Self driving cars are closer than we think. Self driving Ubers might not make many of us give up cars, but think about:
1. Elderly people who make 1-2 car trips per week and 1000 miles a year.
2. Married couples in apartments who have 2 cars but only one off-street spot.
3. People who walk/bike/transit to work, but have a car for errands
4. College students who keep their high school car at their parents’ house to use for visits/summer only.
The point is, there are many marginal car owners who can realisticly give them up once there are self-driving Ubers. Rich people, people with children, people who do a lot of home improvement work, people who love driving, etc would be the groups who wouldn’t give up private car ownership.
Nonetheless, I could see in the medium term future the number of privately owned cars go down by more than 25% in San Diego. The average private car is parked 23 hours a day and needs an average of two parking spots. There is really some amazing potential to use urban and inner-suburban land in more productive ways as private car ownership declines. The self-driving cars can be on the road 18 hours, and then sleep/recharge at night when demand is low in a solar powered garage off the 8 in El Cajon.
I see a lot more people relying solely on Uber/Lyft already.
What I find surprising is that, among people who are so-called economically minded, there is no outcry for a sharing economy — car share and house share, land use reform. Those are the most inefficient uses of capital. There must be ways to use those assets more efficiently. Letting them sit iddle does nobody any good.
[quote=FlyerInHi]
There will be more and more people who choose to live without their own cars. It depends on the car share buiness models to develop. But I see more people relying on uber and Lyft already.[/quote]
They may save on auto insurance, car maintenance and depreciation, but they may need to increase their exterminator bill as they bring extra friends home on their clothes…
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