Can the Cellphone Industry Keep Growing?

[sdduuuude]

[quote=patientlywaiting]Say a family budget is $50/person per phone. Subscribers aren’t going to be willing to suddenly pay $80 or $100/mo per phone for some extra data services.[/quote]

Your pricing models are wrong here. $50/per person is way off. I have 4 phones on my family plan. Cost is $90/month. Data services are an additional about $30/month (not sure if that is per phone or not – I don’t subscribe to it).

Also, I could see many dumping their fixed-location $50/mo cable modem for a $30/mo mobile EVDO connection. Save $20 and connect anywhere.

Lots of newly unemployed people start businesses and will require enhanced services more than as an employee.

I’m not saying it the wireless industry is growing through the roof, just pointing out that alot of your assumptions and understanding of the industry are not correct.

[sdduuuude]

I have a second landline phone at my house. It costs me $55/month, though I make very few calls on it.

I have a Verizon plan which allows me to add mobiles for $9.99/month, and any usage on that phone gets subtracted from the minutes I have available for use every month.

Basically, by moving this second line to my Verizon account, I will save $45/month. That move is coming soon.

When people lose their job, they keep their cell phone. It’s that simple. Many will pay their cell phone bill BEFORE rent. Few, if any, industries survied the early 90’s better than wireless.

Some data:
http://www.ctia.org/media/index.cfm/AID/11500
Wireless minutes grew an 10% (yoy) in the first half of 2008. To clarify – that’s the first 6 months of the recession.

I think the industry will continue to grow, but barely. They’ll lose some of the teen market and people will buy crappier phones, but landline substitution for both voice and data will continue.

There may be some price/market share battles through the tough times so some weaker players (Sprint?) may get eaten up. Capitalization and customer service will be key to retention.

I also think T-Mobile is not in the best position due to the fact that they are on a low-capacity system but likely don’t have the capital to upgrade it, and yes – they need to upgrade it. If you aren’t going to listen to CDMAEng on this matter, you might as well not even bother asking anyone on this board.

Cricket has $500M – $1B in capital and are focused on the right customer base.
“Everyone’s a Cricket customer now.”
HEH, HEH.

[sdduuuude]

I have a second landline phone at my house. It costs me $55/month, though I make very few calls on it.

I have a Verizon plan which allows me to add mobiles for $9.99/month, and any usage on that phone gets subtracted from the minutes I have available for use every month.

Basically, by moving this second line to my Verizon account, I will save $45/month. That move is coming soon.

When people lose their job, they keep their cell phone. It’s that simple. Many will pay their cell phone bill BEFORE rent. Few, if any, industries survied the early 90’s better than wireless.

Some data:
http://www.ctia.org/media/index.cfm/AID/11500
Wireless minutes grew an 10% (yoy) in the first half of 2008. To clarify – that’s the first 6 months of the recession.

I think the industry will continue to grow, but barely. They’ll lose some of the teen market and people will buy crappier phones, but landline substitution for both voice and data will continue.

There may be some price/market share battles through the tough times so some weaker players (Sprint?) may get eaten up. Capitalization and customer service will be key to retention.

I also think T-Mobile is not in the best position due to the fact that they are on a low-capacity system but likely don’t have the capital to upgrade it, and yes – they need to upgrade it. If you aren’t going to listen to CDMAEng on this matter, you might as well not even bother asking anyone on this board.

Cricket has $500M – $1B in capital and are focused on the right customer base.
“Everyone’s a Cricket customer now.”
HEH, HEH.

[sdduuuude]

I have a second landline phone at my house. It costs me $55/month, though I make very few calls on it.

I have a Verizon plan which allows me to add mobiles for $9.99/month, and any usage on that phone gets subtracted from the minutes I have available for use every month.

Basically, by moving this second line to my Verizon account, I will save $45/month. That move is coming soon.

When people lose their job, they keep their cell phone. It’s that simple. Many will pay their cell phone bill BEFORE rent. Few, if any, industries survied the early 90’s better than wireless.

Some data:
http://www.ctia.org/media/index.cfm/AID/11500
Wireless minutes grew an 10% (yoy) in the first half of 2008. To clarify – that’s the first 6 months of the recession.

I think the industry will continue to grow, but barely. They’ll lose some of the teen market and people will buy crappier phones, but landline substitution for both voice and data will continue.

There may be some price/market share battles through the tough times so some weaker players (Sprint?) may get eaten up. Capitalization and customer service will be key to retention.

