Economy and shopping in SD

[moneymaker]

I agree lifeisgood, I too am always perplexed when I go to the mall or movies and can’t find parking. Fortunately this is only a couple times of month so I soon “forget about it”. My wife often hears me say “what recession” when we are driving around Costco looking for parking.

[lifeisgood]

I grew up in tennessee. I know it isn’t the most sophisticated state in the country. Being in the military, I have lived in five states and I’ve noticed the differences in culture per state. I personally believe that san diego is more self conscious about appearance and image than other states I’ve lived in. Most people in other states are not concerned about how they look when they go to the grocery store. People dress well here almost as if they are worried they might run into someone they know. My opinion is that with or without cash, a lot of people are going to dress nice no matter what there income is.

[lifeisgood]

I grew up in tennessee. I know it isn’t the most sophisticated state in the country. Being in the military, I have lived in five states and I’ve noticed the differences in culture per state. I personally believe that san diego is more self conscious about appearance and image than other states I’ve lived in. Most people in other states are not concerned about how they look when they go to the grocery store. People dress well here almost as if they are worried they might run into someone they know. My opinion is that with or without cash, a lot of people are going to dress nice no matter what there income is.

[lifeisgood]

I grew up in tennessee. I know it isn’t the most sophisticated state in the country. Being in the military, I have lived in five states and I’ve noticed the differences in culture per state. I personally believe that san diego is more self conscious about appearance and image than other states I’ve lived in. Most people in other states are not concerned about how they look when they go to the grocery store. People dress well here almost as if they are worried they might run into someone they know. My opinion is that with or without cash, a lot of people are going to dress nice no matter what there income is.

[lifeisgood]

I grew up in tennessee. I know it isn’t the most sophisticated state in the country. Being in the military, I have lived in five states and I’ve noticed the differences in culture per state. I personally believe that san diego is more self conscious about appearance and image than other states I’ve lived in. Most people in other states are not concerned about how they look when they go to the grocery store. People dress well here almost as if they are worried they might run into someone they know. My opinion is that with or without cash, a lot of people are going to dress nice no matter what there income is.

[lifeisgood]

I grew up in tennessee. I know it isn’t the most sophisticated state in the country. Being in the military, I have lived in five states and I’ve noticed the differences in culture per state. I personally believe that san diego is more self conscious about appearance and image than other states I’ve lived in. Most people in other states are not concerned about how they look when they go to the grocery store. People dress well here almost as if they are worried they might run into someone they know. My opinion is that with or without cash, a lot of people are going to dress nice no matter what there income is.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Lots of fairly high-priced restaurants in Temecula/Murietta are packed on weekends. It’s supposed to be one of the epicentres of the housing crisis, but you’d never know the economy took a hit if you only observed the traffic in these restaurants.

It bugs my wife because I always ponder it every time we eat out. My only theory is that it is strategic defaulters with extra cash flow because they are not paying their mortgages. But I’ve been observing this for years, and I’m still perplexed.[/quote]

pri dk, Temecula/Murietta is a lower-cost housing area. There are MANY homeowners there who DID NOT purchase their properties at high prices (they purchased pre-bubble). In addition, there are many lower-cost rentals there and even a few mobile home parks.

Not everyone has high living expenses or high property taxes. MANY people (including most Mexicans living in MX) have FAR cheaper living expenses than a “typical Pigg.” Therefore, they have more discretionary income for restaurants and entertainment.

LOTS of people eat out almost daily in lower cost-of-living regions of the US. MANY eat in the SAME 1-3 restaurants night after night.[/quote]

Actually the low cost rental part is a common misconception. A condo that you can buy for 170k will cost you 1500 and up to rent. A 1 br apartment is at or over 1k (and can be bought for 80k). When I was renting here I marveled at how high the rents were in comparison. Had I not been strategically renting and waiting to buy, I would have moved, paid maybe 20% more in rent for a propery worth at least double. Now I’m speaking of Temecula and not areas 15 miles away that many lump in. Another exmple is my model match on my street just rented for $2600, the time between tenants was about two days. The owner bought that place for about 340K, so at most levels (small, medium and large) renting seems to be equal to costlier than buying.

