Deutsche Bank Short Sale

[patientrenter]

drunkle: “what would you do or think if the value of the place dropped as low as 125k? or even lower? 190k for a condo in escondido still sounds absurd…”

To get an idea of how low this condo MIGHT go, just look up the price of it, or comparable condos, in 1996-1998. Add 40% for inflation.

Patient renter in OC

[an]

drunkle: “what would you do or think if the value of the place dropped as low as 125k? or even lower? 190k for a condo in escondido still sounds absurd…”

How don’t know how much a place like this would rent for but @ 190k @ 5.25% 30 year fixed, the mortgage payment would be around $1000/month and @ 125k @ 5.25% 30 year fixed, payment would be around $700/month. That’s one way to do the comparison.

“To get an idea of how low this condo MIGHT go, just look up the price of it, or comparable condos, in 1996-1998. Add 40% for inflation.”

I don’t really agree with this logic because interest rate make a big difference. $125k @ 9.5% yield the same monthly payment as $190k @ 5.5%. It might be more logical to say, take 1996-1998 monthly payment and add 40%. Then you’d remove the interest rate variable.

[an]

drunkle: “what would you do or think if the value of the place dropped as low as 125k? or even lower? 190k for a condo in escondido still sounds absurd…”

How don’t know how much a place like this would rent for but @ 190k @ 5.25% 30 year fixed, the mortgage payment would be around $1000/month and @ 125k @ 5.25% 30 year fixed, payment would be around $700/month. That’s one way to do the comparison.

“To get an idea of how low this condo MIGHT go, just look up the price of it, or comparable condos, in 1996-1998. Add 40% for inflation.”

I don’t really agree with this logic because interest rate make a big difference. $125k @ 9.5% yield the same monthly payment as $190k @ 5.5%. It might be more logical to say, take 1996-1998 monthly payment and add 40%. Then you’d remove the interest rate variable.

[an]

drunkle: “what would you do or think if the value of the place dropped as low as 125k? or even lower? 190k for a condo in escondido still sounds absurd…”

How don’t know how much a place like this would rent for but @ 190k @ 5.25% 30 year fixed, the mortgage payment would be around $1000/month and @ 125k @ 5.25% 30 year fixed, payment would be around $700/month. That’s one way to do the comparison.

“To get an idea of how low this condo MIGHT go, just look up the price of it, or comparable condos, in 1996-1998. Add 40% for inflation.”

I don’t really agree with this logic because interest rate make a big difference. $125k @ 9.5% yield the same monthly payment as $190k @ 5.5%. It might be more logical to say, take 1996-1998 monthly payment and add 40%. Then you’d remove the interest rate variable.

[an]

drunkle: “what would you do or think if the value of the place dropped as low as 125k? or even lower? 190k for a condo in escondido still sounds absurd…”

How don’t know how much a place like this would rent for but @ 190k @ 5.25% 30 year fixed, the mortgage payment would be around $1000/month and @ 125k @ 5.25% 30 year fixed, payment would be around $700/month. That’s one way to do the comparison.

“To get an idea of how low this condo MIGHT go, just look up the price of it, or comparable condos, in 1996-1998. Add 40% for inflation.”

I don’t really agree with this logic because interest rate make a big difference. $125k @ 9.5% yield the same monthly payment as $190k @ 5.5%. It might be more logical to say, take 1996-1998 monthly payment and add 40%. Then you’d remove the interest rate variable.

[an]

drunkle: “what would you do or think if the value of the place dropped as low as 125k? or even lower? 190k for a condo in escondido still sounds absurd…”

How don’t know how much a place like this would rent for but @ 190k @ 5.25% 30 year fixed, the mortgage payment would be around $1000/month and @ 125k @ 5.25% 30 year fixed, payment would be around $700/month. That’s one way to do the comparison.

“To get an idea of how low this condo MIGHT go, just look up the price of it, or comparable condos, in 1996-1998. Add 40% for inflation.”

I don’t really agree with this logic because interest rate make a big difference. $125k @ 9.5% yield the same monthly payment as $190k @ 5.5%. It might be more logical to say, take 1996-1998 monthly payment and add 40%. Then you’d remove the interest rate variable.

[Fearful]

While you’re at it, ask how much the condo should price at with option arm / teaser rate / toxic shoxic loans.

The ONLY apples to apples comparison is house price. If you compare 30yr fixed, they were about the same in mid-90’s as now, so it’s a spurious argument anyway.

Furthermore, after adjusting for inflation, if anything, prices should fall below the mid-90’s nadir, as they should overshoot more to the negative, as they went further out of whack to the positive.

[Fearful]

While you’re at it, ask how much the condo should price at with option arm / teaser rate / toxic shoxic loans.

The ONLY apples to apples comparison is house price. If you compare 30yr fixed, they were about the same in mid-90’s as now, so it’s a spurious argument anyway.

Furthermore, after adjusting for inflation, if anything, prices should fall below the mid-90’s nadir, as they should overshoot more to the negative, as they went further out of whack to the positive.

