Day of reckoning looms for the U.S. dollar

[bsrsharma]

The U.S. dollar’s day of reckoning may be inching closer as its status as a safe-haven currency fades with every uptick in stocks and commodities and its potential risks – debt and inflation – are brought under a harsher spotlight….

http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1612964

The part I can’t understand is this:

“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”

Can something like what is happening in California happen for US? i.e. Taxpayers simply not interested in paying back treasury obligations through taxation?

[CA renter]

If the U.S. loses its AAA credit rating, it (technically) means the govt will have to pay higher rates in order to borrow (sell Treasuries). It means the U.S. has a higher risk of default than another country that is AAA-rated.

We’ve been hearing rumors about this for awhile, so nobody really knows if anything really comes to pass. We’ve pretty much convinced many other countries (most who matter) to do the same thing via quantitative and qualitative easing. There seems to be some resistance now to go further, but again, it remains to be seen what happens outside of the rhetoric.

Disclosure: long Swiss Treasuries (who are basically in the same boat)

[bsrsharma]

China Grows More Picky About Debt

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/21/business/global/21reserves.html?_r=1&hpw

“..China has been exchanging one dollar-denominated asset for another — selling the debt of government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a hurry to buy Treasuries. While this has been clear for months, new data shows that China is also trading long-term Treasuries for short-term notes, highlighting Beijing’s concerns that inflation will erode the dollar’s value in the long run as America amasses record debt.

So China’s rising purchases of Treasuries do not represent the confident bet on America’s future that they might seem to be on the surface. For instance, China does not appear to be dumping euros or yen to buy Treasuries,..”

[peterb]

Wouldnt be too quick to call this a recovery just yet. Another hard dive in the markets and the US$ will probably rise strongly. All currencies are abused at this point in time. If anything, I would think gold will emerge more strongly over the next few years. But world commerce still trades in US$. This will probably not change when fear and risk aversion re-enter the markets.

[bsrsharma]

Time to legalize counterfeiting

Many Americans today believe certain illegal vices in our society should be decriminalized, taxed, and regulated. The most popular of these vices include marijuana smoking, prostitution, and all forms of gambling. The proponents for decriminalization believe that the new tax revenues produced would help support schools, healthcare, and the impoverished, ease the pain of taxpayers, and reduce the deficit. They also believe that transgressions such as these will take place no matter, but, if properly regulated, would be safer for society in general. It would be a win, win situation.

Unfortunately, when it comes to lowering taxes and helping the downtrodden, the best-laid government plans seem to fall short of expectations. However, there is one vice, one small illegal indiscretion, that, if decriminalized would solve all our problems. The United States needs to legalize the victimless crime known as counterfeiting….

http://www.renewamerica.us/columns/witkov/090522

[patientrenter]

I too don’t understand why sovereign US debt (denominated in dollars) wouldn’t always be AAA-rated. I thought the rating agencies only rated for legal default. When the US defaults, it will not be a legal default, it will be an effective but partial and indirect default using inflation.

[bsrsharma]

U.K. Company Bonds Fall After S&P Cuts Rating Outlook

U.K. corporate bonds fell the most in six weeks and the cost of hedging against losses on government debt jumped, after Standard & Poor’s cut the outlook on the nation’s AAA credit rating to “negative.” …

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aoQZU_FvUSJI&refer=uk

It just happened in UK. The S&P thumb rule seems to be to downgrade sovereign debt when debt exceeds GDP. U.S. is close to that.

See also http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=344843

(‘We’re Out of Money Now’: Obama Outlines Fiscal Challenges Facing US)

[4plexowner]

“I too don’t understand why sovereign US debt (denominated in dollars) wouldn’t always be AAA-rated.”

At what point does common sense tell people that a debt that can’t be repaid, won’t be repaid?

If the existing liabilities are already un-payable, how can we maintain that new debt is rated AAA?

The US liability list is currently $60 or $70 trillion dollars and most of this is unfunded – our president is acknowledging trillion dollar per year deficits for the next 10 years taking our liabilities to the $70-80 trillion range

At the same time we have this mountain of unfunded liabilities, we have a major demographic shift occurring where 25% of our workforce wants to retire and enjoy their golden years

This demographic shift will open up jobs for younger generations but place a larger and larger burden on Social Security and Medicare programs

I read recently that future generations would have to be three times as productive as us and pay 100% of their earnings towards taxes to ever pay off this debt load

Obviously this isn’t going to happen so we are back to my underlying premise: a debt that can’t be repaid won’t be repaid

~

The most recent default of US debt occurred in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window on international trade – the world had little option other than to go along with that default – now there are options as China is demonstrating (as an aside, we are seeing history in the making here as China converts the yuan to the world’s reserve currency of choice – this type of change only occurs every 200 or 300 years)

[patientrenter]

4plex, my point was that the US govt can ALWAYS repay its dollar-denominated debt, so the chance that it won’t seems vanishingly small to me. Yes, the real value of the repayments may shrivel due to inflation (and my opinion is that they will), but are the rating agencies really factoring in that future implicit partial default caused by inflation into their US Treasury credit risk ratings? Do they actually say that?

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter]4plex, my point was that the US govt can ALWAYS repay its dollar-denominated debt, so the chance that it won’t seems vanishingly small to me.
[/quote]

P Renter, I understand what you’re saying in principle, but here’s my question: what happens when the dollar becomes so devalued that our creditors refuse to accept it? In such a scenario, the US gov’t would NOT be able to repay its dollar-denominated debt. Imagine that a debtor with insanely high debts has consistently been paying a creditor with a currency of real value. Now, imagine the debtor discovers that he no longer has access to a currency holding real value and instead begins to offer his creditors sea shells as payment. Yes, the debtor is technically attempting repayment. But if the payments aren’t accepted, a default ensues. The facts in this analogy aren’t entirely similar (since we aren’t converting our dollars into another form of payment like sea shells), but the concept is the same. A debtor cannot repay a debt if her payments are rejected. I think you are assuming that as long as a debtor presents something that she considers to be of “value”, his creditor is obligated to accept such payment. I think this is a false assumption.

When (not if) the dollar loses its status as the sole reserve currency, I think we may be looking at the possibility that severely devalued US dollars will eventually not be accepted as payment for imports or any forms of foreign debt because the dollars that a creditor accepts today may be worth even less tomorrow! Instead, the US will be required to come up with stronger currency (or gold) to repay its debts. This would be a common sense move for any US creditor under the circumstances. And that’s when things will start to get very interesting.

By next summer, I think there are going to be a whole lot of people who wished they had gotten busy adding gold to their portfolio. It could be going parabolic within months. Of course, precious metals will eventually turn into another bubble in a few years, but the prudent investor will use their dollar profits to do what the Chinese have been doing for the past year: buy hard assets like land, food, guns, ammo, medicine, equipment, seeds, etc.

[patientrenter]

partypup, a default occurs when the person who is supposed to pay does not pay, not when the person who is owed refuses to accept the payments.

If receiving future dollars becomes less interesting as a reward for exporting real goods and services to the US, then either the value of the dollar will fall, or interest rates on dollar debt will rise. If the US govt is committed to manipulating interest rates down (as they clearly are) then the outcome will be a drop in the value of the dollar. If a 20% reduction is not enough to entice foreigners to sell us stuff on credit, then it will go to 30%, and if that is not enough…

Eventually, the dollar will reach a value that satisfies our foreign trade parties. It’s not going to be zero. I just don’t see why a large devaluation has to go all the way to zero. This is not how these things work historically. The US has problems, but it does have good infrastructure, food and water supply, open space, and other basics of a good modern life. At some point that puts a floor under the value of US assets and even the dollar.

[barnaby33]

patientrenter, you should know by now not to stop partypup when he gets wound up. Is entertaining.

We’re fucked, everyone else is fucked worse. The yuan/renmimbi is not about to become a global currency, though gold may increase in value. I have my doubts about that. If bond yields ramp/prices fall, the actual dollar (as in green paper) will strengthen. Inflation is more than likely our future, but we are still strongly in deflationary territory.

Josh

[Arraya]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5325805/Chinas-yuan-set-to-usurp-US-dollar-as-worlds-reserve-currency.html
The Chinese yuan is preparing to overtake the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, economist Nouriel Roubini has warned.

Professor Roubini, of New York University’s Stern business school, believes that while such a major change is some way off, the Chinese government is laying the ground for the yuan’s ascendance.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/996b1af8-43ce-11de-a9be-00144feabdc0.html
Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar, according to Brazil’s central bank and aides to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president.

The move follows recent Chinese challenges to the status of the dollar as the world’s leading international currency.

[Arraya]

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0521.html
Numerous events have taken place of global importance. Alone, each story seems of some significance. Together, they paint a mosaic of extreme change in a very dangerous sequence of events that fit together. The greater aggregate story is that a tremendous paradigm shift is underway, with early steps and major moves by global players in clear view. The Western analysts and pundits and mavens are missing it. A PARADIGM SHIFT HAS BEGUN, WITH BANKING POWER SHIFTING TO THE CREDITOR NATIONS AS THE USDOLLAR IS SUPPLANTED, MADE POSSIBLE BY SEVERAL NEW INSTITUTIONAL PILLARS AS WELL AS NEWLY FORGED ALLIANCES. The consequences are significant and will change the face of global banking and commerce. The Hat Trick Letter has described the various steps and their importance all along the way. Much more detail is provided for each major point to follow in the HTLetter reports. Some in the United States and England believe that a return to normalcy comes. They are wrong by 180 degrees. The G20 Meeting of finance ministers and heads of state was the warning. The message from that meeting in London has been long forgotten, a call made in my public article immediately after its conclusion. This article provides an outline of events that have occurred only in the last few weeks, as the pace is accelerating for transformation that begins at the foundation. Piece it all together, use some mental power, sprinkle with only a little imagination, connect some dots easily, and take a look at the global picture that is emerging. Yesterday came the crowning blow, as the United Arab Emirates rejected the Saudis in the Gulf monetary union. My belief is that the rising power in the UAE wants Russia instead of the Saudis, who are tied at the US hip.

[Arraya]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10755.html
The US dollar is not Russia’s basic reserve currency anymore. The euro-based share of reserve assets of Russia’s Central Bank increased to the level of 47.5 percent as of January 1, 2009 and exceeded the investments in dollar assets, which made up 41.5 percent, The Vedomosti newspaper wrote.

The dollar has thus lost the status of the basic reserve currency for the Russian Central Bank, the annual report, which the bank provided to the State Duma, said.

[Arraya]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JG30Cb01.html

The vast expansion of US-led globalized trade since the Cold War ended in 1991 had been fueled by unsustainable serial debt bubbles built on dollar hegemony, which came into existence on a global scale with the emergence of deregulated global financial markets that made cross-border flow of funds routine since the 1990s.

Dollar hegemony is a geopolitically constructed peculiarity through which critical commodities, the most notable being oil, are denominated in fiat dollars, not backed by gold or other species since then president Richard Nixon took the US dollar off gold in 1971. The recycling of petro-dollars into other dollar assets is the price the US has extracted from oil-producing countries for US tolerance of the oil-exporting cartel since 1973. After that, everyone accepts dollars because dollars can buy oil, and every

economy needs oil. Dollar hegemony separates the trade value of every currency from direct connection to the productivity of the issuing economy to link it directly to the size of dollar reserves held by the issuing central bank. Dollar hegemony enables the US to own indirectly but essentially the entire global economy by requiring its wealth to be denominated in fiat dollars that the US can print at will with little in the way of monetary penalties.

[Arraya]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JG30Cb01.html

The vast expansion of US-led globalized trade since the Cold War ended in 1991 had been fueled by unsustainable serial debt bubbles built on dollar hegemony, which came into existence on a global scale with the emergence of deregulated global financial markets that made cross-border flow of funds routine since the 1990s.

Dollar hegemony is a geopolitically constructed peculiarity through which critical commodities, the most notable being oil, are denominated in fiat dollars, not backed by gold or other species since then president Richard Nixon took the US dollar off gold in 1971. The recycling of petro-dollars into other dollar assets is the price the US has extracted from oil-producing countries for US tolerance of the oil-exporting cartel since 1973. After that, everyone accepts dollars because dollars can buy oil, and every

economy needs oil. Dollar hegemony separates the trade value of every currency from direct connection to the productivity of the issuing economy to link it directly to the size of dollar reserves held by the issuing central bank. Dollar hegemony enables the US to own indirectly but essentially the entire global economy by requiring its wealth to be denominated in fiat dollars that the US can print at will with little in the way of monetary penalties.

[Arraya]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JG30Cb01.html

The vast expansion of US-led globalized trade since the Cold War ended in 1991 had been fueled by unsustainable serial debt bubbles built on dollar hegemony, which came into existence on a global scale with the emergence of deregulated global financial markets that made cross-border flow of funds routine since the 1990s.

Dollar hegemony is a geopolitically constructed peculiarity through which critical commodities, the most notable being oil, are denominated in fiat dollars, not backed by gold or other species since then president Richard Nixon took the US dollar off gold in 1971. The recycling of petro-dollars into other dollar assets is the price the US has extracted from oil-producing countries for US tolerance of the oil-exporting cartel since 1973. After that, everyone accepts dollars because dollars can buy oil, and every

economy needs oil. Dollar hegemony separates the trade value of every currency from direct connection to the productivity of the issuing economy to link it directly to the size of dollar reserves held by the issuing central bank. Dollar hegemony enables the US to own indirectly but essentially the entire global economy by requiring its wealth to be denominated in fiat dollars that the US can print at will with little in the way of monetary penalties.

[Arraya]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JG30Cb01.html

The vast expansion of US-led globalized trade since the Cold War ended in 1991 had been fueled by unsustainable serial debt bubbles built on dollar hegemony, which came into existence on a global scale with the emergence of deregulated global financial markets that made cross-border flow of funds routine since the 1990s.

Dollar hegemony is a geopolitically constructed peculiarity through which critical commodities, the most notable being oil, are denominated in fiat dollars, not backed by gold or other species since then president Richard Nixon took the US dollar off gold in 1971. The recycling of petro-dollars into other dollar assets is the price the US has extracted from oil-producing countries for US tolerance of the oil-exporting cartel since 1973. After that, everyone accepts dollars because dollars can buy oil, and every

economy needs oil. Dollar hegemony separates the trade value of every currency from direct connection to the productivity of the issuing economy to link it directly to the size of dollar reserves held by the issuing central bank. Dollar hegemony enables the US to own indirectly but essentially the entire global economy by requiring its wealth to be denominated in fiat dollars that the US can print at will with little in the way of monetary penalties.

[Arraya]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JG30Cb01.html

The vast expansion of US-led globalized trade since the Cold War ended in 1991 had been fueled by unsustainable serial debt bubbles built on dollar hegemony, which came into existence on a global scale with the emergence of deregulated global financial markets that made cross-border flow of funds routine since the 1990s.

Dollar hegemony is a geopolitically constructed peculiarity through which critical commodities, the most notable being oil, are denominated in fiat dollars, not backed by gold or other species since then president Richard Nixon took the US dollar off gold in 1971. The recycling of petro-dollars into other dollar assets is the price the US has extracted from oil-producing countries for US tolerance of the oil-exporting cartel since 1973. After that, everyone accepts dollars because dollars can buy oil, and every

economy needs oil. Dollar hegemony separates the trade value of every currency from direct connection to the productivity of the issuing economy to link it directly to the size of dollar reserves held by the issuing central bank. Dollar hegemony enables the US to own indirectly but essentially the entire global economy by requiring its wealth to be denominated in fiat dollars that the US can print at will with little in the way of monetary penalties.

[Arraya]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10755.html
The US dollar is not Russia’s basic reserve currency anymore. The euro-based share of reserve assets of Russia’s Central Bank increased to the level of 47.5 percent as of January 1, 2009 and exceeded the investments in dollar assets, which made up 41.5 percent, The Vedomosti newspaper wrote.

The dollar has thus lost the status of the basic reserve currency for the Russian Central Bank, the annual report, which the bank provided to the State Duma, said.

[Arraya]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10755.html
The US dollar is not Russia’s basic reserve currency anymore. The euro-based share of reserve assets of Russia’s Central Bank increased to the level of 47.5 percent as of January 1, 2009 and exceeded the investments in dollar assets, which made up 41.5 percent, The Vedomosti newspaper wrote.

The dollar has thus lost the status of the basic reserve currency for the Russian Central Bank, the annual report, which the bank provided to the State Duma, said.

[Arraya]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10755.html
The US dollar is not Russia’s basic reserve currency anymore. The euro-based share of reserve assets of Russia’s Central Bank increased to the level of 47.5 percent as of January 1, 2009 and exceeded the investments in dollar assets, which made up 41.5 percent, The Vedomosti newspaper wrote.

The dollar has thus lost the status of the basic reserve currency for the Russian Central Bank, the annual report, which the bank provided to the State Duma, said.

[Arraya]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10755.html
The US dollar is not Russia’s basic reserve currency anymore. The euro-based share of reserve assets of Russia’s Central Bank increased to the level of 47.5 percent as of January 1, 2009 and exceeded the investments in dollar assets, which made up 41.5 percent, The Vedomosti newspaper wrote.

The dollar has thus lost the status of the basic reserve currency for the Russian Central Bank, the annual report, which the bank provided to the State Duma, said.

[Arraya]

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0521.html
Numerous events have taken place of global importance. Alone, each story seems of some significance. Together, they paint a mosaic of extreme change in a very dangerous sequence of events that fit together. The greater aggregate story is that a tremendous paradigm shift is underway, with early steps and major moves by global players in clear view. The Western analysts and pundits and mavens are missing it. A PARADIGM SHIFT HAS BEGUN, WITH BANKING POWER SHIFTING TO THE CREDITOR NATIONS AS THE USDOLLAR IS SUPPLANTED, MADE POSSIBLE BY SEVERAL NEW INSTITUTIONAL PILLARS AS WELL AS NEWLY FORGED ALLIANCES. The consequences are significant and will change the face of global banking and commerce. The Hat Trick Letter has described the various steps and their importance all along the way. Much more detail is provided for each major point to follow in the HTLetter reports. Some in the United States and England believe that a return to normalcy comes. They are wrong by 180 degrees. The G20 Meeting of finance ministers and heads of state was the warning. The message from that meeting in London has been long forgotten, a call made in my public article immediately after its conclusion. This article provides an outline of events that have occurred only in the last few weeks, as the pace is accelerating for transformation that begins at the foundation. Piece it all together, use some mental power, sprinkle with only a little imagination, connect some dots easily, and take a look at the global picture that is emerging. Yesterday came the crowning blow, as the United Arab Emirates rejected the Saudis in the Gulf monetary union. My belief is that the rising power in the UAE wants Russia instead of the Saudis, who are tied at the US hip.

[Arraya]

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0521.html
Numerous events have taken place of global importance. Alone, each story seems of some significance. Together, they paint a mosaic of extreme change in a very dangerous sequence of events that fit together. The greater aggregate story is that a tremendous paradigm shift is underway, with early steps and major moves by global players in clear view. The Western analysts and pundits and mavens are missing it. A PARADIGM SHIFT HAS BEGUN, WITH BANKING POWER SHIFTING TO THE CREDITOR NATIONS AS THE USDOLLAR IS SUPPLANTED, MADE POSSIBLE BY SEVERAL NEW INSTITUTIONAL PILLARS AS WELL AS NEWLY FORGED ALLIANCES. The consequences are significant and will change the face of global banking and commerce. The Hat Trick Letter has described the various steps and their importance all along the way. Much more detail is provided for each major point to follow in the HTLetter reports. Some in the United States and England believe that a return to normalcy comes. They are wrong by 180 degrees. The G20 Meeting of finance ministers and heads of state was the warning. The message from that meeting in London has been long forgotten, a call made in my public article immediately after its conclusion. This article provides an outline of events that have occurred only in the last few weeks, as the pace is accelerating for transformation that begins at the foundation. Piece it all together, use some mental power, sprinkle with only a little imagination, connect some dots easily, and take a look at the global picture that is emerging. Yesterday came the crowning blow, as the United Arab Emirates rejected the Saudis in the Gulf monetary union. My belief is that the rising power in the UAE wants Russia instead of the Saudis, who are tied at the US hip.

[Arraya]

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0521.html
Numerous events have taken place of global importance. Alone, each story seems of some significance. Together, they paint a mosaic of extreme change in a very dangerous sequence of events that fit together. The greater aggregate story is that a tremendous paradigm shift is underway, with early steps and major moves by global players in clear view. The Western analysts and pundits and mavens are missing it. A PARADIGM SHIFT HAS BEGUN, WITH BANKING POWER SHIFTING TO THE CREDITOR NATIONS AS THE USDOLLAR IS SUPPLANTED, MADE POSSIBLE BY SEVERAL NEW INSTITUTIONAL PILLARS AS WELL AS NEWLY FORGED ALLIANCES. The consequences are significant and will change the face of global banking and commerce. The Hat Trick Letter has described the various steps and their importance all along the way. Much more detail is provided for each major point to follow in the HTLetter reports. Some in the United States and England believe that a return to normalcy comes. They are wrong by 180 degrees. The G20 Meeting of finance ministers and heads of state was the warning. The message from that meeting in London has been long forgotten, a call made in my public article immediately after its conclusion. This article provides an outline of events that have occurred only in the last few weeks, as the pace is accelerating for transformation that begins at the foundation. Piece it all together, use some mental power, sprinkle with only a little imagination, connect some dots easily, and take a look at the global picture that is emerging. Yesterday came the crowning blow, as the United Arab Emirates rejected the Saudis in the Gulf monetary union. My belief is that the rising power in the UAE wants Russia instead of the Saudis, who are tied at the US hip.

[Arraya]

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0521.html
Numerous events have taken place of global importance. Alone, each story seems of some significance. Together, they paint a mosaic of extreme change in a very dangerous sequence of events that fit together. The greater aggregate story is that a tremendous paradigm shift is underway, with early steps and major moves by global players in clear view. The Western analysts and pundits and mavens are missing it. A PARADIGM SHIFT HAS BEGUN, WITH BANKING POWER SHIFTING TO THE CREDITOR NATIONS AS THE USDOLLAR IS SUPPLANTED, MADE POSSIBLE BY SEVERAL NEW INSTITUTIONAL PILLARS AS WELL AS NEWLY FORGED ALLIANCES. The consequences are significant and will change the face of global banking and commerce. The Hat Trick Letter has described the various steps and their importance all along the way. Much more detail is provided for each major point to follow in the HTLetter reports. Some in the United States and England believe that a return to normalcy comes. They are wrong by 180 degrees. The G20 Meeting of finance ministers and heads of state was the warning. The message from that meeting in London has been long forgotten, a call made in my public article immediately after its conclusion. This article provides an outline of events that have occurred only in the last few weeks, as the pace is accelerating for transformation that begins at the foundation. Piece it all together, use some mental power, sprinkle with only a little imagination, connect some dots easily, and take a look at the global picture that is emerging. Yesterday came the crowning blow, as the United Arab Emirates rejected the Saudis in the Gulf monetary union. My belief is that the rising power in the UAE wants Russia instead of the Saudis, who are tied at the US hip.

[Arraya]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5325805/Chinas-yuan-set-to-usurp-US-dollar-as-worlds-reserve-currency.html
The Chinese yuan is preparing to overtake the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, economist Nouriel Roubini has warned.

Professor Roubini, of New York University’s Stern business school, believes that while such a major change is some way off, the Chinese government is laying the ground for the yuan’s ascendance.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/996b1af8-43ce-11de-a9be-00144feabdc0.html
Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar, according to Brazil’s central bank and aides to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president.

The move follows recent Chinese challenges to the status of the dollar as the world’s leading international currency.

[Arraya]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5325805/Chinas-yuan-set-to-usurp-US-dollar-as-worlds-reserve-currency.html
The Chinese yuan is preparing to overtake the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, economist Nouriel Roubini has warned.

Professor Roubini, of New York University’s Stern business school, believes that while such a major change is some way off, the Chinese government is laying the ground for the yuan’s ascendance.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/996b1af8-43ce-11de-a9be-00144feabdc0.html
Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar, according to Brazil’s central bank and aides to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president.

The move follows recent Chinese challenges to the status of the dollar as the world’s leading international currency.

[Arraya]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5325805/Chinas-yuan-set-to-usurp-US-dollar-as-worlds-reserve-currency.html
The Chinese yuan is preparing to overtake the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, economist Nouriel Roubini has warned.

Professor Roubini, of New York University’s Stern business school, believes that while such a major change is some way off, the Chinese government is laying the ground for the yuan’s ascendance.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/996b1af8-43ce-11de-a9be-00144feabdc0.html
Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar, according to Brazil’s central bank and aides to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president.

