“Long bear markets are a natural outgrowth of long bull markets Stocks remain expensive. Even if earnings grow at historic rates, stocks could provide poor returns over the next 5-10 years.
Credit is the driver of speculative manias. Historically, once credit becomes less available, asset prices suffer.
Higher interest rates Credit creators become less willing to lend (delinquencies rise, spreads collapse)Creditors become less able to lend (Regulators continue to constrain Fannie & Freddie)
Debt service becomes a drag on economy
Financial accident (hedge fund “blow up,” bank failure, market panic, derivatives incident)
Less foreign (& central bank) enthusiasm for US securities.”
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