Chula Vista; if I don’t buy now will I be shut out forever?

[Sean19]

This is so difficult.I was looking at houses today in Chula Vista.

House 1; loved the neighborhood, liked the house but cracks in the stucco, messed up bathrooms, totally run down and it was over $400,000.

House 2; ok house, move in ready, yard needs work but that is easy but I hate the location.

House 3; Interesting but way more work than I can afford and poor layout that feels closed.

I just don’t beleive we are in a housing bubble and I think San Diego will always attract people with money. I think the 2008 housing crisis cannot really happen again the way things are now.

Any thoughts?

I am thinking I should take the house in the neighborhood I like and fix it up but it is such a tough sell the way it looks now. As an added bonus it is pre-forclosure so I had to walk in there and see the family there living in limbo. : (

[spdrun]

(1) It’s always different this time, except when it’s not.
(2) The family were idiots and are now paying the price. If you have sympathy, you might offer then a leaseback for a while.

[ocrenter]

interesting observation in my corner of the world.

all of the medical assistants and LVNs are buying.

the doctors are not.

[Anonymous]

There are fates worse than being shut out of Chula Vista forever.

[spdrun]

ocrenter: doesn’t that just mean that doctors have more student debt and worse credit? 😉

[ocrenter]

[quote=spdrun]ocrenter: doesn’t that just mean that doctors have more student debt and worse credit? ;)[/quote]

Haha.

In all seriousness, for everyone else not in the business, 100% no money down loans are always available for doctors, even during the hard landing if I recall correctly.

Doctors are also in need of more expensive tax shelter as well.

[Stripes]

(deleted)

[givdrvr]

No market I have seen goes up forever. We seen multiple stimulus applied to our housing in sequence. First ZIRP, and tax rebates. Then more ZIRP and cash investors. then more cash investors and foreign investment. etc etc. Finally, real job growth and household formation if not wage growth has appeared. This train will stop climbing at some point. Unless another catalyst appears on the scene, my personal opinion is we are within 10-15 percent of the price top.

[Escoguy]

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf

Much depends on if this really happens.

With the forecast for 100M more people in the US over next 45 years, it is entirely possible real estate won’t “crash” again as it did in 2008-11.

Future downturns may be more subtle and regional with far less dramatic impact on the overall financial system.

The US needs immigration to pay for the future entitlements of retirees.

There is no alternative.

[spdrun]

Population has been increasing for literally two centuries. There were still downturns, or rather, blessed opportunities to exploit stupidity.

[givdrvr]

“Future downturns may be more subtle and regional with far less dramatic impact on the overall financial system.”

I concur with this idea, my opinion is we are in the 8th inning before the next pause occurs. Perhaps another catalyst will appear to extend the game.

[gzz]

So you want a nice house in a good location thst does not need major work on a $400k budget? Sorry but you are already priced out.

A basic update to a bathroom with everything replaced with brand new nice midgrade stuff is pretty cheap and easy. As in 1200-4000.

[recordsclerk]

Looking at the charts from Rich, you would have to say short term it’s not going to be any better. There should be a nice price jump this spring/summer. Not sure what will happen in the fall, but the short term not looking good. I’ve been tracking Chula Vista/Spring Valley in the $400 range and would say that there has been a significant jump this spring. Obviously this is not new information, just repeating what’s already been said.
Going forward I think there is a better chance that the $400K range will go up to $500K, then go down to $300K. It would be at least a couple years before we see any major correction in prices if it happens at all. Inventory would have to spike significantly.
I think the minimum wage is going to have a big influence on prices. Minimum wage will be $15hr in a few years. Based on that a couple earning minimum wage would be able to qualify for a $200K house. So if prices revert back to $200K in Chula Vista, a couple earning minimum wage each would be able to qualify to buy a house for the first time in history if rates remain the same as today. I could be wrong, but I don’t think that has every happened.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=gzz]
A basic update to a bathroom with everything replaced with brand new nice midgrade stuff is pretty cheap and easy. As in 1200-4000.[/quote]

Not for the average consumer who wants a general contractor to hold their hands and provide design consulting. More like $15 to $30k with labor.

[gzz]

Wow maybe I am in the wrong business then.

What does a full bath reno cost for your high standards Flyer?

My $1500 included tiling most of the walls, marble flooring, new mirrors, lights and outlets. Kept the old bathtub toilet and sink which were in very good shape, but with new faucets, showerheads, shelves, drains, and cabinet handles. The cabinets were just deep cleaned and refinished.

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