Coronavirus/Economy/Stock Market

[Coronita]

[quote=ltsddd][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=ltsddd][quote=Coronita]Unemployment numbers keeps going up, but surprisingly don’t see equity markets further tanking. Porque?[/quote]

Many factors. There’s one that people tend to overlook. The selling was fast and furious that took out a lot of the weak hands – the lemmings, the johnny comes lately, the overly extended joes and the living on the margins janes. I think that phase of selling in Mar and the buying afterwards reestablish the new bases for stocks that is now already factor in the virus, vaccines, unemployment, etc. The stock market seems to have a positive bias towards any good news about the virus vs the bad news.
That said, the indexes are up about 30% from the lows on Mar 23. I would expect people to look for an exit point to lock in their profits at some point. Personally, I plan to liquidate some of my holdings and park it in cash today.

edit:
BTW., the nasdaq is positive for the year. The rally was broad.[/quote]

Because none of it is directly tied to reality.[/quote]

Sadly, you’re correct. But then we have crossed that line many, many moons ago. We all have to adapt and just go with the flow.

BTW., the unemployment numbers are over-inflated. How many teenagers do you know that barely worked for a handful of hours at a boba shop before all this and now getting a windfall of ~$1000/week for unemployment? Shoot, I know of at least a few.[/quote]

I’m wondering if people like me who was furlowed for 1 day also count… Hey, I’m part of the problem now… Lol.

[Coronita]

[quote=ltsddd][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=ltsddd][quote=Coronita]Unemployment numbers keeps going up, but surprisingly don’t see equity markets further tanking. Porque?[/quote]

Many factors. There’s one that people tend to overlook. The selling was fast and furious that took out a lot of the weak hands – the lemmings, the johnny comes lately, the overly extended joes and the living on the margins janes. I think that phase of selling in Mar and the buying afterwards reestablish the new bases for stocks that is now already factor in the virus, vaccines, unemployment, etc. The stock market seems to have a positive bias towards any good news about the virus vs the bad news.
That said, the indexes are up about 30% from the lows on Mar 23. I would expect people to look for an exit point to lock in their profits at some point. Personally, I plan to liquidate some of my holdings and park it in cash today.

edit:
BTW., the nasdaq is positive for the year. The rally was broad.[/quote]

Because none of it is directly tied to reality.[/quote]

Sadly, you’re correct. But then we have crossed that line many, many moons ago. We all have to adapt and just go with the flow.

BTW., the unemployment numbers are over-inflated. How many teenagers do you know that barely worked for a handful of hours at a boba shop before all this and now getting a windfall of ~$1000/week for unemployment? Shoot, I know of at least a few.[/quote]

I’m wondering if people like me who was furlowed for 1 day also count… Hey, I’m part of the problem now… Woohoo.

[ltsddd]

[quote=Coronita]

I’m wondering if people like me who was furlowed for 1 day also count… Hey, I’m part of the problem now… Woohoo.[/quote]

Also, how many people who were too lazy to look for a job and didn’t care to work but are now collecting unemployment checks?

[Coronita]

[quote=ltsddd][quote=Coronita]

I’m wondering if people like me who was furlowed for 1 day also count… Hey, I’m part of the problem now… Woohoo.[/quote]

Also, how many people who were too lazy to look for a job and didn’t care to work but are now collecting unemployment checks?[/quote]

Hey, now… I resent that. I looked.. I can’t help it if no one wants to hire a senior manager for 1 day / week to manage an engineering project that he hasn’t worked on. 🙂

But to your point I wouldn’t call it lazy completely. Some people are probably scared shitless for needing to work and be in front of people who might be infected. For a minimum wage job, I wouldn’t want my kid to work at a restaurant right now either. Not worth it.

[Coronita]

One thing that is positive…. Moderna is down to $67/share…. Suckers!

[Coronita]

What do you guys think about shorting Peloton?

I mean these $2500 stationary bikes are cute an all. And they might have been popular recently with all these stay at home orders that prevented people from going to the gym.

But as these things gradually lift, do people really want to pay $2500 for a stationary bike and additional $40/month subscription fee? It just seems like a very niche market.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PTON?p=PTON&.tsrc=fin-srch

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita]What do you guys think about shorting Peloton?

I mean these $2500 stationary bikes are cute an all. And they might have been popular recently with all these stay at home orders that prevented people from going to the gym.