But to answer the riddle of why there doesn’t seem to be a slowdown locally, BG is correct on many counts, not everyone is bubble buyer and the area has churned out most of those folks years ago. This area was hit a lot earlier than most, it’s been four years since the brown lawns first started showing up, it’s August, I don’t see any brown lawns now and my tract is dead center meltdown, being built in 2006, but there even here, the half price buyers outnumber the bubble 2-1.

I say just look at the census data, household incomes on par with Carlsbad (70k+) and mortgages at less than half of almost any area in SD county. Maybe 10% are unemployed, but the other 90% have more disposable income. Just ask the piggs that live up here, many of them probably have household incomes of over 100k and total housing debt somewhere in the 200’s, maybe 300k. Life is a whole lot easier when the lion share of your pay doesn’t go to housing.

And it’s not just weekends, ask sdr, he and his crew came up a few weeks ago on a Sunday night. We went to a concert in the wine country, sold out for seats, we had to pay $60 each to stand in the back. My car was embarrassed to be parked alongside the hundreds of nice cars in the lot. Then we went to dinner, on a Sunday night, late, like 830 or 9, packed as well, and it was not an inexpensive place or a family place.

Some businesses have gone under and maybe more people are using their entertainment dollars locally instead of travelling this summer, but the theory that it is because people aren’t paying their mortgages has lost it’s legs.

An article just came out saying that it could be the local travel, that the 15 hotels are reporting a 10% increase in occupancy.

http://www.pe.com/rss/business/stories/PE_Biz_D_temechotels10.34ef6dc.html

TEMECULA VALLEY Southern California Wine Country: August 8, 2011- “July saw the eleventh consecutive month of positive, local hotel industry growth,” reports Kimberly Adams, Temecula Valley Convention & Visitors Bureau president and CEO. “For the month of July, room occupancy was up 15.8% and revenues were up 19.5% versus July last year. Year-to-date through June 30, room occupancy is up 10% and revenues are up 10.4%. By comparison, California – which is the Number 1 travel destination and tourism state in the U.S. – is up 5%.”

So maybe it’s just the tourists?

[temeculaguy]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Lots of fairly high-priced restaurants in Temecula/Murietta are packed on weekends. It’s supposed to be one of the epicentres of the housing crisis, but you’d never know the economy took a hit if you only observed the traffic in these restaurants.

It bugs my wife because I always ponder it every time we eat out. My only theory is that it is strategic defaulters with extra cash flow because they are not paying their mortgages. But I’ve been observing this for years, and I’m still perplexed.[/quote]

pri dk, Temecula/Murietta is a lower-cost housing area. There are MANY homeowners there who DID NOT purchase their properties at high prices (they purchased pre-bubble). In addition, there are many lower-cost rentals there and even a few mobile home parks.

Not everyone has high living expenses or high property taxes. MANY people (including most Mexicans living in MX) have FAR cheaper living expenses than a “typical Pigg.” Therefore, they have more discretionary income for restaurants and entertainment.

LOTS of people eat out almost daily in lower cost-of-living regions of the US. MANY eat in the SAME 1-3 restaurants night after night.[/quote]

Actually the low cost rental part is a common misconception. A condo that you can buy for 170k will cost you 1500 and up to rent. A 1 br apartment is at or over 1k (and can be bought for 80k). When I was renting here I marveled at how high the rents were in comparison. Had I not been strategically renting and waiting to buy, I would have moved, paid maybe 20% more in rent for a propery worth at least double. Now I’m speaking of Temecula and not areas 15 miles away that many lump in. Another exmple is my model match on my street just rented for $2600, the time between tenants was about two days. The owner bought that place for about 340K, so at most levels (small, medium and large) renting seems to be equal to costlier than buying.

But to answer the riddle of why there doesn’t seem to be a slowdown locally, BG is correct on many counts, not everyone is bubble buyer and the area has churned out most of those folks years ago. This area was hit a lot earlier than most, it’s been four years since the brown lawns first started showing up, it’s August, I don’t see any brown lawns now and my tract is dead center meltdown, being built in 2006, but there even here, the half price buyers outnumber the bubble 2-1.

