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December 17, 2007 at 8:07 PM #119557December 17, 2007 at 8:27 PM #119356RDeNiroParticipant
I just read crash proof. I’m still digesting the info on the book. What Schiff says makes sense. But I can’t but see his arguments too simplistic. I think he is missing part of the picture. Some type of government bail out, maybe not from the US, but from the asian governments. If the value of the dollar colapses, the inflation will bring the fundamentals up dramatically. But interest rates will be so high that people with their $500k houses will be better off (if they locked their interest at 6%)
December 17, 2007 at 8:27 PM #119488RDeNiroParticipantI just read crash proof. I’m still digesting the info on the book. What Schiff says makes sense. But I can’t but see his arguments too simplistic. I think he is missing part of the picture. Some type of government bail out, maybe not from the US, but from the asian governments. If the value of the dollar colapses, the inflation will bring the fundamentals up dramatically. But interest rates will be so high that people with their $500k houses will be better off (if they locked their interest at 6%)
December 17, 2007 at 8:27 PM #119522RDeNiroParticipantI just read crash proof. I’m still digesting the info on the book. What Schiff says makes sense. But I can’t but see his arguments too simplistic. I think he is missing part of the picture. Some type of government bail out, maybe not from the US, but from the asian governments. If the value of the dollar colapses, the inflation will bring the fundamentals up dramatically. But interest rates will be so high that people with their $500k houses will be better off (if they locked their interest at 6%)
December 17, 2007 at 8:27 PM #119565RDeNiroParticipantI just read crash proof. I’m still digesting the info on the book. What Schiff says makes sense. But I can’t but see his arguments too simplistic. I think he is missing part of the picture. Some type of government bail out, maybe not from the US, but from the asian governments. If the value of the dollar colapses, the inflation will bring the fundamentals up dramatically. But interest rates will be so high that people with their $500k houses will be better off (if they locked their interest at 6%)
December 17, 2007 at 8:27 PM #119585RDeNiroParticipantI just read crash proof. I’m still digesting the info on the book. What Schiff says makes sense. But I can’t but see his arguments too simplistic. I think he is missing part of the picture. Some type of government bail out, maybe not from the US, but from the asian governments. If the value of the dollar colapses, the inflation will bring the fundamentals up dramatically. But interest rates will be so high that people with their $500k houses will be better off (if they locked their interest at 6%)
December 18, 2007 at 9:16 AM #119569jyurasek02ParticipantI am just finishing the book also, and trying to wrap my brain around all of the topics covered. What I think I get out of it is that interest rates will rise in the coming recession due to inflation (true inflation as he says, not CPI) and the potential pullout of overseas investors. I discussed this topic in my economics class at business school and one person stated the whole reason the gov is doing this is to sell off our debt for cheaper than what we borrowed at. In other words, driving the dollar down and forcing overseas investors to cash out, basically allows us to pay off the debt with weak dollars. Not sure if this holds water though.
December 18, 2007 at 9:16 AM #119703jyurasek02ParticipantI am just finishing the book also, and trying to wrap my brain around all of the topics covered. What I think I get out of it is that interest rates will rise in the coming recession due to inflation (true inflation as he says, not CPI) and the potential pullout of overseas investors. I discussed this topic in my economics class at business school and one person stated the whole reason the gov is doing this is to sell off our debt for cheaper than what we borrowed at. In other words, driving the dollar down and forcing overseas investors to cash out, basically allows us to pay off the debt with weak dollars. Not sure if this holds water though.
December 18, 2007 at 9:16 AM #119736jyurasek02ParticipantI am just finishing the book also, and trying to wrap my brain around all of the topics covered. What I think I get out of it is that interest rates will rise in the coming recession due to inflation (true inflation as he says, not CPI) and the potential pullout of overseas investors. I discussed this topic in my economics class at business school and one person stated the whole reason the gov is doing this is to sell off our debt for cheaper than what we borrowed at. In other words, driving the dollar down and forcing overseas investors to cash out, basically allows us to pay off the debt with weak dollars. Not sure if this holds water though.
December 18, 2007 at 9:16 AM #119782jyurasek02ParticipantI am just finishing the book also, and trying to wrap my brain around all of the topics covered. What I think I get out of it is that interest rates will rise in the coming recession due to inflation (true inflation as he says, not CPI) and the potential pullout of overseas investors. I discussed this topic in my economics class at business school and one person stated the whole reason the gov is doing this is to sell off our debt for cheaper than what we borrowed at. In other words, driving the dollar down and forcing overseas investors to cash out, basically allows us to pay off the debt with weak dollars. Not sure if this holds water though.
December 18, 2007 at 9:16 AM #119801jyurasek02ParticipantI am just finishing the book also, and trying to wrap my brain around all of the topics covered. What I think I get out of it is that interest rates will rise in the coming recession due to inflation (true inflation as he says, not CPI) and the potential pullout of overseas investors. I discussed this topic in my economics class at business school and one person stated the whole reason the gov is doing this is to sell off our debt for cheaper than what we borrowed at. In other words, driving the dollar down and forcing overseas investors to cash out, basically allows us to pay off the debt with weak dollars. Not sure if this holds water though.
December 18, 2007 at 10:15 AM #119609asragovParticipantDeflation will probably cause the value of the dollar to go up.
In an inflationary environment, because assets are going up in value, debt is good.
In a deflationary environment, debt will kill you as assets are worth less.
Depending on the scenario, taking out debt now to buy a non-productive asset (i.e. a house) is a great idea, or a terrible idea.
The folks at Minyanville yesterday touched on this (hint: they are looking for deflation, so they would say to save your pennies):
December 18, 2007 at 10:15 AM #119744asragovParticipantDeflation will probably cause the value of the dollar to go up.
In an inflationary environment, because assets are going up in value, debt is good.
In a deflationary environment, debt will kill you as assets are worth less.
Depending on the scenario, taking out debt now to buy a non-productive asset (i.e. a house) is a great idea, or a terrible idea.
The folks at Minyanville yesterday touched on this (hint: they are looking for deflation, so they would say to save your pennies):
December 18, 2007 at 10:15 AM #119775asragovParticipantDeflation will probably cause the value of the dollar to go up.
In an inflationary environment, because assets are going up in value, debt is good.
In a deflationary environment, debt will kill you as assets are worth less.
Depending on the scenario, taking out debt now to buy a non-productive asset (i.e. a house) is a great idea, or a terrible idea.
The folks at Minyanville yesterday touched on this (hint: they are looking for deflation, so they would say to save your pennies):
December 18, 2007 at 10:15 AM #119822asragovParticipantDeflation will probably cause the value of the dollar to go up.
In an inflationary environment, because assets are going up in value, debt is good.
In a deflationary environment, debt will kill you as assets are worth less.
Depending on the scenario, taking out debt now to buy a non-productive asset (i.e. a house) is a great idea, or a terrible idea.
The folks at Minyanville yesterday touched on this (hint: they are looking for deflation, so they would say to save your pennies):
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