I also think T-Mobile is not in the best position due to the fact that they are on a low-capacity system but likely don’t have the capital to upgrade it, and yes – they need to upgrade it. If you aren’t going to listen to CDMAEng on this matter, you might as well not even bother asking anyone on this board.

Cricket has $500M – $1B in capital and are focused on the right customer base.
“Everyone’s a Cricket customer now.”
HEH, HEH.

[sdduuuude]

I have a second landline phone at my house. It costs me $55/month, though I make very few calls on it.

I have a Verizon plan which allows me to add mobiles for $9.99/month, and any usage on that phone gets subtracted from the minutes I have available for use every month.

Basically, by moving this second line to my Verizon account, I will save $45/month. That move is coming soon.

When people lose their job, they keep their cell phone. It’s that simple. Many will pay their cell phone bill BEFORE rent. Few, if any, industries survied the early 90’s better than wireless.

Some data:
http://www.ctia.org/media/index.cfm/AID/11500
Wireless minutes grew an 10% (yoy) in the first half of 2008. To clarify – that’s the first 6 months of the recession.

I think the industry will continue to grow, but barely. They’ll lose some of the teen market and people will buy crappier phones, but landline substitution for both voice and data will continue.

There may be some price/market share battles through the tough times so some weaker players (Sprint?) may get eaten up. Capitalization and customer service will be key to retention.

I also think T-Mobile is not in the best position due to the fact that they are on a low-capacity system but likely don’t have the capital to upgrade it, and yes – they need to upgrade it. If you aren’t going to listen to CDMAEng on this matter, you might as well not even bother asking anyone on this board.

Cricket has $500M – $1B in capital and are focused on the right customer base.
“Everyone’s a Cricket customer now.”
HEH, HEH.

[sdduuuude]

I have a second landline phone at my house. It costs me $55/month, though I make very few calls on it.

I have a Verizon plan which allows me to add mobiles for $9.99/month, and any usage on that phone gets subtracted from the minutes I have available for use every month.

Basically, by moving this second line to my Verizon account, I will save $45/month. That move is coming soon.

When people lose their job, they keep their cell phone. It’s that simple. Many will pay their cell phone bill BEFORE rent. Few, if any, industries survied the early 90’s better than wireless.

Some data:
http://www.ctia.org/media/index.cfm/AID/11500
Wireless minutes grew an 10% (yoy) in the first half of 2008. To clarify – that’s the first 6 months of the recession.

I think the industry will continue to grow, but barely. They’ll lose some of the teen market and people will buy crappier phones, but landline substitution for both voice and data will continue.

There may be some price/market share battles through the tough times so some weaker players (Sprint?) may get eaten up. Capitalization and customer service will be key to retention.

I also think T-Mobile is not in the best position due to the fact that they are on a low-capacity system but likely don’t have the capital to upgrade it, and yes – they need to upgrade it. If you aren’t going to listen to CDMAEng on this matter, you might as well not even bother asking anyone on this board.

Cricket has $500M – $1B in capital and are focused on the right customer base.
“Everyone’s a Cricket customer now.”
HEH, HEH.

[DWCAP]

I dont know jack about the cell phone biz, but I do know I tried to get my GF a new cell phone for her upcoming BDay, and she turned me down. “Its too expensive” she said, and “I dont wanna get a new phone that I then have to get a data plan with.”

I think it is hard for tech people to realize that the rest of the nation doesnt care about alot of the stuff they do. This isnt the 90’s, and cell coverage isnt an emmerging buisness. Growth will come slow, hard, and be cost vs quality driven.

[DWCAP]

I dont know jack about the cell phone biz, but I do know I tried to get my GF a new cell phone for her upcoming BDay, and she turned me down. “Its too expensive” she said, and “I dont wanna get a new phone that I then have to get a data plan with.”

I think it is hard for tech people to realize that the rest of the nation doesnt care about alot of the stuff they do. This isnt the 90’s, and cell coverage isnt an emmerging buisness. Growth will come slow, hard, and be cost vs quality driven.

[DWCAP]

I dont know jack about the cell phone biz, but I do know I tried to get my GF a new cell phone for her upcoming BDay, and she turned me down. “Its too expensive” she said, and “I dont wanna get a new phone that I then have to get a data plan with.”

I think it is hard for tech people to realize that the rest of the nation doesnt care about alot of the stuff they do. This isnt the 90’s, and cell coverage isnt an emmerging buisness. Growth will come slow, hard, and be cost vs quality driven.

