Employment is down and so is early stock trading ` 200+ points….

[cr]

Up close to 100 today on the jobs report. More teachers, bar tenders, servers, nurses, and hotel maids, means more people who can afford over-priced houses, $3+ gasoline, and higher food costs than ever apparently.

As a result the financials climb? I’d feel much better if these were higher paying white collar jobs. The death of this bull market gets uglier everyday it doesn’t happen.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

A few months ago the S&P 500 was trading near a 12-year low in terms of Price-to-Earnings. Why do people think the stock market is significantly overvalued ? When the same principle was applied to housing (see Bubble Primer on this site), there was clearly a large deviation from historical norms. The same is not true currently for stocks. Stocks are trading very close to their long-term norm.

[nostradamus]

I’m playing around with some short stocks and they’re doing kinda crappy today. Anyhow, enjoy the schadenfreude.

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[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

You’re only down about 3% overall. These stocks were already down by 50-70% from their peak when you shorted. I would expect some snap-back rallies on these occasionally against your position. It is way too early to go long on these and maybe too late to expect more HUGE moves to the down side. However, I’d guess that you’ll have some opportunities to close these positions at a decent gain of 10% or more sometime times over the next few months.

[nostradamus]

Yes, I’m hoping for just a 5 to 10% gain overall on these, not trying to get rich. I sold short at what I thought was the top of one of the snap-back rallies you described, but it climbed a bit against all reason, mainly because bulls think housing has hit the bottom and they are getting deals. Personal experience tells me otherwise: I have one friend who is getting kicked out of his rental because the owner has lost his home, another friend who is considering walking, and a contractor/builder acquaintance who is ready to go bankrupt and willing to take work at 1/4 the fees he charged in the boom times. So I’m going short on builders and materials.

[cr]

I’m totally in favor of the stock market going up, but I’m leary because I think so much of the market is driven higher by debt and speculation, not real company performance, and consumer spending power.

Any day that moves over 100 I expect to be followed somewhat closely by a significant drop until this mortgage mess plays out.

I’m only recently at a point of considering investing in some MFs or ETFs. Since savings rates are so low I’m reaserching funds that might weather this storm better than cash.

[nostradamus]

Me too. All my junk is in CDs but it would be nice to have a juicy etf right now that could withstand subprime, politics (especially middle east i.e. oil), and irrational exuberance. There’s so much going on right now with Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea, China, Europe, and the U.S.A. I guess we could go to Africa, India, or South America, but those guys are affected by everyone else. Aaargh! When I think about it I run back to CDs.

[Coronita]

Once upon a time I use to laugh when a canadian friend talks in terms of Canadian dollars. I would joke that, oh wait that's worth .0001 usd.

 

Well, I guess the joke is on me now.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CADUSD=X

1 CAN = 1.0197 USD

But something that is interesting. Has anyone noticed that even though the USD has devalued relative to CAN, that prices of Cars in canada are completely wacked relative to car prices here? Or for that matter, magazines….

 

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[nostradamus]

My shorts are doing better today. On Friday I was down $700, today I’m up $144, let’s see what tomorrow holds! What a crazy market.

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[nostradamus]

My shorts are doing better today. On Friday I was down $700, today I’m up $144, let’s see what tomorrow holds! What a crazy market.

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[nostradamus]

I’m now up 5%, it’s only been a week. This is better than any cd, and less tax to boot. I’m gonna get greedy and see if I can make 10%.

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[nostradamus]

I’m now up 5%, it’s only been a week. This is better than any cd, and less tax to boot. I’m gonna get greedy and see if I can make 10%.

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[nostradamus]

ok last post: 11% ROI in 9 days. Thweeeeet! I love this market.

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[nostradamus]

ok last post: 11% ROI in 9 days. Thweeeeet! I love this market.

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[HereWeGo]

might be up more tomorrow, nostradamus. E-Trade just released a brutal earnings statement: link

If the story gets out that prime HELOC loans are beginning to sour, ouch.

[Author]

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