Fairbanks Ranch vs. Santaluz vs. Cielo vs. rest of Rancho Santa Fe

[patientlywaiting]

I live in Fairbanks.

You won’t find any good deal in the more expensive areas for at least another two to three years. The downturn has yet to affect those areas.

You’ll regret buying anything in the next 12 months, especially if your funds are not unlimited and you care about appreciation/depreciation. If you don’t care, then buy.

My recommendation is to rent a house in the covenant of Rancho Santa Fe and watch the market depreciate. They are older but very nice houses. That will give you a feel of the overall area then you can explore the neighborhoods that are best for you. Some people prefer new/newer houses.

[bsrsharma]

As far as foreclosures, my "opinion" is that even very high end areas will suffer foreclosures but the more recently built high end areas will suffer more foreclosures than the more established high end areas.

SD, Can you please explain that analysis? I thought most of the very high end transactions are cash and hence immune to foreclosures. In fact, if $ depreciates low enough, a lot of foreign buyers may find estate grade property (multi million kind) in places like RSF irresistible. That should keep the prices from plunging.  

[bsrsharma]

My recommendation is to rent a house in the covenant of Rancho Santa Fe and watch the market depreciate

That may not be the smartest move if you are sitting on $3.5M – 4.5M. Your risk of loss on $ plunge are far higher than price drops in RSF at that price level. I think anyone with more than $1M cash has serious value erosion risk sitting on US $ compared to good RSF grade real estate.

[raptorduck]

In terms of Fairbanks, we have seen a number of very nice houses in our price range, albeit on the higher side of it. There are some smaller/more dated ones we also saw that we could update or expand (assuming it is permitted)that were around $3 mil or less.

Comps for the past 6 months show pretty steady drops in FBR and sales prices about 90%+ of asking. While we prefer to buy at least a 10 yr house and preferbly a 20 yr house, you never know what life brings so we always want to maximize appreciation where possible. But this is not a flip situation and we are not looking for a “transition” home either.

I suppose if a year from now we have still not bought anything, we could consider renting until we do. But until then, we don’t need to move, just to rent, although your idea of renting and getting a feel for the area is a very good one.

I should note that I have lived in SD before for short periods (1 year each time). Once in the military on base and also in Del Mar (10th street) and Carmel Valley so I have a good feel for those areas. My last stint there was 10 yrs ago and my frame of mind so different back then (i.e. single bachelor life) that my prior experience in SD is utterly useless to me as a family man now. I am not lookig for cool, active, busy places to party any more and be seen, but rather quiet places to peacfully raise a family and grow old gracefully. That is probably why I never noticed RSF really when I lived there before.

While I often drove through RSF on weekends on my motorcycle back then, I never did so on weekdays and never really went into neighborhoods or knew much about the area. I had never been to FBR or even knew where it was, although now I realize I often drove near it. What has impressed me the most about FBR is not just the very nice homes, but how consistantly well manicured they all are. We do also like guarded gated communities for the added actual/or artificial security.

[ocrenter]

raptorduck,

I second the renting idea. Rent where you are most likely to want to live. Get the wife and the kids familiar with the area. After a year the whole family can make the decision together as to where is the best spot for that permanent family home. (it doesn’t hurt that prices would be quite a bit lower in a year compared to now either).

when we first moved from OC to SD, everything looked great, the idea that a 3700 sqft golf course home can be had for $650,000 was unreal (was in Valley Center). good thing we rented because we can’t imagine being trapped in Valley Center for the next 15 years. A bit different than your situation, but similar idea.

[SD Realtor]

I would also recommend renting if you can. That way you will not only enjoy the benefit of what will most likely be continued depreciation, but you will be able to really scope out your ideal property without any rush.

SD Realtor

[Bugs]

RSF Farms might be your best deal. It has much easier access. I’d skip the Crosby and Cielo altogether. Driving around in Cielo is a real nuisance – it can take you 10 minutes to get back home even after you enter the gate.

If you have $3.5mil to spend it would pay to shop around a bit. The number of new homes on good sized lots out in that area vastly outstrip the number of sales, and there should even be a few never-lived-in foreclosures. A lot of the spec builders are going to lose their shirts out there, and their loss is your gain.