[DWCAP]

I dont know jack about the cell phone biz, but I do know I tried to get my GF a new cell phone for her upcoming BDay, and she turned me down. “Its too expensive” she said, and “I dont wanna get a new phone that I then have to get a data plan with.”

I think it is hard for tech people to realize that the rest of the nation doesnt care about alot of the stuff they do. This isnt the 90’s, and cell coverage isnt an emmerging buisness. Growth will come slow, hard, and be cost vs quality driven.

[DWCAP]

I dont know jack about the cell phone biz, but I do know I tried to get my GF a new cell phone for her upcoming BDay, and she turned me down. “Its too expensive” she said, and “I dont wanna get a new phone that I then have to get a data plan with.”

I think it is hard for tech people to realize that the rest of the nation doesnt care about alot of the stuff they do. This isnt the 90’s, and cell coverage isnt an emmerging buisness. Growth will come slow, hard, and be cost vs quality driven.

[equalizer]

[quote=sdduuuude]I have a second landline phone at my house. It costs me $55/month, though I make very few calls on it.

I have a Verizon plan which allows me to add mobiles for $9.99/month, and any usage on that phone gets subtracted from the minutes I have available for use every month.

Basically, by moving this second line to my Verizon account, I will save $45/month. That move is coming soon.

When people lose their job, they keep their cell phone. It’s that simple. Many will pay their cell phone bill BEFORE rent. Few, if any, industries survied the early 90’s better than wireless.

Some data:
http://www.ctia.org/media/index.cfm/AID/11500
Wireless minutes grew an 10% (yoy) in the first half of 2008. To clarify – that’s the first 6 months of the recession.

I think the industry will continue to grow, but barely. They’ll lose some of the teen market and people will buy crappier phones, but landline substitution for both voice and data will continue.

There may be some price/market share battles through the tough times so some weaker players (Sprint?) may get eaten up. Capitalization and customer service will be key to retention.

I also think T-Mobile is not in the best position due to the fact that they are on a low-capacity system but likely don’t have the capital to upgrade it, and yes – they need to upgrade it. If you aren’t going to listen to CDMAEng on this matter, you might as well not even bother asking anyone on this board.

Cricket has $500M – $1B in capital and are focused on the right customer base.
“Everyone’s a Cricket customer now.”
HEH, HEH.[/quote]

sdude,

you are getting ripped off? As a major QCOM and VZ holder, I wish you weren’t kidding.
Your second line cost $55?? ATT offers phone line starting at $10 for basic line. For $40 on land line you get unlimited calling in US, that’s 43,200 minutes free, VZ wireless is $99 for one line. Cable cos have unlimited in CA for $20/mo for US/CAN for $30/mo.

My Verizon Wire account reps said that cell modem is NOT cable modem replacement. The modem cost for $59.99/mo has limit of 5GB/month. Over that it is $25/MB, so if you hit 6GB, your data cost would be 60+250=$310! The old data plan had strict limit of 5GB, going over would get you banned from VZW.

On the Bright side or “Why you should sell your house and buy these two stocks”:

The PDA phones are the fastest growing category with Average Revenue Per Unit (ARPU) over $100/mo. The Iphone/Blackeberry is what the Nike Jordan shoes were in the 90’s or what Coach/Louis Vuitton bags were 2005.

From VZ Q4 2008 report:
“As we have seen all year, about 70% of service revenue growth is driven by wireless data. Wireless data represented 26.8% of total service revenue in the fourth quarter. Data revenue is now in excess of $10 billion annually, up 44% in 2008. Total data ARPU in the fourth quarter grew by $3.02 or nearly 28% year-over-year.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/116798-verizon-communications-inc-q4-2008-earnings-call-transcript?page=3

Hello, 44% growth in data revenue!! Bring on 4G, 5G and print that money.

gotta go and check out that Samsung Omnia phone. Anyone have any thoughts on that phone?
http://www.verizonwireless.com/b2c/store/controller?item=phoneFirst&action=viewPhoneDetail&selectedPhoneId=4366

[equalizer]

[quote=sdduuuude]I have a second landline phone at my house. It costs me $55/month, though I make very few calls on it.

I have a Verizon plan which allows me to add mobiles for $9.99/month, and any usage on that phone gets subtracted from the minutes I have available for use every month.

Basically, by moving this second line to my Verizon account, I will save $45/month. That move is coming soon.