I say just look at the census data, household incomes on par with Carlsbad (70k+) and mortgages at less than half of almost any area in SD county. Maybe 10% are unemployed, but the other 90% have more disposable income. Just ask the piggs that live up here, many of them probably have household incomes of over 100k and total housing debt somewhere in the 200’s, maybe 300k. Life is a whole lot easier when the lion share of your pay doesn’t go to housing.

And it’s not just weekends, ask sdr, he and his crew came up a few weeks ago on a Sunday night. We went to a concert in the wine country, sold out for seats, we had to pay $60 each to stand in the back. My car was embarrassed to be parked alongside the hundreds of nice cars in the lot. Then we went to dinner, on a Sunday night, late, like 830 or 9, packed as well, and it was not an inexpensive place or a family place.

Some businesses have gone under and maybe more people are using their entertainment dollars locally instead of travelling this summer, but the theory that it is because people aren’t paying their mortgages has lost it’s legs.

An article just came out saying that it could be the local travel, that the 15 hotels are reporting a 10% increase in occupancy.

http://www.pe.com/rss/business/stories/PE_Biz_D_temechotels10.34ef6dc.html

TEMECULA VALLEY Southern California Wine Country: August 8, 2011- “July saw the eleventh consecutive month of positive, local hotel industry growth,” reports Kimberly Adams, Temecula Valley Convention & Visitors Bureau president and CEO. “For the month of July, room occupancy was up 15.8% and revenues were up 19.5% versus July last year. Year-to-date through June 30, room occupancy is up 10% and revenues are up 10.4%. By comparison, California – which is the Number 1 travel destination and tourism state in the U.S. – is up 5%.”

So maybe it’s just the tourists?

[temeculaguy]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Lots of fairly high-priced restaurants in Temecula/Murietta are packed on weekends. It’s supposed to be one of the epicentres of the housing crisis, but you’d never know the economy took a hit if you only observed the traffic in these restaurants.

It bugs my wife because I always ponder it every time we eat out. My only theory is that it is strategic defaulters with extra cash flow because they are not paying their mortgages. But I’ve been observing this for years, and I’m still perplexed.[/quote]

pri dk, Temecula/Murietta is a lower-cost housing area. There are MANY homeowners there who DID NOT purchase their properties at high prices (they purchased pre-bubble). In addition, there are many lower-cost rentals there and even a few mobile home parks.

Not everyone has high living expenses or high property taxes. MANY people (including most Mexicans living in MX) have FAR cheaper living expenses than a “typical Pigg.” Therefore, they have more discretionary income for restaurants and entertainment.

LOTS of people eat out almost daily in lower cost-of-living regions of the US. MANY eat in the SAME 1-3 restaurants night after night.[/quote]

Actually the low cost rental part is a common misconception. A condo that you can buy for 170k will cost you 1500 and up to rent. A 1 br apartment is at or over 1k (and can be bought for 80k). When I was renting here I marveled at how high the rents were in comparison. Had I not been strategically renting and waiting to buy, I would have moved, paid maybe 20% more in rent for a propery worth at least double. Now I’m speaking of Temecula and not areas 15 miles away that many lump in. Another exmple is my model match on my street just rented for $2600, the time between tenants was about two days. The owner bought that place for about 340K, so at most levels (small, medium and large) renting seems to be equal to costlier than buying.

But to answer the riddle of why there doesn’t seem to be a slowdown locally, BG is correct on many counts, not everyone is bubble buyer and the area has churned out most of those folks years ago. This area was hit a lot earlier than most, it’s been four years since the brown lawns first started showing up, it’s August, I don’t see any brown lawns now and my tract is dead center meltdown, being built in 2006, but there even here, the half price buyers outnumber the bubble 2-1.

I say just look at the census data, household incomes on par with Carlsbad (70k+) and mortgages at less than half of almost any area in SD county. Maybe 10% are unemployed, but the other 90% have more disposable income. Just ask the piggs that live up here, many of them probably have household incomes of over 100k and total housing debt somewhere in the 200’s, maybe 300k. Life is a whole lot easier when the lion share of your pay doesn’t go to housing.

