Distress Sale Stats

[SD Realtor]

Hopefully this will be a useful tidbit but it is not to scientific. Basically what I did was to try to parse through the past few years worth of solds in 6 month increments to get a percentage of distress sales in 4S Ranch.

Parameters –

I only search for detached homes, though many detached homes in 4S are actually condos and these did get caught in my search.

I also only searched in the remarks field for the following strings:

bank,short,reo,lender,forclos,foreclos,corporate,distress,trustee

The 4S search was done by searching 92127 for homes built since 1995. Again not scientific but more then likely a “good enough” metric for this exercise. We don’t care about total accuracy as much as useful trend analysis right?

Sometimes realtors don’t put text in the remarks field but they do in the confidential remarks field. So my numbers below will be a little optimistic but not by more then a tolerable variance.

COE Dates Total Sales “Distress Sales”
1/1/05-6/30/05 139 0
7/1/05-12/31/05 128 0
1/1/06-6/30/06 153 1
7/1/06-12/31/06 164 0
1/1/07-6/30/07 161 3
7/1/07-12/31/07 173 18
1/1/08-6/31/08 141 31
7/1/08-12/31/08 153 39

**A few observations**

I hand to manually look at the Distress sales as many hits came up that were false. Lots of people used “close to Fairbanks” and that hit cuz I searched for bank… so those falsies were weeded out.

Also as I said I possibly did not identify distress sales because of the search I did was not in the confidential remarks.

One BIG note is that for homes under 800k pretty much EVERY SINGLE ONE sold at or above list price. In a very very few cases were they sold for under list price and when it did happen it was not by much. As you crept in the 800-1M range you would see some places under list price but NONE by more then 6% and not more then half of the homes for sure. Over a million and there were more sharper reductions under list but again, not as many as I would have expected to see.

Another note is that the total sales is MUCH stronger then I would have thought. One explanation could be the builders using the MLS alot more in 07 and 08 then in 05 and 06. 3 years ago builders would laugh realtors out of the sales office. Not so much over the past few years.

Anyways hope this data is useful.

[UCGal]

Adding one more column to your data – distressed sales as percent of total sales – you can see that is dramatically increasing.

COE Dates Total Sales Distress Sales Percent
1/1/05-6/30/05 139 0 0.00%
7/1/05-12/31/05 128 0 0.00%
1/1/06-6/30/06 153 1 0.65%
7/1/06-12/31/06 164 0 0.00%
1/1/07-6/30/07 161 3 1.86%
7/1/07-12/31/07 173 18 10.40%
1/1/08-6/31/08 141 31 21.99%
7/1/08-12/31/08 153 39 25.49%

[UCGal]

Adding one more column to your data – distressed sales as percent of total sales – you can see that is dramatically increasing.

COE Dates Total Sales Distress Sales Percent
1/1/05-6/30/05 139 0 0.00%
7/1/05-12/31/05 128 0 0.00%
1/1/06-6/30/06 153 1 0.65%
7/1/06-12/31/06 164 0 0.00%
1/1/07-6/30/07 161 3 1.86%
7/1/07-12/31/07 173 18 10.40%
1/1/08-6/31/08 141 31 21.99%
7/1/08-12/31/08 153 39 25.49%

[UCGal]

Adding one more column to your data – distressed sales as percent of total sales – you can see that is dramatically increasing.

COE Dates Total Sales Distress Sales Percent
1/1/05-6/30/05 139 0 0.00%
7/1/05-12/31/05 128 0 0.00%
1/1/06-6/30/06 153 1 0.65%
7/1/06-12/31/06 164 0 0.00%
1/1/07-6/30/07 161 3 1.86%
7/1/07-12/31/07 173 18 10.40%
1/1/08-6/31/08 141 31 21.99%
7/1/08-12/31/08 153 39 25.49%

[UCGal]

Adding one more column to your data – distressed sales as percent of total sales – you can see that is dramatically increasing.

COE Dates Total Sales Distress Sales Percent
1/1/05-6/30/05 139 0 0.00%
7/1/05-12/31/05 128 0 0.00%
1/1/06-6/30/06 153 1 0.65%
7/1/06-12/31/06 164 0 0.00%
1/1/07-6/30/07 161 3 1.86%
7/1/07-12/31/07 173 18 10.40%
1/1/08-6/31/08 141 31 21.99%
7/1/08-12/31/08 153 39 25.49%

[UCGal]

Adding one more column to your data – distressed sales as percent of total sales – you can see that is dramatically increasing.