When people lose their job, they keep their cell phone. It’s that simple. Many will pay their cell phone bill BEFORE rent. Few, if any, industries survied the early 90’s better than wireless.

Some data:
http://www.ctia.org/media/index.cfm/AID/11500
Wireless minutes grew an 10% (yoy) in the first half of 2008. To clarify – that’s the first 6 months of the recession.

I think the industry will continue to grow, but barely. They’ll lose some of the teen market and people will buy crappier phones, but landline substitution for both voice and data will continue.

There may be some price/market share battles through the tough times so some weaker players (Sprint?) may get eaten up. Capitalization and customer service will be key to retention.

I also think T-Mobile is not in the best position due to the fact that they are on a low-capacity system but likely don’t have the capital to upgrade it, and yes – they need to upgrade it. If you aren’t going to listen to CDMAEng on this matter, you might as well not even bother asking anyone on this board.

Cricket has $500M – $1B in capital and are focused on the right customer base.
“Everyone’s a Cricket customer now.”
HEH, HEH.[/quote]

sdude,

you are getting ripped off? As a major QCOM and VZ holder, I wish you weren’t kidding.
Your second line cost $55?? ATT offers phone line starting at $10 for basic line. For $40 on land line you get unlimited calling in US, that’s 43,200 minutes free, VZ wireless is $99 for one line. Cable cos have unlimited in CA for $20/mo for US/CAN for $30/mo.

My Verizon Wire account reps said that cell modem is NOT cable modem replacement. The modem cost for $59.99/mo has limit of 5GB/month. Over that it is $25/MB, so if you hit 6GB, your data cost would be 60+250=$310! The old data plan had strict limit of 5GB, going over would get you banned from VZW.

On the Bright side or “Why you should sell your house and buy these two stocks”:

The PDA phones are the fastest growing category with Average Revenue Per Unit (ARPU) over $100/mo. The Iphone/Blackeberry is what the Nike Jordan shoes were in the 90’s or what Coach/Louis Vuitton bags were 2005.

From VZ Q4 2008 report:
“As we have seen all year, about 70% of service revenue growth is driven by wireless data. Wireless data represented 26.8% of total service revenue in the fourth quarter. Data revenue is now in excess of $10 billion annually, up 44% in 2008. Total data ARPU in the fourth quarter grew by $3.02 or nearly 28% year-over-year.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/116798-verizon-communications-inc-q4-2008-earnings-call-transcript?page=3

Hello, 44% growth in data revenue!! Bring on 4G, 5G and print that money.

gotta go and check out that Samsung Omnia phone. Anyone have any thoughts on that phone?
http://www.verizonwireless.com/b2c/store/controller?item=phoneFirst&action=viewPhoneDetail&selectedPhoneId=4366

[equalizer]

[quote=sdduuuude]I have a second landline phone at my house. It costs me $55/month, though I make very few calls on it.

I have a Verizon plan which allows me to add mobiles for $9.99/month, and any usage on that phone gets subtracted from the minutes I have available for use every month.

Basically, by moving this second line to my Verizon account, I will save $45/month. That move is coming soon.

When people lose their job, they keep their cell phone. It’s that simple. Many will pay their cell phone bill BEFORE rent. Few, if any, industries survied the early 90’s better than wireless.

Some data:
http://www.ctia.org/media/index.cfm/AID/11500
Wireless minutes grew an 10% (yoy) in the first half of 2008. To clarify – that’s the first 6 months of the recession.

I think the industry will continue to grow, but barely. They’ll lose some of the teen market and people will buy crappier phones, but landline substitution for both voice and data will continue.

There may be some price/market share battles through the tough times so some weaker players (Sprint?) may get eaten up. Capitalization and customer service will be key to retention.

I also think T-Mobile is not in the best position due to the fact that they are on a low-capacity system but likely don’t have the capital to upgrade it, and yes – they need to upgrade it. If you aren’t going to listen to CDMAEng on this matter, you might as well not even bother asking anyone on this board.

Cricket has $500M – $1B in capital and are focused on the right customer base.
“Everyone’s a Cricket customer now.”
HEH, HEH.[/quote]

sdude,

you are getting ripped off? As a major QCOM and VZ holder, I wish you weren’t kidding.
Your second line cost $55?? ATT offers phone line starting at $10 for basic line. For $40 on land line you get unlimited calling in US, that’s 43,200 minutes free, VZ wireless is $99 for one line. Cable cos have unlimited in CA for $20/mo for US/CAN for $30/mo.