The move follows recent Chinese challenges to the status of the dollar as the world’s leading international currency.

[Arraya]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5325805/Chinas-yuan-set-to-usurp-US-dollar-as-worlds-reserve-currency.html
The Chinese yuan is preparing to overtake the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, economist Nouriel Roubini has warned.

Professor Roubini, of New York University’s Stern business school, believes that while such a major change is some way off, the Chinese government is laying the ground for the yuan’s ascendance.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/996b1af8-43ce-11de-a9be-00144feabdc0.html
Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar, according to Brazil’s central bank and aides to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president.

The move follows recent Chinese challenges to the status of the dollar as the world’s leading international currency.

[partypup]

[quote=barnaby33]patientrenter, you should know by now not to stop partypup when he gets wound up. Is entertaining.[/quote]

LOL. I will admit to getting wound up on occasions, Josh, but for the record I’m a woman. But I am glad that I at least provide cheap entertainment for you 😉

[patientrenter]

partypup, you are a lawyer, so although you are not an economist, you do know how to take apart transactions.

The basic transaction in international trade that we are discussing here (I think) is the purchase by US consumers of goods made by people in other countries. In return, those people currently accept dollars. Yes, I know they may decide they want more dollars, but they still accept the dollars.

Since these people in other countries don’t consume as much as us, they don’t need to spend all the dollars at once. So they send the dollars back to the US, and buy promises from us to give them more dollars in the future (e.g. through US Treasury bonds).

With China and OPEC and Russia etc holding a few trillion of our US Treasury bonds, and bonds from GSEs like FNMA, they have NO CHOICE about accepting future dollars. They have already made the deal to accept future dollars. All the bonds issued by the US govt and the GSEs are denominated in dollars, so China etc have no options – they must accept dollar interest and principal repayments on the bonds they’ve already purchased from us. That covers everything that’s happened in the past.

Turning to the future, will these foreign exporters continue to accept promises from us of future dollars in return for sending us real goods? If they veer away from that, it will show up first as higher yields on US bonds (but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that) or a lower foreign exchange value for the US dollar. That will continue for a while (a few years at least.) Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today. Then we will have to issue Yuan-denominated US govt bonds. But that’s years away, if ever.

[4plexowner]

“but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that”

by this comment I assume you mean that he will buy US Treasuries all along the curve in order to suppress both short and long-term interest rates – how else can he stop rates from rising?

in order to buy US Treasuries the Fed is already engaging in “quantitative easing” (which is just the latest mind-fuck for printing fiat currency as fast as possible) and you are proposing that they will increase these efforts

“Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today.”

so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?

[Allan from Fallbrook]

A buddy of mine was telling me you can pick up an RPG for $125 in Peshawar. AKs are going for $75 and you can find a “gently used” RPD light machine gun for about $200.

[peterb]

If the market takes another dive, treasuries will probably be in demand again. And so it goes. This will also support the US$ quite well.
There’s not many choices out there because of the huge volume of funds that need to find a home when the storm comes thundering back into town. Not to mention the amount currently held by other nations.

It will be interesting to see if this event becomes supportive for gold. I think it will this time around becuase gold likes uncertainty and it’s looking like the world is considering gold more like money at this time rather than a commodity.

[peterb]

If the market takes another dive, treasuries will probably be in demand again. And so it goes. This will also support the US$ quite well.
There’s not many choices out there because of the huge volume of funds that need to find a home when the storm comes thundering back into town. Not to mention the amount currently held by other nations.

It will be interesting to see if this event becomes supportive for gold. I think it will this time around becuase gold likes uncertainty and it’s looking like the world is considering gold more like money at this time rather than a commodity.

[peterb]

If the market takes another dive, treasuries will probably be in demand again. And so it goes. This will also support the US$ quite well.
There’s not many choices out there because of the huge volume of funds that need to find a home when the storm comes thundering back into town. Not to mention the amount currently held by other nations.

It will be interesting to see if this event becomes supportive for gold. I think it will this time around becuase gold likes uncertainty and it’s looking like the world is considering gold more like money at this time rather than a commodity.

[peterb]

If the market takes another dive, treasuries will probably be in demand again. And so it goes. This will also support the US$ quite well.
There’s not many choices out there because of the huge volume of funds that need to find a home when the storm comes thundering back into town. Not to mention the amount currently held by other nations.

It will be interesting to see if this event becomes supportive for gold. I think it will this time around becuase gold likes uncertainty and it’s looking like the world is considering gold more like money at this time rather than a commodity.

[peterb]

If the market takes another dive, treasuries will probably be in demand again. And so it goes. This will also support the US$ quite well.
There’s not many choices out there because of the huge volume of funds that need to find a home when the storm comes thundering back into town. Not to mention the amount currently held by other nations.

It will be interesting to see if this event becomes supportive for gold. I think it will this time around becuase gold likes uncertainty and it’s looking like the world is considering gold more like money at this time rather than a commodity.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

A buddy of mine was telling me you can pick up an RPG for $125 in Peshawar. AKs are going for $75 and you can find a “gently used” RPD light machine gun for about $200.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

A buddy of mine was telling me you can pick up an RPG for $125 in Peshawar. AKs are going for $75 and you can find a “gently used” RPD light machine gun for about $200.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

A buddy of mine was telling me you can pick up an RPG for $125 in Peshawar. AKs are going for $75 and you can find a “gently used” RPD light machine gun for about $200.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

A buddy of mine was telling me you can pick up an RPG for $125 in Peshawar. AKs are going for $75 and you can find a “gently used” RPD light machine gun for about $200.

[patientrenter]

[quote=4plexowner]…so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?[/quote]

Quite a bit, 4plex. Before the Fed stepped in earlier this year with direct purchases of Treasuries, the 10T rate was less than 3%. Back in the early 1980’s, that rate was in the mid-teens. That’s a lot of room on just that element alone. Then there’s the exchange rate. A drop of 30% in the dollar would be seen as huge, and would likely halt movement until it was absorbed. Maybe a year, or more. Further movements could then happen, but these things take time. A complete collapse has occurred for only a few countries in the last several decades, and those countries were generally quite a bit less advantaged than the US.

So it is certainly true that we could see a lot of pressures driving down the exchange value of the dollar, but I see no practical chance of its foreign exchange value actually dropping to near-zero, as for Weimar Germany’s Mark.

Just consider if the dollar lost 50% of it’s foreign exchange value tomorrow. We’d have to buy a lot less BMWs and other European goods, and a lot fewer appliances from China. We’d still want nice things, so someone here would make a profit from making substitutes for us. And there are some things we make that other people around the world would love to buy from us at half the price in their own currency. It’s hard for me to see how a 50% devaluation wouldn’t eliminate our trade deficit. So in reality a less than 50% devaluation would get us there. It’s not all about catastrophe, black and white, do or die, all or nothing.

And yes, I have zero faith that US debts will be paid off in full value. Inflation will be engineered to reduce the true value of the debt. But the managers of the Chinese economy knew that 10 years ago. They accepted a likely future writedown of a trillion or two in accumulated savings as a price they would have to pay to go from being an undeveloped country to a global powerhouse full of real industry, educated people, and business knowledge for the future. The increase in the real value of their economy, powered by export growth, far exceeds the losses they will incur from US bad debt.

[Veritas]

Allan,

You must be loading your own between the scarcity and the high cost of ammo.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=Veritas]Allan,

You must be loading your own between the scarcity and the high cost of ammo.[/quote]

Yup, I dusted off the old Dillon progressive and got back into “rolling my own”.

It’s interesting, too, because the gubment has been destroying old brass, so reloading certain types of ammo, specifically 5.56mm, has gotten more difficult.

Powder, bullets and primers are still readily available, although certain distributors are limiting quantities and certain calibers (esp. the newer stuff) are a little problematic.

The way people are buying guns and ammo you’d think the end was right around the corner.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=Veritas]Allan,

You must be loading your own between the scarcity and the high cost of ammo.[/quote]

Yup, I dusted off the old Dillon progressive and got back into “rolling my own”.

It’s interesting, too, because the gubment has been destroying old brass, so reloading certain types of ammo, specifically 5.56mm, has gotten more difficult.

Powder, bullets and primers are still readily available, although certain distributors are limiting quantities and certain calibers (esp. the newer stuff) are a little problematic.

The way people are buying guns and ammo you’d think the end was right around the corner.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=Veritas]Allan,

You must be loading your own between the scarcity and the high cost of ammo.[/quote]

Yup, I dusted off the old Dillon progressive and got back into “rolling my own”.

It’s interesting, too, because the gubment has been destroying old brass, so reloading certain types of ammo, specifically 5.56mm, has gotten more difficult.

Powder, bullets and primers are still readily available, although certain distributors are limiting quantities and certain calibers (esp. the newer stuff) are a little problematic.

The way people are buying guns and ammo you’d think the end was right around the corner.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=Veritas]Allan,

You must be loading your own between the scarcity and the high cost of ammo.[/quote]

Yup, I dusted off the old Dillon progressive and got back into “rolling my own”.

It’s interesting, too, because the gubment has been destroying old brass, so reloading certain types of ammo, specifically 5.56mm, has gotten more difficult.

Powder, bullets and primers are still readily available, although certain distributors are limiting quantities and certain calibers (esp. the newer stuff) are a little problematic.

The way people are buying guns and ammo you’d think the end was right around the corner.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=Veritas]Allan,

You must be loading your own between the scarcity and the high cost of ammo.[/quote]

Yup, I dusted off the old Dillon progressive and got back into “rolling my own”.

It’s interesting, too, because the gubment has been destroying old brass, so reloading certain types of ammo, specifically 5.56mm, has gotten more difficult.

Powder, bullets and primers are still readily available, although certain distributors are limiting quantities and certain calibers (esp. the newer stuff) are a little problematic.

The way people are buying guns and ammo you’d think the end was right around the corner.

[Veritas]

Allan,

You must be loading your own between the scarcity and the high cost of ammo.

[Veritas]

Allan,

You must be loading your own between the scarcity and the high cost of ammo.

[Veritas]

Allan,

You must be loading your own between the scarcity and the high cost of ammo.

[Veritas]

Allan,

You must be loading your own between the scarcity and the high cost of ammo.

[patientrenter]

[quote=4plexowner]…so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?[/quote]

Quite a bit, 4plex. Before the Fed stepped in earlier this year with direct purchases of Treasuries, the 10T rate was less than 3%. Back in the early 1980’s, that rate was in the mid-teens. That’s a lot of room on just that element alone. Then there’s the exchange rate. A drop of 30% in the dollar would be seen as huge, and would likely halt movement until it was absorbed. Maybe a year, or more. Further movements could then happen, but these things take time. A complete collapse has occurred for only a few countries in the last several decades, and those countries were generally quite a bit less advantaged than the US.

So it is certainly true that we could see a lot of pressures driving down the exchange value of the dollar, but I see no practical chance of its foreign exchange value actually dropping to near-zero, as for Weimar Germany’s Mark.

Just consider if the dollar lost 50% of it’s foreign exchange value tomorrow. We’d have to buy a lot less BMWs and other European goods, and a lot fewer appliances from China. We’d still want nice things, so someone here would make a profit from making substitutes for us. And there are some things we make that other people around the world would love to buy from us at half the price in their own currency. It’s hard for me to see how a 50% devaluation wouldn’t eliminate our trade deficit. So in reality a less than 50% devaluation would get us there. It’s not all about catastrophe, black and white, do or die, all or nothing.

And yes, I have zero faith that US debts will be paid off in full value. Inflation will be engineered to reduce the true value of the debt. But the managers of the Chinese economy knew that 10 years ago. They accepted a likely future writedown of a trillion or two in accumulated savings as a price they would have to pay to go from being an undeveloped country to a global powerhouse full of real industry, educated people, and business knowledge for the future. The increase in the real value of their economy, powered by export growth, far exceeds the losses they will incur from US bad debt.

[patientrenter]

[quote=4plexowner]…so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?[/quote]

Quite a bit, 4plex. Before the Fed stepped in earlier this year with direct purchases of Treasuries, the 10T rate was less than 3%. Back in the early 1980’s, that rate was in the mid-teens. That’s a lot of room on just that element alone. Then there’s the exchange rate. A drop of 30% in the dollar would be seen as huge, and would likely halt movement until it was absorbed. Maybe a year, or more. Further movements could then happen, but these things take time. A complete collapse has occurred for only a few countries in the last several decades, and those countries were generally quite a bit less advantaged than the US.

So it is certainly true that we could see a lot of pressures driving down the exchange value of the dollar, but I see no practical chance of its foreign exchange value actually dropping to near-zero, as for Weimar Germany’s Mark.

Just consider if the dollar lost 50% of it’s foreign exchange value tomorrow. We’d have to buy a lot less BMWs and other European goods, and a lot fewer appliances from China. We’d still want nice things, so someone here would make a profit from making substitutes for us. And there are some things we make that other people around the world would love to buy from us at half the price in their own currency. It’s hard for me to see how a 50% devaluation wouldn’t eliminate our trade deficit. So in reality a less than 50% devaluation would get us there. It’s not all about catastrophe, black and white, do or die, all or nothing.

And yes, I have zero faith that US debts will be paid off in full value. Inflation will be engineered to reduce the true value of the debt. But the managers of the Chinese economy knew that 10 years ago. They accepted a likely future writedown of a trillion or two in accumulated savings as a price they would have to pay to go from being an undeveloped country to a global powerhouse full of real industry, educated people, and business knowledge for the future. The increase in the real value of their economy, powered by export growth, far exceeds the losses they will incur from US bad debt.

[patientrenter]

[quote=4plexowner]…so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?[/quote]

Quite a bit, 4plex. Before the Fed stepped in earlier this year with direct purchases of Treasuries, the 10T rate was less than 3%. Back in the early 1980’s, that rate was in the mid-teens. That’s a lot of room on just that element alone. Then there’s the exchange rate. A drop of 30% in the dollar would be seen as huge, and would likely halt movement until it was absorbed. Maybe a year, or more. Further movements could then happen, but these things take time. A complete collapse has occurred for only a few countries in the last several decades, and those countries were generally quite a bit less advantaged than the US.

So it is certainly true that we could see a lot of pressures driving down the exchange value of the dollar, but I see no practical chance of its foreign exchange value actually dropping to near-zero, as for Weimar Germany’s Mark.

Just consider if the dollar lost 50% of it’s foreign exchange value tomorrow. We’d have to buy a lot less BMWs and other European goods, and a lot fewer appliances from China. We’d still want nice things, so someone here would make a profit from making substitutes for us. And there are some things we make that other people around the world would love to buy from us at half the price in their own currency. It’s hard for me to see how a 50% devaluation wouldn’t eliminate our trade deficit. So in reality a less than 50% devaluation would get us there. It’s not all about catastrophe, black and white, do or die, all or nothing.

And yes, I have zero faith that US debts will be paid off in full value. Inflation will be engineered to reduce the true value of the debt. But the managers of the Chinese economy knew that 10 years ago. They accepted a likely future writedown of a trillion or two in accumulated savings as a price they would have to pay to go from being an undeveloped country to a global powerhouse full of real industry, educated people, and business knowledge for the future. The increase in the real value of their economy, powered by export growth, far exceeds the losses they will incur from US bad debt.

[patientrenter]

[quote=4plexowner]…so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?[/quote]

Quite a bit, 4plex. Before the Fed stepped in earlier this year with direct purchases of Treasuries, the 10T rate was less than 3%. Back in the early 1980’s, that rate was in the mid-teens. That’s a lot of room on just that element alone. Then there’s the exchange rate. A drop of 30% in the dollar would be seen as huge, and would likely halt movement until it was absorbed. Maybe a year, or more. Further movements could then happen, but these things take time. A complete collapse has occurred for only a few countries in the last several decades, and those countries were generally quite a bit less advantaged than the US.

So it is certainly true that we could see a lot of pressures driving down the exchange value of the dollar, but I see no practical chance of its foreign exchange value actually dropping to near-zero, as for Weimar Germany’s Mark.

Just consider if the dollar lost 50% of it’s foreign exchange value tomorrow. We’d have to buy a lot less BMWs and other European goods, and a lot fewer appliances from China. We’d still want nice things, so someone here would make a profit from making substitutes for us. And there are some things we make that other people around the world would love to buy from us at half the price in their own currency. It’s hard for me to see how a 50% devaluation wouldn’t eliminate our trade deficit. So in reality a less than 50% devaluation would get us there. It’s not all about catastrophe, black and white, do or die, all or nothing.

And yes, I have zero faith that US debts will be paid off in full value. Inflation will be engineered to reduce the true value of the debt. But the managers of the Chinese economy knew that 10 years ago. They accepted a likely future writedown of a trillion or two in accumulated savings as a price they would have to pay to go from being an undeveloped country to a global powerhouse full of real industry, educated people, and business knowledge for the future. The increase in the real value of their economy, powered by export growth, far exceeds the losses they will incur from US bad debt.

[partypup]

[quote=4plexowner]”but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that”

by this comment I assume you mean that he will buy US Treasuries all along the curve in order to suppress both short and long-term interest rates – how else can he stop rates from rising?

in order to buy US Treasuries the Fed is already engaging in “quantitative easing” (which is just the latest mind-fuck for printing fiat currency as fast as possible) and you are proposing that they will increase these efforts

“Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today.”

so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?[/quote]

Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.

And this doesn’t help our prospects:

“Obama: ‘We’re out of money'”

I wish he would have realized that about $11 trillion ago.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/05/obama_were_out_of_money.html

[4plexowner]

“extremis” coming closer?

China warns Federal Reserve over ‘printing money’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5379285/China-warns-Federal-Reserve-over-printing-money.html

~

I listed our liabilities on the low side when I said $60-70 trillion – but hey, what’s a few trillion these days?

from the article above:

“We at the Dallas Fed believe the total is over $99 trillion,” he said in February.

[4plexowner]

“extremis” coming closer?

China warns Federal Reserve over ‘printing money’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5379285/China-warns-Federal-Reserve-over-printing-money.html

~

I listed our liabilities on the low side when I said $60-70 trillion – but hey, what’s a few trillion these days?

from the article above:

“We at the Dallas Fed believe the total is over $99 trillion,” he said in February.

[4plexowner]

“extremis” coming closer?

China warns Federal Reserve over ‘printing money’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5379285/China-warns-Federal-Reserve-over-printing-money.html

~

I listed our liabilities on the low side when I said $60-70 trillion – but hey, what’s a few trillion these days?

from the article above:

“We at the Dallas Fed believe the total is over $99 trillion,” he said in February.

[4plexowner]

“extremis” coming closer?

China warns Federal Reserve over ‘printing money’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5379285/China-warns-Federal-Reserve-over-printing-money.html

~

I listed our liabilities on the low side when I said $60-70 trillion – but hey, what’s a few trillion these days?

from the article above:

“We at the Dallas Fed believe the total is over $99 trillion,” he said in February.

[4plexowner]

“extremis” coming closer?

China warns Federal Reserve over ‘printing money’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5379285/China-warns-Federal-Reserve-over-printing-money.html

~

I listed our liabilities on the low side when I said $60-70 trillion – but hey, what’s a few trillion these days?

from the article above:

“We at the Dallas Fed believe the total is over $99 trillion,” he said in February.

[patientrenter]

“Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.”

Groan.. I give up.

partypup, I assume you make these posts to entertain yourself. But if you are trying to figure out what’s most likely to happen, then your comment about the OPEC countries not taking any number of dollars in return for giving us their oil doesn’t fit with your conclusion that oil will be at $5. If people accept $5 in return for a gallon of gasoline, then that means oil exporters will accept dollars too. They may just want more of them. There’s a difference between a 30% or even 50% devaluation of a currency and its complete collapse. One is Bladerunner, the other is Mad Max.

[Arraya]

Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=Arraya]Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

Arraya: I must confess I’m torn. You’re one of my favorite posters on this board and one of the more astute in my humble opinion.

However, you’ve just referenced a movie that not only features Ah-nuld, but Richard Dawson, Jesse Ventura and Jim Brown. Dude! What are we to think?

While I’m thinking about it, are you a Neil Gaiman fan? If so, check out author China Mieville (it’s actually a British guy). I think you’ll like his style.

[Arraya]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

Arraya: I must confess I’m torn. You’re one of my favorite posters on this board and one of the more astute in my humble opinion.

However, you’ve just referenced a movie that not only features Ah-nuld, but Richard Dawson, Jesse Ventura and Jim Brown. Dude! What are we to think?

While I’m thinking about it, are you a Neil Gaiman fan? If so, check out author China Mieville (it’s actually a British guy). I think you’ll like his style.
[/quote]

Ha! That is too funny. Honestly, I was hesitant to post for that very reason. It’s also way I said to watch the first 15 minutes because the rest is just a more cheesy and violent version of American Gladiator.

[nostradamus]

LOL well if you liked Jesse Ventura in Running Man then you’ll love Rowdy Roddy Piper in They Live. Talk about Hollywood accurately depicting our time, check out what he sees when he puts on the glasses! Awesome!

[Arraya]

[quote=nostradamus]LOL well if you liked Jesse Ventura in Running Man then you’ll love Rowdy Roddy Piper in They Live. Talk about Hollywood accurately depicting our time, check out what he sees when he puts on the glasses! Awesome![/quote]

I just watched this a few weeks ago on You Tube. Good Stuff.

Part science fiction thriller and part black comedy, the film echoed contemporary fears of a declining economy, within a culture of greed and conspicuous consumption common among Americans in the 1980s. In They Live, the ruling class within the monied elite are in fact aliens managing human social affairs through the use of subliminal media advertising and the control of economic opportunity.

[Arraya]

[quote=nostradamus]LOL well if you liked Jesse Ventura in Running Man then you’ll love Rowdy Roddy Piper in They Live. Talk about Hollywood accurately depicting our time, check out what he sees when he puts on the glasses! Awesome![/quote]

I just watched this a few weeks ago on You Tube. Good Stuff.

Part science fiction thriller and part black comedy, the film echoed contemporary fears of a declining economy, within a culture of greed and conspicuous consumption common among Americans in the 1980s. In They Live, the ruling class within the monied elite are in fact aliens managing human social affairs through the use of subliminal media advertising and the control of economic opportunity.

[Arraya]

[quote=nostradamus]LOL well if you liked Jesse Ventura in Running Man then you’ll love Rowdy Roddy Piper in They Live. Talk about Hollywood accurately depicting our time, check out what he sees when he puts on the glasses! Awesome![/quote]

I just watched this a few weeks ago on You Tube. Good Stuff.

Part science fiction thriller and part black comedy, the film echoed contemporary fears of a declining economy, within a culture of greed and conspicuous consumption common among Americans in the 1980s. In They Live, the ruling class within the monied elite are in fact aliens managing human social affairs through the use of subliminal media advertising and the control of economic opportunity.

[Arraya]

[quote=nostradamus]LOL well if you liked Jesse Ventura in Running Man then you’ll love Rowdy Roddy Piper in They Live. Talk about Hollywood accurately depicting our time, check out what he sees when he puts on the glasses! Awesome![/quote]

I just watched this a few weeks ago on You Tube. Good Stuff.

Part science fiction thriller and part black comedy, the film echoed contemporary fears of a declining economy, within a culture of greed and conspicuous consumption common among Americans in the 1980s. In They Live, the ruling class within the monied elite are in fact aliens managing human social affairs through the use of subliminal media advertising and the control of economic opportunity.

[Arraya]

[quote=nostradamus]LOL well if you liked Jesse Ventura in Running Man then you’ll love Rowdy Roddy Piper in They Live. Talk about Hollywood accurately depicting our time, check out what he sees when he puts on the glasses! Awesome![/quote]

I just watched this a few weeks ago on You Tube. Good Stuff.

Part science fiction thriller and part black comedy, the film echoed contemporary fears of a declining economy, within a culture of greed and conspicuous consumption common among Americans in the 1980s. In They Live, the ruling class within the monied elite are in fact aliens managing human social affairs through the use of subliminal media advertising and the control of economic opportunity.

[nostradamus]

LOL well if you liked Jesse Ventura in Running Man then you’ll love Rowdy Roddy Piper in They Live. Talk about Hollywood accurately depicting our time, check out what he sees when he puts on the glasses! Awesome!

[nostradamus]

LOL well if you liked Jesse Ventura in Running Man then you’ll love Rowdy Roddy Piper in They Live. Talk about Hollywood accurately depicting our time, check out what he sees when he puts on the glasses! Awesome!

[nostradamus]

LOL well if you liked Jesse Ventura in Running Man then you’ll love Rowdy Roddy Piper in They Live. Talk about Hollywood accurately depicting our time, check out what he sees when he puts on the glasses! Awesome!

