those are the same kinda questions that get our Government into budget trouble all the time. Do you want to see drug addicts and teenage prostitutes? There will never be enough resources to take care of every need, even in the good times. So questions like that seem more like brow beating and fear mongering. No body ever wants those things. It doesnt mean that the pain isnt necessary.

BTW, I am scared of the next year or two. I am hopefull for the next twenty. If we were not correcting, that would be the other way around.

[SD Realtor]

DW – Once again I think I need to clarify my stance. Personally I agree that recessions and possibly even depressions are good for an economy. Again my point is not to debate what is or is not good for the economy.

The thing that always seems peculiar to me is the dichotomy of points brought out here. On the one hand the prevailing opinions of this site are that this housing runup has been unprecented with any in our history. Point two, that at no other time in history have we had so much leverage, so much debt, so much corruption, and never ever have we had such a vast secondary market created by the runup in housing. Furthermore it is generally agreed that the these two factors have created a stunning amount of wealth and debt at the same time. So with all that said, shouldn’t we have the MOTHER of all recessions? Those who consistently post facts (and these are facts that I ASOLUTELY AGREE WITH and do not dispute), who do insist on, advocate, and even welcome a recession; shouldn’t that recession in which they are welcoming be a freeking tsunami?

Do you see my point now? I don’t fear a 2001 recession, I don’t fear an early 90’s recession (which by the way many on this site were probably in high school or less at that time) and I recalled the high interest rates of the 80’s all to well. Even the gas lines of the 70’s… Anyways what I fear is, what if all these bears are right on? What if it does come to roost? Would it be good in the long run? Yeah I guess… Would it be like comparing a tornado to a minor squall when comparing it to those other recessions? Absolutely.

So this is what I fear. This is what concerns me much more then anything else. That is why when someone posts be careful what you wish for, I think some of us understand the gravity of that statement much more then others.

Does that make sense?

[SD Realtor]

DW – Once again I think I need to clarify my stance. Personally I agree that recessions and possibly even depressions are good for an economy. Again my point is not to debate what is or is not good for the economy.

The thing that always seems peculiar to me is the dichotomy of points brought out here. On the one hand the prevailing opinions of this site are that this housing runup has been unprecented with any in our history. Point two, that at no other time in history have we had so much leverage, so much debt, so much corruption, and never ever have we had such a vast secondary market created by the runup in housing. Furthermore it is generally agreed that the these two factors have created a stunning amount of wealth and debt at the same time. So with all that said, shouldn’t we have the MOTHER of all recessions? Those who consistently post facts (and these are facts that I ASOLUTELY AGREE WITH and do not dispute), who do insist on, advocate, and even welcome a recession; shouldn’t that recession in which they are welcoming be a freeking tsunami?

Do you see my point now? I don’t fear a 2001 recession, I don’t fear an early 90’s recession (which by the way many on this site were probably in high school or less at that time) and I recalled the high interest rates of the 80’s all to well. Even the gas lines of the 70’s… Anyways what I fear is, what if all these bears are right on? What if it does come to roost? Would it be good in the long run? Yeah I guess… Would it be like comparing a tornado to a minor squall when comparing it to those other recessions? Absolutely.

So this is what I fear. This is what concerns me much more then anything else. That is why when someone posts be careful what you wish for, I think some of us understand the gravity of that statement much more then others.

Does that make sense?

[SD Realtor]

DW – Once again I think I need to clarify my stance. Personally I agree that recessions and possibly even depressions are good for an economy. Again my point is not to debate what is or is not good for the economy.

The thing that always seems peculiar to me is the dichotomy of points brought out here. On the one hand the prevailing opinions of this site are that this housing runup has been unprecented with any in our history. Point two, that at no other time in history have we had so much leverage, so much debt, so much corruption, and never ever have we had such a vast secondary market created by the runup in housing. Furthermore it is generally agreed that the these two factors have created a stunning amount of wealth and debt at the same time. So with all that said, shouldn’t we have the MOTHER of all recessions? Those who consistently post facts (and these are facts that I ASOLUTELY AGREE WITH and do not dispute), who do insist on, advocate, and even welcome a recession; shouldn’t that recession in which they are welcoming be a freeking tsunami?

Do you see my point now? I don’t fear a 2001 recession, I don’t fear an early 90’s recession (which by the way many on this site were probably in high school or less at that time) and I recalled the high interest rates of the 80’s all to well. Even the gas lines of the 70’s… Anyways what I fear is, what if all these bears are right on? What if it does come to roost? Would it be good in the long run? Yeah I guess… Would it be like comparing a tornado to a minor squall when comparing it to those other recessions? Absolutely.

So this is what I fear. This is what concerns me much more then anything else. That is why when someone posts be careful what you wish for, I think some of us understand the gravity of that statement much more then others.

Does that make sense?

[SD Realtor]

DW – Once again I think I need to clarify my stance. Personally I agree that recessions and possibly even depressions are good for an economy. Again my point is not to debate what is or is not good for the economy.

The thing that always seems peculiar to me is the dichotomy of points brought out here. On the one hand the prevailing opinions of this site are that this housing runup has been unprecented with any in our history. Point two, that at no other time in history have we had so much leverage, so much debt, so much corruption, and never ever have we had such a vast secondary market created by the runup in housing. Furthermore it is generally agreed that the these two factors have created a stunning amount of wealth and debt at the same time. So with all that said, shouldn’t we have the MOTHER of all recessions? Those who consistently post facts (and these are facts that I ASOLUTELY AGREE WITH and do not dispute), who do insist on, advocate, and even welcome a recession; shouldn’t that recession in which they are welcoming be a freeking tsunami?

Do you see my point now? I don’t fear a 2001 recession, I don’t fear an early 90’s recession (which by the way many on this site were probably in high school or less at that time) and I recalled the high interest rates of the 80’s all to well. Even the gas lines of the 70’s… Anyways what I fear is, what if all these bears are right on? What if it does come to roost? Would it be good in the long run? Yeah I guess… Would it be like comparing a tornado to a minor squall when comparing it to those other recessions? Absolutely.

So this is what I fear. This is what concerns me much more then anything else. That is why when someone posts be careful what you wish for, I think some of us understand the gravity of that statement much more then others.

Does that make sense?

[Author]

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