And it’s not just weekends, ask sdr, he and his crew came up a few weeks ago on a Sunday night. We went to a concert in the wine country, sold out for seats, we had to pay $60 each to stand in the back. My car was embarrassed to be parked alongside the hundreds of nice cars in the lot. Then we went to dinner, on a Sunday night, late, like 830 or 9, packed as well, and it was not an inexpensive place or a family place.

Some businesses have gone under and maybe more people are using their entertainment dollars locally instead of travelling this summer, but the theory that it is because people aren’t paying their mortgages has lost it’s legs.

An article just came out saying that it could be the local travel, that the 15 hotels are reporting a 10% increase in occupancy.

http://www.pe.com/rss/business/stories/PE_Biz_D_temechotels10.34ef6dc.html

TEMECULA VALLEY Southern California Wine Country: August 8, 2011- “July saw the eleventh consecutive month of positive, local hotel industry growth,” reports Kimberly Adams, Temecula Valley Convention & Visitors Bureau president and CEO. “For the month of July, room occupancy was up 15.8% and revenues were up 19.5% versus July last year. Year-to-date through June 30, room occupancy is up 10% and revenues are up 10.4%. By comparison, California – which is the Number 1 travel destination and tourism state in the U.S. – is up 5%.”

So maybe it’s just the tourists?

[temeculaguy]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Lots of fairly high-priced restaurants in Temecula/Murietta are packed on weekends. It’s supposed to be one of the epicentres of the housing crisis, but you’d never know the economy took a hit if you only observed the traffic in these restaurants.

It bugs my wife because I always ponder it every time we eat out. My only theory is that it is strategic defaulters with extra cash flow because they are not paying their mortgages. But I’ve been observing this for years, and I’m still perplexed.[/quote]

pri dk, Temecula/Murietta is a lower-cost housing area. There are MANY homeowners there who DID NOT purchase their properties at high prices (they purchased pre-bubble). In addition, there are many lower-cost rentals there and even a few mobile home parks.

Not everyone has high living expenses or high property taxes. MANY people (including most Mexicans living in MX) have FAR cheaper living expenses than a “typical Pigg.” Therefore, they have more discretionary income for restaurants and entertainment.

LOTS of people eat out almost daily in lower cost-of-living regions of the US. MANY eat in the SAME 1-3 restaurants night after night.[/quote]

Actually the low cost rental part is a common misconception. A condo that you can buy for 170k will cost you 1500 and up to rent. A 1 br apartment is at or over 1k (and can be bought for 80k). When I was renting here I marveled at how high the rents were in comparison. Had I not been strategically renting and waiting to buy, I would have moved, paid maybe 20% more in rent for a propery worth at least double. Now I’m speaking of Temecula and not areas 15 miles away that many lump in. Another exmple is my model match on my street just rented for $2600, the time between tenants was about two days. The owner bought that place for about 340K, so at most levels (small, medium and large) renting seems to be equal to costlier than buying.

But to answer the riddle of why there doesn’t seem to be a slowdown locally, BG is correct on many counts, not everyone is bubble buyer and the area has churned out most of those folks years ago. This area was hit a lot earlier than most, it’s been four years since the brown lawns first started showing up, it’s August, I don’t see any brown lawns now and my tract is dead center meltdown, being built in 2006, but there even here, the half price buyers outnumber the bubble 2-1.

I say just look at the census data, household incomes on par with Carlsbad (70k+) and mortgages at less than half of almost any area in SD county. Maybe 10% are unemployed, but the other 90% have more disposable income. Just ask the piggs that live up here, many of them probably have household incomes of over 100k and total housing debt somewhere in the 200’s, maybe 300k. Life is a whole lot easier when the lion share of your pay doesn’t go to housing.

And it’s not just weekends, ask sdr, he and his crew came up a few weeks ago on a Sunday night. We went to a concert in the wine country, sold out for seats, we had to pay $60 each to stand in the back. My car was embarrassed to be parked alongside the hundreds of nice cars in the lot. Then we went to dinner, on a Sunday night, late, like 830 or 9, packed as well, and it was not an inexpensive place or a family place.

Some businesses have gone under and maybe more people are using their entertainment dollars locally instead of travelling this summer, but the theory that it is because people aren’t paying their mortgages has lost it’s legs.

