Buy in Sydney Australia?

[4826monongahela]

We’re cool on the FIRB thing – just got Permanent Residency visa status.

employment & general economic outlook is very poor with sentiment that worst is yet to come. I guess I just worry that with it will come cheeeeper house prices, and might be better to wait. On other hand, we really like the aptmt we are considering and have seen lots that aren’t as good (for us.)

[patientrenter]

4826, I don’t know any details about Aussie RE, but I have kept vaguely aware of its movements for the last 20-30 years.

My definite impression is that Australia went into a bubble every bit as inflated as So Cal, and maybe even more in some places.

If I were you, I’d look for a good long-term house price series for Australia, like our own Case-Shiller. After looking at it, and comparing to something like per-capita GDP, you’ll have a better idea where current Australian prices are in the up-and-down cycle, relative to the last 20-40 years.

Patience and logic!

[patientrenter]

4826, I don’t know any details about Aussie RE, but I have kept vaguely aware of its movements for the last 20-30 years.

My definite impression is that Australia went into a bubble every bit as inflated as So Cal, and maybe even more in some places.

If I were you, I’d look for a good long-term house price series for Australia, like our own Case-Shiller. After looking at it, and comparing to something like per-capita GDP, you’ll have a better idea where current Australian prices are in the up-and-down cycle, relative to the last 20-40 years.

Patience and logic!

[patientrenter]

4826, I don’t know any details about Aussie RE, but I have kept vaguely aware of its movements for the last 20-30 years.

My definite impression is that Australia went into a bubble every bit as inflated as So Cal, and maybe even more in some places.

If I were you, I’d look for a good long-term house price series for Australia, like our own Case-Shiller. After looking at it, and comparing to something like per-capita GDP, you’ll have a better idea where current Australian prices are in the up-and-down cycle, relative to the last 20-40 years.

Patience and logic!

[patientrenter]

4826, I don’t know any details about Aussie RE, but I have kept vaguely aware of its movements for the last 20-30 years.

My definite impression is that Australia went into a bubble every bit as inflated as So Cal, and maybe even more in some places.

If I were you, I’d look for a good long-term house price series for Australia, like our own Case-Shiller. After looking at it, and comparing to something like per-capita GDP, you’ll have a better idea where current Australian prices are in the up-and-down cycle, relative to the last 20-40 years.

Patience and logic!

[patientrenter]

4826, I don’t know any details about Aussie RE, but I have kept vaguely aware of its movements for the last 20-30 years.

My definite impression is that Australia went into a bubble every bit as inflated as So Cal, and maybe even more in some places.

If I were you, I’d look for a good long-term house price series for Australia, like our own Case-Shiller. After looking at it, and comparing to something like per-capita GDP, you’ll have a better idea where current Australian prices are in the up-and-down cycle, relative to the last 20-40 years.

Patience and logic!

[barnaby33]

Just got back from two months in Sydney mid December. For all you folks who aren’t aware, Sydney’s RE bubble is even WORSE than ours, far worse. Especially in the eastern suburbs and northern shores communities. If you think Manly is expensive Mosman will make you cry. I gotta preface my comments with, I lived in Bondi and only took the ferry to Manly twice.

As to your technical question, Sydney doesn’t have anything like redfin that I know of. Realestate.com.au is one source of MLS like info but I never found much better.

Australia’s economy is in decline same as ours, despite their protestations to the contrary. Their dollar strength and the strength of their entire economy is based on commodity exports. Think gold, copper, chardonnay etc. If you think those are going to come back in price then maybe Sydney RE can hold something near where its currently priced. I don’t believe there is a snowballs chance in hell thats going to happen.

Second don’t believe all the crap you hear about their lending being more strict. Every mortgage is a 5 year ARM in Oz (at most), there are no 30 year fixed mortgages.

Finally you should look for an article by the chief economist of ANZ put out in late november about the Sydney housing market. He uses traditional debate techniques to argue that Australia’s in general and Sydney in particular aren’t going to fall much. Ultimately he is wrong but his opening paragraphs are very important. In them he talks about how Australia has the same economic and debt issues that we do.

Sydney is a great place. One of the few in the world I could live outside SD, but it was a great place 10 years ago too. Don’t believe the hype.

One last thing, Oz seems about 18 months behind us in terms of RE pricing, denial and job loss, but its catching up quickly.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Just got back from two months in Sydney mid December. For all you folks who aren’t aware, Sydney’s RE bubble is even WORSE than ours, far worse. Especially in the eastern suburbs and northern shores communities. If you think Manly is expensive Mosman will make you cry. I gotta preface my comments with, I lived in Bondi and only took the ferry to Manly twice.

As to your technical question, Sydney doesn’t have anything like redfin that I know of. Realestate.com.au is one source of MLS like info but I never found much better.

Australia’s economy is in decline same as ours, despite their protestations to the contrary. Their dollar strength and the strength of their entire economy is based on commodity exports. Think gold, copper, chardonnay etc. If you think those are going to come back in price then maybe Sydney RE can hold something near where its currently priced. I don’t believe there is a snowballs chance in hell thats going to happen.

Second don’t believe all the crap you hear about their lending being more strict. Every mortgage is a 5 year ARM in Oz (at most), there are no 30 year fixed mortgages.

