conceding defeat

[moneymaker]

Thanks gzz, I had forgotten about earnings being a negative thing on a short. I don’t want to go public with the stock like Bill Ackman did, not a good idea to attract too much attention.
If I short a stock who would be the initiating party on a margin call?

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=flu]
I know, I know..IT’S ALL RIGGED!!!![/quote]

Yep I am going with that, never been able to do well in the Stock market except index fund buy and hold 401K but even that I pulled out of last year (too Old need to be in preservation mode).

But One Day, One Day I will beat them dang it LOL.

Anyway I might go back in if we get a 35-40% crash but I don’t see that occurring unless war or some other disaster, Hard to predict with Trump, could be really really good or really really bad I have no clue.

[Coronita]

The thing with Trump is that I am.trying to stay away from big name companies.It only takes one of his 144 characters Twitter rants to sink a stock a few percentage points.

[cvmom]

[quote=earlyretirement]Things don’t move in straight lines forever. I give the market no more than 12 months then we will probably move into recession. I’m not sure of your timing.[/quote]

I agree with this. Decided it was time to drop to 50% stocks (all index funds) when the Dow hit 20K. We are too close to retirement and need a good bit of our $ to be accessible, not locked up in a bear market waiting for a turnaround.

[Coronita]

Wait….Ah hem.. If you recall….

https://piggington.com/i_went_90_cash_today

Just a few weeks ago, when the Trump rally started, and some of us (me included ) were on the wrong side of the fence thinking that the market was going to correct because there was no longer a positive indication to keep driving markets higher and that Trump might cause serious damage to the stock market, folks were saying timing the markets don’t work, why get out based on a whim….

But now, at dow 20k, people are now calling “peak” and getting out, thinking a correction is going to happen soon, and they want to avoid a correction…

Isn’t this market timing too? And isn’t the only difference between you folks now calling the top now and getting out and when I was doing it before Trump became president….the same exact thing that some of you say we shouldn’t be doing? And the only thing different between us is that one of us was more correct out of luck than anything else? For argument saying let’s say down goes to 25k (not saying it will)…Then, was your missed gain also due to poor market timing?

I’m not trying to bust anyone’s chop here. Just trying to understand what the heck is the difference between someone calling “top” 2 months ago and getting out for the sake of asset protection “just in case” something bad happens, and someone calling “top” right now, with the exception that one of us guessed right?

I don’t get it.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=flu]
I’m not trying to bust anyone’s chop here. Just trying to understand what the heck is the difference between someone calling “top” 2 months ago and getting out for the sake of asset protection “just in case” something bad happens, and someone calling “top” right now, with the exception that one of us guessed right?

I don’t get it.[/quote]

It’s Rigged against us market timers LOL!!

I have been mostly out of the market for several years just due to the fact I am too close to retirement to be risk on.

If I was in my 30-40’s I would just keep adding to my 401K index fund and keep my nose to the grind stone, try not to look at the market.

IMO Just looking at the demographics I think we are going to be in good times for a few more years at least, but there are no guarantee’s that something crazy is not going to happen.

[ltsddd]

All we need is for Greenspan to take a few minutes off from what he’s been doing and utter just two words – irrational exuberance.

[Coronita]

I still don’t get the definition of what is market timing as used in this thread and the previous one.

It just seems like we’re calling market timing as a decision that doesn’t go the way you thought it would go and as a result of your incorrect guess, that was market timing , a poor decision..

Versus a decision you make to get out of the market in whole or part at a time when the market directions goes the way you guessed. Then that’s not market timing.. that’s just wise financial decision making for asset protection.

I guess I am dumb and just don’t understand the difference.

I am at an autocross waiting in between runs , so I am bored and thought I’d camp out here today.

[ucodegen]

[quote=flu]
I’m not trying to bust anyone’s chop here. Just trying to understand what the heck is the difference between someone calling “top” 2 months ago and getting out for the sake of asset protection “just in case” something bad happens, and someone calling “top” right now, with the exception that one of us guessed right?

I don’t get it.[/quote]
Umm.. so you are now calling to stay in the market? I’m just a little superstitious.. I remember the market seems to have a way of moving contrary to your suggestions-actions. Almost like it was rigged specifically against someone.

[quote=flu]
It just seems like we’re calling market timing as a decision that doesn’t go the way you thought it would go and as a result of your incorrect guess, that was market timing , a poor decision..