[nostradamus]

LOL well if you liked Jesse Ventura in Running Man then you’ll love Rowdy Roddy Piper in They Live. Talk about Hollywood accurately depicting our time, check out what he sees when he puts on the glasses! Awesome!

[Arraya]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

Arraya: I must confess I’m torn. You’re one of my favorite posters on this board and one of the more astute in my humble opinion.

However, you’ve just referenced a movie that not only features Ah-nuld, but Richard Dawson, Jesse Ventura and Jim Brown. Dude! What are we to think?

While I’m thinking about it, are you a Neil Gaiman fan? If so, check out author China Mieville (it’s actually a British guy). I think you’ll like his style.
[/quote]

Ha! That is too funny. Honestly, I was hesitant to post for that very reason. It’s also way I said to watch the first 15 minutes because the rest is just a more cheesy and violent version of American Gladiator.

[Arraya]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

Arraya: I must confess I’m torn. You’re one of my favorite posters on this board and one of the more astute in my humble opinion.

However, you’ve just referenced a movie that not only features Ah-nuld, but Richard Dawson, Jesse Ventura and Jim Brown. Dude! What are we to think?

While I’m thinking about it, are you a Neil Gaiman fan? If so, check out author China Mieville (it’s actually a British guy). I think you’ll like his style.
[/quote]

Ha! That is too funny. Honestly, I was hesitant to post for that very reason. It’s also way I said to watch the first 15 minutes because the rest is just a more cheesy and violent version of American Gladiator.

[Arraya]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

Arraya: I must confess I’m torn. You’re one of my favorite posters on this board and one of the more astute in my humble opinion.

However, you’ve just referenced a movie that not only features Ah-nuld, but Richard Dawson, Jesse Ventura and Jim Brown. Dude! What are we to think?

While I’m thinking about it, are you a Neil Gaiman fan? If so, check out author China Mieville (it’s actually a British guy). I think you’ll like his style.
[/quote]

Ha! That is too funny. Honestly, I was hesitant to post for that very reason. It’s also way I said to watch the first 15 minutes because the rest is just a more cheesy and violent version of American Gladiator.

[Arraya]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

Arraya: I must confess I’m torn. You’re one of my favorite posters on this board and one of the more astute in my humble opinion.

However, you’ve just referenced a movie that not only features Ah-nuld, but Richard Dawson, Jesse Ventura and Jim Brown. Dude! What are we to think?

While I’m thinking about it, are you a Neil Gaiman fan? If so, check out author China Mieville (it’s actually a British guy). I think you’ll like his style.
[/quote]

Ha! That is too funny. Honestly, I was hesitant to post for that very reason. It’s also way I said to watch the first 15 minutes because the rest is just a more cheesy and violent version of American Gladiator.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=Arraya]Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

Arraya: I must confess I’m torn. You’re one of my favorite posters on this board and one of the more astute in my humble opinion.

However, you’ve just referenced a movie that not only features Ah-nuld, but Richard Dawson, Jesse Ventura and Jim Brown. Dude! What are we to think?

While I’m thinking about it, are you a Neil Gaiman fan? If so, check out author China Mieville (it’s actually a British guy). I think you’ll like his style.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=Arraya]Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

Arraya: I must confess I’m torn. You’re one of my favorite posters on this board and one of the more astute in my humble opinion.

However, you’ve just referenced a movie that not only features Ah-nuld, but Richard Dawson, Jesse Ventura and Jim Brown. Dude! What are we to think?

While I’m thinking about it, are you a Neil Gaiman fan? If so, check out author China Mieville (it’s actually a British guy). I think you’ll like his style.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=Arraya]Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

Arraya: I must confess I’m torn. You’re one of my favorite posters on this board and one of the more astute in my humble opinion.

However, you’ve just referenced a movie that not only features Ah-nuld, but Richard Dawson, Jesse Ventura and Jim Brown. Dude! What are we to think?

While I’m thinking about it, are you a Neil Gaiman fan? If so, check out author China Mieville (it’s actually a British guy). I think you’ll like his style.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=Arraya]Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

Arraya: I must confess I’m torn. You’re one of my favorite posters on this board and one of the more astute in my humble opinion.

However, you’ve just referenced a movie that not only features Ah-nuld, but Richard Dawson, Jesse Ventura and Jim Brown. Dude! What are we to think?

While I’m thinking about it, are you a Neil Gaiman fan? If so, check out author China Mieville (it’s actually a British guy). I think you’ll like his style.

[partypup]

[quote=Arraya]As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

I see we have some real sci fi fans here! I’ll tip my hat to a couple of underrated 70s flicks: “Soylent Green” and “Planet of the Apes” (only the first one). Sure, they looked kind of schlocky and the acting was painful – but they presented some damn provocative and creepy themes.

And I know they don’t make movies they way they used to, but I saw the new “Star Trek” last weekend and really enjoyed it. It was fresh, the casting was excellent, and the effects were very nice. J.J. Abrams sure knows how to entertain.

[partypup]

[quote=Arraya]As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

I see we have some real sci fi fans here! I’ll tip my hat to a couple of underrated 70s flicks: “Soylent Green” and “Planet of the Apes” (only the first one). Sure, they looked kind of schlocky and the acting was painful – but they presented some damn provocative and creepy themes.

And I know they don’t make movies they way they used to, but I saw the new “Star Trek” last weekend and really enjoyed it. It was fresh, the casting was excellent, and the effects were very nice. J.J. Abrams sure knows how to entertain.

[partypup]

[quote=Arraya]As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

I see we have some real sci fi fans here! I’ll tip my hat to a couple of underrated 70s flicks: “Soylent Green” and “Planet of the Apes” (only the first one). Sure, they looked kind of schlocky and the acting was painful – but they presented some damn provocative and creepy themes.

And I know they don’t make movies they way they used to, but I saw the new “Star Trek” last weekend and really enjoyed it. It was fresh, the casting was excellent, and the effects were very nice. J.J. Abrams sure knows how to entertain.

[partypup]

[quote=Arraya]As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

I see we have some real sci fi fans here! I’ll tip my hat to a couple of underrated 70s flicks: “Soylent Green” and “Planet of the Apes” (only the first one). Sure, they looked kind of schlocky and the acting was painful – but they presented some damn provocative and creepy themes.

And I know they don’t make movies they way they used to, but I saw the new “Star Trek” last weekend and really enjoyed it. It was fresh, the casting was excellent, and the effects were very nice. J.J. Abrams sure knows how to entertain.

[partypup]

[quote=Arraya]As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[/quote]

I see we have some real sci fi fans here! I’ll tip my hat to a couple of underrated 70s flicks: “Soylent Green” and “Planet of the Apes” (only the first one). Sure, they looked kind of schlocky and the acting was painful – but they presented some damn provocative and creepy themes.

And I know they don’t make movies they way they used to, but I saw the new “Star Trek” last weekend and really enjoyed it. It was fresh, the casting was excellent, and the effects were very nice. J.J. Abrams sure knows how to entertain.

[Arraya]

Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[Arraya]

Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[Arraya]

Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[Arraya]

Of course we need to expand net energy to increase productions of goods and services and thus pay off our debts. Unfortunately it’s only going down, slowly now and quickly in a few years, probably 2-3. Factor in population growth and the per capita energy use has to go down and however that manifests. Most likely it will concentrate. Economics does not sufficiently handle this problem. Bernake can’t print energy and that by definition is the ability to do work.

As for movies depicting the future. Watch the first 15 minutes of “The Running Man”. Has the timing dead on, IMO. The creators must be peak oil savvy.

The year is 2017. The world economy has collapsed. The United States has sealed off it’s borders and has become a military controlled police state which controls TV, movies, art, books, communication and censorship. In the police state America has become, criminals have a choice…

Arnie gets in trouble for not obeying orders to shoot food rioters.

Blade Runner is in my top five as well.

[partypup]

[quote=partypup]”Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.”

[quote=patientrenter]partypup, I assume you make these posts to entertain yourself. But if you are trying to figure out what’s most likely to happen, then your comment about the OPEC countries not taking any number of dollars in return for giving us their oil doesn’t fit with your conclusion that oil will be at $5. If people accept $5 in return for a gallon of gasoline, then that means oil exporters will accept dollars too. They may just want more of them.[/quote]

Sorry, I should have been more clear in my post. OPEC controls most (78%) but not all of the world’s oil reserves. So it’s entirely possible for (a) OPEC not to accept dollars and (b) for the U.S. to continue to purchase oil with dollars elsewhere (the U.S. has a share of the non-OPEC reserves, and I think Canada and Mexico would be hard-pressed not to sell to us). Obviously, the price would reflect the drastically reduced supply of available oil. So in fact, $5/gallon would probably be on the low side. But the bottom line is that it is extremely likely at some point in the not-so-distant future that global acceptance of the dollar will fall dramatically, and that will have unimaginable repercussions here for all of us.

[quote=patientrenter]There’s a difference between a 30% or even 50% devaluation of a currency and its complete collapse. One is Bladerunner, the other is Mad Max.[/quote]

I don’t see how “Bladerunner” represents a world with a dollar reduced by one-third, but I also don’t see our future neatly following one of two commercial films. But if you are trying to figure out which movie we will most likely be watching 5 years from now, I think it will end up borrowing bits and pieces of “Bladerunner” and “Mad Max”, with a few frames from “Minority Report” and “Children of Men” tossed in for good measure.

[partypup]

[quote=partypup]”Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.”

[quote=patientrenter]partypup, I assume you make these posts to entertain yourself. But if you are trying to figure out what’s most likely to happen, then your comment about the OPEC countries not taking any number of dollars in return for giving us their oil doesn’t fit with your conclusion that oil will be at $5. If people accept $5 in return for a gallon of gasoline, then that means oil exporters will accept dollars too. They may just want more of them.[/quote]

Sorry, I should have been more clear in my post. OPEC controls most (78%) but not all of the world’s oil reserves. So it’s entirely possible for (a) OPEC not to accept dollars and (b) for the U.S. to continue to purchase oil with dollars elsewhere (the U.S. has a share of the non-OPEC reserves, and I think Canada and Mexico would be hard-pressed not to sell to us). Obviously, the price would reflect the drastically reduced supply of available oil. So in fact, $5/gallon would probably be on the low side. But the bottom line is that it is extremely likely at some point in the not-so-distant future that global acceptance of the dollar will fall dramatically, and that will have unimaginable repercussions here for all of us.

[quote=patientrenter]There’s a difference between a 30% or even 50% devaluation of a currency and its complete collapse. One is Bladerunner, the other is Mad Max.[/quote]

I don’t see how “Bladerunner” represents a world with a dollar reduced by one-third, but I also don’t see our future neatly following one of two commercial films. But if you are trying to figure out which movie we will most likely be watching 5 years from now, I think it will end up borrowing bits and pieces of “Bladerunner” and “Mad Max”, with a few frames from “Minority Report” and “Children of Men” tossed in for good measure.

[partypup]

[quote=partypup]”Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.”

[quote=patientrenter]partypup, I assume you make these posts to entertain yourself. But if you are trying to figure out what’s most likely to happen, then your comment about the OPEC countries not taking any number of dollars in return for giving us their oil doesn’t fit with your conclusion that oil will be at $5. If people accept $5 in return for a gallon of gasoline, then that means oil exporters will accept dollars too. They may just want more of them.[/quote]

Sorry, I should have been more clear in my post. OPEC controls most (78%) but not all of the world’s oil reserves. So it’s entirely possible for (a) OPEC not to accept dollars and (b) for the U.S. to continue to purchase oil with dollars elsewhere (the U.S. has a share of the non-OPEC reserves, and I think Canada and Mexico would be hard-pressed not to sell to us). Obviously, the price would reflect the drastically reduced supply of available oil. So in fact, $5/gallon would probably be on the low side. But the bottom line is that it is extremely likely at some point in the not-so-distant future that global acceptance of the dollar will fall dramatically, and that will have unimaginable repercussions here for all of us.

[quote=patientrenter]There’s a difference between a 30% or even 50% devaluation of a currency and its complete collapse. One is Bladerunner, the other is Mad Max.[/quote]

I don’t see how “Bladerunner” represents a world with a dollar reduced by one-third, but I also don’t see our future neatly following one of two commercial films. But if you are trying to figure out which movie we will most likely be watching 5 years from now, I think it will end up borrowing bits and pieces of “Bladerunner” and “Mad Max”, with a few frames from “Minority Report” and “Children of Men” tossed in for good measure.

[partypup]

[quote=partypup]”Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.”

[quote=patientrenter]partypup, I assume you make these posts to entertain yourself. But if you are trying to figure out what’s most likely to happen, then your comment about the OPEC countries not taking any number of dollars in return for giving us their oil doesn’t fit with your conclusion that oil will be at $5. If people accept $5 in return for a gallon of gasoline, then that means oil exporters will accept dollars too. They may just want more of them.[/quote]

Sorry, I should have been more clear in my post. OPEC controls most (78%) but not all of the world’s oil reserves. So it’s entirely possible for (a) OPEC not to accept dollars and (b) for the U.S. to continue to purchase oil with dollars elsewhere (the U.S. has a share of the non-OPEC reserves, and I think Canada and Mexico would be hard-pressed not to sell to us). Obviously, the price would reflect the drastically reduced supply of available oil. So in fact, $5/gallon would probably be on the low side. But the bottom line is that it is extremely likely at some point in the not-so-distant future that global acceptance of the dollar will fall dramatically, and that will have unimaginable repercussions here for all of us.

[quote=patientrenter]There’s a difference between a 30% or even 50% devaluation of a currency and its complete collapse. One is Bladerunner, the other is Mad Max.[/quote]

I don’t see how “Bladerunner” represents a world with a dollar reduced by one-third, but I also don’t see our future neatly following one of two commercial films. But if you are trying to figure out which movie we will most likely be watching 5 years from now, I think it will end up borrowing bits and pieces of “Bladerunner” and “Mad Max”, with a few frames from “Minority Report” and “Children of Men” tossed in for good measure.

[partypup]

[quote=partypup]”Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.”

[quote=patientrenter]partypup, I assume you make these posts to entertain yourself. But if you are trying to figure out what’s most likely to happen, then your comment about the OPEC countries not taking any number of dollars in return for giving us their oil doesn’t fit with your conclusion that oil will be at $5. If people accept $5 in return for a gallon of gasoline, then that means oil exporters will accept dollars too. They may just want more of them.[/quote]

Sorry, I should have been more clear in my post. OPEC controls most (78%) but not all of the world’s oil reserves. So it’s entirely possible for (a) OPEC not to accept dollars and (b) for the U.S. to continue to purchase oil with dollars elsewhere (the U.S. has a share of the non-OPEC reserves, and I think Canada and Mexico would be hard-pressed not to sell to us). Obviously, the price would reflect the drastically reduced supply of available oil. So in fact, $5/gallon would probably be on the low side. But the bottom line is that it is extremely likely at some point in the not-so-distant future that global acceptance of the dollar will fall dramatically, and that will have unimaginable repercussions here for all of us.

[quote=patientrenter]There’s a difference between a 30% or even 50% devaluation of a currency and its complete collapse. One is Bladerunner, the other is Mad Max.[/quote]

I don’t see how “Bladerunner” represents a world with a dollar reduced by one-third, but I also don’t see our future neatly following one of two commercial films. But if you are trying to figure out which movie we will most likely be watching 5 years from now, I think it will end up borrowing bits and pieces of “Bladerunner” and “Mad Max”, with a few frames from “Minority Report” and “Children of Men” tossed in for good measure.

[patientrenter]

“Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.”

Groan.. I give up.

partypup, I assume you make these posts to entertain yourself. But if you are trying to figure out what’s most likely to happen, then your comment about the OPEC countries not taking any number of dollars in return for giving us their oil doesn’t fit with your conclusion that oil will be at $5. If people accept $5 in return for a gallon of gasoline, then that means oil exporters will accept dollars too. They may just want more of them. There’s a difference between a 30% or even 50% devaluation of a currency and its complete collapse. One is Bladerunner, the other is Mad Max.

[patientrenter]

“Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.”

Groan.. I give up.

partypup, I assume you make these posts to entertain yourself. But if you are trying to figure out what’s most likely to happen, then your comment about the OPEC countries not taking any number of dollars in return for giving us their oil doesn’t fit with your conclusion that oil will be at $5. If people accept $5 in return for a gallon of gasoline, then that means oil exporters will accept dollars too. They may just want more of them. There’s a difference between a 30% or even 50% devaluation of a currency and its complete collapse. One is Bladerunner, the other is Mad Max.

[patientrenter]

“Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.”

Groan.. I give up.

partypup, I assume you make these posts to entertain yourself. But if you are trying to figure out what’s most likely to happen, then your comment about the OPEC countries not taking any number of dollars in return for giving us their oil doesn’t fit with your conclusion that oil will be at $5. If people accept $5 in return for a gallon of gasoline, then that means oil exporters will accept dollars too. They may just want more of them. There’s a difference between a 30% or even 50% devaluation of a currency and its complete collapse. One is Bladerunner, the other is Mad Max.

[patientrenter]

“Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.”

Groan.. I give up.

partypup, I assume you make these posts to entertain yourself. But if you are trying to figure out what’s most likely to happen, then your comment about the OPEC countries not taking any number of dollars in return for giving us their oil doesn’t fit with your conclusion that oil will be at $5. If people accept $5 in return for a gallon of gasoline, then that means oil exporters will accept dollars too. They may just want more of them. There’s a difference between a 30% or even 50% devaluation of a currency and its complete collapse. One is Bladerunner, the other is Mad Max.

[partypup]

[quote=4plexowner]”but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that”

by this comment I assume you mean that he will buy US Treasuries all along the curve in order to suppress both short and long-term interest rates – how else can he stop rates from rising?

in order to buy US Treasuries the Fed is already engaging in “quantitative easing” (which is just the latest mind-fuck for printing fiat currency as fast as possible) and you are proposing that they will increase these efforts

“Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today.”

so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?[/quote]

Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.

And this doesn’t help our prospects:

“Obama: ‘We’re out of money'”

I wish he would have realized that about $11 trillion ago.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/05/obama_were_out_of_money.html

[partypup]

[quote=4plexowner]”but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that”

by this comment I assume you mean that he will buy US Treasuries all along the curve in order to suppress both short and long-term interest rates – how else can he stop rates from rising?

in order to buy US Treasuries the Fed is already engaging in “quantitative easing” (which is just the latest mind-fuck for printing fiat currency as fast as possible) and you are proposing that they will increase these efforts

“Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today.”

so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?[/quote]

Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.

And this doesn’t help our prospects:

“Obama: ‘We’re out of money'”

I wish he would have realized that about $11 trillion ago.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/05/obama_were_out_of_money.html

[partypup]

[quote=4plexowner]”but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that”

by this comment I assume you mean that he will buy US Treasuries all along the curve in order to suppress both short and long-term interest rates – how else can he stop rates from rising?

in order to buy US Treasuries the Fed is already engaging in “quantitative easing” (which is just the latest mind-fuck for printing fiat currency as fast as possible) and you are proposing that they will increase these efforts

“Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today.”

so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?[/quote]

Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.

And this doesn’t help our prospects:

“Obama: ‘We’re out of money'”

I wish he would have realized that about $11 trillion ago.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/05/obama_were_out_of_money.html

[partypup]

[quote=4plexowner]”but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that”

by this comment I assume you mean that he will buy US Treasuries all along the curve in order to suppress both short and long-term interest rates – how else can he stop rates from rising?

in order to buy US Treasuries the Fed is already engaging in “quantitative easing” (which is just the latest mind-fuck for printing fiat currency as fast as possible) and you are proposing that they will increase these efforts

“Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today.”

so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?[/quote]

Bernanke has completely lost control. The Fed is now at the mercy of the purchasers of our debt. And he won’t be able to restrain interest rates for long. So I believe we will be slipping into the extremis state within the next twelve (12) months, if not sooner. At that point I would expect exporters to begin requiring many more dollars for products sold to the U.S., and in the case of hard assets with higher *real* value (such as oil), dollars may not be accepted at all, and this is already the case with at least one OPEC country (Iran) that has recently decided that the greenback — no matter how many they receive — is simply too worthless to purchase their oil. Venezuela will probably follow suit, as Iran is putting pressure on other OPEC countries to ditch the dollar altogether. I wouldn’t expect this to happen overnight, but when the dollar collapse begins in earnest I wouldn’t count on being able to find $2.59 gas. Think more along the lines of $5.

And this doesn’t help our prospects:

“Obama: ‘We’re out of money'”

I wish he would have realized that about $11 trillion ago.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/05/obama_were_out_of_money.html

[4plexowner]

“but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that”

by this comment I assume you mean that he will buy US Treasuries all along the curve in order to suppress both short and long-term interest rates – how else can he stop rates from rising?

in order to buy US Treasuries the Fed is already engaging in “quantitative easing” (which is just the latest mind-fuck for printing fiat currency as fast as possible) and you are proposing that they will increase these efforts

“Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today.”

so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?

[4plexowner]

“but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that”

by this comment I assume you mean that he will buy US Treasuries all along the curve in order to suppress both short and long-term interest rates – how else can he stop rates from rising?

in order to buy US Treasuries the Fed is already engaging in “quantitative easing” (which is just the latest mind-fuck for printing fiat currency as fast as possible) and you are proposing that they will increase these efforts

“Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today.”

so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?

[4plexowner]

“but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that”

by this comment I assume you mean that he will buy US Treasuries all along the curve in order to suppress both short and long-term interest rates – how else can he stop rates from rising?

in order to buy US Treasuries the Fed is already engaging in “quantitative easing” (which is just the latest mind-fuck for printing fiat currency as fast as possible) and you are proposing that they will increase these efforts

“Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today.”

so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?

[4plexowner]

“but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that”

by this comment I assume you mean that he will buy US Treasuries all along the curve in order to suppress both short and long-term interest rates – how else can he stop rates from rising?

in order to buy US Treasuries the Fed is already engaging in “quantitative easing” (which is just the latest mind-fuck for printing fiat currency as fast as possible) and you are proposing that they will increase these efforts

“Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today.”

so how much “quantitative easing” can the Fed perform before we reach the “extremis” state?

[patientrenter]

partypup, you are a lawyer, so although you are not an economist, you do know how to take apart transactions.

The basic transaction in international trade that we are discussing here (I think) is the purchase by US consumers of goods made by people in other countries. In return, those people currently accept dollars. Yes, I know they may decide they want more dollars, but they still accept the dollars.

Since these people in other countries don’t consume as much as us, they don’t need to spend all the dollars at once. So they send the dollars back to the US, and buy promises from us to give them more dollars in the future (e.g. through US Treasury bonds).

With China and OPEC and Russia etc holding a few trillion of our US Treasury bonds, and bonds from GSEs like FNMA, they have NO CHOICE about accepting future dollars. They have already made the deal to accept future dollars. All the bonds issued by the US govt and the GSEs are denominated in dollars, so China etc have no options – they must accept dollar interest and principal repayments on the bonds they’ve already purchased from us. That covers everything that’s happened in the past.

Turning to the future, will these foreign exporters continue to accept promises from us of future dollars in return for sending us real goods? If they veer away from that, it will show up first as higher yields on US bonds (but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that) or a lower foreign exchange value for the US dollar. That will continue for a while (a few years at least.) Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today. Then we will have to issue Yuan-denominated US govt bonds. But that’s years away, if ever.

[patientrenter]

partypup, you are a lawyer, so although you are not an economist, you do know how to take apart transactions.

The basic transaction in international trade that we are discussing here (I think) is the purchase by US consumers of goods made by people in other countries. In return, those people currently accept dollars. Yes, I know they may decide they want more dollars, but they still accept the dollars.

Since these people in other countries don’t consume as much as us, they don’t need to spend all the dollars at once. So they send the dollars back to the US, and buy promises from us to give them more dollars in the future (e.g. through US Treasury bonds).

With China and OPEC and Russia etc holding a few trillion of our US Treasury bonds, and bonds from GSEs like FNMA, they have NO CHOICE about accepting future dollars. They have already made the deal to accept future dollars. All the bonds issued by the US govt and the GSEs are denominated in dollars, so China etc have no options – they must accept dollar interest and principal repayments on the bonds they’ve already purchased from us. That covers everything that’s happened in the past.

Turning to the future, will these foreign exporters continue to accept promises from us of future dollars in return for sending us real goods? If they veer away from that, it will show up first as higher yields on US bonds (but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that) or a lower foreign exchange value for the US dollar. That will continue for a while (a few years at least.) Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today. Then we will have to issue Yuan-denominated US govt bonds. But that’s years away, if ever.

[patientrenter]

partypup, you are a lawyer, so although you are not an economist, you do know how to take apart transactions.

The basic transaction in international trade that we are discussing here (I think) is the purchase by US consumers of goods made by people in other countries. In return, those people currently accept dollars. Yes, I know they may decide they want more dollars, but they still accept the dollars.