An article just came out saying that it could be the local travel, that the 15 hotels are reporting a 10% increase in occupancy.

http://www.pe.com/rss/business/stories/PE_Biz_D_temechotels10.34ef6dc.html

TEMECULA VALLEY Southern California Wine Country: August 8, 2011- “July saw the eleventh consecutive month of positive, local hotel industry growth,” reports Kimberly Adams, Temecula Valley Convention & Visitors Bureau president and CEO. “For the month of July, room occupancy was up 15.8% and revenues were up 19.5% versus July last year. Year-to-date through June 30, room occupancy is up 10% and revenues are up 10.4%. By comparison, California – which is the Number 1 travel destination and tourism state in the U.S. – is up 5%.”

So maybe it’s just the tourists?

[temeculaguy]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Lots of fairly high-priced restaurants in Temecula/Murietta are packed on weekends. It’s supposed to be one of the epicentres of the housing crisis, but you’d never know the economy took a hit if you only observed the traffic in these restaurants.

It bugs my wife because I always ponder it every time we eat out. My only theory is that it is strategic defaulters with extra cash flow because they are not paying their mortgages. But I’ve been observing this for years, and I’m still perplexed.[/quote]

pri dk, Temecula/Murietta is a lower-cost housing area. There are MANY homeowners there who DID NOT purchase their properties at high prices (they purchased pre-bubble). In addition, there are many lower-cost rentals there and even a few mobile home parks.

Not everyone has high living expenses or high property taxes. MANY people (including most Mexicans living in MX) have FAR cheaper living expenses than a “typical Pigg.” Therefore, they have more discretionary income for restaurants and entertainment.

LOTS of people eat out almost daily in lower cost-of-living regions of the US. MANY eat in the SAME 1-3 restaurants night after night.[/quote]

Actually the low cost rental part is a common misconception. A condo that you can buy for 170k will cost you 1500 and up to rent. A 1 br apartment is at or over 1k (and can be bought for 80k). When I was renting here I marveled at how high the rents were in comparison. Had I not been strategically renting and waiting to buy, I would have moved, paid maybe 20% more in rent for a propery worth at least double. Now I’m speaking of Temecula and not areas 15 miles away that many lump in. Another exmple is my model match on my street just rented for $2600, the time between tenants was about two days. The owner bought that place for about 340K, so at most levels (small, medium and large) renting seems to be equal to costlier than buying.

But to answer the riddle of why there doesn’t seem to be a slowdown locally, BG is correct on many counts, not everyone is bubble buyer and the area has churned out most of those folks years ago. This area was hit a lot earlier than most, it’s been four years since the brown lawns first started showing up, it’s August, I don’t see any brown lawns now and my tract is dead center meltdown, being built in 2006, but there even here, the half price buyers outnumber the bubble 2-1.

I say just look at the census data, household incomes on par with Carlsbad (70k+) and mortgages at less than half of almost any area in SD county. Maybe 10% are unemployed, but the other 90% have more disposable income. Just ask the piggs that live up here, many of them probably have household incomes of over 100k and total housing debt somewhere in the 200’s, maybe 300k. Life is a whole lot easier when the lion share of your pay doesn’t go to housing.

And it’s not just weekends, ask sdr, he and his crew came up a few weeks ago on a Sunday night. We went to a concert in the wine country, sold out for seats, we had to pay $60 each to stand in the back. My car was embarrassed to be parked alongside the hundreds of nice cars in the lot. Then we went to dinner, on a Sunday night, late, like 830 or 9, packed as well, and it was not an inexpensive place or a family place.

Some businesses have gone under and maybe more people are using their entertainment dollars locally instead of travelling this summer, but the theory that it is because people aren’t paying their mortgages has lost it’s legs.

An article just came out saying that it could be the local travel, that the 15 hotels are reporting a 10% increase in occupancy.

http://www.pe.com/rss/business/stories/PE_Biz_D_temechotels10.34ef6dc.html

TEMECULA VALLEY Southern California Wine Country: August 8, 2011- “July saw the eleventh consecutive month of positive, local hotel industry growth,” reports Kimberly Adams, Temecula Valley Convention & Visitors Bureau president and CEO. “For the month of July, room occupancy was up 15.8% and revenues were up 19.5% versus July last year. Year-to-date through June 30, room occupancy is up 10% and revenues are up 10.4%. By comparison, California – which is the Number 1 travel destination and tourism state in the U.S. – is up 5%.”