Versus a decision you make to get out of the market in whole or part at a time when the market directions goes the way you guessed. Then that’s not market timing.. that’s just wise financial decision making for asset protection.

I guess I am dumb and just don’t understand the difference.
[/quote]
Both are market timing. The first one is unsuccessful market timing, the second is successful market timing. — also note the wording of ‘goes the way you guessed’. It could also be determined on what ‘inputs’ contributed to your decision.

[FlyerInHi]

Does dood frank going away mean crazy financing is back? Another real estate bubble?

Kev, are you buying a house too?

[spdrun]

QM repeal (aka loans to skells) isn’t going anywhere fast.

What he did away with are fiduciary requirements that investment managers put their clients’ best interests first — more likely to make a stock bubble.

[Coronita]

[quote=ucodegen]
Umm.. so you are now calling to stay in the market? I’m just a little superstitious.. I remember the market seems to have a way of moving contrary to your suggestions-actions. Almost like it was rigged specifically against someone.
[/quote]

No, I’m not making any recommendations whatsoever.

It seems like people are doing using the same rational, logic, reasoning to get out of the market now as other people did a few weeks ago….

But then, at the same time, when those people (me included) did make that decision…and the markets went the other way, there was…

[quote]
It is not wise to go all cash. Don’t time to market. Nobody can do it accurately. A smart thing to do is stay invested
[/quote]

and

[quote]
I disagree. Missing even just a few very good days in the market (which no one can accurately predict when they will be) can cause your returns to be significantly lower than buy-and-hold.
[/quote]

That’s the confusing part….I wasn’t even thinking about trying to “time” a peak value to get out. I was just thinking, you know I’m getting old. I’ve made a lot of money over the past 8 years from all sorts of things…Maybe it’s time to pay off my house, my rental property loans, and move my kid’s education fund more into cash… well, you know…just in case Trump wins and the world goes to shit. Because if I did that, even if everything else blows up… I still have my houses, still have my savings, and my kid’s education is still funded for the next 4 years… And it seems like it’s the same rational that people think right now, that dow is at 20k, a “gut” feeling and just as arbitrary as at any other point in time. That’s why I left that thread after I made that tongue and cheek comment “you’d be singing a different tune if the markets actually went the other way”.

I admit, looking at the subsequent 20+% gain in the market was hard to look at after a trump win. That sucks.. As I’m sure it will suck for those that do get out at 20k an dow marches forward…if that happens. (and that’s a big if)…

[quote]
Both are market timing. The first one is unsuccessful market timing, the second is successful market timing. — also note the wording of ‘goes the way you guessed’. It could also be determined on what ‘inputs’ contributed to your decision.[/quote]

Ok, maybe we’re onto something here.

Examples might be: i”I’m going to try get out right before a crash, and then get back in and try to make a killing.”

Or: “I’m going to get out to mitigate risk, just in case…”

Or something else….

Ok, maybe…Well, if that’s the case, then I’m not sure it’s necessary bad to stay in invested in the market of even to buy a primary house right now. It depends on the age of the person, where their net worth is at this current moment in time, and what there eventual financial goals are, and how far away are they from it.

In as much as a primary house purchase. I’m not sure if it’s really a bad time to buy right now either. If the mortgage is still roughly the same as rent costs, and you can come up with the down payment, and the down payment isn’t ridiculously large, why would it be a bad time to buy?

[an]

flu, I’ll be the contrarian here and stick my neck out there. I forecast this market will go higher and housing will go higher and all the market timer this time will stop calling you a market timer :-). I also believe we’ll see inflation again. So, I’m fully invested in the market. Been fully invested since the day after the election as I said I did.

[Coronita]

[quote=AN]flu, I’ll be the contrarian here and stick my neck out there. I forecast this market will go higher and housing will go higher and all the market timer this time will stop calling you a market timer :-). I also believe we’ll see inflation again. So, I’m fully invested in the market. Been fully invested since the day after the election as I said I did.[/quote]

You are probably right imho.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]When bears capitulate and buy… it usually is a sign of nearing a top.[/quote]

Another sign is when you start seeing more and more commercials on TV targeting individual investors.

ETrade’s first Superbowl commerical was… 2007.

Also when the mainstream news magazines start talking about the market it’s another bad sign.

[Author]

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