My Verizon Wire account reps said that cell modem is NOT cable modem replacement. The modem cost for $59.99/mo has limit of 5GB/month. Over that it is $25/MB, so if you hit 6GB, your data cost would be 60+250=$310! The old data plan had strict limit of 5GB, going over would get you banned from VZW.

On the Bright side or “Why you should sell your house and buy these two stocks”:

The PDA phones are the fastest growing category with Average Revenue Per Unit (ARPU) over $100/mo. The Iphone/Blackeberry is what the Nike Jordan shoes were in the 90’s or what Coach/Louis Vuitton bags were 2005.

From VZ Q4 2008 report:
“As we have seen all year, about 70% of service revenue growth is driven by wireless data. Wireless data represented 26.8% of total service revenue in the fourth quarter. Data revenue is now in excess of $10 billion annually, up 44% in 2008. Total data ARPU in the fourth quarter grew by $3.02 or nearly 28% year-over-year.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/116798-verizon-communications-inc-q4-2008-earnings-call-transcript?page=3

Hello, 44% growth in data revenue!! Bring on 4G, 5G and print that money.

gotta go and check out that Samsung Omnia phone. Anyone have any thoughts on that phone?
http://www.verizonwireless.com/b2c/store/controller?item=phoneFirst&action=viewPhoneDetail&selectedPhoneId=4366

[equalizer]

[quote=sdduuuude]I have a second landline phone at my house. It costs me $55/month, though I make very few calls on it.

I have a Verizon plan which allows me to add mobiles for $9.99/month, and any usage on that phone gets subtracted from the minutes I have available for use every month.

Basically, by moving this second line to my Verizon account, I will save $45/month. That move is coming soon.

When people lose their job, they keep their cell phone. It’s that simple. Many will pay their cell phone bill BEFORE rent. Few, if any, industries survied the early 90’s better than wireless.

Some data:
http://www.ctia.org/media/index.cfm/AID/11500
Wireless minutes grew an 10% (yoy) in the first half of 2008. To clarify – that’s the first 6 months of the recession.

I think the industry will continue to grow, but barely. They’ll lose some of the teen market and people will buy crappier phones, but landline substitution for both voice and data will continue.

There may be some price/market share battles through the tough times so some weaker players (Sprint?) may get eaten up. Capitalization and customer service will be key to retention.

I also think T-Mobile is not in the best position due to the fact that they are on a low-capacity system but likely don’t have the capital to upgrade it, and yes – they need to upgrade it. If you aren’t going to listen to CDMAEng on this matter, you might as well not even bother asking anyone on this board.

Cricket has $500M – $1B in capital and are focused on the right customer base.
“Everyone’s a Cricket customer now.”
HEH, HEH.[/quote]

sdude,

you are getting ripped off? As a major QCOM and VZ holder, I wish you weren’t kidding.
Your second line cost $55?? ATT offers phone line starting at $10 for basic line. For $40 on land line you get unlimited calling in US, that’s 43,200 minutes free, VZ wireless is $99 for one line. Cable cos have unlimited in CA for $20/mo for US/CAN for $30/mo.

My Verizon Wire account reps said that cell modem is NOT cable modem replacement. The modem cost for $59.99/mo has limit of 5GB/month. Over that it is $25/MB, so if you hit 6GB, your data cost would be 60+250=$310! The old data plan had strict limit of 5GB, going over would get you banned from VZW.

On the Bright side or “Why you should sell your house and buy these two stocks”:

The PDA phones are the fastest growing category with Average Revenue Per Unit (ARPU) over $100/mo. The Iphone/Blackeberry is what the Nike Jordan shoes were in the 90’s or what Coach/Louis Vuitton bags were 2005.

From VZ Q4 2008 report:
“As we have seen all year, about 70% of service revenue growth is driven by wireless data. Wireless data represented 26.8% of total service revenue in the fourth quarter. Data revenue is now in excess of $10 billion annually, up 44% in 2008. Total data ARPU in the fourth quarter grew by $3.02 or nearly 28% year-over-year.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/116798-verizon-communications-inc-q4-2008-earnings-call-transcript?page=3

Hello, 44% growth in data revenue!! Bring on 4G, 5G and print that money.

gotta go and check out that Samsung Omnia phone. Anyone have any thoughts on that phone?
http://www.verizonwireless.com/b2c/store/controller?item=phoneFirst&action=viewPhoneDetail&selectedPhoneId=4366

[Author]

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