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May 21, 2009 at 9:12 PM #404747May 22, 2009 at 8:26 AM #404163(former)FormerSanDieganParticipant
AN – good point. Flat in the Spring is not exactly the most bullish signal.
Since about 2/3 of sales in the SoCal area are LA, OC, and Riverside County, these numbers are probably driven more by those markets.
In fact this report shows San Diego up 5 K month-to-month.
Regardless, the fluctuation in month-to-month median prices of a couple percent is probably below the noise level of the measurement. Up or down 5 K should be considered essentially flat.
Headline news that SoCAL is down in April or headline news that San Diego was up in April or both sensational.
May 22, 2009 at 8:26 AM #404414(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantAN – good point. Flat in the Spring is not exactly the most bullish signal.
Since about 2/3 of sales in the SoCal area are LA, OC, and Riverside County, these numbers are probably driven more by those markets.
In fact this report shows San Diego up 5 K month-to-month.
Regardless, the fluctuation in month-to-month median prices of a couple percent is probably below the noise level of the measurement. Up or down 5 K should be considered essentially flat.
Headline news that SoCAL is down in April or headline news that San Diego was up in April or both sensational.
May 22, 2009 at 8:26 AM #404653(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantAN – good point. Flat in the Spring is not exactly the most bullish signal.
Since about 2/3 of sales in the SoCal area are LA, OC, and Riverside County, these numbers are probably driven more by those markets.
In fact this report shows San Diego up 5 K month-to-month.
Regardless, the fluctuation in month-to-month median prices of a couple percent is probably below the noise level of the measurement. Up or down 5 K should be considered essentially flat.
Headline news that SoCAL is down in April or headline news that San Diego was up in April or both sensational.
May 22, 2009 at 8:26 AM #404713(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantAN – good point. Flat in the Spring is not exactly the most bullish signal.
Since about 2/3 of sales in the SoCal area are LA, OC, and Riverside County, these numbers are probably driven more by those markets.
In fact this report shows San Diego up 5 K month-to-month.
Regardless, the fluctuation in month-to-month median prices of a couple percent is probably below the noise level of the measurement. Up or down 5 K should be considered essentially flat.
Headline news that SoCAL is down in April or headline news that San Diego was up in April or both sensational.
May 22, 2009 at 8:26 AM #404861(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantAN – good point. Flat in the Spring is not exactly the most bullish signal.
Since about 2/3 of sales in the SoCal area are LA, OC, and Riverside County, these numbers are probably driven more by those markets.
In fact this report shows San Diego up 5 K month-to-month.
Regardless, the fluctuation in month-to-month median prices of a couple percent is probably below the noise level of the measurement. Up or down 5 K should be considered essentially flat.
Headline news that SoCAL is down in April or headline news that San Diego was up in April or both sensational.
May 22, 2009 at 3:46 PM #404353Sandi EganParticipant[quote=AN] We’re the first group to call the top, so I suspect we’ll be the first group to call the bottom.[/quote]
I wish you are right.Since I’ve read The Bubble Primer in 2005 I became an adamant believer in housing bubble burst. I knew the prices are going down a lot.
Now it’s a different story though, I am not so sure about the future of the housing market anymore. Granted, the current trend is still down. But for how long? Have you seen a convincing metric that can predict bottom(s) with at least 10% accuracy? A metric, mind you, that should be based on (macro) fundamentals, yet make a quantitative prediction on an extremely local matter? Do you even believe it’s mathematically possible?
Sigh.
May 22, 2009 at 3:46 PM #404606Sandi EganParticipant[quote=AN] We’re the first group to call the top, so I suspect we’ll be the first group to call the bottom.[/quote]
I wish you are right.Since I’ve read The Bubble Primer in 2005 I became an adamant believer in housing bubble burst. I knew the prices are going down a lot.
