Dow to be under 7,000 by year end: What do you think

[davelj]

The long-term trend suggests we need to return to 850 on the S&P. At best. I don’t think we’ll re-visit the 666 intra-day low from March ’09, but I’d be surprised if we don’t end up somewhere between 700 and 850 at some point over the next couple of years. Given how long we spent above trend over the last 15 years, to only have spent a few months cumulatively below trend over the period seems very unusual. “Normalcy” would be spending at least a few years below trend. And we’ll probably see that at some point.

[bubba99]

With the advent of high frequency trading, I am not sure what the future of the stock market might be.

Over half of all volumes are the high frequency trades from the big investment banks that are surely distorting the market. It may be that HF trades caused the plunge last month, and can hold the market at current levels no matter what happens in the economy.

The economy is spirialing down. Jobs are being lost even with a trillion in stimulus. Sooner or later the secondary jobs market will suffer. State, local government and Federal employees will lose their jobs as the spiral move further down.

At some point, the market should react in the same downward direction. U(6) the broader measure of unemployment is around 17%. This cannot support the market at current levels. The SGS alternative measure is closer to 22%. Dow jones companies cannot continue to keep current valuations for long as sales start to really decline. Plus, current valuations are tied to the ridiculously low interest rates available due to free fed money.

If fed funds rates were where they belong (around 6% where inflation really is) the market would be overvalued by two times.

The dow level will be completely dependent on how many people keep drinking the coolaide

[bubba99]

With the advent of high frequency trading, I am not sure what the future of the stock market might be.

Over half of all volumes are the high frequency trades from the big investment banks that are surely distorting the market. It may be that HF trades caused the plunge last month, and can hold the market at current levels no matter what happens in the economy.

The economy is spirialing down. Jobs are being lost even with a trillion in stimulus. Sooner or later the secondary jobs market will suffer. State, local government and Federal employees will lose their jobs as the spiral move further down.

At some point, the market should react in the same downward direction. U(6) the broader measure of unemployment is around 17%. This cannot support the market at current levels. The SGS alternative measure is closer to 22%. Dow jones companies cannot continue to keep current valuations for long as sales start to really decline. Plus, current valuations are tied to the ridiculously low interest rates available due to free fed money.

If fed funds rates were where they belong (around 6% where inflation really is) the market would be overvalued by two times.

The dow level will be completely dependent on how many people keep drinking the coolaide

[bubba99]

With the advent of high frequency trading, I am not sure what the future of the stock market might be.

Over half of all volumes are the high frequency trades from the big investment banks that are surely distorting the market. It may be that HF trades caused the plunge last month, and can hold the market at current levels no matter what happens in the economy.

The economy is spirialing down. Jobs are being lost even with a trillion in stimulus. Sooner or later the secondary jobs market will suffer. State, local government and Federal employees will lose their jobs as the spiral move further down.

At some point, the market should react in the same downward direction. U(6) the broader measure of unemployment is around 17%. This cannot support the market at current levels. The SGS alternative measure is closer to 22%. Dow jones companies cannot continue to keep current valuations for long as sales start to really decline. Plus, current valuations are tied to the ridiculously low interest rates available due to free fed money.

If fed funds rates were where they belong (around 6% where inflation really is) the market would be overvalued by two times.

The dow level will be completely dependent on how many people keep drinking the coolaide

[bubba99]

With the advent of high frequency trading, I am not sure what the future of the stock market might be.

Over half of all volumes are the high frequency trades from the big investment banks that are surely distorting the market. It may be that HF trades caused the plunge last month, and can hold the market at current levels no matter what happens in the economy.

The economy is spirialing down. Jobs are being lost even with a trillion in stimulus. Sooner or later the secondary jobs market will suffer. State, local government and Federal employees will lose their jobs as the spiral move further down.

At some point, the market should react in the same downward direction. U(6) the broader measure of unemployment is around 17%. This cannot support the market at current levels. The SGS alternative measure is closer to 22%. Dow jones companies cannot continue to keep current valuations for long as sales start to really decline. Plus, current valuations are tied to the ridiculously low interest rates available due to free fed money.

If fed funds rates were where they belong (around 6% where inflation really is) the market would be overvalued by two times.

The dow level will be completely dependent on how many people keep drinking the coolaide

[bubba99]

With the advent of high frequency trading, I am not sure what the future of the stock market might be.

Over half of all volumes are the high frequency trades from the big investment banks that are surely distorting the market. It may be that HF trades caused the plunge last month, and can hold the market at current levels no matter what happens in the economy.

The economy is spirialing down. Jobs are being lost even with a trillion in stimulus. Sooner or later the secondary jobs market will suffer. State, local government and Federal employees will lose their jobs as the spiral move further down.

At some point, the market should react in the same downward direction. U(6) the broader measure of unemployment is around 17%. This cannot support the market at current levels. The SGS alternative measure is closer to 22%. Dow jones companies cannot continue to keep current valuations for long as sales start to really decline. Plus, current valuations are tied to the ridiculously low interest rates available due to free fed money.

If fed funds rates were where they belong (around 6% where inflation really is) the market would be overvalued by two times.

The dow level will be completely dependent on how many people keep drinking the coolaide

[Vod-Vil]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/may/20/craig-venter-synthetic-life-genome

It is amazing to me that nobody sees the biotech sector about to EXPLODE.With Venter’s breakthrough millions of jobs will be created and the market will take off like never before.This will be bigger than the tech bubble and housing bubble combined.

[Vod-Vil]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/may/20/craig-venter-synthetic-life-genome

It is amazing to me that nobody sees the biotech sector about to EXPLODE.With Venter’s breakthrough millions of jobs will be created and the market will take off like never before.This will be bigger than the tech bubble and housing bubble combined.

[Vod-Vil]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/may/20/craig-venter-synthetic-life-genome

It is amazing to me that nobody sees the biotech sector about to EXPLODE.With Venter’s breakthrough millions of jobs will be created and the market will take off like never before.This will be bigger than the tech bubble and housing bubble combined.

[Vod-Vil]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/may/20/craig-venter-synthetic-life-genome

It is amazing to me that nobody sees the biotech sector about to EXPLODE.With Venter’s breakthrough millions of jobs will be created and the market will take off like never before.This will be bigger than the tech bubble and housing bubble combined.

[Vod-Vil]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/may/20/craig-venter-synthetic-life-genome

It is amazing to me that nobody sees the biotech sector about to EXPLODE.With Venter’s breakthrough millions of jobs will be created and the market will take off like never before.This will be bigger than the tech bubble and housing bubble combined.

[outtamojo]

“US geneticist Craig Venter’s ambition is to create organisms that are not only new, but lucrative”

I suppose they’re all gonna want houses too…

[outtamojo]

“US geneticist Craig Venter’s ambition is to create organisms that are not only new, but lucrative”

I suppose they’re all gonna want houses too…

[outtamojo]

“US geneticist Craig Venter’s ambition is to create organisms that are not only new, but lucrative”

I suppose they’re all gonna want houses too…

[outtamojo]

“US geneticist Craig Venter’s ambition is to create organisms that are not only new, but lucrative”

I suppose they’re all gonna want houses too…

[Author]

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