Derby Hill in CV???

[SD Realtor]

Alex I think that one should run different scenarios on paper to see what COULD happen and how long things COULD take.

Speculating that getting back to 05 prices will happen “fast” needs to have a cause correct? If the “rise” to get to the 05 prices was not based on true value but rather a highly speculative environment that was fueled by lending standards that will not be present again, along with an entirely different credit market, then I need to see what will fuel the “fast” rise back to 05 price levels after this cycle runs it’s course. I feel as if after we are done with this cycle, (which will not be for awhile based on the two previous cycle durations, AND the amount of reset activity still in the pipeline) that the market will be in an much healthier state. That state would then dictate a slow measured appreciation rate, not the runaway train we saw over the past few years….

I think taking a measured approach like testing different depths of the depreciation cycle, and then a rise back up again based on a different rates of appreciation, say 3 or 4% per year will yield results that will support an argument (in either direction) a bit better.

Here is an example…..A home sells for 600k in 2005. Looses 40% of its value to 360k. Then at 4% per year it takes 10 years to get back to 532k. Now we did not factor in transaction costs either. See what I am saying?

SD Realtor

[Arraya]

jb,

Sorry about that… You’re right you can only get the purchase price. You can not get that information without a pay service. Just narrow your scope of information to houses for sale that were purchased in the last 2-3 years and watch them. That is probably the best you can do…

[Arraya]

jb,

Sorry about that… You’re right you can only get the purchase price. You can not get that information without a pay service. Just narrow your scope of information to houses for sale that were purchased in the last 2-3 years and watch them. That is probably the best you can do…

[Arraya]

jb,

Sorry about that… You’re right you can only get the purchase price. You can not get that information without a pay service. Just narrow your scope of information to houses for sale that were purchased in the last 2-3 years and watch them. That is probably the best you can do…

[NotCranky]

Some say they can’t afford to take the loss(200k or more) but they are comfortable riding it out. Are you comfortable riding it out if you lose your job or take a big cut in pay?I think that people who can’t afford to pay cash for the drop,and it could be is 40%50%, can’t afford the house and have a debtor mentality.

[NotCranky]

Some say they can’t afford to take the loss(200k or more) but they are comfortable riding it out. Are you comfortable riding it out if you lose your job or take a big cut in pay?I think that people who can’t afford to pay cash for the drop,and it could be is 40%50%, can’t afford the house and have a debtor mentality.

[NotCranky]

Some say they can’t afford to take the loss(200k or more) but they are comfortable riding it out. Are you comfortable riding it out if you lose your job or take a big cut in pay?I think that people who can’t afford to pay cash for the drop,and it could be is 40%50%, can’t afford the house and have a debtor mentality.

[peterk2001]

to justbought

Thank you very much for your helpful comments…You gave me some good insight into Derby Hill…Would you mind sending me an e-mail to [email protected], if you have time I would like to speak to you on the phone a little more about the neighborhood and the new school that is opening up. I am pretty stressed about the whole situation.

thanks!
peter

[peterk2001]

to justbought

Thank you very much for your helpful comments…You gave me some good insight into Derby Hill…Would you mind sending me an e-mail to [email protected], if you have time I would like to speak to you on the phone a little more about the neighborhood and the new school that is opening up. I am pretty stressed about the whole situation.

thanks!
peter

[peterk2001]

to justbought

Thank you very much for your helpful comments…You gave me some good insight into Derby Hill…Would you mind sending me an e-mail to [email protected], if you have time I would like to speak to you on the phone a little more about the neighborhood and the new school that is opening up. I am pretty stressed about the whole situation.

thanks!
peter

[Raybyrnes]

So if you are smart enough to wait it out while prices are going down what to say you are not going to be dumb enough to wait too long to jump back in. Anyone who has been living here for 7 years of longer and did not buy missed the boat once. What is to say they are not going to miss it again. Seems to me you might be smart to be renting relative to the guy buying in 2006 but you must really look pretty dumb compared to the guy who bought in 99.

Couldn’t buyers have created a site about renters in 1999 talking about the Kool Aid of renting.

Here’s a forecast there will be a handful of people the will time the market perfectly. For the rest they will either buy to early or buy too late. Just the way it is.

[Raybyrnes]

So if you are smart enough to wait it out while prices are going down what to say you are not going to be dumb enough to wait too long to jump back in. Anyone who has been living here for 7 years of longer and did not buy missed the boat once. What is to say they are not going to miss it again. Seems to me you might be smart to be renting relative to the guy buying in 2006 but you must really look pretty dumb compared to the guy who bought in 99.

Couldn’t buyers have created a site about renters in 1999 talking about the Kool Aid of renting.

Here’s a forecast there will be a handful of people the will time the market perfectly. For the rest they will either buy to early or buy too late. Just the way it is.

[Raybyrnes]

So if you are smart enough to wait it out while prices are going down what to say you are not going to be dumb enough to wait too long to jump back in. Anyone who has been living here for 7 years of longer and did not buy missed the boat once. What is to say they are not going to miss it again. Seems to me you might be smart to be renting relative to the guy buying in 2006 but you must really look pretty dumb compared to the guy who bought in 99.

Couldn’t buyers have created a site about renters in 1999 talking about the Kool Aid of renting.

Here’s a forecast there will be a handful of people the will time the market perfectly. For the rest they will either buy to early or buy too late. Just the way it is.

[Arraya]

Being glued to sites like this will sure help you get it pretty close though;)

[Arraya]

Being glued to sites like this will sure help you get it pretty close though;)

[Author]

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