But as these things gradually lift, do people really want to pay $2500 for a stationary bike and additional $40/month subscription fee? It just seems like a very niche market.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PTON?p=PTON&.tsrc=fin-srch[/quote]

although I wouldnt pay it, that price sounds fairly reasonable. you compare it not against a cheap stationary bike like you’d buy at a yard sale (or rather, like I’ve bought at a yard sale) but against the cost of going to the spin classes this presumably replaces. it actually saves money to buy the peloton. sort of.

p lus you get to live forever, for just 2,500. 😉

say u join CYCLEBAR, for example, a spin place where you come to get yelled at(motivated) and deafened by loud music. “unlimited” rides, 1 month, 119.00. so 1400 a year.

peloton is basically free in less than 2 years! or if you look at it from an investment perspective, you “invest $2500, and it throws off a 119.00 monthly dividend, like 5%, tax free A MONTH. 60% a year! how can u not buy a peloton! its the biggest money maker ever! plus the money and time u save driving to your spin place.

now me, i had this old schwinn stationary bike for many years, $40.00 (one time payemnt, paid in cash, possibly some of it in quarters) at a new mexico yard sale, had a big heavy front flywheel, was awesome! weighed a LOT. I used it all the time my kids were little, just pedaling like a maniac, for hours and and hours.

no video, no electronics, the “hill” or “sprint” adjustment was just these pads you’d dial down that would hold the flywheel a bit,

basically loud music and a lot of extra energy and testosterone kept me sweaty for hours. it was awesome, but probably wouldve taken a kids finger off if they’d gotten too close.

no one ever got injured. no maintenance was ever required. used zero electricity

now the thought of pedaling hard for hours on an exercise bike makes me feel like, well, that would be dumb.

i sold that vintage schwinn for right around what i paid for it years back (and I took my good saddle off, which id upgraded, pre-sale, everyone has their own preferences, so it was a little stripped down). probably changed hands a few times since then, i bet. was an old overbuilt, beautiful little model.

i do not miss it at all and i do not want anything like it.

but it definitely kept me in cycling condition during some wintry days, at least as good as any “peloton”

now, i do not want my heart rate at its max. I want to go outside for a long walk. if I want a workout, I’ll walk faster up a steep incline. the thought of staring at a computer screen while riding a peloton makes me very very sad.

but 20 years ago? I woudve bought a peloton, if id had the cash and wasnt such an incredibly cheap bastard. idefinitely wouldve wanted one

[The-Shoveler]

I work out every morning, just jumping jacks and weights maybe a little running back and forth across 20′ or so in my living room as fast as I can for a minute or so.

So the Idea of spending thousands on something like this just seems dumb in the first place to me.

I am done in 15-20 minutes.

[Coronita]

I think I make a terrible consumer because when I saw a $2500 exercise bike I was like “whoa”… that’s $500 more than I paid for the car I bought to learn how to drive stick and autocross in back in 2009/10….And that still could get you from point a to point b.

Maybe I’m just cheap. Functional car or Peloton exercise bike…..hmmm……

But what really gets me is the $40/month subscription fee that you need to pay along with exercise bike… That reminds me…Remember that I guy I was talking about above….Can’t afford rent … but can afford to finance Peloton bike…I’m serious…. I saw it.

Oh well, I guess I can’t relate to consumers here.

I go run about 2 miles each day, that’s about it.

Maybe that’s the idea. I should buy a bunch of used broken Miatas for $1000, and convert them into pedal powered cars like this!!! It still probably would be cheaper than a $2500 peloton bike.

That’s awesome ///

[ltsddd]

Some of the sharpest tools in the shed.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/us/california-church-pastors-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

[utcsox]

[quote=ltsddd][quote=Coronita]

I’m wondering if people like me who was furlowed for 1 day also count… Hey, I’m part of the problem now… Woohoo.[/quote]

Also, how many people who were too lazy to look for a job and didn’t care to work but are now collecting unemployment checks?[/quote]

Georgia, which began pushing to reopen about a month ago, currently have two out of every five employees filed for unemployment insurance payment since the mid-March shut down. Disproportionate numbers of employees that work in the retail and health care industries are impacted by the new layoffs. Until we have a vaccine, I am not sure there are enough consumers to support those businesses.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/21/georgia-reopening-coronavirus-jobs-273070

[Coronita]

Looks like Hertz is getting really close to BK…. Those Z06 vettes might be going lower…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-22/hertz-creditor-talks-reach-impasse-hours-before-key-deadline

Edit… The Z06s are all sold….except 1 in vegas. And it’s an automatic.

