clairemont price drops

[csr_sd]

So as we are all watching the prices adjust, and our indices (three car garage monitor, etc.) seem to suggest that our ability to buy more house for either the same or less than last year has happened.

I will probably buy next spring/summer, and am wondering how much more things are likely to drop. I had already thought that it would shoal (not bottom) at around 20-25% down from December 2005 highs (including increase owing to inflation). But now I am feeling that the declines in these areas could be another 15% from the Nov. 2005 high. This would put a nice 3/2 2 car property at around 350K, am I off base, or is the consensus that this could go even lower (over the timescale I am talking about).

thanks

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

It depends what part of Clairemont you are talking about. The northwest and northern sections near Clairemont square for example will likely start hitting 350K by next year. Some listings are already currently under 400K.
If you are looking at more desireable Clairemont areas, such as the Mount Streets it’s a bit higher, and not likely (IMO) to get that low … yet.

[SD Realtor]

Hi csr_sd –

I have a young couple who is really interested in clairemont and every month or so we go out and look at homes there. They are in no real hurry. I have seen some price drops there but there has been an elemenis still alot of stickiness for some of the nicer canyon homes. There is ALOT of inventory and I cannot help but think Clairemont will chunk down but it may not be until there is another good strong wave of foreclosures in that area. There already have been a good deal of foreclosures there and I think your price target will be reached but I am not betting on it in an immediate timeframe. It is possible by late 08 it will get there but it may be for the less desireable homes there. By 09 there is a 50/50 shot at some nicer homes finding that price level….

As always lots of dependencies/wildcards that can slow down or speed up the process.

SD Realtor

[csr_sd]

Thanks, both of you.

I agree with these sentiments. I havent been so much amazed by the stickiness, as people that are stuck will try to stay as long as they can. What is still fairly strange is the disparity amongst homes in this area, going for the same price. during the upswing this disparity was less important because one could get a >100% financing, but now the crap should really be falling.

Interestingly, the price for renting in this area has increased significantly over the last year, although the properties have of late seemed to be flips that are being rented out, that could keep the stickiness quotient up.

When a 3/2 with R/V parking, 2 car garage, and >6k lot, with some upgrades can be found on a canyon for 400K , I can leave my rental, yeah!!!!!

cheers

csr_sd

[sdduuuude]

I seriously doubt canyon homes in Clairemont will reach 400K. Livable canyon homes were not easy to find even at 650K during the crazy time in 2004.

That’s a 40% reduction on nice homes in a decent, central location. I don’t think it’ll happen. I think your 20% range is a better guess and you’ll look to spend $525 to $600K for larger canyon lots.

I continue to be surprised at the stickiness of Mt. Street homes.

I saw a foreclosed home sell, get fixed up, and go back on the market last month. The flippers still haven’t left Clairemont.

[Author]

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