Since these people in other countries don’t consume as much as us, they don’t need to spend all the dollars at once. So they send the dollars back to the US, and buy promises from us to give them more dollars in the future (e.g. through US Treasury bonds).

With China and OPEC and Russia etc holding a few trillion of our US Treasury bonds, and bonds from GSEs like FNMA, they have NO CHOICE about accepting future dollars. They have already made the deal to accept future dollars. All the bonds issued by the US govt and the GSEs are denominated in dollars, so China etc have no options – they must accept dollar interest and principal repayments on the bonds they’ve already purchased from us. That covers everything that’s happened in the past.

Turning to the future, will these foreign exporters continue to accept promises from us of future dollars in return for sending us real goods? If they veer away from that, it will show up first as higher yields on US bonds (but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that) or a lower foreign exchange value for the US dollar. That will continue for a while (a few years at least.) Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today. Then we will have to issue Yuan-denominated US govt bonds. But that’s years away, if ever.

[patientrenter]

partypup, you are a lawyer, so although you are not an economist, you do know how to take apart transactions.

The basic transaction in international trade that we are discussing here (I think) is the purchase by US consumers of goods made by people in other countries. In return, those people currently accept dollars. Yes, I know they may decide they want more dollars, but they still accept the dollars.

Since these people in other countries don’t consume as much as us, they don’t need to spend all the dollars at once. So they send the dollars back to the US, and buy promises from us to give them more dollars in the future (e.g. through US Treasury bonds).

With China and OPEC and Russia etc holding a few trillion of our US Treasury bonds, and bonds from GSEs like FNMA, they have NO CHOICE about accepting future dollars. They have already made the deal to accept future dollars. All the bonds issued by the US govt and the GSEs are denominated in dollars, so China etc have no options – they must accept dollar interest and principal repayments on the bonds they’ve already purchased from us. That covers everything that’s happened in the past.

Turning to the future, will these foreign exporters continue to accept promises from us of future dollars in return for sending us real goods? If they veer away from that, it will show up first as higher yields on US bonds (but Mr Bernanke will put a stop to that) or a lower foreign exchange value for the US dollar. That will continue for a while (a few years at least.) Only in extremis will it proceed to the next step, where these exporters feel the future value of the dollar is so unreliable that they will not accept ANY AMOUNT of future dollars in exchange for a real good today. Then we will have to issue Yuan-denominated US govt bonds. But that’s years away, if ever.

[partypup]

[quote=barnaby33]patientrenter, you should know by now not to stop partypup when he gets wound up. Is entertaining.[/quote]

LOL. I will admit to getting wound up on occasions, Josh, but for the record I’m a woman. But I am glad that I at least provide cheap entertainment for you 😉

[partypup]

[quote=barnaby33]patientrenter, you should know by now not to stop partypup when he gets wound up. Is entertaining.[/quote]

LOL. I will admit to getting wound up on occasions, Josh, but for the record I’m a woman. But I am glad that I at least provide cheap entertainment for you 😉

[partypup]

[quote=barnaby33]patientrenter, you should know by now not to stop partypup when he gets wound up. Is entertaining.[/quote]

LOL. I will admit to getting wound up on occasions, Josh, but for the record I’m a woman. But I am glad that I at least provide cheap entertainment for you 😉

[partypup]

[quote=barnaby33]patientrenter, you should know by now not to stop partypup when he gets wound up. Is entertaining.[/quote]

LOL. I will admit to getting wound up on occasions, Josh, but for the record I’m a woman. But I am glad that I at least provide cheap entertainment for you 😉

[barnaby33]

patientrenter, you should know by now not to stop partypup when he gets wound up. Is entertaining.

We’re fucked, everyone else is fucked worse. The yuan/renmimbi is not about to become a global currency, though gold may increase in value. I have my doubts about that. If bond yields ramp/prices fall, the actual dollar (as in green paper) will strengthen. Inflation is more than likely our future, but we are still strongly in deflationary territory.

Josh

[barnaby33]

patientrenter, you should know by now not to stop partypup when he gets wound up. Is entertaining.

We’re fucked, everyone else is fucked worse. The yuan/renmimbi is not about to become a global currency, though gold may increase in value. I have my doubts about that. If bond yields ramp/prices fall, the actual dollar (as in green paper) will strengthen. Inflation is more than likely our future, but we are still strongly in deflationary territory.

Josh

[barnaby33]

patientrenter, you should know by now not to stop partypup when he gets wound up. Is entertaining.

We’re fucked, everyone else is fucked worse. The yuan/renmimbi is not about to become a global currency, though gold may increase in value. I have my doubts about that. If bond yields ramp/prices fall, the actual dollar (as in green paper) will strengthen. Inflation is more than likely our future, but we are still strongly in deflationary territory.

Josh

[barnaby33]

patientrenter, you should know by now not to stop partypup when he gets wound up. Is entertaining.

We’re fucked, everyone else is fucked worse. The yuan/renmimbi is not about to become a global currency, though gold may increase in value. I have my doubts about that. If bond yields ramp/prices fall, the actual dollar (as in green paper) will strengthen. Inflation is more than likely our future, but we are still strongly in deflationary territory.

Josh

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter]partypup, a default occurs when the person who is supposed to pay does not pay, not when the person who is owed refuses to accept the payments.[/quote]

I understand your point about a default technically not occurring as long as a debtor is making payments. But a debtor can’t make a creditor accept her payments, and we’re not talking about paying a credit card bill from JP Morgan Chase. If Chase didn’t accept my payment, I would undoubtedly file a claim and bring the matter to court to compel payment and have my debt cleared.

However, there is no such authority that can compel one nation to accept another nation’s intentionally-devalued crap currency as payment for a loan made in good faith. I am just speaking in practical terms. If China (or Russia) decides that a dollar that is worth 50% of what it was when the loan was made no longer constitutes sufficient payment for our debts, then they can and will default us, and there’s nothing I can see that would prevent them from doing so. Who would we appeal to? And if there were an appropriate tribunal, what legal grounds would we have to argue against default? “Yeah, we knew we owed a LOT of money, so we basically just decided to run the printing presses all night and give our creditors something worthless. That’s okay, right?” This is no about a debtor who attempts in good faith attempt to repay a debt and is prevented from doing so. This is about a debtor who has decided to pull the ultimate scam on his creditors. So legally and practically speaking, I don’t think the U.S. has the power or the grounds to resist a default.

[quote=patientrenter]Eventually, the dollar will reach a value that satisfies our foreign trade parties. It’s not going to be zero. I just don’t see why a large devaluation has to go all the way to zero. This is not how these things work historically. The US has problems, but it does have good infrastructure, food and water supply, open space, and other basics of a good modern life. At some point that puts a floor under the value of US assets and even the dollar.
[/quote]

I agree, I can’t imagine the dollar going to zero. But I think a 50-70% devaluation is not unlikely. And I don’t think the dollar would have to go to zero before (a) foreign investment did a U-turn and starting flowing elsewhere (which is already happening now) and (b) the dollar loses its sole reserve currency status. A U.S. without the sole reserve currency and a strong military simply is not a very attractive place for investment and not the ideal safe haven. As one of my friends observed this weekend, it’s now becoming very clear that the U.S. had a phony, illusory economy for the last 3 decades, built on paper and hype. And the only reason it has lasted this long is because we carried the biggest stick and had the only currency in town. When that changes, the U.S. won’t be in a better position than any other “developed” nation, and in fact we actually be in a worse position (at least in the short-to-mid term) because (a) our open space with 300 million (some heavily-armed) will make it difficult to keep order when the machine breaks down, (b) our unprecedented debt will make it harder for us to recover than nations with much less debt and (c) our uniquely heterogeneous population presents significant challenges in allocating limited resources because of competing social interests and cultures.

But hey, I am not predicting the end of the U.S. Far from it. But there’s no way that we will come out of this debacle as a superpower that controls all the chess pieces on the board. This country will simply go dormant for a generation or two while we rebuild, re-orient and re-discover our core values. This will present tremendous opportunities for those born today. Unfortunately, my time horizon is much shorter, and I doubt your or I will live to see this resurgence. So we have to deal with the reality of the coming years and prepare accordingly.

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter]partypup, a default occurs when the person who is supposed to pay does not pay, not when the person who is owed refuses to accept the payments.[/quote]

I understand your point about a default technically not occurring as long as a debtor is making payments. But a debtor can’t make a creditor accept her payments, and we’re not talking about paying a credit card bill from JP Morgan Chase. If Chase didn’t accept my payment, I would undoubtedly file a claim and bring the matter to court to compel payment and have my debt cleared.

However, there is no such authority that can compel one nation to accept another nation’s intentionally-devalued crap currency as payment for a loan made in good faith. I am just speaking in practical terms. If China (or Russia) decides that a dollar that is worth 50% of what it was when the loan was made no longer constitutes sufficient payment for our debts, then they can and will default us, and there’s nothing I can see that would prevent them from doing so. Who would we appeal to? And if there were an appropriate tribunal, what legal grounds would we have to argue against default? “Yeah, we knew we owed a LOT of money, so we basically just decided to run the printing presses all night and give our creditors something worthless. That’s okay, right?” This is no about a debtor who attempts in good faith attempt to repay a debt and is prevented from doing so. This is about a debtor who has decided to pull the ultimate scam on his creditors. So legally and practically speaking, I don’t think the U.S. has the power or the grounds to resist a default.

[quote=patientrenter]Eventually, the dollar will reach a value that satisfies our foreign trade parties. It’s not going to be zero. I just don’t see why a large devaluation has to go all the way to zero. This is not how these things work historically. The US has problems, but it does have good infrastructure, food and water supply, open space, and other basics of a good modern life. At some point that puts a floor under the value of US assets and even the dollar.
[/quote]

I agree, I can’t imagine the dollar going to zero. But I think a 50-70% devaluation is not unlikely. And I don’t think the dollar would have to go to zero before (a) foreign investment did a U-turn and starting flowing elsewhere (which is already happening now) and (b) the dollar loses its sole reserve currency status. A U.S. without the sole reserve currency and a strong military simply is not a very attractive place for investment and not the ideal safe haven. As one of my friends observed this weekend, it’s now becoming very clear that the U.S. had a phony, illusory economy for the last 3 decades, built on paper and hype. And the only reason it has lasted this long is because we carried the biggest stick and had the only currency in town. When that changes, the U.S. won’t be in a better position than any other “developed” nation, and in fact we actually be in a worse position (at least in the short-to-mid term) because (a) our open space with 300 million (some heavily-armed) will make it difficult to keep order when the machine breaks down, (b) our unprecedented debt will make it harder for us to recover than nations with much less debt and (c) our uniquely heterogeneous population presents significant challenges in allocating limited resources because of competing social interests and cultures.

But hey, I am not predicting the end of the U.S. Far from it. But there’s no way that we will come out of this debacle as a superpower that controls all the chess pieces on the board. This country will simply go dormant for a generation or two while we rebuild, re-orient and re-discover our core values. This will present tremendous opportunities for those born today. Unfortunately, my time horizon is much shorter, and I doubt your or I will live to see this resurgence. So we have to deal with the reality of the coming years and prepare accordingly.

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter]partypup, a default occurs when the person who is supposed to pay does not pay, not when the person who is owed refuses to accept the payments.[/quote]

I understand your point about a default technically not occurring as long as a debtor is making payments. But a debtor can’t make a creditor accept her payments, and we’re not talking about paying a credit card bill from JP Morgan Chase. If Chase didn’t accept my payment, I would undoubtedly file a claim and bring the matter to court to compel payment and have my debt cleared.

However, there is no such authority that can compel one nation to accept another nation’s intentionally-devalued crap currency as payment for a loan made in good faith. I am just speaking in practical terms. If China (or Russia) decides that a dollar that is worth 50% of what it was when the loan was made no longer constitutes sufficient payment for our debts, then they can and will default us, and there’s nothing I can see that would prevent them from doing so. Who would we appeal to? And if there were an appropriate tribunal, what legal grounds would we have to argue against default? “Yeah, we knew we owed a LOT of money, so we basically just decided to run the printing presses all night and give our creditors something worthless. That’s okay, right?” This is no about a debtor who attempts in good faith attempt to repay a debt and is prevented from doing so. This is about a debtor who has decided to pull the ultimate scam on his creditors. So legally and practically speaking, I don’t think the U.S. has the power or the grounds to resist a default.

[quote=patientrenter]Eventually, the dollar will reach a value that satisfies our foreign trade parties. It’s not going to be zero. I just don’t see why a large devaluation has to go all the way to zero. This is not how these things work historically. The US has problems, but it does have good infrastructure, food and water supply, open space, and other basics of a good modern life. At some point that puts a floor under the value of US assets and even the dollar.
[/quote]

I agree, I can’t imagine the dollar going to zero. But I think a 50-70% devaluation is not unlikely. And I don’t think the dollar would have to go to zero before (a) foreign investment did a U-turn and starting flowing elsewhere (which is already happening now) and (b) the dollar loses its sole reserve currency status. A U.S. without the sole reserve currency and a strong military simply is not a very attractive place for investment and not the ideal safe haven. As one of my friends observed this weekend, it’s now becoming very clear that the U.S. had a phony, illusory economy for the last 3 decades, built on paper and hype. And the only reason it has lasted this long is because we carried the biggest stick and had the only currency in town. When that changes, the U.S. won’t be in a better position than any other “developed” nation, and in fact we actually be in a worse position (at least in the short-to-mid term) because (a) our open space with 300 million (some heavily-armed) will make it difficult to keep order when the machine breaks down, (b) our unprecedented debt will make it harder for us to recover than nations with much less debt and (c) our uniquely heterogeneous population presents significant challenges in allocating limited resources because of competing social interests and cultures.

But hey, I am not predicting the end of the U.S. Far from it. But there’s no way that we will come out of this debacle as a superpower that controls all the chess pieces on the board. This country will simply go dormant for a generation or two while we rebuild, re-orient and re-discover our core values. This will present tremendous opportunities for those born today. Unfortunately, my time horizon is much shorter, and I doubt your or I will live to see this resurgence. So we have to deal with the reality of the coming years and prepare accordingly.

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter]partypup, a default occurs when the person who is supposed to pay does not pay, not when the person who is owed refuses to accept the payments.[/quote]

I understand your point about a default technically not occurring as long as a debtor is making payments. But a debtor can’t make a creditor accept her payments, and we’re not talking about paying a credit card bill from JP Morgan Chase. If Chase didn’t accept my payment, I would undoubtedly file a claim and bring the matter to court to compel payment and have my debt cleared.

However, there is no such authority that can compel one nation to accept another nation’s intentionally-devalued crap currency as payment for a loan made in good faith. I am just speaking in practical terms. If China (or Russia) decides that a dollar that is worth 50% of what it was when the loan was made no longer constitutes sufficient payment for our debts, then they can and will default us, and there’s nothing I can see that would prevent them from doing so. Who would we appeal to? And if there were an appropriate tribunal, what legal grounds would we have to argue against default? “Yeah, we knew we owed a LOT of money, so we basically just decided to run the printing presses all night and give our creditors something worthless. That’s okay, right?” This is no about a debtor who attempts in good faith attempt to repay a debt and is prevented from doing so. This is about a debtor who has decided to pull the ultimate scam on his creditors. So legally and practically speaking, I don’t think the U.S. has the power or the grounds to resist a default.

[quote=patientrenter]Eventually, the dollar will reach a value that satisfies our foreign trade parties. It’s not going to be zero. I just don’t see why a large devaluation has to go all the way to zero. This is not how these things work historically. The US has problems, but it does have good infrastructure, food and water supply, open space, and other basics of a good modern life. At some point that puts a floor under the value of US assets and even the dollar.
[/quote]

I agree, I can’t imagine the dollar going to zero. But I think a 50-70% devaluation is not unlikely. And I don’t think the dollar would have to go to zero before (a) foreign investment did a U-turn and starting flowing elsewhere (which is already happening now) and (b) the dollar loses its sole reserve currency status. A U.S. without the sole reserve currency and a strong military simply is not a very attractive place for investment and not the ideal safe haven. As one of my friends observed this weekend, it’s now becoming very clear that the U.S. had a phony, illusory economy for the last 3 decades, built on paper and hype. And the only reason it has lasted this long is because we carried the biggest stick and had the only currency in town. When that changes, the U.S. won’t be in a better position than any other “developed” nation, and in fact we actually be in a worse position (at least in the short-to-mid term) because (a) our open space with 300 million (some heavily-armed) will make it difficult to keep order when the machine breaks down, (b) our unprecedented debt will make it harder for us to recover than nations with much less debt and (c) our uniquely heterogeneous population presents significant challenges in allocating limited resources because of competing social interests and cultures.

But hey, I am not predicting the end of the U.S. Far from it. But there’s no way that we will come out of this debacle as a superpower that controls all the chess pieces on the board. This country will simply go dormant for a generation or two while we rebuild, re-orient and re-discover our core values. This will present tremendous opportunities for those born today. Unfortunately, my time horizon is much shorter, and I doubt your or I will live to see this resurgence. So we have to deal with the reality of the coming years and prepare accordingly.

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter]partypup, a default occurs when the person who is supposed to pay does not pay, not when the person who is owed refuses to accept the payments.[/quote]

I understand your point about a default technically not occurring as long as a debtor is making payments. But a debtor can’t make a creditor accept her payments, and we’re not talking about paying a credit card bill from JP Morgan Chase. If Chase didn’t accept my payment, I would undoubtedly file a claim and bring the matter to court to compel payment and have my debt cleared.

However, there is no such authority that can compel one nation to accept another nation’s intentionally-devalued crap currency as payment for a loan made in good faith. I am just speaking in practical terms. If China (or Russia) decides that a dollar that is worth 50% of what it was when the loan was made no longer constitutes sufficient payment for our debts, then they can and will default us, and there’s nothing I can see that would prevent them from doing so. Who would we appeal to? And if there were an appropriate tribunal, what legal grounds would we have to argue against default? “Yeah, we knew we owed a LOT of money, so we basically just decided to run the printing presses all night and give our creditors something worthless. That’s okay, right?” This is no about a debtor who attempts in good faith attempt to repay a debt and is prevented from doing so. This is about a debtor who has decided to pull the ultimate scam on his creditors. So legally and practically speaking, I don’t think the U.S. has the power or the grounds to resist a default.

[quote=patientrenter]Eventually, the dollar will reach a value that satisfies our foreign trade parties. It’s not going to be zero. I just don’t see why a large devaluation has to go all the way to zero. This is not how these things work historically. The US has problems, but it does have good infrastructure, food and water supply, open space, and other basics of a good modern life. At some point that puts a floor under the value of US assets and even the dollar.
[/quote]

I agree, I can’t imagine the dollar going to zero. But I think a 50-70% devaluation is not unlikely. And I don’t think the dollar would have to go to zero before (a) foreign investment did a U-turn and starting flowing elsewhere (which is already happening now) and (b) the dollar loses its sole reserve currency status. A U.S. without the sole reserve currency and a strong military simply is not a very attractive place for investment and not the ideal safe haven. As one of my friends observed this weekend, it’s now becoming very clear that the U.S. had a phony, illusory economy for the last 3 decades, built on paper and hype. And the only reason it has lasted this long is because we carried the biggest stick and had the only currency in town. When that changes, the U.S. won’t be in a better position than any other “developed” nation, and in fact we actually be in a worse position (at least in the short-to-mid term) because (a) our open space with 300 million (some heavily-armed) will make it difficult to keep order when the machine breaks down, (b) our unprecedented debt will make it harder for us to recover than nations with much less debt and (c) our uniquely heterogeneous population presents significant challenges in allocating limited resources because of competing social interests and cultures.

But hey, I am not predicting the end of the U.S. Far from it. But there’s no way that we will come out of this debacle as a superpower that controls all the chess pieces on the board. This country will simply go dormant for a generation or two while we rebuild, re-orient and re-discover our core values. This will present tremendous opportunities for those born today. Unfortunately, my time horizon is much shorter, and I doubt your or I will live to see this resurgence. So we have to deal with the reality of the coming years and prepare accordingly.

[patientrenter]

partypup, a default occurs when the person who is supposed to pay does not pay, not when the person who is owed refuses to accept the payments.

If receiving future dollars becomes less interesting as a reward for exporting real goods and services to the US, then either the value of the dollar will fall, or interest rates on dollar debt will rise. If the US govt is committed to manipulating interest rates down (as they clearly are) then the outcome will be a drop in the value of the dollar. If a 20% reduction is not enough to entice foreigners to sell us stuff on credit, then it will go to 30%, and if that is not enough…

Eventually, the dollar will reach a value that satisfies our foreign trade parties. It’s not going to be zero. I just don’t see why a large devaluation has to go all the way to zero. This is not how these things work historically. The US has problems, but it does have good infrastructure, food and water supply, open space, and other basics of a good modern life. At some point that puts a floor under the value of US assets and even the dollar.

[patientrenter]

partypup, a default occurs when the person who is supposed to pay does not pay, not when the person who is owed refuses to accept the payments.

If receiving future dollars becomes less interesting as a reward for exporting real goods and services to the US, then either the value of the dollar will fall, or interest rates on dollar debt will rise. If the US govt is committed to manipulating interest rates down (as they clearly are) then the outcome will be a drop in the value of the dollar. If a 20% reduction is not enough to entice foreigners to sell us stuff on credit, then it will go to 30%, and if that is not enough…

Eventually, the dollar will reach a value that satisfies our foreign trade parties. It’s not going to be zero. I just don’t see why a large devaluation has to go all the way to zero. This is not how these things work historically. The US has problems, but it does have good infrastructure, food and water supply, open space, and other basics of a good modern life. At some point that puts a floor under the value of US assets and even the dollar.

[patientrenter]

partypup, a default occurs when the person who is supposed to pay does not pay, not when the person who is owed refuses to accept the payments.

If receiving future dollars becomes less interesting as a reward for exporting real goods and services to the US, then either the value of the dollar will fall, or interest rates on dollar debt will rise. If the US govt is committed to manipulating interest rates down (as they clearly are) then the outcome will be a drop in the value of the dollar. If a 20% reduction is not enough to entice foreigners to sell us stuff on credit, then it will go to 30%, and if that is not enough…

Eventually, the dollar will reach a value that satisfies our foreign trade parties. It’s not going to be zero. I just don’t see why a large devaluation has to go all the way to zero. This is not how these things work historically. The US has problems, but it does have good infrastructure, food and water supply, open space, and other basics of a good modern life. At some point that puts a floor under the value of US assets and even the dollar.

[patientrenter]

partypup, a default occurs when the person who is supposed to pay does not pay, not when the person who is owed refuses to accept the payments.

If receiving future dollars becomes less interesting as a reward for exporting real goods and services to the US, then either the value of the dollar will fall, or interest rates on dollar debt will rise. If the US govt is committed to manipulating interest rates down (as they clearly are) then the outcome will be a drop in the value of the dollar. If a 20% reduction is not enough to entice foreigners to sell us stuff on credit, then it will go to 30%, and if that is not enough…

Eventually, the dollar will reach a value that satisfies our foreign trade parties. It’s not going to be zero. I just don’t see why a large devaluation has to go all the way to zero. This is not how these things work historically. The US has problems, but it does have good infrastructure, food and water supply, open space, and other basics of a good modern life. At some point that puts a floor under the value of US assets and even the dollar.

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter]4plex, my point was that the US govt can ALWAYS repay its dollar-denominated debt, so the chance that it won’t seems vanishingly small to me.
[/quote]

P Renter, I understand what you’re saying in principle, but here’s my question: what happens when the dollar becomes so devalued that our creditors refuse to accept it? In such a scenario, the US gov’t would NOT be able to repay its dollar-denominated debt. Imagine that a debtor with insanely high debts has consistently been paying a creditor with a currency of real value. Now, imagine the debtor discovers that he no longer has access to a currency holding real value and instead begins to offer his creditors sea shells as payment. Yes, the debtor is technically attempting repayment. But if the payments aren’t accepted, a default ensues. The facts in this analogy aren’t entirely similar (since we aren’t converting our dollars into another form of payment like sea shells), but the concept is the same. A debtor cannot repay a debt if her payments are rejected. I think you are assuming that as long as a debtor presents something that she considers to be of “value”, his creditor is obligated to accept such payment. I think this is a false assumption.

When (not if) the dollar loses its status as the sole reserve currency, I think we may be looking at the possibility that severely devalued US dollars will eventually not be accepted as payment for imports or any forms of foreign debt because the dollars that a creditor accepts today may be worth even less tomorrow! Instead, the US will be required to come up with stronger currency (or gold) to repay its debts. This would be a common sense move for any US creditor under the circumstances. And that’s when things will start to get very interesting.