You snooze, you lose.

https://www.hertzcarsales.com/certified/Chevrolet/2019-Chevrolet-Corvette-70b473320a0e0adf07cdfe61d8c18084.htm

[Coronita]

Happy Friday everyone. So this morning marks my second paid furlow day. Still no one wants to hire me on Fridays. Tried again, but no response. Shucks.

Interesting fun fact. If you apply for CA worksharing, you cannot file online. Work sharing UI benefits can only be snail mailed into the special office in Rancho Cordova. So if you plan on filing worksharing UI benefits, make sure you send it to the correct place. Also, it helps to write a brief cover letter stating how much you are owed in total, and a list of weekly payout amounts. Normally, you wouldn’t need to do this, but the UI offices are getting slammed with applicants so please try to help out the people processing your claims by clearly describing total and each weekly owed amount so they have an easier time. After all, chances are, your UI weekly benefits you are collecting are more than the weekly pay of people working to process your claim. Wait, that sounded backassward. Because it is. So don’t complain how slow it might take.

Side note. I don’t know why CA calls this program “worksharing” because one isn’t really working. A more accurate name might have been “free loading sharing” , but I guess “work sharing” sounds better. Thank God this isn’t a red state, otherwise the state might require me to go pick strawberries in some farm field during my furlow day.

Next week will be interesting. Instead of a 4 day work week, it will be a 3 day work week. My company has Monday off for Memorial Day as a holiday. And according to the rules of worksharing , the employer can not alter the benefits of the employees that have been furlowed under worksharing. So, they cannot take back Monday as a paid holiday. Furthermore, since in order to qualify for worksharing , employees still need to show reduced hours, this means that one furlow day other than the holiday still has to be taken. So next week is 3 day work week for us. Too bad everything is locked down, because it would have been a 5 day long weekend starting today. This also sounds backassward. Oh well.

According to my quick calculations, worksharing UI combined benefits will produce an additional $325 in income per week above my normal weekly salary, or approximately an extra $1300 each month. I increased my automatic investment into my after-tax vanguard account in the most aggressive growth index fund I could find because I figure that would maximize my future gains while the chances of it going to $0 is very low (even theoretically if the index fund went to $0, it would be no different than not having the extra UI income windfall). So, might as well put the unexpected UI income windfall to work on the most aggressive thing. Who knows, if I play my cards right, it might grow into a down payment for another rental, lol.

Too bad these benefits won’t last past July. Or maybe they get extended. Who knows. Ideally they get extended until the end of the year. That would be sweet because on Dec 1st I could return back to work full time and at the end of the month collect my guaranteed bonus and then if decided I want to retire, maybe instead of just quitting, I can request to go on paid family leave to take care of a child that is at home due to school closures. I think that paid family leave is about 70% of your previous pay and lasts about 6 weeks. After that, I think there is a longer term family leave plan at 60% pay for an additional year. I forget the details. Oh well, will cross that bridge if we are still or relocked down in December.

It’s about time for me to go on my morning run. Have a great weekend everyone!

[svelte]

[quote=Coronita]
Side note. I don’t know why CA calls this program “worksharing” because one isn’t really working. A more accurate name might have been “free loading sharing” , but I guess “work sharing” sounds better.
[/quote]

The theory is that, instead of having a company layoff, say, 1 person out of 10 they keep all 10 employed 32 hours instead of 40. The company still keeps everyone on the payroll and the state still pays unemployment, but this encourages companies to eventually get to a point where all 10 are back to full time. If someone gets laid off entirely, there is less chance the company will ever bring them back.

So in essence, the work is shared during the downturn instead of having one person out of work completely.

I think it’s a smart program. Face it, the state was going to pay unemployment one way or the other. Might as well do it in a manner than nudges the company into keeping everyone – with a return to full time likely.

[svelte]

[quote=Coronita]Looks like Hertz is getting really close to BK…. Those Z06 vettes might be going lower…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-22/hertz-creditor-talks-reach-impasse-hours-before-key-deadline

Edit… The Z06s are all sold….except 1 in vegas. And it’s an automatic.

You snooze, you lose.

https://www.hertzcarsales.com/certified/Chevrolet/2019-Chevrolet-Corvette-70b473320a0e0adf07cdfe61d8c18084.htm%5B/quote%5D

Superspeeders Rob Feretti is buying Hertz stock because they burned him in the past.

I hope he doesn’t get burned again if his stock becomes worthless if Hertz goes BK.

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