COE Dates Total Sales Distress Sales Percent
1/1/05-6/30/05 139 0 0.00%
7/1/05-12/31/05 128 0 0.00%
1/1/06-6/30/06 153 1 0.65%
7/1/06-12/31/06 164 0 0.00%
1/1/07-6/30/07 161 3 1.86%
7/1/07-12/31/07 173 18 10.40%
1/1/08-6/31/08 141 31 21.99%
7/1/08-12/31/08 153 39 25.49%

[jpinpb]

Some of the description on distressed sales, I’ve noticed, don’t have key words. Some just say something like, “Please contact agent for more information” or “Please contact broker for more information.”

[jpinpb]

Some of the description on distressed sales, I’ve noticed, don’t have key words. Some just say something like, “Please contact agent for more information” or “Please contact broker for more information.”

[jpinpb]

Some of the description on distressed sales, I’ve noticed, don’t have key words. Some just say something like, “Please contact agent for more information” or “Please contact broker for more information.”

[jpinpb]

Some of the description on distressed sales, I’ve noticed, don’t have key words. Some just say something like, “Please contact agent for more information” or “Please contact broker for more information.”

[jpinpb]

Some of the description on distressed sales, I’ve noticed, don’t have key words. Some just say something like, “Please contact agent for more information” or “Please contact broker for more information.”

[sdrealtor]

From my experience pouring over stats like this a few thoughts.

Sales are astonishing stable. In fact, when sales seemed to be lowest in SD County (2nd half 2007) they were highest in 4S.

Sales are slowing in 4S and should continue to do so because more will involve bank approvals for short sales which slows done the process.

Lower market pricing even by $25K can push a seller into short sale terrritory. It would be a rare 4S owner that bought new in 2005 or 2006 that isnt underwater, even those who made reasonable down payments. If forced to sell, most will result in short sales.

2009 and 2010 will be the years of the short sale in communities like 4S so prepare for long waits. IMO, this will restrict supply and slow down the sales process to allow the lower end homes to retain value relatively well. Dont expect to see $450K for a 2300 sq ft home anytime soon.

Loan modifications can help in an area like this where people have real jobs. Whether they will be at a level that actually makes a difference is yet to be seen, but they could definitely make a difference.

[sdrealtor]

From my experience pouring over stats like this a few thoughts.

Sales are astonishing stable. In fact, when sales seemed to be lowest in SD County (2nd half 2007) they were highest in 4S.

Sales are slowing in 4S and should continue to do so because more will involve bank approvals for short sales which slows done the process.

Lower market pricing even by $25K can push a seller into short sale terrritory. It would be a rare 4S owner that bought new in 2005 or 2006 that isnt underwater, even those who made reasonable down payments. If forced to sell, most will result in short sales.

2009 and 2010 will be the years of the short sale in communities like 4S so prepare for long waits. IMO, this will restrict supply and slow down the sales process to allow the lower end homes to retain value relatively well. Dont expect to see $450K for a 2300 sq ft home anytime soon.

Loan modifications can help in an area like this where people have real jobs. Whether they will be at a level that actually makes a difference is yet to be seen, but they could definitely make a difference.

[sdrealtor]

From my experience pouring over stats like this a few thoughts.

Sales are astonishing stable. In fact, when sales seemed to be lowest in SD County (2nd half 2007) they were highest in 4S.

Sales are slowing in 4S and should continue to do so because more will involve bank approvals for short sales which slows done the process.

Lower market pricing even by $25K can push a seller into short sale terrritory. It would be a rare 4S owner that bought new in 2005 or 2006 that isnt underwater, even those who made reasonable down payments. If forced to sell, most will result in short sales.

2009 and 2010 will be the years of the short sale in communities like 4S so prepare for long waits. IMO, this will restrict supply and slow down the sales process to allow the lower end homes to retain value relatively well. Dont expect to see $450K for a 2300 sq ft home anytime soon.

Loan modifications can help in an area like this where people have real jobs. Whether they will be at a level that actually makes a difference is yet to be seen, but they could definitely make a difference.

[sdrealtor]

From my experience pouring over stats like this a few thoughts.

Sales are astonishing stable. In fact, when sales seemed to be lowest in SD County (2nd half 2007) they were highest in 4S.

Sales are slowing in 4S and should continue to do so because more will involve bank approvals for short sales which slows done the process.

Lower market pricing even by $25K can push a seller into short sale terrritory. It would be a rare 4S owner that bought new in 2005 or 2006 that isnt underwater, even those who made reasonable down payments. If forced to sell, most will result in short sales.

2009 and 2010 will be the years of the short sale in communities like 4S so prepare for long waits. IMO, this will restrict supply and slow down the sales process to allow the lower end homes to retain value relatively well. Dont expect to see $450K for a 2300 sq ft home anytime soon.

Loan modifications can help in an area like this where people have real jobs. Whether they will be at a level that actually makes a difference is yet to be seen, but they could definitely make a difference.

[Author]

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