By next summer, I think there are going to be a whole lot of people who wished they had gotten busy adding gold to their portfolio. It could be going parabolic within months. Of course, precious metals will eventually turn into another bubble in a few years, but the prudent investor will use their dollar profits to do what the Chinese have been doing for the past year: buy hard assets like land, food, guns, ammo, medicine, equipment, seeds, etc.

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter]4plex, my point was that the US govt can ALWAYS repay its dollar-denominated debt, so the chance that it won’t seems vanishingly small to me.
[/quote]

P Renter, I understand what you’re saying in principle, but here’s my question: what happens when the dollar becomes so devalued that our creditors refuse to accept it? In such a scenario, the US gov’t would NOT be able to repay its dollar-denominated debt. Imagine that a debtor with insanely high debts has consistently been paying a creditor with a currency of real value. Now, imagine the debtor discovers that he no longer has access to a currency holding real value and instead begins to offer his creditors sea shells as payment. Yes, the debtor is technically attempting repayment. But if the payments aren’t accepted, a default ensues. The facts in this analogy aren’t entirely similar (since we aren’t converting our dollars into another form of payment like sea shells), but the concept is the same. A debtor cannot repay a debt if her payments are rejected. I think you are assuming that as long as a debtor presents something that she considers to be of “value”, his creditor is obligated to accept such payment. I think this is a false assumption.

When (not if) the dollar loses its status as the sole reserve currency, I think we may be looking at the possibility that severely devalued US dollars will eventually not be accepted as payment for imports or any forms of foreign debt because the dollars that a creditor accepts today may be worth even less tomorrow! Instead, the US will be required to come up with stronger currency (or gold) to repay its debts. This would be a common sense move for any US creditor under the circumstances. And that’s when things will start to get very interesting.

By next summer, I think there are going to be a whole lot of people who wished they had gotten busy adding gold to their portfolio. It could be going parabolic within months. Of course, precious metals will eventually turn into another bubble in a few years, but the prudent investor will use their dollar profits to do what the Chinese have been doing for the past year: buy hard assets like land, food, guns, ammo, medicine, equipment, seeds, etc.

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter]4plex, my point was that the US govt can ALWAYS repay its dollar-denominated debt, so the chance that it won’t seems vanishingly small to me.
[/quote]

P Renter, I understand what you’re saying in principle, but here’s my question: what happens when the dollar becomes so devalued that our creditors refuse to accept it? In such a scenario, the US gov’t would NOT be able to repay its dollar-denominated debt. Imagine that a debtor with insanely high debts has consistently been paying a creditor with a currency of real value. Now, imagine the debtor discovers that he no longer has access to a currency holding real value and instead begins to offer his creditors sea shells as payment. Yes, the debtor is technically attempting repayment. But if the payments aren’t accepted, a default ensues. The facts in this analogy aren’t entirely similar (since we aren’t converting our dollars into another form of payment like sea shells), but the concept is the same. A debtor cannot repay a debt if her payments are rejected. I think you are assuming that as long as a debtor presents something that she considers to be of “value”, his creditor is obligated to accept such payment. I think this is a false assumption.

When (not if) the dollar loses its status as the sole reserve currency, I think we may be looking at the possibility that severely devalued US dollars will eventually not be accepted as payment for imports or any forms of foreign debt because the dollars that a creditor accepts today may be worth even less tomorrow! Instead, the US will be required to come up with stronger currency (or gold) to repay its debts. This would be a common sense move for any US creditor under the circumstances. And that’s when things will start to get very interesting.

By next summer, I think there are going to be a whole lot of people who wished they had gotten busy adding gold to their portfolio. It could be going parabolic within months. Of course, precious metals will eventually turn into another bubble in a few years, but the prudent investor will use their dollar profits to do what the Chinese have been doing for the past year: buy hard assets like land, food, guns, ammo, medicine, equipment, seeds, etc.

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter]4plex, my point was that the US govt can ALWAYS repay its dollar-denominated debt, so the chance that it won’t seems vanishingly small to me.
[/quote]

P Renter, I understand what you’re saying in principle, but here’s my question: what happens when the dollar becomes so devalued that our creditors refuse to accept it? In such a scenario, the US gov’t would NOT be able to repay its dollar-denominated debt. Imagine that a debtor with insanely high debts has consistently been paying a creditor with a currency of real value. Now, imagine the debtor discovers that he no longer has access to a currency holding real value and instead begins to offer his creditors sea shells as payment. Yes, the debtor is technically attempting repayment. But if the payments aren’t accepted, a default ensues. The facts in this analogy aren’t entirely similar (since we aren’t converting our dollars into another form of payment like sea shells), but the concept is the same. A debtor cannot repay a debt if her payments are rejected. I think you are assuming that as long as a debtor presents something that she considers to be of “value”, his creditor is obligated to accept such payment. I think this is a false assumption.

When (not if) the dollar loses its status as the sole reserve currency, I think we may be looking at the possibility that severely devalued US dollars will eventually not be accepted as payment for imports or any forms of foreign debt because the dollars that a creditor accepts today may be worth even less tomorrow! Instead, the US will be required to come up with stronger currency (or gold) to repay its debts. This would be a common sense move for any US creditor under the circumstances. And that’s when things will start to get very interesting.

By next summer, I think there are going to be a whole lot of people who wished they had gotten busy adding gold to their portfolio. It could be going parabolic within months. Of course, precious metals will eventually turn into another bubble in a few years, but the prudent investor will use their dollar profits to do what the Chinese have been doing for the past year: buy hard assets like land, food, guns, ammo, medicine, equipment, seeds, etc.

[patientrenter]

4plex, my point was that the US govt can ALWAYS repay its dollar-denominated debt, so the chance that it won’t seems vanishingly small to me. Yes, the real value of the repayments may shrivel due to inflation (and my opinion is that they will), but are the rating agencies really factoring in that future implicit partial default caused by inflation into their US Treasury credit risk ratings? Do they actually say that?

[patientrenter]

4plex, my point was that the US govt can ALWAYS repay its dollar-denominated debt, so the chance that it won’t seems vanishingly small to me. Yes, the real value of the repayments may shrivel due to inflation (and my opinion is that they will), but are the rating agencies really factoring in that future implicit partial default caused by inflation into their US Treasury credit risk ratings? Do they actually say that?

[patientrenter]

4plex, my point was that the US govt can ALWAYS repay its dollar-denominated debt, so the chance that it won’t seems vanishingly small to me. Yes, the real value of the repayments may shrivel due to inflation (and my opinion is that they will), but are the rating agencies really factoring in that future implicit partial default caused by inflation into their US Treasury credit risk ratings? Do they actually say that?

[patientrenter]

4plex, my point was that the US govt can ALWAYS repay its dollar-denominated debt, so the chance that it won’t seems vanishingly small to me. Yes, the real value of the repayments may shrivel due to inflation (and my opinion is that they will), but are the rating agencies really factoring in that future implicit partial default caused by inflation into their US Treasury credit risk ratings? Do they actually say that?

[4plexowner]

“I too don’t understand why sovereign US debt (denominated in dollars) wouldn’t always be AAA-rated.”

At what point does common sense tell people that a debt that can’t be repaid, won’t be repaid?

If the existing liabilities are already un-payable, how can we maintain that new debt is rated AAA?

The US liability list is currently $60 or $70 trillion dollars and most of this is unfunded – our president is acknowledging trillion dollar per year deficits for the next 10 years taking our liabilities to the $70-80 trillion range

At the same time we have this mountain of unfunded liabilities, we have a major demographic shift occurring where 25% of our workforce wants to retire and enjoy their golden years

This demographic shift will open up jobs for younger generations but place a larger and larger burden on Social Security and Medicare programs

I read recently that future generations would have to be three times as productive as us and pay 100% of their earnings towards taxes to ever pay off this debt load

Obviously this isn’t going to happen so we are back to my underlying premise: a debt that can’t be repaid won’t be repaid

~

The most recent default of US debt occurred in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window on international trade – the world had little option other than to go along with that default – now there are options as China is demonstrating (as an aside, we are seeing history in the making here as China converts the yuan to the world’s reserve currency of choice – this type of change only occurs every 200 or 300 years)

[4plexowner]

“I too don’t understand why sovereign US debt (denominated in dollars) wouldn’t always be AAA-rated.”

At what point does common sense tell people that a debt that can’t be repaid, won’t be repaid?

If the existing liabilities are already un-payable, how can we maintain that new debt is rated AAA?

The US liability list is currently $60 or $70 trillion dollars and most of this is unfunded – our president is acknowledging trillion dollar per year deficits for the next 10 years taking our liabilities to the $70-80 trillion range

At the same time we have this mountain of unfunded liabilities, we have a major demographic shift occurring where 25% of our workforce wants to retire and enjoy their golden years

This demographic shift will open up jobs for younger generations but place a larger and larger burden on Social Security and Medicare programs

I read recently that future generations would have to be three times as productive as us and pay 100% of their earnings towards taxes to ever pay off this debt load

Obviously this isn’t going to happen so we are back to my underlying premise: a debt that can’t be repaid won’t be repaid

~

The most recent default of US debt occurred in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window on international trade – the world had little option other than to go along with that default – now there are options as China is demonstrating (as an aside, we are seeing history in the making here as China converts the yuan to the world’s reserve currency of choice – this type of change only occurs every 200 or 300 years)

[4plexowner]

“I too don’t understand why sovereign US debt (denominated in dollars) wouldn’t always be AAA-rated.”

At what point does common sense tell people that a debt that can’t be repaid, won’t be repaid?

If the existing liabilities are already un-payable, how can we maintain that new debt is rated AAA?

The US liability list is currently $60 or $70 trillion dollars and most of this is unfunded – our president is acknowledging trillion dollar per year deficits for the next 10 years taking our liabilities to the $70-80 trillion range

At the same time we have this mountain of unfunded liabilities, we have a major demographic shift occurring where 25% of our workforce wants to retire and enjoy their golden years

This demographic shift will open up jobs for younger generations but place a larger and larger burden on Social Security and Medicare programs

I read recently that future generations would have to be three times as productive as us and pay 100% of their earnings towards taxes to ever pay off this debt load

Obviously this isn’t going to happen so we are back to my underlying premise: a debt that can’t be repaid won’t be repaid

~

The most recent default of US debt occurred in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window on international trade – the world had little option other than to go along with that default – now there are options as China is demonstrating (as an aside, we are seeing history in the making here as China converts the yuan to the world’s reserve currency of choice – this type of change only occurs every 200 or 300 years)

[4plexowner]

“I too don’t understand why sovereign US debt (denominated in dollars) wouldn’t always be AAA-rated.”

At what point does common sense tell people that a debt that can’t be repaid, won’t be repaid?

If the existing liabilities are already un-payable, how can we maintain that new debt is rated AAA?

The US liability list is currently $60 or $70 trillion dollars and most of this is unfunded – our president is acknowledging trillion dollar per year deficits for the next 10 years taking our liabilities to the $70-80 trillion range

At the same time we have this mountain of unfunded liabilities, we have a major demographic shift occurring where 25% of our workforce wants to retire and enjoy their golden years

This demographic shift will open up jobs for younger generations but place a larger and larger burden on Social Security and Medicare programs

I read recently that future generations would have to be three times as productive as us and pay 100% of their earnings towards taxes to ever pay off this debt load

Obviously this isn’t going to happen so we are back to my underlying premise: a debt that can’t be repaid won’t be repaid

~

The most recent default of US debt occurred in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window on international trade – the world had little option other than to go along with that default – now there are options as China is demonstrating (as an aside, we are seeing history in the making here as China converts the yuan to the world’s reserve currency of choice – this type of change only occurs every 200 or 300 years)

[bsrsharma]

U.K. Company Bonds Fall After S&P Cuts Rating Outlook

U.K. corporate bonds fell the most in six weeks and the cost of hedging against losses on government debt jumped, after Standard & Poor’s cut the outlook on the nation’s AAA credit rating to “negative.” …

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aoQZU_FvUSJI&refer=uk

It just happened in UK. The S&P thumb rule seems to be to downgrade sovereign debt when debt exceeds GDP. U.S. is close to that.

See also http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=344843

(‘We’re Out of Money Now’: Obama Outlines Fiscal Challenges Facing US)

[bsrsharma]

U.K. Company Bonds Fall After S&P Cuts Rating Outlook

U.K. corporate bonds fell the most in six weeks and the cost of hedging against losses on government debt jumped, after Standard & Poor’s cut the outlook on the nation’s AAA credit rating to “negative.” …

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aoQZU_FvUSJI&refer=uk

It just happened in UK. The S&P thumb rule seems to be to downgrade sovereign debt when debt exceeds GDP. U.S. is close to that.

See also http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=344843

(‘We’re Out of Money Now’: Obama Outlines Fiscal Challenges Facing US)

[bsrsharma]

U.K. Company Bonds Fall After S&P Cuts Rating Outlook

U.K. corporate bonds fell the most in six weeks and the cost of hedging against losses on government debt jumped, after Standard & Poor’s cut the outlook on the nation’s AAA credit rating to “negative.” …

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aoQZU_FvUSJI&refer=uk

It just happened in UK. The S&P thumb rule seems to be to downgrade sovereign debt when debt exceeds GDP. U.S. is close to that.

See also http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=344843

(‘We’re Out of Money Now’: Obama Outlines Fiscal Challenges Facing US)

[bsrsharma]

U.K. Company Bonds Fall After S&P Cuts Rating Outlook

U.K. corporate bonds fell the most in six weeks and the cost of hedging against losses on government debt jumped, after Standard & Poor’s cut the outlook on the nation’s AAA credit rating to “negative.” …

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aoQZU_FvUSJI&refer=uk

It just happened in UK. The S&P thumb rule seems to be to downgrade sovereign debt when debt exceeds GDP. U.S. is close to that.

See also http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=344843

(‘We’re Out of Money Now’: Obama Outlines Fiscal Challenges Facing US)

[patientrenter]

I too don’t understand why sovereign US debt (denominated in dollars) wouldn’t always be AAA-rated. I thought the rating agencies only rated for legal default. When the US defaults, it will not be a legal default, it will be an effective but partial and indirect default using inflation.

[patientrenter]

I too don’t understand why sovereign US debt (denominated in dollars) wouldn’t always be AAA-rated. I thought the rating agencies only rated for legal default. When the US defaults, it will not be a legal default, it will be an effective but partial and indirect default using inflation.

[patientrenter]

I too don’t understand why sovereign US debt (denominated in dollars) wouldn’t always be AAA-rated. I thought the rating agencies only rated for legal default. When the US defaults, it will not be a legal default, it will be an effective but partial and indirect default using inflation.

[patientrenter]

I too don’t understand why sovereign US debt (denominated in dollars) wouldn’t always be AAA-rated. I thought the rating agencies only rated for legal default. When the US defaults, it will not be a legal default, it will be an effective but partial and indirect default using inflation.

[bsrsharma]

Time to legalize counterfeiting

Many Americans today believe certain illegal vices in our society should be decriminalized, taxed, and regulated. The most popular of these vices include marijuana smoking, prostitution, and all forms of gambling. The proponents for decriminalization believe that the new tax revenues produced would help support schools, healthcare, and the impoverished, ease the pain of taxpayers, and reduce the deficit. They also believe that transgressions such as these will take place no matter, but, if properly regulated, would be safer for society in general. It would be a win, win situation.

Unfortunately, when it comes to lowering taxes and helping the downtrodden, the best-laid government plans seem to fall short of expectations. However, there is one vice, one small illegal indiscretion, that, if decriminalized would solve all our problems. The United States needs to legalize the victimless crime known as counterfeiting….

http://www.renewamerica.us/columns/witkov/090522

[bsrsharma]

Time to legalize counterfeiting

Many Americans today believe certain illegal vices in our society should be decriminalized, taxed, and regulated. The most popular of these vices include marijuana smoking, prostitution, and all forms of gambling. The proponents for decriminalization believe that the new tax revenues produced would help support schools, healthcare, and the impoverished, ease the pain of taxpayers, and reduce the deficit. They also believe that transgressions such as these will take place no matter, but, if properly regulated, would be safer for society in general. It would be a win, win situation.

Unfortunately, when it comes to lowering taxes and helping the downtrodden, the best-laid government plans seem to fall short of expectations. However, there is one vice, one small illegal indiscretion, that, if decriminalized would solve all our problems. The United States needs to legalize the victimless crime known as counterfeiting….

http://www.renewamerica.us/columns/witkov/090522

[bsrsharma]

Time to legalize counterfeiting

Many Americans today believe certain illegal vices in our society should be decriminalized, taxed, and regulated. The most popular of these vices include marijuana smoking, prostitution, and all forms of gambling. The proponents for decriminalization believe that the new tax revenues produced would help support schools, healthcare, and the impoverished, ease the pain of taxpayers, and reduce the deficit. They also believe that transgressions such as these will take place no matter, but, if properly regulated, would be safer for society in general. It would be a win, win situation.

Unfortunately, when it comes to lowering taxes and helping the downtrodden, the best-laid government plans seem to fall short of expectations. However, there is one vice, one small illegal indiscretion, that, if decriminalized would solve all our problems. The United States needs to legalize the victimless crime known as counterfeiting….

http://www.renewamerica.us/columns/witkov/090522

[bsrsharma]

Time to legalize counterfeiting

Many Americans today believe certain illegal vices in our society should be decriminalized, taxed, and regulated. The most popular of these vices include marijuana smoking, prostitution, and all forms of gambling. The proponents for decriminalization believe that the new tax revenues produced would help support schools, healthcare, and the impoverished, ease the pain of taxpayers, and reduce the deficit. They also believe that transgressions such as these will take place no matter, but, if properly regulated, would be safer for society in general. It would be a win, win situation.

Unfortunately, when it comes to lowering taxes and helping the downtrodden, the best-laid government plans seem to fall short of expectations. However, there is one vice, one small illegal indiscretion, that, if decriminalized would solve all our problems. The United States needs to legalize the victimless crime known as counterfeiting….

http://www.renewamerica.us/columns/witkov/090522

[peterb]

Wouldnt be too quick to call this a recovery just yet. Another hard dive in the markets and the US$ will probably rise strongly. All currencies are abused at this point in time. If anything, I would think gold will emerge more strongly over the next few years. But world commerce still trades in US$. This will probably not change when fear and risk aversion re-enter the markets.

[peterb]

Wouldnt be too quick to call this a recovery just yet. Another hard dive in the markets and the US$ will probably rise strongly. All currencies are abused at this point in time. If anything, I would think gold will emerge more strongly over the next few years. But world commerce still trades in US$. This will probably not change when fear and risk aversion re-enter the markets.

[peterb]

Wouldnt be too quick to call this a recovery just yet. Another hard dive in the markets and the US$ will probably rise strongly. All currencies are abused at this point in time. If anything, I would think gold will emerge more strongly over the next few years. But world commerce still trades in US$. This will probably not change when fear and risk aversion re-enter the markets.

[peterb]

Wouldnt be too quick to call this a recovery just yet. Another hard dive in the markets and the US$ will probably rise strongly. All currencies are abused at this point in time. If anything, I would think gold will emerge more strongly over the next few years. But world commerce still trades in US$. This will probably not change when fear and risk aversion re-enter the markets.

[bsrsharma]

China Grows More Picky About Debt

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/21/business/global/21reserves.html?_r=1&hpw

“..China has been exchanging one dollar-denominated asset for another — selling the debt of government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a hurry to buy Treasuries. While this has been clear for months, new data shows that China is also trading long-term Treasuries for short-term notes, highlighting Beijing’s concerns that inflation will erode the dollar’s value in the long run as America amasses record debt.

So China’s rising purchases of Treasuries do not represent the confident bet on America’s future that they might seem to be on the surface. For instance, China does not appear to be dumping euros or yen to buy Treasuries,..”

[bsrsharma]

China Grows More Picky About Debt

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/21/business/global/21reserves.html?_r=1&hpw

“..China has been exchanging one dollar-denominated asset for another — selling the debt of government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a hurry to buy Treasuries. While this has been clear for months, new data shows that China is also trading long-term Treasuries for short-term notes, highlighting Beijing’s concerns that inflation will erode the dollar’s value in the long run as America amasses record debt.

So China’s rising purchases of Treasuries do not represent the confident bet on America’s future that they might seem to be on the surface. For instance, China does not appear to be dumping euros or yen to buy Treasuries,..”

[bsrsharma]

China Grows More Picky About Debt

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/21/business/global/21reserves.html?_r=1&hpw

“..China has been exchanging one dollar-denominated asset for another — selling the debt of government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a hurry to buy Treasuries. While this has been clear for months, new data shows that China is also trading long-term Treasuries for short-term notes, highlighting Beijing’s concerns that inflation will erode the dollar’s value in the long run as America amasses record debt.

So China’s rising purchases of Treasuries do not represent the confident bet on America’s future that they might seem to be on the surface. For instance, China does not appear to be dumping euros or yen to buy Treasuries,..”

[bsrsharma]

China Grows More Picky About Debt

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/21/business/global/21reserves.html?_r=1&hpw

“..China has been exchanging one dollar-denominated asset for another — selling the debt of government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a hurry to buy Treasuries. While this has been clear for months, new data shows that China is also trading long-term Treasuries for short-term notes, highlighting Beijing’s concerns that inflation will erode the dollar’s value in the long run as America amasses record debt.

So China’s rising purchases of Treasuries do not represent the confident bet on America’s future that they might seem to be on the surface. For instance, China does not appear to be dumping euros or yen to buy Treasuries,..”

[CA renter]

If the U.S. loses its AAA credit rating, it (technically) means the govt will have to pay higher rates in order to borrow (sell Treasuries). It means the U.S. has a higher risk of default than another country that is AAA-rated.

We’ve been hearing rumors about this for awhile, so nobody really knows if anything really comes to pass. We’ve pretty much convinced many other countries (most who matter) to do the same thing via quantitative and qualitative easing. There seems to be some resistance now to go further, but again, it remains to be seen what happens outside of the rhetoric.

Disclosure: long Swiss Treasuries (who are basically in the same boat)

[CA renter]

If the U.S. loses its AAA credit rating, it (technically) means the govt will have to pay higher rates in order to borrow (sell Treasuries). It means the U.S. has a higher risk of default than another country that is AAA-rated.

We’ve been hearing rumors about this for awhile, so nobody really knows if anything really comes to pass. We’ve pretty much convinced many other countries (most who matter) to do the same thing via quantitative and qualitative easing. There seems to be some resistance now to go further, but again, it remains to be seen what happens outside of the rhetoric.

Disclosure: long Swiss Treasuries (who are basically in the same boat)

[CA renter]

If the U.S. loses its AAA credit rating, it (technically) means the govt will have to pay higher rates in order to borrow (sell Treasuries). It means the U.S. has a higher risk of default than another country that is AAA-rated.

We’ve been hearing rumors about this for awhile, so nobody really knows if anything really comes to pass. We’ve pretty much convinced many other countries (most who matter) to do the same thing via quantitative and qualitative easing. There seems to be some resistance now to go further, but again, it remains to be seen what happens outside of the rhetoric.

Disclosure: long Swiss Treasuries (who are basically in the same boat)

[CA renter]

If the U.S. loses its AAA credit rating, it (technically) means the govt will have to pay higher rates in order to borrow (sell Treasuries). It means the U.S. has a higher risk of default than another country that is AAA-rated.

We’ve been hearing rumors about this for awhile, so nobody really knows if anything really comes to pass. We’ve pretty much convinced many other countries (most who matter) to do the same thing via quantitative and qualitative easing. There seems to be some resistance now to go further, but again, it remains to be seen what happens outside of the rhetoric.

Disclosure: long Swiss Treasuries (who are basically in the same boat)

[nostradamus]

Hijack! LoL Bladerunner and Mad Max 2 are in my top-ten all-time favorite films… I guess I say “bring it!” Mad Max 2 has the best narrative voice-over of all movies IMO… It’s so reminiscent of OUR time it makes me tingle!

Carry on with:

[patientrenter]

nostradamus, I have only ever bought 2 movies for viewing at home – one is Bladerunner.

The truth is that these movies, even one set in the future like Bladerunner, do age. We become used to better and better techniques in special effects, acting, camera work, sound, storywriting… and eventually even our old favorites start to pale a little. But Bladerunner was a great movie, and is still very good.

By the way, the other movie I bought was Life of Brian. I loved it when it first came out, when I was in college. I didn’t see it again until I bought it some time in the last 10 years, and couldn’t believe that the funniest movie I’d ever seen was now flat and a little puerile. I still like a few scenes though, like that one where the (Jewish) Palestinian terrorists get together to discuss what actions to take to protest their oppression at the hands of the (Roman) rulers of Jerusalem, and someone asks “What have the Romans ever done for us?”.

