BUY REAL ESTATE NOW

[sdduuuude]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]My original post was a bit light on details …[/quote]

HAHAHAHA. “a bit light”
That’s hilarious.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=Jacarandoso]I like the idea some piggs have expressed about buying a rental that becomes a place for the kids to stay when they go to college.[/quote]

Hmmmm. I haven’t heard anyone mention it, but I like it. Not sure if I will be able to keep my Clairemont house when we move north but that is a pretty compelling reason.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=paramount]BUY REAL ESTATE NOW

Brought to you by NAR[/quote]

Because now is a good time to buy or sell a home.

[NotCranky]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=Jacarandoso]I like the idea some piggs have expressed about buying a rental that becomes a place for the kids to stay when they go to college.[/quote]

Hmmmm. I haven’t heard anyone mention it, but I like it. Not sure if I will be able to keep my Clairemont house when we move north but that is a pretty compelling reason.[/quote]

Your Clairmemont house would be ideal. Lots of room for them to have roommates that keep income coming in…and for parties.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=paramount]BUY REAL ESTATE NOW

Brought to you by NAR[/quote]

Because now is a good time to buy or sell a home.[/quote]

While I can’t say anything for NAR, I don’t think it is a good time to sell a home. 2005-2006 was a good time to sell. If you still own something and have survived the past 6 years, it might be the worst time to sell since 1997.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]
While I can’t say anything for NAR, I don’t think it is a good time to sell a home. 2005-2006 was a good time to sell. If you still own something and have survived the past 6 years, it might be the worst time to sell since 1997.[/quote]

He didn’t mean it; that was just a callback to this hilariously inept piece of NAR propaganda from late 2006:

http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2006/11/nar-has-much-more-work-to-do.html

[outtamojo]

OMG- mortgage rates seem to have hit a new low. I’m seeing 4.00 with about 3k in fees on Aimloans for investment property- I’m sure others can find even better.

[sdrealtor]

FLU must have refied again last week

[briansd1]

Just for fun, I looked at a friend’s purchase in an 8 unit development (not in CA). He bought in 12/2010 for $253k including finished basement.

The neighbor two houses down paid $300k without finished basement on 01/2009.

The next door neighbor paid $280k, without finished basement on 3/2009.

There are 7 units that are about to be completed and sold later in the spring. We will see what they sell for. I’m thinking about $275 without finished basement.

As the market is bouncing along the bottom, it depends on the micro market, and you have to create your own bottom.

[briansd1]

[quote=sdrealtor]IN all my fairness, my prediction was based upon my belief that option arm/toxic loans would get wiped out quickly which they did.

I beleived those with long fixed periods (10 and 30 yr fixed rate loans) would be fine but I figured on a 2nd wave from all the people that took out 5/1 ARM’s between 2004 and 2007 getting hit with resets when rates went way up which they didnt. The low rates minimized much of that and many of these folks have refied into even lower rates. So while it didnt play out exactly as I expected the timeline seems like it should be spot on IMO.

I guess it really speaks to how dynamic all the factors influencing things are.[/quote]

I agree with this.

I will add that the reseting ARMs at lower rates have helped people have adjustable mortgages.

People who bought or took cash-out refis at the peak cannot refi anyway because they don’t have equity.

Those who got fixed mortgages at the peak and are under water are definitely stuck… so ironically they have all the incentives to strategically default. In the meantime, those with ARMs are benefiting from a low rate environment so they are more likely to stay put.

At the high end, I’m seeing that owners are slowly running out of wherewithal and there are more choices coming up. That’s what I expected to happen.

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]FLU must have refied again last week[/quote]

Just shut up and rub it in…. or I will add you to my ignore list 🙂 (j/k)

15 year is 3.00 now…Still waiting for a 2.50 no points/no cost.

http://aerofcu.mortgagewebcenter.com/Default.asp?bhcp=1

[briansd1]

Could interest rates fall to 2%?

Interesting question. I suppose they could if we continue to have slow growth like Japan.

Like I said before, I have a friend who’s only had ARMs for more than 20 years. He’s saved a lot of money. Those who wanted the “security” of fixed rates paid the price. Greenspan was right on this point.

I’m personally not making any bets on interest rates either way. But before you make any bets on higher interest rates as “a sure thing,” don’t forget that…

1) For the last 30 years, the trend in interest rates has been down.
2) Mortgage rates in Japan today are less than 2%.

http://www.topstockanalysts.com/index.php/2011/07/14/could-mortgage-rates-fall-50-from-here/

[an]

Sure, if you look from the peak to now, it was a good idea to go with ARM. Here’s a chart from 1963: http://mortgage-x.com/images/graph/fhfb_contract_rate.gif
Those who got ARM in 1963 would be pretty pissed off for not getting a FRM. It didn’t get back to sub 6% until 40 years later. Today, we’re at 50+ years low, do you think it’s as wise to go with ARM as the 1980s, when you were above historical average?

[briansd1]

[quote=AN]Today, we’re at 50+ years low, do you think it’s as wise to go with ARM as the 1980s, when you were above historical average?[/quote]

I think it depends on your holding period. If you want to buy for 7 years and then move up, then I think an ARM might be the way to go.

The difference between 4% and 2.75% is huge in terms of percentage. Maybe go with the ARM and put the difference towards paying down the principal.

I think that rates will stay low for the next 5 years or so because that’s how long it will take the western economies to work out the debt overhang. By that time we would have had our own lost decade of slow economic growth.

IMO, as long as economic growth does not get stronger, central banks will work extra hard to keep rates low.

I think that 1963 to 1983, roughly a two decade stretch, was a different kind of economy. Population growth was strong. People were buying cars and new technology. The babies boomers were moving to the suburbs, installing central air, and enjoying things their parents never had growing up.

Anyway, time will tell… in 5 to 7 years, we can look back just for fun.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=briansd1]Could interest rates fall to 2%?

Interesting question. I suppose they could if we continue to have slow growth like Japan.

Like I said before, I have a friend who’s only had ARMs for more than 20 years. He’s saved a lot of money. Those who wanted the “security” of fixed rates paid the price. Greenspan was right on this point.

I’m personally not making any bets on interest rates either way. But before you make any bets on higher interest rates as “a sure thing,” don’t forget that…

1) For the last 30 years, the trend in interest rates has been down.
2) Mortgage rates in Japan today are less than 2%.

http://www.topstockanalysts.com/index.php/2011/07/14/could-mortgage-rates-fall-50-from-here/

[/quote]

brian, its been 25 years for me (taking out only ARM mtgs). I feel I HAVE saved a lot of money over the years since I never had a need for “serial refinancing” (for a rate reduction) OR “cash out.”

However, since I believe I have a low lifetime cap of 2.7%, I’ll never see a low of 2% with my current mtg (assuming fixed rates ever go that low).

***

Happy holidays, Piggs! I’ve been “swamped” lately :=D

[Author]

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