Now it’s a different story though, I am not so sure about the future of the housing market anymore. Granted, the current trend is still down. But for how long? Have you seen a convincing metric that can predict bottom(s) with at least 10% accuracy? A metric, mind you, that should be based on (macro) fundamentals, yet make a quantitative prediction on an extremely local matter? Do you even believe it’s mathematically possible?
Sigh.
May 22, 2009 at 3:46 PM #404842Sandi EganParticipant[quote=AN] We’re the first group to call the top, so I suspect we’ll be the first group to call the bottom.[/quote]
I wish you are right.Since I’ve read The Bubble Primer in 2005 I became an adamant believer in housing bubble burst. I knew the prices are going down a lot.
Now it’s a different story though, I am not so sure about the future of the housing market anymore. Granted, the current trend is still down. But for how long? Have you seen a convincing metric that can predict bottom(s) with at least 10% accuracy? A metric, mind you, that should be based on (macro) fundamentals, yet make a quantitative prediction on an extremely local matter? Do you even believe it’s mathematically possible?
Sigh.
May 22, 2009 at 3:46 PM #404902Sandi EganParticipant[quote=AN] We’re the first group to call the top, so I suspect we’ll be the first group to call the bottom.[/quote]
I wish you are right.Since I’ve read The Bubble Primer in 2005 I became an adamant believer in housing bubble burst. I knew the prices are going down a lot.
Now it’s a different story though, I am not so sure about the future of the housing market anymore. Granted, the current trend is still down. But for how long? Have you seen a convincing metric that can predict bottom(s) with at least 10% accuracy? A metric, mind you, that should be based on (macro) fundamentals, yet make a quantitative prediction on an extremely local matter? Do you even believe it’s mathematically possible?
Sigh.
May 22, 2009 at 3:46 PM #405048Sandi EganParticipant[quote=AN] We’re the first group to call the top, so I suspect we’ll be the first group to call the bottom.[/quote]
I wish you are right.Since I’ve read The Bubble Primer in 2005 I became an adamant believer in housing bubble burst. I knew the prices are going down a lot.
Now it’s a different story though, I am not so sure about the future of the housing market anymore. Granted, the current trend is still down. But for how long? Have you seen a convincing metric that can predict bottom(s) with at least 10% accuracy? A metric, mind you, that should be based on (macro) fundamentals, yet make a quantitative prediction on an extremely local matter? Do you even believe it’s mathematically possible?
Sigh.
May 22, 2009 at 8:53 PM #404453BobParticipant[quote=AN]
Flat in a the spring season is nothing to write home about. It was flat if not up in 2008 as well and we all know how the rest of the year turned out. 3 months does not make a trend. When I say trend, I mean what has been going on for the last 2 years.[/quote]Dude, if its causing you such stress, may I suggest you ignore threads like this in the future ?
May 22, 2009 at 8:53 PM #404706BobParticipant[quote=AN]
Flat in a the spring season is nothing to write home about. It was flat if not up in 2008 as well and we all know how the rest of the year turned out. 3 months does not make a trend. When I say trend, I mean what has been going on for the last 2 years.[/quote]Dude, if its causing you such stress, may I suggest you ignore threads like this in the future ?
May 22, 2009 at 8:53 PM #404941BobParticipant[quote=AN]
Flat in a the spring season is nothing to write home about. It was flat if not up in 2008 as well and we all know how the rest of the year turned out. 3 months does not make a trend. When I say trend, I mean what has been going on for the last 2 years.[/quote]Dude, if its causing you such stress, may I suggest you ignore threads like this in the future ?
May 22, 2009 at 8:53 PM #405001BobParticipant[quote=AN]
Flat in a the spring season is nothing to write home about. It was flat if not up in 2008 as well and we all know how the rest of the year turned out. 3 months does not make a trend. When I say trend, I mean what has been going on for the last 2 years.[/quote]Dude, if its causing you such stress, may I suggest you ignore threads like this in the future ?
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