[nostradamus]

LOL. I’ve bought something like 400 movies (at least that’s how many I still have in my collection, they tend to “walk away”) and Blade Runner (director’s cut) as well as all the Mad Max films are of course part of my collection. Blade Runner was based on the book Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Which is timeless… Hard to believe it was written in 1968. I am one who (like many) will almost always prefer the book to the movie.

Another potential-future movie I love is A Clockwork Orange. The movie is dated but the book just blows it away… I do see the self-entitled people of today turning into ultra-violent Alexes!

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=nostradamus]LOL. I’ve bought something like 400 movies (at least that’s how many I still have in my collection, they tend to “walk away”) and Blade Runner (director’s cut) as well as all the Mad Max films are of course part of my collection. Blade Runner was based on the book Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Which is timeless… Hard to believe it was written in 1968. I am one who (like many) will almost always prefer the book to the movie.

Another potential-future movie I love is A Clockwork Orange. The movie is dated but the book just blows it away… I do see the self-entitled people of today turning into ultra-violent Alexes![/quote]

Nost: Philip K. Dick wrote the short story “Do Androids…”, as well as dozens of other stories and novels that have been turned into movies.

IMHO, one of the greatest sci-fi writers ever, and I say that as a fan of Asimov, Heinlein, Clarke, etc.

Interesting side note: He died in 1982 nearly right at the release of “Blade Runner” and absolutely hated the movie, saying that Ridley Scott had destroyed his vision of the tale. I wonder what he would have thought of the Director’s Cut, which is vastly superior to the theatrical release, for no other reason than it eliminated that annoying Harrison Ford narrative/voice over.

If you’re a fan of alternative history, read his novel, “The Man in the High Castle”, which is an alternative history of WWII (the Axis wins this time). Good stuff.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=nostradamus]LOL. I’ve bought something like 400 movies (at least that’s how many I still have in my collection, they tend to “walk away”) and Blade Runner (director’s cut) as well as all the Mad Max films are of course part of my collection. Blade Runner was based on the book Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Which is timeless… Hard to believe it was written in 1968. I am one who (like many) will almost always prefer the book to the movie.

Another potential-future movie I love is A Clockwork Orange. The movie is dated but the book just blows it away… I do see the self-entitled people of today turning into ultra-violent Alexes![/quote]

Nost: Philip K. Dick wrote the short story “Do Androids…”, as well as dozens of other stories and novels that have been turned into movies.

IMHO, one of the greatest sci-fi writers ever, and I say that as a fan of Asimov, Heinlein, Clarke, etc.

Interesting side note: He died in 1982 nearly right at the release of “Blade Runner” and absolutely hated the movie, saying that Ridley Scott had destroyed his vision of the tale. I wonder what he would have thought of the Director’s Cut, which is vastly superior to the theatrical release, for no other reason than it eliminated that annoying Harrison Ford narrative/voice over.

If you’re a fan of alternative history, read his novel, “The Man in the High Castle”, which is an alternative history of WWII (the Axis wins this time). Good stuff.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=nostradamus]LOL. I’ve bought something like 400 movies (at least that’s how many I still have in my collection, they tend to “walk away”) and Blade Runner (director’s cut) as well as all the Mad Max films are of course part of my collection. Blade Runner was based on the book Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Which is timeless… Hard to believe it was written in 1968. I am one who (like many) will almost always prefer the book to the movie.

Another potential-future movie I love is A Clockwork Orange. The movie is dated but the book just blows it away… I do see the self-entitled people of today turning into ultra-violent Alexes![/quote]

Nost: Philip K. Dick wrote the short story “Do Androids…”, as well as dozens of other stories and novels that have been turned into movies.

IMHO, one of the greatest sci-fi writers ever, and I say that as a fan of Asimov, Heinlein, Clarke, etc.

Interesting side note: He died in 1982 nearly right at the release of “Blade Runner” and absolutely hated the movie, saying that Ridley Scott had destroyed his vision of the tale. I wonder what he would have thought of the Director’s Cut, which is vastly superior to the theatrical release, for no other reason than it eliminated that annoying Harrison Ford narrative/voice over.

If you’re a fan of alternative history, read his novel, “The Man in the High Castle”, which is an alternative history of WWII (the Axis wins this time). Good stuff.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=nostradamus]LOL. I’ve bought something like 400 movies (at least that’s how many I still have in my collection, they tend to “walk away”) and Blade Runner (director’s cut) as well as all the Mad Max films are of course part of my collection. Blade Runner was based on the book Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Which is timeless… Hard to believe it was written in 1968. I am one who (like many) will almost always prefer the book to the movie.

Another potential-future movie I love is A Clockwork Orange. The movie is dated but the book just blows it away… I do see the self-entitled people of today turning into ultra-violent Alexes![/quote]

Nost: Philip K. Dick wrote the short story “Do Androids…”, as well as dozens of other stories and novels that have been turned into movies.

IMHO, one of the greatest sci-fi writers ever, and I say that as a fan of Asimov, Heinlein, Clarke, etc.

Interesting side note: He died in 1982 nearly right at the release of “Blade Runner” and absolutely hated the movie, saying that Ridley Scott had destroyed his vision of the tale. I wonder what he would have thought of the Director’s Cut, which is vastly superior to the theatrical release, for no other reason than it eliminated that annoying Harrison Ford narrative/voice over.

If you’re a fan of alternative history, read his novel, “The Man in the High Castle”, which is an alternative history of WWII (the Axis wins this time). Good stuff.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=nostradamus]LOL. I’ve bought something like 400 movies (at least that’s how many I still have in my collection, they tend to “walk away”) and Blade Runner (director’s cut) as well as all the Mad Max films are of course part of my collection. Blade Runner was based on the book Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Which is timeless… Hard to believe it was written in 1968. I am one who (like many) will almost always prefer the book to the movie.

Another potential-future movie I love is A Clockwork Orange. The movie is dated but the book just blows it away… I do see the self-entitled people of today turning into ultra-violent Alexes![/quote]

Nost: Philip K. Dick wrote the short story “Do Androids…”, as well as dozens of other stories and novels that have been turned into movies.

IMHO, one of the greatest sci-fi writers ever, and I say that as a fan of Asimov, Heinlein, Clarke, etc.

Interesting side note: He died in 1982 nearly right at the release of “Blade Runner” and absolutely hated the movie, saying that Ridley Scott had destroyed his vision of the tale. I wonder what he would have thought of the Director’s Cut, which is vastly superior to the theatrical release, for no other reason than it eliminated that annoying Harrison Ford narrative/voice over.

If you’re a fan of alternative history, read his novel, “The Man in the High Castle”, which is an alternative history of WWII (the Axis wins this time). Good stuff.

[nostradamus]

LOL. I’ve bought something like 400 movies (at least that’s how many I still have in my collection, they tend to “walk away”) and Blade Runner (director’s cut) as well as all the Mad Max films are of course part of my collection. Blade Runner was based on the book Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Which is timeless… Hard to believe it was written in 1968. I am one who (like many) will almost always prefer the book to the movie.

Another potential-future movie I love is A Clockwork Orange. The movie is dated but the book just blows it away… I do see the self-entitled people of today turning into ultra-violent Alexes!

[nostradamus]

LOL. I’ve bought something like 400 movies (at least that’s how many I still have in my collection, they tend to “walk away”) and Blade Runner (director’s cut) as well as all the Mad Max films are of course part of my collection. Blade Runner was based on the book Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Which is timeless… Hard to believe it was written in 1968. I am one who (like many) will almost always prefer the book to the movie.

Another potential-future movie I love is A Clockwork Orange. The movie is dated but the book just blows it away… I do see the self-entitled people of today turning into ultra-violent Alexes!

[nostradamus]

LOL. I’ve bought something like 400 movies (at least that’s how many I still have in my collection, they tend to “walk away”) and Blade Runner (director’s cut) as well as all the Mad Max films are of course part of my collection. Blade Runner was based on the book Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Which is timeless… Hard to believe it was written in 1968. I am one who (like many) will almost always prefer the book to the movie.

Another potential-future movie I love is A Clockwork Orange. The movie is dated but the book just blows it away… I do see the self-entitled people of today turning into ultra-violent Alexes!

[nostradamus]

LOL. I’ve bought something like 400 movies (at least that’s how many I still have in my collection, they tend to “walk away”) and Blade Runner (director’s cut) as well as all the Mad Max films are of course part of my collection. Blade Runner was based on the book Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Which is timeless… Hard to believe it was written in 1968. I am one who (like many) will almost always prefer the book to the movie.

Another potential-future movie I love is A Clockwork Orange. The movie is dated but the book just blows it away… I do see the self-entitled people of today turning into ultra-violent Alexes!

[patientrenter]

nostradamus, I have only ever bought 2 movies for viewing at home – one is Bladerunner.

The truth is that these movies, even one set in the future like Bladerunner, do age. We become used to better and better techniques in special effects, acting, camera work, sound, storywriting… and eventually even our old favorites start to pale a little. But Bladerunner was a great movie, and is still very good.

By the way, the other movie I bought was Life of Brian. I loved it when it first came out, when I was in college. I didn’t see it again until I bought it some time in the last 10 years, and couldn’t believe that the funniest movie I’d ever seen was now flat and a little puerile. I still like a few scenes though, like that one where the (Jewish) Palestinian terrorists get together to discuss what actions to take to protest their oppression at the hands of the (Roman) rulers of Jerusalem, and someone asks “What have the Romans ever done for us?”.

[patientrenter]

nostradamus, I have only ever bought 2 movies for viewing at home – one is Bladerunner.

The truth is that these movies, even one set in the future like Bladerunner, do age. We become used to better and better techniques in special effects, acting, camera work, sound, storywriting… and eventually even our old favorites start to pale a little. But Bladerunner was a great movie, and is still very good.

By the way, the other movie I bought was Life of Brian. I loved it when it first came out, when I was in college. I didn’t see it again until I bought it some time in the last 10 years, and couldn’t believe that the funniest movie I’d ever seen was now flat and a little puerile. I still like a few scenes though, like that one where the (Jewish) Palestinian terrorists get together to discuss what actions to take to protest their oppression at the hands of the (Roman) rulers of Jerusalem, and someone asks “What have the Romans ever done for us?”.

[patientrenter]

nostradamus, I have only ever bought 2 movies for viewing at home – one is Bladerunner.

The truth is that these movies, even one set in the future like Bladerunner, do age. We become used to better and better techniques in special effects, acting, camera work, sound, storywriting… and eventually even our old favorites start to pale a little. But Bladerunner was a great movie, and is still very good.

By the way, the other movie I bought was Life of Brian. I loved it when it first came out, when I was in college. I didn’t see it again until I bought it some time in the last 10 years, and couldn’t believe that the funniest movie I’d ever seen was now flat and a little puerile. I still like a few scenes though, like that one where the (Jewish) Palestinian terrorists get together to discuss what actions to take to protest their oppression at the hands of the (Roman) rulers of Jerusalem, and someone asks “What have the Romans ever done for us?”.

[patientrenter]

nostradamus, I have only ever bought 2 movies for viewing at home – one is Bladerunner.

The truth is that these movies, even one set in the future like Bladerunner, do age. We become used to better and better techniques in special effects, acting, camera work, sound, storywriting… and eventually even our old favorites start to pale a little. But Bladerunner was a great movie, and is still very good.

By the way, the other movie I bought was Life of Brian. I loved it when it first came out, when I was in college. I didn’t see it again until I bought it some time in the last 10 years, and couldn’t believe that the funniest movie I’d ever seen was now flat and a little puerile. I still like a few scenes though, like that one where the (Jewish) Palestinian terrorists get together to discuss what actions to take to protest their oppression at the hands of the (Roman) rulers of Jerusalem, and someone asks “What have the Romans ever done for us?”.

[nostradamus]

Hijack! LoL Bladerunner and Mad Max 2 are in my top-ten all-time favorite films… I guess I say “bring it!” Mad Max 2 has the best narrative voice-over of all movies IMO… It’s so reminiscent of OUR time it makes me tingle!

Carry on with:

[nostradamus]

Hijack! LoL Bladerunner and Mad Max 2 are in my top-ten all-time favorite films… I guess I say “bring it!” Mad Max 2 has the best narrative voice-over of all movies IMO… It’s so reminiscent of OUR time it makes me tingle!

Carry on with:

[nostradamus]

Hijack! LoL Bladerunner and Mad Max 2 are in my top-ten all-time favorite films… I guess I say “bring it!” Mad Max 2 has the best narrative voice-over of all movies IMO… It’s so reminiscent of OUR time it makes me tingle!

Carry on with:

[nostradamus]

Hijack! LoL Bladerunner and Mad Max 2 are in my top-ten all-time favorite films… I guess I say “bring it!” Mad Max 2 has the best narrative voice-over of all movies IMO… It’s so reminiscent of OUR time it makes me tingle!

Carry on with:

[Coronita]

[quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt

[Arraya]

This does not help.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/2009-05-26-irs-tax-revenue-down_N.htm
Federal tax revenue plunged $138 billion, or 34%, in April vs. a year ago — the biggest April drop since 1981, a study released Tuesday by the American Institute for Economic Research says.
When the economy slumps, so does tax revenue, and this recession has been no different, says Kerry Lynch, senior fellow at the AIER and author of the study. “It illustrates how severe the recession has been.”

For example, 6 million people lost jobs in the 12 months ended in April — and that means far fewer dollars from income taxes. Income tax revenue dropped 44% from a year ago.

“These are staggering numbers,” Lynch says.

Big revenue losses mean that the U.S. budget deficit may be larger than predicted this year and in future years.

[Arraya]

This does not help.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/2009-05-26-irs-tax-revenue-down_N.htm
Federal tax revenue plunged $138 billion, or 34%, in April vs. a year ago — the biggest April drop since 1981, a study released Tuesday by the American Institute for Economic Research says.
When the economy slumps, so does tax revenue, and this recession has been no different, says Kerry Lynch, senior fellow at the AIER and author of the study. “It illustrates how severe the recession has been.”

For example, 6 million people lost jobs in the 12 months ended in April — and that means far fewer dollars from income taxes. Income tax revenue dropped 44% from a year ago.

“These are staggering numbers,” Lynch says.

Big revenue losses mean that the U.S. budget deficit may be larger than predicted this year and in future years.

[Arraya]

This does not help.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/2009-05-26-irs-tax-revenue-down_N.htm
Federal tax revenue plunged $138 billion, or 34%, in April vs. a year ago — the biggest April drop since 1981, a study released Tuesday by the American Institute for Economic Research says.
When the economy slumps, so does tax revenue, and this recession has been no different, says Kerry Lynch, senior fellow at the AIER and author of the study. “It illustrates how severe the recession has been.”

For example, 6 million people lost jobs in the 12 months ended in April — and that means far fewer dollars from income taxes. Income tax revenue dropped 44% from a year ago.

“These are staggering numbers,” Lynch says.

Big revenue losses mean that the U.S. budget deficit may be larger than predicted this year and in future years.

[Arraya]

This does not help.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/2009-05-26-irs-tax-revenue-down_N.htm
Federal tax revenue plunged $138 billion, or 34%, in April vs. a year ago — the biggest April drop since 1981, a study released Tuesday by the American Institute for Economic Research says.
When the economy slumps, so does tax revenue, and this recession has been no different, says Kerry Lynch, senior fellow at the AIER and author of the study. “It illustrates how severe the recession has been.”

For example, 6 million people lost jobs in the 12 months ended in April — and that means far fewer dollars from income taxes. Income tax revenue dropped 44% from a year ago.

“These are staggering numbers,” Lynch says.

Big revenue losses mean that the U.S. budget deficit may be larger than predicted this year and in future years.

[Arraya]

This does not help.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/2009-05-26-irs-tax-revenue-down_N.htm
Federal tax revenue plunged $138 billion, or 34%, in April vs. a year ago — the biggest April drop since 1981, a study released Tuesday by the American Institute for Economic Research says.
When the economy slumps, so does tax revenue, and this recession has been no different, says Kerry Lynch, senior fellow at the AIER and author of the study. “It illustrates how severe the recession has been.”

For example, 6 million people lost jobs in the 12 months ended in April — and that means far fewer dollars from income taxes. Income tax revenue dropped 44% from a year ago.

“These are staggering numbers,” Lynch says.

Big revenue losses mean that the U.S. budget deficit may be larger than predicted this year and in future years.

[partypup]

[quote=flu][quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt [/quote]

Well, apparently investors aren’t buying it:

“New Investor Worry: Treasury Selloff Spiking Interest Rates”

But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861

[Coronita]

[quote=partypup][quote=flu][quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt [/quote]

Well, apparently investors aren’t buying it:

“New Investor Worry: Treasury Selloff Spiking Interest Rates”

But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

I prefer when you talk about guns and ammo frankly 🙂

I hear California is for sale and that Governator has a list foreign soveriegnties that made it onto the short list of buyers 🙂

Anyone interested in pooling together money to purchase the LA Coliseum and the Del Mar Fairgrounds?

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2009/May/15/Sale-of-Del-Mar-Fairgrounds-proposed.aspx

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/sports/football/usc/LA-Coliseum-For-Sale-in-Revised-Budget-Plan-Report.html

How does “Piggington Fairgrounds” or “Piggington Coliseum” sound?

[patientrenter]

Allan, yes, Philip K Dick is one of the better sci-fi writers. Actually, I don’t like most sci-fi, but I enjoyed most of his books when I first read them as a teenager, including the Man in the High Castle. I recommend it for all those who take our existing world for granted. When I first read it, I became mentally “high” on the upside-down world he created.

I honestly don’t know how I’d react to his books today. Part of what he did for me is stretch my narrow mind a little. Now that I’m older, and have seen the fall of the Iron Curtain, and the change and rise of China, I don’t know that I’d find his grand gedankenexperiment such a stretch. Or maybe I am too old to imagine along with him. But I definitely recommend him to younger readers who can appreciate fully his imagination for alternative worlds.

[patientrenter]

Allan, yes, Philip K Dick is one of the better sci-fi writers. Actually, I don’t like most sci-fi, but I enjoyed most of his books when I first read them as a teenager, including the Man in the High Castle. I recommend it for all those who take our existing world for granted. When I first read it, I became mentally “high” on the upside-down world he created.

I honestly don’t know how I’d react to his books today. Part of what he did for me is stretch my narrow mind a little. Now that I’m older, and have seen the fall of the Iron Curtain, and the change and rise of China, I don’t know that I’d find his grand gedankenexperiment such a stretch. Or maybe I am too old to imagine along with him. But I definitely recommend him to younger readers who can appreciate fully his imagination for alternative worlds.

[patientrenter]

Allan, yes, Philip K Dick is one of the better sci-fi writers. Actually, I don’t like most sci-fi, but I enjoyed most of his books when I first read them as a teenager, including the Man in the High Castle. I recommend it for all those who take our existing world for granted. When I first read it, I became mentally “high” on the upside-down world he created.

I honestly don’t know how I’d react to his books today. Part of what he did for me is stretch my narrow mind a little. Now that I’m older, and have seen the fall of the Iron Curtain, and the change and rise of China, I don’t know that I’d find his grand gedankenexperiment such a stretch. Or maybe I am too old to imagine along with him. But I definitely recommend him to younger readers who can appreciate fully his imagination for alternative worlds.

[patientrenter]

Allan, yes, Philip K Dick is one of the better sci-fi writers. Actually, I don’t like most sci-fi, but I enjoyed most of his books when I first read them as a teenager, including the Man in the High Castle. I recommend it for all those who take our existing world for granted. When I first read it, I became mentally “high” on the upside-down world he created.

I honestly don’t know how I’d react to his books today. Part of what he did for me is stretch my narrow mind a little. Now that I’m older, and have seen the fall of the Iron Curtain, and the change and rise of China, I don’t know that I’d find his grand gedankenexperiment such a stretch. Or maybe I am too old to imagine along with him. But I definitely recommend him to younger readers who can appreciate fully his imagination for alternative worlds.

[patientrenter]

Allan, yes, Philip K Dick is one of the better sci-fi writers. Actually, I don’t like most sci-fi, but I enjoyed most of his books when I first read them as a teenager, including the Man in the High Castle. I recommend it for all those who take our existing world for granted. When I first read it, I became mentally “high” on the upside-down world he created.

I honestly don’t know how I’d react to his books today. Part of what he did for me is stretch my narrow mind a little. Now that I’m older, and have seen the fall of the Iron Curtain, and the change and rise of China, I don’t know that I’d find his grand gedankenexperiment such a stretch. Or maybe I am too old to imagine along with him. But I definitely recommend him to younger readers who can appreciate fully his imagination for alternative worlds.

[Coronita]

[quote=partypup][quote=flu][quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt [/quote]

Well, apparently investors aren’t buying it:

“New Investor Worry: Treasury Selloff Spiking Interest Rates”

But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

I prefer when you talk about guns and ammo frankly 🙂

I hear California is for sale and that Governator has a list foreign soveriegnties that made it onto the short list of buyers 🙂

Anyone interested in pooling together money to purchase the LA Coliseum and the Del Mar Fairgrounds?

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2009/May/15/Sale-of-Del-Mar-Fairgrounds-proposed.aspx

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/sports/football/usc/LA-Coliseum-For-Sale-in-Revised-Budget-Plan-Report.html

How does “Piggington Fairgrounds” or “Piggington Coliseum” sound?

[Coronita]

[quote=partypup][quote=flu][quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt [/quote]

Well, apparently investors aren’t buying it:

“New Investor Worry: Treasury Selloff Spiking Interest Rates”

But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

I prefer when you talk about guns and ammo frankly 🙂

I hear California is for sale and that Governator has a list foreign soveriegnties that made it onto the short list of buyers 🙂

Anyone interested in pooling together money to purchase the LA Coliseum and the Del Mar Fairgrounds?

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2009/May/15/Sale-of-Del-Mar-Fairgrounds-proposed.aspx

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/sports/football/usc/LA-Coliseum-For-Sale-in-Revised-Budget-Plan-Report.html

How does “Piggington Fairgrounds” or “Piggington Coliseum” sound?

[Coronita]

[quote=partypup][quote=flu][quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt [/quote]

Well, apparently investors aren’t buying it:

“New Investor Worry: Treasury Selloff Spiking Interest Rates”

But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

I prefer when you talk about guns and ammo frankly 🙂

I hear California is for sale and that Governator has a list foreign soveriegnties that made it onto the short list of buyers 🙂

Anyone interested in pooling together money to purchase the LA Coliseum and the Del Mar Fairgrounds?

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2009/May/15/Sale-of-Del-Mar-Fairgrounds-proposed.aspx

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/sports/football/usc/LA-Coliseum-For-Sale-in-Revised-Budget-Plan-Report.html

How does “Piggington Fairgrounds” or “Piggington Coliseum” sound?

[Coronita]

[quote=partypup][quote=flu][quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt [/quote]

Well, apparently investors aren’t buying it:

“New Investor Worry: Treasury Selloff Spiking Interest Rates”

But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

I prefer when you talk about guns and ammo frankly 🙂

I hear California is for sale and that Governator has a list foreign soveriegnties that made it onto the short list of buyers 🙂

Anyone interested in pooling together money to purchase the LA Coliseum and the Del Mar Fairgrounds?

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2009/May/15/Sale-of-Del-Mar-Fairgrounds-proposed.aspx

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/sports/football/usc/LA-Coliseum-For-Sale-in-Revised-Budget-Plan-Report.html

How does “Piggington Fairgrounds” or “Piggington Coliseum” sound?

[patientrenter]

[quote=partypup]
But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

So partypup, put some facts with those taunts. Can you describe the limit that you think Bernanke will hit that will stop him from buying more Treasuries?

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter][quote=partypup]
But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

So partypup, put some facts with those taunts. Can you describe the limit that you think Bernanke will hit that will stop him from buying more Treasuries?[/quote]

LOL. I wish I could, PR, but my predictive abilities only extend so far 😉 I have no idea what the tipping point will be (although I suspect we moved significantly closer to the edge this week). What I will say is this: I sincerely and strongly believe that we are going to experience an ugly and rapid unwinding of the dollar by the end of the year, in all likelihood starting this Fall when the U.S. fiscal year ends and we face the prospect of funding a budget that will by that point be, literally, un-fundable. I have been sensing this for the past few months now. The ONLY thing standing in the way of a currency crisis right now is the Chinese. At this point Bernanke, Obama and the other clowns seem to be thinking/hoping that we have China over a barrel because they have more to lose than we do by bailing out of greenbacks.

They’re wrong.