So maybe it’s just the tourists?

[eavesdropper]

Here on the other side of the world (D.C.), we’re seeing the same thing: malls packed, high-end stores not only staying in business, but opening more branches, Whole Foods selling out of $3.00 Mexican mangos and $7.00 boxed cereals. The bridal/prom business hasn’t taken a hit yet; in fact, their profits have increased at an impressive rate. What really floors me , however, is the number of new – AND very expensive – cars on the Washington beltway (and all other area roads). When we bought our Prius a couple years back, credit was still extremely tight following the screwups and bailouts. Yet, the dealer confirmed that $40,000 & $50,000 models were flying out the door. The streets of local middle- and working-class suburbs are filled with almost new fully-loaded oversized pickups that are utilized as personal/family vehicles: the average new F-350 Super-Duty is much more likely to have a payload of a gallon of milk and a couple bags of chips than it is to be carrying 30 bags of Sakrete, a pallet of pavers, and a ton of rip-rap.

The latest fast-growing trend in these parts is the two-truck family, in which the responsible parents have determined that the need for both mom and dad to each have a full-size shiny pickup to commute to their office jobs outweighs the concern for the safety and comfort of their 3 or 4 small children who are crowded into the rear truck cab seat where, although they may be forced to share seatbelts, they get to watch videos on the aftermarket DVD players that are just like the ones that dad and mom use in the front. Between the monthly installments on two truck loans, high-interest payments on the credit card used to pay the aftermarket installer, and the twice-weekly gas fill-ups, some area families are paying far more for transportation than they are for shelter.

I know that the job situation here is a little more stable than other areas of the country because of the availability of jobs with the federal government and government contractors. But there’s been plenty of layoffs, and no shortage of peoples who have been laid off for two years and over. I honestly don’t know where the money’s coming from. Housing sales are not terribly brisk, and some neighborhoods are showing significant deterioration due to homeowner property neglect. But from the looks of things, you’d never know that we’re experiencing a severe recession. The crowded shopping malls can be explained by behavior prior to the financial crisis: for many, many people here, shopping was their religion, and they came to the malls to worship. Many had inadequate incomes back then, also, but were able to acquire an endless supply of large-limit credit cards with which they could convince themselves and others of their affluence. Our malls were packed to their limits all the time back then, and articles in local publications featured residents who proudly confessed to spending 20 to 30 hours, or more, per week shopping. Since these people had no other activities in their lives, I didn’t expect an overnight change. But shopping addicts aren’t the same as “window shoppers”: shopping addiction is based on self-gratification, which requires the satisfying of several conditions – most notably, a purchase. I confess to being puzzled by the continuing crowded conditions at the mall, unless it is a case of power shoppers who come in on Saturday and buy stuff, and then come back a few days later to return it. That would certainly explain the low profits for retail.

But the whole new car/truck thing – and not just new, but new *expensive* – has me utterly perplexed. You can’t just stuff one of those in a shopping bag with the receipt, and bring it back to the retailer for a refund. Dealers are selling, and customers are buying, in a big way. The demand is so great that a huge automall is currently being built along the Beltway.

Just curious: Is this the case in SoCal?

[eavesdropper]

Here on the other side of the world (D.C.), we’re seeing the same thing: malls packed, high-end stores not only staying in business, but opening more branches, Whole Foods selling out of $3.00 Mexican mangos and $7.00 boxed cereals. The bridal/prom business hasn’t taken a hit yet; in fact, their profits have increased at an impressive rate. What really floors me , however, is the number of new – AND very expensive – cars on the Washington beltway (and all other area roads). When we bought our Prius a couple years back, credit was still extremely tight following the screwups and bailouts. Yet, the dealer confirmed that $40,000 & $50,000 models were flying out the door. The streets of local middle- and working-class suburbs are filled with almost new fully-loaded oversized pickups that are utilized as personal/family vehicles: the average new F-350 Super-Duty is much more likely to have a payload of a gallon of milk and a couple bags of chips than it is to be carrying 30 bags of Sakrete, a pallet of pavers, and a ton of rip-rap.