As far as prestige, there’s the Covenant areas and then there’s everything else. The Bridges is nice too but it’s still closer to FR than the Covenant in terms of prestige.

Truly, if you look around you should be able to rent. Renting will be but a fraction of what a mortgage payment would be. In a few years you’ll probably be able to get a lot more house for your money.

[raptorduck]

Testing the commute to Cielo and Del Mar Meadows this weekend. I will drive from CV to Cielo in the middle of rush hour, which should be the worst commute of all our options. What has us still looking at Cielo is the views and the low prices for what you can get. One house we are looking at we should be able to get $1 million below what it was listed for last year!

We are now looking at a house at Del Mar Meadows, which I now understand is right next to the place we looked at before, Meadows Del Mar (how confusing!). I know that commute is a snap, but commute is not the #1 priority as the worst commute (Cielo) is still 3 times shorter than my current one.

Anyone have an answer for my Santaluz landscaping restriction question from earlier?

[lindismith]

You might consider googling the “nifty 50” drought tolerant plants. They are available all over the county at many, many nurseries.

San Diego is actually a desert, and I’m not sure if you’re aware, but we’re in stage one of a drought here. The nifty 50 are all the plants that do beautifully well in local conditions (read dry) and do not require a lot of water. And no, they are not cacti. They are flowering, soft-leaved, beautiful plants, and look perfect in the RSF area. You can have a very lush look, without tropical plants.

There are many local landscapers who will landscape using these plants. Please email me at lindismith at hotmail if you want me to put you in touch with some.

[raptorduck]

I suppose I should not move to a dessert if I like palm trees so much.

[raptorduck]

Theory on why SD prices have dropped so much. No lock boxes in RSF. Now up here, I looked for a while in places like Los Altos Hills and Atherton, which are more expensive than RSF. I looked in the same price range and even let my broker show me a $15 million home I would never or could never buy. In all cases they were on lock boxes and she could show them to me any time.

In RSF everything is by appointment. If the listing agent is out of town, (as is the case for two homes we wanted to tour) you don’t get to look at the house. For out of town buyers that may mean you never considered tht house. How does that help the seller? If folks are having trouble finding buyers in RSF and houses are staying on the market 100+ days, seems to me you would want to maximize the chances of potential buyers actually seeing your property. Just my two cent.

[peterk2001]

Avoid Del Dios Highway in the morning at all costs…..One area of RSF to consider is the area in and around the Rancho Santa fe farms golf club….It connects to Carmel Valley via Rancho Santa Farms Rd. to Carmel Valley road to the 56 and avoids the northern Del Dios Highway which is one lane and gets bogged down in the morning and afternoon…

Its nice that you have 3.5 million to spend!!! Good luck……Need to adopt another son?????????????

[raptorduck]

Thanks to everyone for their very insightful comments. They were very helpful.

An interesting note. We decided to look a second time at one of the houses in FBR that has been on the market for a very long time (140+ days) and had only had one offer prior to us reviewing it. When we contacted seller’s agent, she indicated that there were two offers that had just come in that day, but would show it to us anwyay. Amazing coincedence.

I immediately told my agent to pull that house from our list and indicate to seller’s agent we were not interested in it any more and move on. If what seller’s agent said is true, which is somewhat suspect, there is no need for us to get into a bidding war in this market anyway. Interesting coincidence though.

[Ex-SD]

raptorduck: The possibility of two offers coming in at the same time that you showed interest in a home that has been on the market for 140 days is just about zero. The market is just headed in the wrong direction for this to happen on an expensive home at this time. Many agents are desperate right now because they are so used to doing “little to nothing” for making an above average income…………….now that they are having to actually work, they will resort to stupid sales tactics that are transparent to anyone with half a brain. I’m glad you told them that you weren’t interested anymore……that’s what I would have done.
You’re looking in some great areas and many of the people who posted in response to your query in this thread are pretty knowledgeable about these areas. You can’t go wrong with any of these locations. I am a huge bear at this time and right or wrong, I think that the bottom won’t come until mid 2011 or 2012 and then it will sit on the bottom for a good while. My point is that there is no rush to buy and there is likely to be a good supply of luxury homes for rent as the housing market continues marching downward.
Good luck to you and your family whatever you may choose to do.

[NotCranky]

What about Santee?

[Author]

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