I feel so strongly about the dollar’s imminent demise that I am willing to make you a wager: within the next twelve (12) months the dollar will lose its reserve currency status. And I think we all know what happens after that. Are you so confident in the dollar’s future that you will put a little skin in the game…? 😉

“No one knows for sure when the tide started to turn, or the exact moment when American gold started its slow but seemingly irreversible loss of luster,” Victor Zhikai Gao, a former interpreter for Deng Xiaoping, said. But now, “[m]any Chinese people increasingly fear the rapid erosion of the American dollar.”

Many shops no longer accept dollar-based credit cards, and there are quotas on how many dollars can be converted to renminbi. Those who still keep large amounts of U.S. dollars are those who need it to send their children to U.S. schools, or to travel in other countries that still use U.S. dollars.

For the most part, Chinese multinational corporations still happily accept U.S. dollars as a form of payment—but Mei jin is on its way to becoming a derisive anti-American joke, even a dirty word. China’s appetite for holding dollars is turning into revulsion.

But China isn’t the only Asian country to show public disdain for the U.S. dollar.

Ii eh, domo. That is essentially what the chief finance spokesman of Japan’s opposition said concerning the U.S. dollar on April 12. Ii eh, domo means “no thanks”—as in, dollar-denominated U.S. treasuries? No thanks. Masaharu Nakagawa told the bbc that he was worried about the future value of the dollar, and that if his party were elected in the upcoming national elections it would refuse to purchase any more U.S. treasuries unless they were denominated in Japanese yen.

“If it’s [in] yen, it’s going to be all right,” Mr. Nakagawa said. “We propose that we would buy [the U.S. bonds], but it’s yen, not dollar.

As a U.S. ally, Washington officials don’t often talk about Japan being stuck in a dollar trap. But this recent announcement illustrates the clear weakening of U.S.-Tokyo relations.

“We have come to assume that Japan under the Liberal Democratic Party (ldp) will always cleave to America, if only to safeguard U.S. protection against Chinese naval expansion,” writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph. “But crashes have a habit of bringing regime change.”

Brian Reading, a Japan specialist at Lombard Street Research, says Japan may experience a “seismic shock,” as voters revolt. Will Japan soon have new leadership that is less accommodating to Washington? Even America’s strongest allies are questioning the wisdom of lending money to a nation that has so much debt.

According to a recent unconfirmed report, Germany may be in the dollar skeptic camp too. Economic Analyst Jim Willie quotes an unnamed source saying that the Germans have demanded the “return all their gold bullion held in custodial accounts on U.S. soil.” Dubai has recently sent the same request to London (which is also facing a currency crisis). According to Willie, Germany is acting as a “hidden archenemy” toward the U.S. and UK “on all matters pertaining to gold bullion.” He says Germany is also acting as an adviser to the Chinese on currency and gold issues.

When America’s allies, let alone its enemies, publicly question the viability of the dollar, we can know that things behind the scenes are even worse.

“We’re going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall or the fall of 2010,” said famed commodities investor Jim Rogers on May 12. “It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally in the dollar, so it’s time for a currency crisis.”

The dollar is in big trouble.”

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=6205.4626.0.0

[CA renter]

A couple of Chinese friends recently told me about the change in their own families’ stance on the dollar.

When they used to go back home, their friends and family members would have them bring dollars so they could exchange their yuan. Now, they don’t want anything to do with the dollar.

Also, I had to transfer money to Europe for an estate settlement in 2007. The dollar was at a low point at the time, and I asked if they wanted to see if the dollar would appreciate a bit first. They laughed and said they didn’t think the dollar was going anywhere but down (it did appreciate in the meantime, BTW).

Still, if the “Average Joes” in other countries are shunning the dollar, one can only wonder what the higher-ups are thinking.

[CA renter]

A couple of Chinese friends recently told me about the change in their own families’ stance on the dollar.

When they used to go back home, their friends and family members would have them bring dollars so they could exchange their yuan. Now, they don’t want anything to do with the dollar.

Also, I had to transfer money to Europe for an estate settlement in 2007. The dollar was at a low point at the time, and I asked if they wanted to see if the dollar would appreciate a bit first. They laughed and said they didn’t think the dollar was going anywhere but down (it did appreciate in the meantime, BTW).

Still, if the “Average Joes” in other countries are shunning the dollar, one can only wonder what the higher-ups are thinking.

[CA renter]

A couple of Chinese friends recently told me about the change in their own families’ stance on the dollar.

When they used to go back home, their friends and family members would have them bring dollars so they could exchange their yuan. Now, they don’t want anything to do with the dollar.

Also, I had to transfer money to Europe for an estate settlement in 2007. The dollar was at a low point at the time, and I asked if they wanted to see if the dollar would appreciate a bit first. They laughed and said they didn’t think the dollar was going anywhere but down (it did appreciate in the meantime, BTW).

Still, if the “Average Joes” in other countries are shunning the dollar, one can only wonder what the higher-ups are thinking.

[CA renter]

A couple of Chinese friends recently told me about the change in their own families’ stance on the dollar.

When they used to go back home, their friends and family members would have them bring dollars so they could exchange their yuan. Now, they don’t want anything to do with the dollar.

Also, I had to transfer money to Europe for an estate settlement in 2007. The dollar was at a low point at the time, and I asked if they wanted to see if the dollar would appreciate a bit first. They laughed and said they didn’t think the dollar was going anywhere but down (it did appreciate in the meantime, BTW).

Still, if the “Average Joes” in other countries are shunning the dollar, one can only wonder what the higher-ups are thinking.

[CA renter]

A couple of Chinese friends recently told me about the change in their own families’ stance on the dollar.

When they used to go back home, their friends and family members would have them bring dollars so they could exchange their yuan. Now, they don’t want anything to do with the dollar.

Also, I had to transfer money to Europe for an estate settlement in 2007. The dollar was at a low point at the time, and I asked if they wanted to see if the dollar would appreciate a bit first. They laughed and said they didn’t think the dollar was going anywhere but down (it did appreciate in the meantime, BTW).

Still, if the “Average Joes” in other countries are shunning the dollar, one can only wonder what the higher-ups are thinking.

[patientrenter]

I don’t know if you’ve followed my occasional posts over the last 2 years, partypup, but I have long advised readers to prepare for appreciation of the yen versus the dollar. I’ve made a good amount of money on that bet.

That won’t prevent the Federal Reserve from buying Treasuries. In fact, it will encourage the Fed to buy more, since the demand for Treasuries coming from foreign CBs is declining, while the US govt deficit is high and increasing.

Pressures are pushing domestic interest rates up, and the value of the dollar against foreign currencies down. Our government can influence how much of each occurs. It is clear that our government is committed to cheap money, so they will keep interest rates low by having the Fed buy lots of Treasuries and other assets, if necessary. That will leave the dollar open to depreciation against other currencies.

Will the dollar “collapse” and become “worthless”? Of course not. It may lose 10% of its value, or 20%, or 30%, or even 40%, over time. But it won’t become worthless, and it won’t lose enormous amounts of value overnight. And a reserve currency is not unique. It is only natural that other currencies will be used more than they are now as a reserve of value. Already the euro, and even the GBP, are reserve currencies. As the world becomes more diversified and dispersed and complex, we should expect that more and more currencies will be used as a store of value. But we’re not all going to wake up in 12 months and find everyone refuses to accept any dollars as payment for anything. That’s just exaggeration.

[patientrenter]

I don’t know if you’ve followed my occasional posts over the last 2 years, partypup, but I have long advised readers to prepare for appreciation of the yen versus the dollar. I’ve made a good amount of money on that bet.

That won’t prevent the Federal Reserve from buying Treasuries. In fact, it will encourage the Fed to buy more, since the demand for Treasuries coming from foreign CBs is declining, while the US govt deficit is high and increasing.

Pressures are pushing domestic interest rates up, and the value of the dollar against foreign currencies down. Our government can influence how much of each occurs. It is clear that our government is committed to cheap money, so they will keep interest rates low by having the Fed buy lots of Treasuries and other assets, if necessary. That will leave the dollar open to depreciation against other currencies.

Will the dollar “collapse” and become “worthless”? Of course not. It may lose 10% of its value, or 20%, or 30%, or even 40%, over time. But it won’t become worthless, and it won’t lose enormous amounts of value overnight. And a reserve currency is not unique. It is only natural that other currencies will be used more than they are now as a reserve of value. Already the euro, and even the GBP, are reserve currencies. As the world becomes more diversified and dispersed and complex, we should expect that more and more currencies will be used as a store of value. But we’re not all going to wake up in 12 months and find everyone refuses to accept any dollars as payment for anything. That’s just exaggeration.

[patientrenter]

I don’t know if you’ve followed my occasional posts over the last 2 years, partypup, but I have long advised readers to prepare for appreciation of the yen versus the dollar. I’ve made a good amount of money on that bet.

That won’t prevent the Federal Reserve from buying Treasuries. In fact, it will encourage the Fed to buy more, since the demand for Treasuries coming from foreign CBs is declining, while the US govt deficit is high and increasing.

Pressures are pushing domestic interest rates up, and the value of the dollar against foreign currencies down. Our government can influence how much of each occurs. It is clear that our government is committed to cheap money, so they will keep interest rates low by having the Fed buy lots of Treasuries and other assets, if necessary. That will leave the dollar open to depreciation against other currencies.

Will the dollar “collapse” and become “worthless”? Of course not. It may lose 10% of its value, or 20%, or 30%, or even 40%, over time. But it won’t become worthless, and it won’t lose enormous amounts of value overnight. And a reserve currency is not unique. It is only natural that other currencies will be used more than they are now as a reserve of value. Already the euro, and even the GBP, are reserve currencies. As the world becomes more diversified and dispersed and complex, we should expect that more and more currencies will be used as a store of value. But we’re not all going to wake up in 12 months and find everyone refuses to accept any dollars as payment for anything. That’s just exaggeration.

[patientrenter]

I don’t know if you’ve followed my occasional posts over the last 2 years, partypup, but I have long advised readers to prepare for appreciation of the yen versus the dollar. I’ve made a good amount of money on that bet.

That won’t prevent the Federal Reserve from buying Treasuries. In fact, it will encourage the Fed to buy more, since the demand for Treasuries coming from foreign CBs is declining, while the US govt deficit is high and increasing.

Pressures are pushing domestic interest rates up, and the value of the dollar against foreign currencies down. Our government can influence how much of each occurs. It is clear that our government is committed to cheap money, so they will keep interest rates low by having the Fed buy lots of Treasuries and other assets, if necessary. That will leave the dollar open to depreciation against other currencies.

Will the dollar “collapse” and become “worthless”? Of course not. It may lose 10% of its value, or 20%, or 30%, or even 40%, over time. But it won’t become worthless, and it won’t lose enormous amounts of value overnight. And a reserve currency is not unique. It is only natural that other currencies will be used more than they are now as a reserve of value. Already the euro, and even the GBP, are reserve currencies. As the world becomes more diversified and dispersed and complex, we should expect that more and more currencies will be used as a store of value. But we’re not all going to wake up in 12 months and find everyone refuses to accept any dollars as payment for anything. That’s just exaggeration.

[patientrenter]

I don’t know if you’ve followed my occasional posts over the last 2 years, partypup, but I have long advised readers to prepare for appreciation of the yen versus the dollar. I’ve made a good amount of money on that bet.

That won’t prevent the Federal Reserve from buying Treasuries. In fact, it will encourage the Fed to buy more, since the demand for Treasuries coming from foreign CBs is declining, while the US govt deficit is high and increasing.

Pressures are pushing domestic interest rates up, and the value of the dollar against foreign currencies down. Our government can influence how much of each occurs. It is clear that our government is committed to cheap money, so they will keep interest rates low by having the Fed buy lots of Treasuries and other assets, if necessary. That will leave the dollar open to depreciation against other currencies.

Will the dollar “collapse” and become “worthless”? Of course not. It may lose 10% of its value, or 20%, or 30%, or even 40%, over time. But it won’t become worthless, and it won’t lose enormous amounts of value overnight. And a reserve currency is not unique. It is only natural that other currencies will be used more than they are now as a reserve of value. Already the euro, and even the GBP, are reserve currencies. As the world becomes more diversified and dispersed and complex, we should expect that more and more currencies will be used as a store of value. But we’re not all going to wake up in 12 months and find everyone refuses to accept any dollars as payment for anything. That’s just exaggeration.

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter][quote=partypup]
But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

So partypup, put some facts with those taunts. Can you describe the limit that you think Bernanke will hit that will stop him from buying more Treasuries?[/quote]

LOL. I wish I could, PR, but my predictive abilities only extend so far 😉 I have no idea what the tipping point will be (although I suspect we moved significantly closer to the edge this week). What I will say is this: I sincerely and strongly believe that we are going to experience an ugly and rapid unwinding of the dollar by the end of the year, in all likelihood starting this Fall when the U.S. fiscal year ends and we face the prospect of funding a budget that will by that point be, literally, un-fundable. I have been sensing this for the past few months now. The ONLY thing standing in the way of a currency crisis right now is the Chinese. At this point Bernanke, Obama and the other clowns seem to be thinking/hoping that we have China over a barrel because they have more to lose than we do by bailing out of greenbacks.

They’re wrong.

I feel so strongly about the dollar’s imminent demise that I am willing to make you a wager: within the next twelve (12) months the dollar will lose its reserve currency status. And I think we all know what happens after that. Are you so confident in the dollar’s future that you will put a little skin in the game…? 😉

“No one knows for sure when the tide started to turn, or the exact moment when American gold started its slow but seemingly irreversible loss of luster,” Victor Zhikai Gao, a former interpreter for Deng Xiaoping, said. But now, “[m]any Chinese people increasingly fear the rapid erosion of the American dollar.”

Many shops no longer accept dollar-based credit cards, and there are quotas on how many dollars can be converted to renminbi. Those who still keep large amounts of U.S. dollars are those who need it to send their children to U.S. schools, or to travel in other countries that still use U.S. dollars.

For the most part, Chinese multinational corporations still happily accept U.S. dollars as a form of payment—but Mei jin is on its way to becoming a derisive anti-American joke, even a dirty word. China’s appetite for holding dollars is turning into revulsion.

But China isn’t the only Asian country to show public disdain for the U.S. dollar.

Ii eh, domo. That is essentially what the chief finance spokesman of Japan’s opposition said concerning the U.S. dollar on April 12. Ii eh, domo means “no thanks”—as in, dollar-denominated U.S. treasuries? No thanks. Masaharu Nakagawa told the bbc that he was worried about the future value of the dollar, and that if his party were elected in the upcoming national elections it would refuse to purchase any more U.S. treasuries unless they were denominated in Japanese yen.

“If it’s [in] yen, it’s going to be all right,” Mr. Nakagawa said. “We propose that we would buy [the U.S. bonds], but it’s yen, not dollar.

As a U.S. ally, Washington officials don’t often talk about Japan being stuck in a dollar trap. But this recent announcement illustrates the clear weakening of U.S.-Tokyo relations.

“We have come to assume that Japan under the Liberal Democratic Party (ldp) will always cleave to America, if only to safeguard U.S. protection against Chinese naval expansion,” writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph. “But crashes have a habit of bringing regime change.”

Brian Reading, a Japan specialist at Lombard Street Research, says Japan may experience a “seismic shock,” as voters revolt. Will Japan soon have new leadership that is less accommodating to Washington? Even America’s strongest allies are questioning the wisdom of lending money to a nation that has so much debt.

According to a recent unconfirmed report, Germany may be in the dollar skeptic camp too. Economic Analyst Jim Willie quotes an unnamed source saying that the Germans have demanded the “return all their gold bullion held in custodial accounts on U.S. soil.” Dubai has recently sent the same request to London (which is also facing a currency crisis). According to Willie, Germany is acting as a “hidden archenemy” toward the U.S. and UK “on all matters pertaining to gold bullion.” He says Germany is also acting as an adviser to the Chinese on currency and gold issues.

When America’s allies, let alone its enemies, publicly question the viability of the dollar, we can know that things behind the scenes are even worse.

“We’re going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall or the fall of 2010,” said famed commodities investor Jim Rogers on May 12. “It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally in the dollar, so it’s time for a currency crisis.”

The dollar is in big trouble.”

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=6205.4626.0.0

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter][quote=partypup]
But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

So partypup, put some facts with those taunts. Can you describe the limit that you think Bernanke will hit that will stop him from buying more Treasuries?[/quote]

LOL. I wish I could, PR, but my predictive abilities only extend so far 😉 I have no idea what the tipping point will be (although I suspect we moved significantly closer to the edge this week). What I will say is this: I sincerely and strongly believe that we are going to experience an ugly and rapid unwinding of the dollar by the end of the year, in all likelihood starting this Fall when the U.S. fiscal year ends and we face the prospect of funding a budget that will by that point be, literally, un-fundable. I have been sensing this for the past few months now. The ONLY thing standing in the way of a currency crisis right now is the Chinese. At this point Bernanke, Obama and the other clowns seem to be thinking/hoping that we have China over a barrel because they have more to lose than we do by bailing out of greenbacks.

They’re wrong.

I feel so strongly about the dollar’s imminent demise that I am willing to make you a wager: within the next twelve (12) months the dollar will lose its reserve currency status. And I think we all know what happens after that. Are you so confident in the dollar’s future that you will put a little skin in the game…? 😉

“No one knows for sure when the tide started to turn, or the exact moment when American gold started its slow but seemingly irreversible loss of luster,” Victor Zhikai Gao, a former interpreter for Deng Xiaoping, said. But now, “[m]any Chinese people increasingly fear the rapid erosion of the American dollar.”

Many shops no longer accept dollar-based credit cards, and there are quotas on how many dollars can be converted to renminbi. Those who still keep large amounts of U.S. dollars are those who need it to send their children to U.S. schools, or to travel in other countries that still use U.S. dollars.

For the most part, Chinese multinational corporations still happily accept U.S. dollars as a form of payment—but Mei jin is on its way to becoming a derisive anti-American joke, even a dirty word. China’s appetite for holding dollars is turning into revulsion.

But China isn’t the only Asian country to show public disdain for the U.S. dollar.

Ii eh, domo. That is essentially what the chief finance spokesman of Japan’s opposition said concerning the U.S. dollar on April 12. Ii eh, domo means “no thanks”—as in, dollar-denominated U.S. treasuries? No thanks. Masaharu Nakagawa told the bbc that he was worried about the future value of the dollar, and that if his party were elected in the upcoming national elections it would refuse to purchase any more U.S. treasuries unless they were denominated in Japanese yen.

“If it’s [in] yen, it’s going to be all right,” Mr. Nakagawa said. “We propose that we would buy [the U.S. bonds], but it’s yen, not dollar.

As a U.S. ally, Washington officials don’t often talk about Japan being stuck in a dollar trap. But this recent announcement illustrates the clear weakening of U.S.-Tokyo relations.

“We have come to assume that Japan under the Liberal Democratic Party (ldp) will always cleave to America, if only to safeguard U.S. protection against Chinese naval expansion,” writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph. “But crashes have a habit of bringing regime change.”

Brian Reading, a Japan specialist at Lombard Street Research, says Japan may experience a “seismic shock,” as voters revolt. Will Japan soon have new leadership that is less accommodating to Washington? Even America’s strongest allies are questioning the wisdom of lending money to a nation that has so much debt.

According to a recent unconfirmed report, Germany may be in the dollar skeptic camp too. Economic Analyst Jim Willie quotes an unnamed source saying that the Germans have demanded the “return all their gold bullion held in custodial accounts on U.S. soil.” Dubai has recently sent the same request to London (which is also facing a currency crisis). According to Willie, Germany is acting as a “hidden archenemy” toward the U.S. and UK “on all matters pertaining to gold bullion.” He says Germany is also acting as an adviser to the Chinese on currency and gold issues.

When America’s allies, let alone its enemies, publicly question the viability of the dollar, we can know that things behind the scenes are even worse.

“We’re going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall or the fall of 2010,” said famed commodities investor Jim Rogers on May 12. “It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally in the dollar, so it’s time for a currency crisis.”

The dollar is in big trouble.”

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=6205.4626.0.0

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter][quote=partypup]
But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

So partypup, put some facts with those taunts. Can you describe the limit that you think Bernanke will hit that will stop him from buying more Treasuries?[/quote]

LOL. I wish I could, PR, but my predictive abilities only extend so far 😉 I have no idea what the tipping point will be (although I suspect we moved significantly closer to the edge this week). What I will say is this: I sincerely and strongly believe that we are going to experience an ugly and rapid unwinding of the dollar by the end of the year, in all likelihood starting this Fall when the U.S. fiscal year ends and we face the prospect of funding a budget that will by that point be, literally, un-fundable. I have been sensing this for the past few months now. The ONLY thing standing in the way of a currency crisis right now is the Chinese. At this point Bernanke, Obama and the other clowns seem to be thinking/hoping that we have China over a barrel because they have more to lose than we do by bailing out of greenbacks.

They’re wrong.

I feel so strongly about the dollar’s imminent demise that I am willing to make you a wager: within the next twelve (12) months the dollar will lose its reserve currency status. And I think we all know what happens after that. Are you so confident in the dollar’s future that you will put a little skin in the game…? 😉

“No one knows for sure when the tide started to turn, or the exact moment when American gold started its slow but seemingly irreversible loss of luster,” Victor Zhikai Gao, a former interpreter for Deng Xiaoping, said. But now, “[m]any Chinese people increasingly fear the rapid erosion of the American dollar.”

Many shops no longer accept dollar-based credit cards, and there are quotas on how many dollars can be converted to renminbi. Those who still keep large amounts of U.S. dollars are those who need it to send their children to U.S. schools, or to travel in other countries that still use U.S. dollars.

For the most part, Chinese multinational corporations still happily accept U.S. dollars as a form of payment—but Mei jin is on its way to becoming a derisive anti-American joke, even a dirty word. China’s appetite for holding dollars is turning into revulsion.

But China isn’t the only Asian country to show public disdain for the U.S. dollar.

Ii eh, domo. That is essentially what the chief finance spokesman of Japan’s opposition said concerning the U.S. dollar on April 12. Ii eh, domo means “no thanks”—as in, dollar-denominated U.S. treasuries? No thanks. Masaharu Nakagawa told the bbc that he was worried about the future value of the dollar, and that if his party were elected in the upcoming national elections it would refuse to purchase any more U.S. treasuries unless they were denominated in Japanese yen.

“If it’s [in] yen, it’s going to be all right,” Mr. Nakagawa said. “We propose that we would buy [the U.S. bonds], but it’s yen, not dollar.

As a U.S. ally, Washington officials don’t often talk about Japan being stuck in a dollar trap. But this recent announcement illustrates the clear weakening of U.S.-Tokyo relations.

“We have come to assume that Japan under the Liberal Democratic Party (ldp) will always cleave to America, if only to safeguard U.S. protection against Chinese naval expansion,” writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph. “But crashes have a habit of bringing regime change.”

Brian Reading, a Japan specialist at Lombard Street Research, says Japan may experience a “seismic shock,” as voters revolt. Will Japan soon have new leadership that is less accommodating to Washington? Even America’s strongest allies are questioning the wisdom of lending money to a nation that has so much debt.

According to a recent unconfirmed report, Germany may be in the dollar skeptic camp too. Economic Analyst Jim Willie quotes an unnamed source saying that the Germans have demanded the “return all their gold bullion held in custodial accounts on U.S. soil.” Dubai has recently sent the same request to London (which is also facing a currency crisis). According to Willie, Germany is acting as a “hidden archenemy” toward the U.S. and UK “on all matters pertaining to gold bullion.” He says Germany is also acting as an adviser to the Chinese on currency and gold issues.

When America’s allies, let alone its enemies, publicly question the viability of the dollar, we can know that things behind the scenes are even worse.

“We’re going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall or the fall of 2010,” said famed commodities investor Jim Rogers on May 12. “It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally in the dollar, so it’s time for a currency crisis.”

The dollar is in big trouble.”

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=6205.4626.0.0

[partypup]

[quote=patientrenter][quote=partypup]
But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

So partypup, put some facts with those taunts. Can you describe the limit that you think Bernanke will hit that will stop him from buying more Treasuries?[/quote]

LOL. I wish I could, PR, but my predictive abilities only extend so far 😉 I have no idea what the tipping point will be (although I suspect we moved significantly closer to the edge this week). What I will say is this: I sincerely and strongly believe that we are going to experience an ugly and rapid unwinding of the dollar by the end of the year, in all likelihood starting this Fall when the U.S. fiscal year ends and we face the prospect of funding a budget that will by that point be, literally, un-fundable. I have been sensing this for the past few months now. The ONLY thing standing in the way of a currency crisis right now is the Chinese. At this point Bernanke, Obama and the other clowns seem to be thinking/hoping that we have China over a barrel because they have more to lose than we do by bailing out of greenbacks.