The latest fast-growing trend in these parts is the two-truck family, in which the responsible parents have determined that the need for both mom and dad to each have a full-size shiny pickup to commute to their office jobs outweighs the concern for the safety and comfort of their 3 or 4 small children who are crowded into the rear truck cab seat where, although they may be forced to share seatbelts, they get to watch videos on the aftermarket DVD players that are just like the ones that dad and mom use in the front. Between the monthly installments on two truck loans, high-interest payments on the credit card used to pay the aftermarket installer, and the twice-weekly gas fill-ups, some area families are paying far more for transportation than they are for shelter.

I know that the job situation here is a little more stable than other areas of the country because of the availability of jobs with the federal government and government contractors. But there’s been plenty of layoffs, and no shortage of peoples who have been laid off for two years and over. I honestly don’t know where the money’s coming from. Housing sales are not terribly brisk, and some neighborhoods are showing significant deterioration due to homeowner property neglect. But from the looks of things, you’d never know that we’re experiencing a severe recession. The crowded shopping malls can be explained by behavior prior to the financial crisis: for many, many people here, shopping was their religion, and they came to the malls to worship. Many had inadequate incomes back then, also, but were able to acquire an endless supply of large-limit credit cards with which they could convince themselves and others of their affluence. Our malls were packed to their limits all the time back then, and articles in local publications featured residents who proudly confessed to spending 20 to 30 hours, or more, per week shopping. Since these people had no other activities in their lives, I didn’t expect an overnight change. But shopping addicts aren’t the same as “window shoppers”: shopping addiction is based on self-gratification, which requires the satisfying of several conditions – most notably, a purchase. I confess to being puzzled by the continuing crowded conditions at the mall, unless it is a case of power shoppers who come in on Saturday and buy stuff, and then come back a few days later to return it. That would certainly explain the low profits for retail.

But the whole new car/truck thing – and not just new, but new *expensive* – has me utterly perplexed. You can’t just stuff one of those in a shopping bag with the receipt, and bring it back to the retailer for a refund. Dealers are selling, and customers are buying, in a big way. The demand is so great that a huge automall is currently being built along the Beltway.

Just curious: Is this the case in SoCal?

[eavesdropper]

Here on the other side of the world (D.C.), we’re seeing the same thing: malls packed, high-end stores not only staying in business, but opening more branches, Whole Foods selling out of $3.00 Mexican mangos and $7.00 boxed cereals. The bridal/prom business hasn’t taken a hit yet; in fact, their profits have increased at an impressive rate. What really floors me , however, is the number of new – AND very expensive – cars on the Washington beltway (and all other area roads). When we bought our Prius a couple years back, credit was still extremely tight following the screwups and bailouts. Yet, the dealer confirmed that $40,000 & $50,000 models were flying out the door. The streets of local middle- and working-class suburbs are filled with almost new fully-loaded oversized pickups that are utilized as personal/family vehicles: the average new F-350 Super-Duty is much more likely to have a payload of a gallon of milk and a couple bags of chips than it is to be carrying 30 bags of Sakrete, a pallet of pavers, and a ton of rip-rap.

The latest fast-growing trend in these parts is the two-truck family, in which the responsible parents have determined that the need for both mom and dad to each have a full-size shiny pickup to commute to their office jobs outweighs the concern for the safety and comfort of their 3 or 4 small children who are crowded into the rear truck cab seat where, although they may be forced to share seatbelts, they get to watch videos on the aftermarket DVD players that are just like the ones that dad and mom use in the front. Between the monthly installments on two truck loans, high-interest payments on the credit card used to pay the aftermarket installer, and the twice-weekly gas fill-ups, some area families are paying far more for transportation than they are for shelter.

