Could we see bottom already in some cities?

[The OC Scam]

Example: Home in Fullerton was purchased in 2004 for $430,000 listed at 740,000 in March 2006. Sold in June 2006 for 710,000. Fell out of escrow in July ( I think the bank thought 710k was over valued). Sold for 685,000 in August 2006. Now the bank is listing the home for 579,000. That is almost 20% decline in one year. We would still need 25% percent more decline in order to reach 2004 pricing that some on this site believe we are headed too.

How long before the bank lowers inorder to sale at 2004 prices?

There is a house in Brea, CA that is bank owned for six months without a price decline listed 10k higher then the short sale price the owners had listed for 6 months before the bank took over….

[temeculaguy]

2004 prices is child’s play, there’s no way it doesn’t hit 2004 prices. When? Nobody knows. You need someone who tracks that market and you need more examples to establish a trend. The Brea house you referred to where the bank lists it higher than it failed to sell at happens all the time, I think their experts are using zestimates. They will be forced to learn the true market value is what someone will pay for it. 1-2 years is my guess but things have been moving faster than I expected of late.

[Arraya]

many areas in SD are already selling 04 prices. Some condos are going for 03 prices in some of the harder hit areas.

I think OC peaked about 6 months after SD. So you guys are a little behind in rollbacks… Don’t worry it’s coming!

Time to go to the beach….

[hipmatt]

NO bottom in any socal cities for a long while… quit asking. geesh!

Bail OUT PR will have little to no effect as well. This is just the beginning.

[cyphire]

2004? LOL!

I sold my house in December 2006 for about what I paid for it in August 2004. My neighbors told me I sold too low. There are now equivalent homes in my neighborhood with a sticker of under 2004 by 5%. That is their asking price!

Olivenhain.

p.s. The homes are on the market for over 6-8 months. And of course they only show that they just went on the market!!!

I am amazed at the fraud in real estate sales… Pure – absolute – lying – fraud!

p.p.s. Don’t forget that the actual selling price does NOT reflect all the givebacks, closing cost reimbursements, and other fees / giveaways that homeowners are forking over to sell their homes. It also doesn’t reflect the actual price received after the commission is paid.

[Ex-SD]

Nobody has a crystal ball but if you take all the facts into consideration, it’s not much of a leap to see that the more desirable areas may only suffer 30-35% drops from peak prices but most will drop as much as 50-60%. I believe that Fullerton is in the 50-60% loss group that will drop to 1996-1997 price levels.

Cyphire: Good on you! You will have the last laugh. Although Olivenhain is on the highly desirable list for many people, prices in that area are highly likely to drop to 2001-2002 levels. I sold my home in Leucadia in the spring of 2005 for top dollar and got out before the values starting dropping.

[amy]

Why do you think prices in Olivenhain will drop to levels of 2001-2002? I would love to live in that area – horses, great schools, close to the coast and you have some elbow-room!

[cyphire]

Wow ex-sd I am in awe!!! I am jealous of my neighbor who sold his house for 2.5 in 2005. I sold mine in 2006 (Dec) for just over 2M (his should have been at least 200K more than mine anyway), and the current houses are going to sell for 1.8-2.0 this year (if any sell – it’s not looking good).

Olivenhain is dead… Really, really dead. My Realtor is in terrible shape and can’t believe how dead it is. The funny thing is Amy, that the homes for sale have been on the market for close to a year and still show a days on market of 1-50 days. The new homes which were for sale in the 2M’s are now in the 1.6’s-1.8’s and they still don’t have buyers. My neighbor has dropped his price by 300K and still can’t get a buyer for less than I paid, we sold because I didn’t want to sit on the house and commute for a year.

It is awesome there (other than the traffic and the water bills)… But in a downturn it will suffer much worse than many places. Execs are always moving in and out there. But there aren’t any buyers. So anyway – the bubble has JUST STARTED to burst. It will take 5 years at least to deflate (I think much worse) and very few people will be jumping in to Olivenhain. 2002 prices aren’t even on my radar – I think that we will see those this winter and that will not even start the ball rolling south.

[PadreBrian]

2004?? Hell no. We are looking at 2001/2002 in the next few months.

[Author]

Posts