They’re wrong.

I feel so strongly about the dollar’s imminent demise that I am willing to make you a wager: within the next twelve (12) months the dollar will lose its reserve currency status. And I think we all know what happens after that. Are you so confident in the dollar’s future that you will put a little skin in the game…? 😉

“No one knows for sure when the tide started to turn, or the exact moment when American gold started its slow but seemingly irreversible loss of luster,” Victor Zhikai Gao, a former interpreter for Deng Xiaoping, said. But now, “[m]any Chinese people increasingly fear the rapid erosion of the American dollar.”

Many shops no longer accept dollar-based credit cards, and there are quotas on how many dollars can be converted to renminbi. Those who still keep large amounts of U.S. dollars are those who need it to send their children to U.S. schools, or to travel in other countries that still use U.S. dollars.

For the most part, Chinese multinational corporations still happily accept U.S. dollars as a form of payment—but Mei jin is on its way to becoming a derisive anti-American joke, even a dirty word. China’s appetite for holding dollars is turning into revulsion.

But China isn’t the only Asian country to show public disdain for the U.S. dollar.

Ii eh, domo. That is essentially what the chief finance spokesman of Japan’s opposition said concerning the U.S. dollar on April 12. Ii eh, domo means “no thanks”—as in, dollar-denominated U.S. treasuries? No thanks. Masaharu Nakagawa told the bbc that he was worried about the future value of the dollar, and that if his party were elected in the upcoming national elections it would refuse to purchase any more U.S. treasuries unless they were denominated in Japanese yen.

“If it’s [in] yen, it’s going to be all right,” Mr. Nakagawa said. “We propose that we would buy [the U.S. bonds], but it’s yen, not dollar.

As a U.S. ally, Washington officials don’t often talk about Japan being stuck in a dollar trap. But this recent announcement illustrates the clear weakening of U.S.-Tokyo relations.

“We have come to assume that Japan under the Liberal Democratic Party (ldp) will always cleave to America, if only to safeguard U.S. protection against Chinese naval expansion,” writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph. “But crashes have a habit of bringing regime change.”

Brian Reading, a Japan specialist at Lombard Street Research, says Japan may experience a “seismic shock,” as voters revolt. Will Japan soon have new leadership that is less accommodating to Washington? Even America’s strongest allies are questioning the wisdom of lending money to a nation that has so much debt.

According to a recent unconfirmed report, Germany may be in the dollar skeptic camp too. Economic Analyst Jim Willie quotes an unnamed source saying that the Germans have demanded the “return all their gold bullion held in custodial accounts on U.S. soil.” Dubai has recently sent the same request to London (which is also facing a currency crisis). According to Willie, Germany is acting as a “hidden archenemy” toward the U.S. and UK “on all matters pertaining to gold bullion.” He says Germany is also acting as an adviser to the Chinese on currency and gold issues.

When America’s allies, let alone its enemies, publicly question the viability of the dollar, we can know that things behind the scenes are even worse.

“We’re going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall or the fall of 2010,” said famed commodities investor Jim Rogers on May 12. “It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally in the dollar, so it’s time for a currency crisis.”

The dollar is in big trouble.”

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=6205.4626.0.0

[Arraya]

Bernake is smoking green shoots;)

Fun Facts:

-Job loss average for 09: 663,000 jobs per month
-46/50 states have MIScalculated budget short falls
-Average national monthly equity loss: 400 billion
-20 million homeowners underwater, 35-50% mortgage holders in SoCal
-Percentage of foreclosures from unemployment: 60%
-Federal income tax dropped 44% from a year ago
-Approximate number of job losses from GM/Chysler bankruptcies: 1.5-2 million
-Boomers are opting for early SS
As a result, the trust fund’s annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year — nearly a decade ahead of schedule — and deprive the government of billions of dollars it had been counting on to help balance the nation’s books.

The Treasury Department has for decades borrowed money from the Social Security trust fund to finance government operations<---My favorite line -Growth has gone the way of the dodo Welcome to the New World DISorder. The emperor's cloths are made of dollars...

[Coronita]

[quote=Arraya]Bernake is smoking green shoots;)

Fun Facts:

-Job loss average for 09: 663,000 jobs per month
-46/50 states have MIScalculated budget short falls
-Average national monthly equity loss: 400 billion
-20 million homeowners underwater, 35-50% mortgage holders in SoCal
-Percentage of foreclosures from unemployment: 60%
-Federal income tax dropped 44% from a year ago
-Approximate number of job losses from GM/Chysler bankruptcies: 1.5-2 million
-Boomers are opting for early SS
As a result, the trust fund’s annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year — nearly a decade ahead of schedule — and deprive the government of billions of dollars it had been counting on to help balance the nation’s books.

The Treasury Department has for decades borrowed money from the Social Security trust fund to finance government operations<---My favorite line -Growth has gone the way of the dodo Welcome to the New World DISorder. The emperor's cloths are made of dollars... [/quote] You left out that Medicare won't be able to meet it's obligations in 8 years, much sooner than previously expected. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=104079588&ft=1&f=1018

[Coronita]

[quote=Arraya]Bernake is smoking green shoots;)

Fun Facts:

-Job loss average for 09: 663,000 jobs per month
-46/50 states have MIScalculated budget short falls
-Average national monthly equity loss: 400 billion
-20 million homeowners underwater, 35-50% mortgage holders in SoCal
-Percentage of foreclosures from unemployment: 60%
-Federal income tax dropped 44% from a year ago
-Approximate number of job losses from GM/Chysler bankruptcies: 1.5-2 million
-Boomers are opting for early SS
As a result, the trust fund’s annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year — nearly a decade ahead of schedule — and deprive the government of billions of dollars it had been counting on to help balance the nation’s books.

The Treasury Department has for decades borrowed money from the Social Security trust fund to finance government operations<---My favorite line -Growth has gone the way of the dodo Welcome to the New World DISorder. The emperor's cloths are made of dollars... [/quote] You left out that Medicare won't be able to meet it's obligations in 8 years, much sooner than previously expected. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=104079588&ft=1&f=1018

[Coronita]

[quote=Arraya]Bernake is smoking green shoots;)

Fun Facts:

-Job loss average for 09: 663,000 jobs per month
-46/50 states have MIScalculated budget short falls
-Average national monthly equity loss: 400 billion
-20 million homeowners underwater, 35-50% mortgage holders in SoCal
-Percentage of foreclosures from unemployment: 60%
-Federal income tax dropped 44% from a year ago
-Approximate number of job losses from GM/Chysler bankruptcies: 1.5-2 million
-Boomers are opting for early SS
As a result, the trust fund’s annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year — nearly a decade ahead of schedule — and deprive the government of billions of dollars it had been counting on to help balance the nation’s books.

The Treasury Department has for decades borrowed money from the Social Security trust fund to finance government operations<---My favorite line -Growth has gone the way of the dodo Welcome to the New World DISorder. The emperor's cloths are made of dollars... [/quote] You left out that Medicare won't be able to meet it's obligations in 8 years, much sooner than previously expected. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=104079588&ft=1&f=1018

[Coronita]

[quote=Arraya]Bernake is smoking green shoots;)

Fun Facts:

-Job loss average for 09: 663,000 jobs per month
-46/50 states have MIScalculated budget short falls
-Average national monthly equity loss: 400 billion
-20 million homeowners underwater, 35-50% mortgage holders in SoCal
-Percentage of foreclosures from unemployment: 60%
-Federal income tax dropped 44% from a year ago
-Approximate number of job losses from GM/Chysler bankruptcies: 1.5-2 million
-Boomers are opting for early SS
As a result, the trust fund’s annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year — nearly a decade ahead of schedule — and deprive the government of billions of dollars it had been counting on to help balance the nation’s books.

The Treasury Department has for decades borrowed money from the Social Security trust fund to finance government operations<---My favorite line -Growth has gone the way of the dodo Welcome to the New World DISorder. The emperor's cloths are made of dollars... [/quote] You left out that Medicare won't be able to meet it's obligations in 8 years, much sooner than previously expected. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=104079588&ft=1&f=1018

[Coronita]

[quote=Arraya]Bernake is smoking green shoots;)

Fun Facts:

-Job loss average for 09: 663,000 jobs per month
-46/50 states have MIScalculated budget short falls
-Average national monthly equity loss: 400 billion
-20 million homeowners underwater, 35-50% mortgage holders in SoCal
-Percentage of foreclosures from unemployment: 60%
-Federal income tax dropped 44% from a year ago
-Approximate number of job losses from GM/Chysler bankruptcies: 1.5-2 million
-Boomers are opting for early SS
As a result, the trust fund’s annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year — nearly a decade ahead of schedule — and deprive the government of billions of dollars it had been counting on to help balance the nation’s books.

The Treasury Department has for decades borrowed money from the Social Security trust fund to finance government operations<---My favorite line -Growth has gone the way of the dodo Welcome to the New World DISorder. The emperor's cloths are made of dollars... [/quote] You left out that Medicare won't be able to meet it's obligations in 8 years, much sooner than previously expected. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=104079588&ft=1&f=1018

[Arraya]

Bernake is smoking green shoots;)

Fun Facts:

-Job loss average for 09: 663,000 jobs per month
-46/50 states have MIScalculated budget short falls
-Average national monthly equity loss: 400 billion
-20 million homeowners underwater, 35-50% mortgage holders in SoCal
-Percentage of foreclosures from unemployment: 60%
-Federal income tax dropped 44% from a year ago
-Approximate number of job losses from GM/Chysler bankruptcies: 1.5-2 million
-Boomers are opting for early SS
As a result, the trust fund’s annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year — nearly a decade ahead of schedule — and deprive the government of billions of dollars it had been counting on to help balance the nation’s books.

The Treasury Department has for decades borrowed money from the Social Security trust fund to finance government operations<---My favorite line -Growth has gone the way of the dodo Welcome to the New World DISorder. The emperor's cloths are made of dollars...

[Arraya]

Bernake is smoking green shoots;)

Fun Facts:

-Job loss average for 09: 663,000 jobs per month
-46/50 states have MIScalculated budget short falls
-Average national monthly equity loss: 400 billion
-20 million homeowners underwater, 35-50% mortgage holders in SoCal
-Percentage of foreclosures from unemployment: 60%
-Federal income tax dropped 44% from a year ago
-Approximate number of job losses from GM/Chysler bankruptcies: 1.5-2 million
-Boomers are opting for early SS
As a result, the trust fund’s annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year — nearly a decade ahead of schedule — and deprive the government of billions of dollars it had been counting on to help balance the nation’s books.

The Treasury Department has for decades borrowed money from the Social Security trust fund to finance government operations<---My favorite line -Growth has gone the way of the dodo Welcome to the New World DISorder. The emperor's cloths are made of dollars...

[Arraya]

Bernake is smoking green shoots;)

Fun Facts:

-Job loss average for 09: 663,000 jobs per month
-46/50 states have MIScalculated budget short falls
-Average national monthly equity loss: 400 billion
-20 million homeowners underwater, 35-50% mortgage holders in SoCal
-Percentage of foreclosures from unemployment: 60%
-Federal income tax dropped 44% from a year ago
-Approximate number of job losses from GM/Chysler bankruptcies: 1.5-2 million
-Boomers are opting for early SS
As a result, the trust fund’s annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year — nearly a decade ahead of schedule — and deprive the government of billions of dollars it had been counting on to help balance the nation’s books.

The Treasury Department has for decades borrowed money from the Social Security trust fund to finance government operations<---My favorite line -Growth has gone the way of the dodo Welcome to the New World DISorder. The emperor's cloths are made of dollars...

[Arraya]

Bernake is smoking green shoots;)

Fun Facts:

-Job loss average for 09: 663,000 jobs per month
-46/50 states have MIScalculated budget short falls
-Average national monthly equity loss: 400 billion
-20 million homeowners underwater, 35-50% mortgage holders in SoCal
-Percentage of foreclosures from unemployment: 60%
-Federal income tax dropped 44% from a year ago
-Approximate number of job losses from GM/Chysler bankruptcies: 1.5-2 million
-Boomers are opting for early SS
As a result, the trust fund’s annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year — nearly a decade ahead of schedule — and deprive the government of billions of dollars it had been counting on to help balance the nation’s books.

The Treasury Department has for decades borrowed money from the Social Security trust fund to finance government operations<---My favorite line -Growth has gone the way of the dodo Welcome to the New World DISorder. The emperor's cloths are made of dollars...

[patientrenter]

[quote=partypup]
But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

So partypup, put some facts with those taunts. Can you describe the limit that you think Bernanke will hit that will stop him from buying more Treasuries?

[patientrenter]

[quote=partypup]
But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

So partypup, put some facts with those taunts. Can you describe the limit that you think Bernanke will hit that will stop him from buying more Treasuries?

[patientrenter]

[quote=partypup]
But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

So partypup, put some facts with those taunts. Can you describe the limit that you think Bernanke will hit that will stop him from buying more Treasuries?

[patientrenter]

[quote=partypup]
But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861
[/quote]

So partypup, put some facts with those taunts. Can you describe the limit that you think Bernanke will hit that will stop him from buying more Treasuries?

[partypup]

[quote=flu][quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt [/quote]

Well, apparently investors aren’t buying it:

“New Investor Worry: Treasury Selloff Spiking Interest Rates”

But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861

[partypup]

[quote=flu][quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt [/quote]

Well, apparently investors aren’t buying it:

“New Investor Worry: Treasury Selloff Spiking Interest Rates”

But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861

[partypup]

[quote=flu][quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt [/quote]

Well, apparently investors aren’t buying it:

“New Investor Worry: Treasury Selloff Spiking Interest Rates”

But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861

[partypup]

[quote=flu][quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt [/quote]

Well, apparently investors aren’t buying it:

“New Investor Worry: Treasury Selloff Spiking Interest Rates”

But hey, PatientRenter says Bernanke should be able to put a stop to these interest rate hikes – so we should be just fine. I’ll go back to bed now and dream of lollipops and unicorns…

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30968861

[Coronita]

[quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt

[Coronita]

[quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt

[Coronita]

[quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt

[Coronita]

[quote]
“Garnering attention is the risk the United States could lose its triple-A sovereign credit rating, which reflects the chance of the borrower defaulting on its debt.”
[/quote]

Well, apparently, not losing the AAA rating…..yet….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-US-governments-Aaa-apf-15359171.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Moody’s: US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable
Moody’s says US government’s ‘Aaa’ rating is stable despite country’s growing debt

[Coronita]

…then again, maybe not a day of reckoning (yet, at least)….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-rise-on-relief-over-apf-15373244.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

NEW YORK (AP) — The stock market is again taking its cues from the bond market.

Stocks turned higher Thursday after solid demand at a Treasury auction eased fears that the appetite for U.S. debt would dry up and force the government to pay higher interest rates to entice buyers. That in turn could endanger an economic recovery by driving borrowing rates higher for loans on homes, cars and other major purchases.

Interest rate movements were tugging at the stock market for a second straight day. Investors were relieved that a $26 billion auction of 7-year notes went well Thursday, a day after sending long-term Treasurys plunging on fears that the government could eventually exhaust buyers’ appetite for debt with an unprecedented level of bond sales.

The yield on the 10-year note, a key benchmark for home mortgages and other loans, edged down to 3.73 percent from 3.75 percent the day before. The yield, which moves in the opposite direction from the price of the note, reached its highest level since November on Wednesday.

[Coronita]

…then again, maybe not a day of reckoning (yet, at least)….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-rise-on-relief-over-apf-15373244.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

NEW YORK (AP) — The stock market is again taking its cues from the bond market.

Stocks turned higher Thursday after solid demand at a Treasury auction eased fears that the appetite for U.S. debt would dry up and force the government to pay higher interest rates to entice buyers. That in turn could endanger an economic recovery by driving borrowing rates higher for loans on homes, cars and other major purchases.

Interest rate movements were tugging at the stock market for a second straight day. Investors were relieved that a $26 billion auction of 7-year notes went well Thursday, a day after sending long-term Treasurys plunging on fears that the government could eventually exhaust buyers’ appetite for debt with an unprecedented level of bond sales.

The yield on the 10-year note, a key benchmark for home mortgages and other loans, edged down to 3.73 percent from 3.75 percent the day before. The yield, which moves in the opposite direction from the price of the note, reached its highest level since November on Wednesday.

[Coronita]

…then again, maybe not a day of reckoning (yet, at least)….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-rise-on-relief-over-apf-15373244.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

NEW YORK (AP) — The stock market is again taking its cues from the bond market.

Stocks turned higher Thursday after solid demand at a Treasury auction eased fears that the appetite for U.S. debt would dry up and force the government to pay higher interest rates to entice buyers. That in turn could endanger an economic recovery by driving borrowing rates higher for loans on homes, cars and other major purchases.

Interest rate movements were tugging at the stock market for a second straight day. Investors were relieved that a $26 billion auction of 7-year notes went well Thursday, a day after sending long-term Treasurys plunging on fears that the government could eventually exhaust buyers’ appetite for debt with an unprecedented level of bond sales.

The yield on the 10-year note, a key benchmark for home mortgages and other loans, edged down to 3.73 percent from 3.75 percent the day before. The yield, which moves in the opposite direction from the price of the note, reached its highest level since November on Wednesday.

[Coronita]

…then again, maybe not a day of reckoning (yet, at least)….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-rise-on-relief-over-apf-15373244.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

NEW YORK (AP) — The stock market is again taking its cues from the bond market.

Stocks turned higher Thursday after solid demand at a Treasury auction eased fears that the appetite for U.S. debt would dry up and force the government to pay higher interest rates to entice buyers. That in turn could endanger an economic recovery by driving borrowing rates higher for loans on homes, cars and other major purchases.

Interest rate movements were tugging at the stock market for a second straight day. Investors were relieved that a $26 billion auction of 7-year notes went well Thursday, a day after sending long-term Treasurys plunging on fears that the government could eventually exhaust buyers’ appetite for debt with an unprecedented level of bond sales.

The yield on the 10-year note, a key benchmark for home mortgages and other loans, edged down to 3.73 percent from 3.75 percent the day before. The yield, which moves in the opposite direction from the price of the note, reached its highest level since November on Wednesday.

[Coronita]

…then again, maybe not a day of reckoning (yet, at least)….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-rise-on-relief-over-apf-15373244.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

NEW YORK (AP) — The stock market is again taking its cues from the bond market.

Stocks turned higher Thursday after solid demand at a Treasury auction eased fears that the appetite for U.S. debt would dry up and force the government to pay higher interest rates to entice buyers. That in turn could endanger an economic recovery by driving borrowing rates higher for loans on homes, cars and other major purchases.

Interest rate movements were tugging at the stock market for a second straight day. Investors were relieved that a $26 billion auction of 7-year notes went well Thursday, a day after sending long-term Treasurys plunging on fears that the government could eventually exhaust buyers’ appetite for debt with an unprecedented level of bond sales.

The yield on the 10-year note, a key benchmark for home mortgages and other loans, edged down to 3.73 percent from 3.75 percent the day before. The yield, which moves in the opposite direction from the price of the note, reached its highest level since November on Wednesday.

[Arraya]

[img_assist|nid=11171|title=Pelosi… Asking where she can exchange Dollars for Yuan|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=836|height=600]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-05/27/content_11446020.htm
Chinese President Hu Jintao on Wednesday met with visiting U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Hu highlighted the remarkable progress in bilateral ties since the two nations forged diplomatic relations 30 years ago, saying the two had “worked closer” on many fields in the new century.

He recalled his meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama in London last month, saying the two had agreed to promote a “positive,” “cooperative” and “comprehensive” relationship to set the tone for development of bilateral ties.

China was willing, along with the United States, to make unremitting efforts to forge a positive, cooperative and comprehensive bilateral relationship in the 21st century, Hu said, stressing that mutual effort should be made based on equality and mutual respect.

He said differences could be handled through dialogue and consultation.

[Arraya]

[img_assist|nid=11171|title=Pelosi… Asking where she can exchange Dollars for Yuan|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=836|height=600]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-05/27/content_11446020.htm
Chinese President Hu Jintao on Wednesday met with visiting U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Hu highlighted the remarkable progress in bilateral ties since the two nations forged diplomatic relations 30 years ago, saying the two had “worked closer” on many fields in the new century.

He recalled his meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama in London last month, saying the two had agreed to promote a “positive,” “cooperative” and “comprehensive” relationship to set the tone for development of bilateral ties.

China was willing, along with the United States, to make unremitting efforts to forge a positive, cooperative and comprehensive bilateral relationship in the 21st century, Hu said, stressing that mutual effort should be made based on equality and mutual respect.

He said differences could be handled through dialogue and consultation.

[Arraya]

[img_assist|nid=11171|title=Pelosi… Asking where she can exchange Dollars for Yuan|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=836|height=600]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-05/27/content_11446020.htm
Chinese President Hu Jintao on Wednesday met with visiting U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Hu highlighted the remarkable progress in bilateral ties since the two nations forged diplomatic relations 30 years ago, saying the two had “worked closer” on many fields in the new century.

He recalled his meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama in London last month, saying the two had agreed to promote a “positive,” “cooperative” and “comprehensive” relationship to set the tone for development of bilateral ties.

China was willing, along with the United States, to make unremitting efforts to forge a positive, cooperative and comprehensive bilateral relationship in the 21st century, Hu said, stressing that mutual effort should be made based on equality and mutual respect.

He said differences could be handled through dialogue and consultation.

[Arraya]

[img_assist|nid=11171|title=Pelosi… Asking where she can exchange Dollars for Yuan|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=836|height=600]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-05/27/content_11446020.htm
Chinese President Hu Jintao on Wednesday met with visiting U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Hu highlighted the remarkable progress in bilateral ties since the two nations forged diplomatic relations 30 years ago, saying the two had “worked closer” on many fields in the new century.

He recalled his meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama in London last month, saying the two had agreed to promote a “positive,” “cooperative” and “comprehensive” relationship to set the tone for development of bilateral ties.

China was willing, along with the United States, to make unremitting efforts to forge a positive, cooperative and comprehensive bilateral relationship in the 21st century, Hu said, stressing that mutual effort should be made based on equality and mutual respect.

He said differences could be handled through dialogue and consultation.

[Arraya]

[img_assist|nid=11171|title=Pelosi… Asking where she can exchange Dollars for Yuan|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=836|height=600]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-05/27/content_11446020.htm
Chinese President Hu Jintao on Wednesday met with visiting U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Hu highlighted the remarkable progress in bilateral ties since the two nations forged diplomatic relations 30 years ago, saying the two had “worked closer” on many fields in the new century.

He recalled his meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama in London last month, saying the two had agreed to promote a “positive,” “cooperative” and “comprehensive” relationship to set the tone for development of bilateral ties.

China was willing, along with the United States, to make unremitting efforts to forge a positive, cooperative and comprehensive bilateral relationship in the 21st century, Hu said, stressing that mutual effort should be made based on equality and mutual respect.

He said differences could be handled through dialogue and consultation.

[mixxalot]

Terminator Salvation sounds like a possible alternative future- Soylent Green when food gets scarce.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=mixxalot]Terminator Salvation sounds like a possible alternative future- Soylent Green when food gets scarce.[/quote]

Weren’t the farmers the “NEW” rich in Soylent Green if I remember the movie correctly.’’

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=mixxalot]Terminator Salvation sounds like a possible alternative future- Soylent Green when food gets scarce.[/quote]

Weren’t the farmers the “NEW” rich in Soylent Green if I remember the movie correctly.’’

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=mixxalot]Terminator Salvation sounds like a possible alternative future- Soylent Green when food gets scarce.[/quote]

Weren’t the farmers the “NEW” rich in Soylent Green if I remember the movie correctly.’’

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=mixxalot]Terminator Salvation sounds like a possible alternative future- Soylent Green when food gets scarce.[/quote]

Weren’t the farmers the “NEW” rich in Soylent Green if I remember the movie correctly.’’

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=mixxalot]Terminator Salvation sounds like a possible alternative future- Soylent Green when food gets scarce.[/quote]

Weren’t the farmers the “NEW” rich in Soylent Green if I remember the movie correctly.’’

[mixxalot]

Terminator Salvation sounds like a possible alternative future- Soylent Green when food gets scarce.

[mixxalot]

Terminator Salvation sounds like a possible alternative future- Soylent Green when food gets scarce.

[mixxalot]

Terminator Salvation sounds like a possible alternative future- Soylent Green when food gets scarce.

[mixxalot]

Terminator Salvation sounds like a possible alternative future- Soylent Green when food gets scarce.

[Author]

Posts