I know that the job situation here is a little more stable than other areas of the country because of the availability of jobs with the federal government and government contractors. But there’s been plenty of layoffs, and no shortage of peoples who have been laid off for two years and over. I honestly don’t know where the money’s coming from. Housing sales are not terribly brisk, and some neighborhoods are showing significant deterioration due to homeowner property neglect. But from the looks of things, you’d never know that we’re experiencing a severe recession. The crowded shopping malls can be explained by behavior prior to the financial crisis: for many, many people here, shopping was their religion, and they came to the malls to worship. Many had inadequate incomes back then, also, but were able to acquire an endless supply of large-limit credit cards with which they could convince themselves and others of their affluence. Our malls were packed to their limits all the time back then, and articles in local publications featured residents who proudly confessed to spending 20 to 30 hours, or more, per week shopping. Since these people had no other activities in their lives, I didn’t expect an overnight change. But shopping addicts aren’t the same as “window shoppers”: shopping addiction is based on self-gratification, which requires the satisfying of several conditions – most notably, a purchase. I confess to being puzzled by the continuing crowded conditions at the mall, unless it is a case of power shoppers who come in on Saturday and buy stuff, and then come back a few days later to return it. That would certainly explain the low profits for retail.

But the whole new car/truck thing – and not just new, but new *expensive* – has me utterly perplexed. You can’t just stuff one of those in a shopping bag with the receipt, and bring it back to the retailer for a refund. Dealers are selling, and customers are buying, in a big way. The demand is so great that a huge automall is currently being built along the Beltway.

Just curious: Is this the case in SoCal?

[eavesdropper]

Here on the other side of the world (D.C.), we’re seeing the same thing: malls packed, high-end stores not only staying in business, but opening more branches, Whole Foods selling out of $3.00 Mexican mangos and $7.00 boxed cereals. The bridal/prom business hasn’t taken a hit yet; in fact, their profits have increased at an impressive rate. What really floors me , however, is the number of new – AND very expensive – cars on the Washington beltway (and all other area roads). When we bought our Prius a couple years back, credit was still extremely tight following the screwups and bailouts. Yet, the dealer confirmed that $40,000 & $50,000 models were flying out the door. The streets of local middle- and working-class suburbs are filled with almost new fully-loaded oversized pickups that are utilized as personal/family vehicles: the average new F-350 Super-Duty is much more likely to have a payload of a gallon of milk and a couple bags of chips than it is to be carrying 30 bags of Sakrete, a pallet of pavers, and a ton of rip-rap.

The latest fast-growing trend in these parts is the two-truck family, in which the responsible parents have determined that the need for both mom and dad to each have a full-size shiny pickup to commute to their office jobs outweighs the concern for the safety and comfort of their 3 or 4 small children who are crowded into the rear truck cab seat where, although they may be forced to share seatbelts, they get to watch videos on the aftermarket DVD players that are just like the ones that dad and mom use in the front. Between the monthly installments on two truck loans, high-interest payments on the credit card used to pay the aftermarket installer, and the twice-weekly gas fill-ups, some area families are paying far more for transportation than they are for shelter.

I know that the job situation here is a little more stable than other areas of the country because of the availability of jobs with the federal government and government contractors. But there’s been plenty of layoffs, and no shortage of peoples who have been laid off for two years and over. I honestly don’t know where the money’s coming from. Housing sales are not terribly brisk, and some neighborhoods are showing significant deterioration due to homeowner property neglect. But from the looks of things, you’d never know that we’re experiencing a severe recession. The crowded shopping malls can be explained by behavior prior to the financial crisis: for many, many people here, shopping was their religion, and they came to the malls to worship. Many had inadequate incomes back then, also, but were able to acquire an endless supply of large-limit credit cards with which they could convince themselves and others of their affluence. Our malls were packed to their limits all the time back then, and articles in local publications featured residents who proudly confessed to spending 20 to 30 hours, or more, per week shopping. Since these people had no other activities in their lives, I didn’t expect an overnight change. But shopping addicts aren’t the same as “window shoppers”: shopping addiction is based on self-gratification, which requires the satisfying of several conditions – most notably, a purchase. I confess to being puzzled by the continuing crowded conditions at the mall, unless it is a case of power shoppers who come in on Saturday and buy stuff, and then come back a few days later to return it. That would certainly explain the low profits for retail.

But the whole new car/truck thing – and not just new, but new *expensive* – has me utterly perplexed. You can’t just stuff one of those in a shopping bag with the receipt, and bring it back to the retailer for a refund. Dealers are selling, and customers are buying, in a big way. The demand is so great that a huge automall is currently being built along the Beltway.

Just curious: Is this the case in SoCal?

[Author]

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