[Fearful]

While you’re at it, ask how much the condo should price at with option arm / teaser rate / toxic shoxic loans.

The ONLY apples to apples comparison is house price. If you compare 30yr fixed, they were about the same in mid-90’s as now, so it’s a spurious argument anyway.

Furthermore, after adjusting for inflation, if anything, prices should fall below the mid-90’s nadir, as they should overshoot more to the negative, as they went further out of whack to the positive.

[Fearful]

While you’re at it, ask how much the condo should price at with option arm / teaser rate / toxic shoxic loans.

The ONLY apples to apples comparison is house price. If you compare 30yr fixed, they were about the same in mid-90’s as now, so it’s a spurious argument anyway.

Furthermore, after adjusting for inflation, if anything, prices should fall below the mid-90’s nadir, as they should overshoot more to the negative, as they went further out of whack to the positive.

[Fearful]

While you’re at it, ask how much the condo should price at with option arm / teaser rate / toxic shoxic loans.

The ONLY apples to apples comparison is house price. If you compare 30yr fixed, they were about the same in mid-90’s as now, so it’s a spurious argument anyway.

Furthermore, after adjusting for inflation, if anything, prices should fall below the mid-90’s nadir, as they should overshoot more to the negative, as they went further out of whack to the positive.

[drunkle]

patient:

if i actually did some research on it, my posting would fall out of the “nothing useful” category. besides, he didn’t post an address, i don’t have historical price data at my fingertips and i’m going on median prices circa 2000.

asia:

taking year 2000 median (200k) and making assumptions about escondido condo values relative to the median, 190k seems high, neglecting inflation… and interest rates. 1000/mo @ 5.25 seems generous… are rates really that low for the average buyer without 800+ credit score? add the ancillary costs/tax benefits, how does it compare? finally… it’s still escondido.

bottom line, my question was merely posed to the op: he isn’t concerned if prices fall to 190 from 210, but how would he feel about a much larger fall. this snowball is only now picking up steam, the rate of decline is increasing and prices a mere 6 months from now may be astounding. although, i do think a decent bump will be had this spring and summer from people like the op who really want to buy and are will to take what they imagine will be only a small bit of a hit.

[drunkle]

patient:

if i actually did some research on it, my posting would fall out of the “nothing useful” category. besides, he didn’t post an address, i don’t have historical price data at my fingertips and i’m going on median prices circa 2000.

asia:

taking year 2000 median (200k) and making assumptions about escondido condo values relative to the median, 190k seems high, neglecting inflation… and interest rates. 1000/mo @ 5.25 seems generous… are rates really that low for the average buyer without 800+ credit score? add the ancillary costs/tax benefits, how does it compare? finally… it’s still escondido.

bottom line, my question was merely posed to the op: he isn’t concerned if prices fall to 190 from 210, but how would he feel about a much larger fall. this snowball is only now picking up steam, the rate of decline is increasing and prices a mere 6 months from now may be astounding. although, i do think a decent bump will be had this spring and summer from people like the op who really want to buy and are will to take what they imagine will be only a small bit of a hit.

[drunkle]

patient:

if i actually did some research on it, my posting would fall out of the “nothing useful” category. besides, he didn’t post an address, i don’t have historical price data at my fingertips and i’m going on median prices circa 2000.

asia:

taking year 2000 median (200k) and making assumptions about escondido condo values relative to the median, 190k seems high, neglecting inflation… and interest rates. 1000/mo @ 5.25 seems generous… are rates really that low for the average buyer without 800+ credit score? add the ancillary costs/tax benefits, how does it compare? finally… it’s still escondido.

bottom line, my question was merely posed to the op: he isn’t concerned if prices fall to 190 from 210, but how would he feel about a much larger fall. this snowball is only now picking up steam, the rate of decline is increasing and prices a mere 6 months from now may be astounding. although, i do think a decent bump will be had this spring and summer from people like the op who really want to buy and are will to take what they imagine will be only a small bit of a hit.

[drunkle]

patient:

if i actually did some research on it, my posting would fall out of the “nothing useful” category. besides, he didn’t post an address, i don’t have historical price data at my fingertips and i’m going on median prices circa 2000.

asia:

taking year 2000 median (200k) and making assumptions about escondido condo values relative to the median, 190k seems high, neglecting inflation… and interest rates. 1000/mo @ 5.25 seems generous… are rates really that low for the average buyer without 800+ credit score? add the ancillary costs/tax benefits, how does it compare? finally… it’s still escondido.

bottom line, my question was merely posed to the op: he isn’t concerned if prices fall to 190 from 210, but how would he feel about a much larger fall. this snowball is only now picking up steam, the rate of decline is increasing and prices a mere 6 months from now may be astounding. although, i do think a decent bump will be had this spring and summer from people like the op who really want to buy and are will to take what they imagine will be only a small bit of a hit.

[Author]

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