Existing Homesales Timebomb?

[Duck]

Sdduuuuude,

Have you ever tried to use that home warranty? I have. Many times. They fix very little. Maybe if your microwave goes out, but they invariably have an out for even minor things. If you are talking structural, electrical, etc. on an older home, it’s not even worth the $50 service call to have someone look at it. It won’t be covered.

[gracie]

I have had new homes and older homes.
Much prefer the new home.
I agree that sometimes it is hard to find a great new home in a terrific area…but we did.

Although the older home was cheaper…we did not have an HOA, etc..
But…frankly I was sick of fixing things/remodeling in our older home…and I did not like that our neighbors had boats, cars, all over the street and the barking dogs! I love having an HOA!

[gracie]

I have had new homes and older homes.
Much prefer the new home.
I agree that sometimes it is hard to find a great new home in a terrific area…but we did.

Although the older home was cheaper…we did not have an HOA, etc..
But…frankly I was sick of fixing things/remodeling in our older home…and I did not like that our neighbors had boats, cars, all over the street and the barking dogs! I love having an HOA!

[patientrenter]

Bugs, you are right. Median prices for a few selected zip codes are not a reliable indicator of a trend.

To understand where the high end market in OC, or any other market, is going, I prefer to look at prices per sq ft and aggregate across all the relevant zip codes. Specifically, calculate the % change in price per square foot separately for each zip code, and then average across all the zip codes relevant to the market you’re looking at, weighting each zip code by the number of sales in that area.

I did a version of this for OC. I arranged all of OC’s zip codes by the April 2007 price per square foot, in increasing order. I divided them into 10 groups so that each group had about 10% of total April 2007 sales. For each zip code I calculated the % change in the price per sq ft from 2006 to April 2007. Within each of the 10 groups, I then averaged the resulting %’s, weighting each % by the number of April 2007 sales. Here are the results:

Price/sqft #Sales %PriceChange
Total 1,650 -2.3%

0-357 184 -11.0%
358-371 177 -4.6%
372-389 147 -12.2%
390-404 175 -1.0%
405-418 209 -0.3%
419-444 157 0.6%
445-460 159 1.4%
461-513 122 3.3%
514-552 140 0.3%
553+ 180 2.2%

There’s one obvious defect with this calculation. I didn’t have the price per sq ft for April 2006, so I had to use the price per sq ft for all of 2006. But the data seem to say that that the lower half of the OC market is doing worse than the top half.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Bugs, you are right. Median prices for a few selected zip codes are not a reliable indicator of a trend.

To understand where the high end market in OC, or any other market, is going, I prefer to look at prices per sq ft and aggregate across all the relevant zip codes. Specifically, calculate the % change in price per square foot separately for each zip code, and then average across all the zip codes relevant to the market you’re looking at, weighting each zip code by the number of sales in that area.

I did a version of this for OC. I arranged all of OC’s zip codes by the April 2007 price per square foot, in increasing order. I divided them into 10 groups so that each group had about 10% of total April 2007 sales. For each zip code I calculated the % change in the price per sq ft from 2006 to April 2007. Within each of the 10 groups, I then averaged the resulting %’s, weighting each % by the number of April 2007 sales. Here are the results:

Price/sqft #Sales %PriceChange
Total 1,650 -2.3%

0-357 184 -11.0%
358-371 177 -4.6%
372-389 147 -12.2%
390-404 175 -1.0%
405-418 209 -0.3%
419-444 157 0.6%
445-460 159 1.4%
461-513 122 3.3%
514-552 140 0.3%
553+ 180 2.2%

There’s one obvious defect with this calculation. I didn’t have the price per sq ft for April 2006, so I had to use the price per sq ft for all of 2006. But the data seem to say that that the lower half of the OC market is doing worse than the top half.

Patient renter in OC

[latesummer2008]

What about the LOT? This is another obvious defect in your calculations. Most $/sqft prices don’t take into effect the size of the LOT (Land). Most of the value of an SFR in So. Cal is in the LAND.

Probably 80% in most cases…..

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

What about the LOT? This is another obvious defect in your calculations. Most $/sqft prices don’t take into effect the size of the LOT (Land). Most of the value of an SFR in So. Cal is in the LAND.

Probably 80% in most cases…..

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[Author]

Posts