Finally you should look for an article by the chief economist of ANZ put out in late november about the Sydney housing market. He uses traditional debate techniques to argue that Australia’s in general and Sydney in particular aren’t going to fall much. Ultimately he is wrong but his opening paragraphs are very important. In them he talks about how Australia has the same economic and debt issues that we do.

Sydney is a great place. One of the few in the world I could live outside SD, but it was a great place 10 years ago too. Don’t believe the hype.

One last thing, Oz seems about 18 months behind us in terms of RE pricing, denial and job loss, but its catching up quickly.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Just got back from two months in Sydney mid December. For all you folks who aren’t aware, Sydney’s RE bubble is even WORSE than ours, far worse. Especially in the eastern suburbs and northern shores communities. If you think Manly is expensive Mosman will make you cry. I gotta preface my comments with, I lived in Bondi and only took the ferry to Manly twice.

As to your technical question, Sydney doesn’t have anything like redfin that I know of. Realestate.com.au is one source of MLS like info but I never found much better.

Australia’s economy is in decline same as ours, despite their protestations to the contrary. Their dollar strength and the strength of their entire economy is based on commodity exports. Think gold, copper, chardonnay etc. If you think those are going to come back in price then maybe Sydney RE can hold something near where its currently priced. I don’t believe there is a snowballs chance in hell thats going to happen.

Second don’t believe all the crap you hear about their lending being more strict. Every mortgage is a 5 year ARM in Oz (at most), there are no 30 year fixed mortgages.

Finally you should look for an article by the chief economist of ANZ put out in late november about the Sydney housing market. He uses traditional debate techniques to argue that Australia’s in general and Sydney in particular aren’t going to fall much. Ultimately he is wrong but his opening paragraphs are very important. In them he talks about how Australia has the same economic and debt issues that we do.

Sydney is a great place. One of the few in the world I could live outside SD, but it was a great place 10 years ago too. Don’t believe the hype.

One last thing, Oz seems about 18 months behind us in terms of RE pricing, denial and job loss, but its catching up quickly.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Just got back from two months in Sydney mid December. For all you folks who aren’t aware, Sydney’s RE bubble is even WORSE than ours, far worse. Especially in the eastern suburbs and northern shores communities. If you think Manly is expensive Mosman will make you cry. I gotta preface my comments with, I lived in Bondi and only took the ferry to Manly twice.

As to your technical question, Sydney doesn’t have anything like redfin that I know of. Realestate.com.au is one source of MLS like info but I never found much better.

Australia’s economy is in decline same as ours, despite their protestations to the contrary. Their dollar strength and the strength of their entire economy is based on commodity exports. Think gold, copper, chardonnay etc. If you think those are going to come back in price then maybe Sydney RE can hold something near where its currently priced. I don’t believe there is a snowballs chance in hell thats going to happen.

Second don’t believe all the crap you hear about their lending being more strict. Every mortgage is a 5 year ARM in Oz (at most), there are no 30 year fixed mortgages.

Finally you should look for an article by the chief economist of ANZ put out in late november about the Sydney housing market. He uses traditional debate techniques to argue that Australia’s in general and Sydney in particular aren’t going to fall much. Ultimately he is wrong but his opening paragraphs are very important. In them he talks about how Australia has the same economic and debt issues that we do.

Sydney is a great place. One of the few in the world I could live outside SD, but it was a great place 10 years ago too. Don’t believe the hype.

One last thing, Oz seems about 18 months behind us in terms of RE pricing, denial and job loss, but its catching up quickly.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Just got back from two months in Sydney mid December. For all you folks who aren’t aware, Sydney’s RE bubble is even WORSE than ours, far worse. Especially in the eastern suburbs and northern shores communities. If you think Manly is expensive Mosman will make you cry. I gotta preface my comments with, I lived in Bondi and only took the ferry to Manly twice.

As to your technical question, Sydney doesn’t have anything like redfin that I know of. Realestate.com.au is one source of MLS like info but I never found much better.

Australia’s economy is in decline same as ours, despite their protestations to the contrary. Their dollar strength and the strength of their entire economy is based on commodity exports. Think gold, copper, chardonnay etc. If you think those are going to come back in price then maybe Sydney RE can hold something near where its currently priced. I don’t believe there is a snowballs chance in hell thats going to happen.

Second don’t believe all the crap you hear about their lending being more strict. Every mortgage is a 5 year ARM in Oz (at most), there are no 30 year fixed mortgages.

Finally you should look for an article by the chief economist of ANZ put out in late november about the Sydney housing market. He uses traditional debate techniques to argue that Australia’s in general and Sydney in particular aren’t going to fall much. Ultimately he is wrong but his opening paragraphs are very important. In them he talks about how Australia has the same economic and debt issues that we do.

Sydney is a great place. One of the few in the world I could live outside SD, but it was a great place 10 years ago too. Don’t believe the hype.

One last thing, Oz seems about 18 months behind us in terms of RE pricing, denial and job loss, but its catching up quickly.

Josh

[EconProf]

I spent a month in Australia and New Zealand last year and decided it was the one area I would chose to live in outside the U.S. The people are great, property laws and courts decent, and the economy capitalist, so they will do fine in the long run.
Barnaby33 may be right about their stage in the bubble-popping cycle, and certainly knows their market from living there. I’d be more focused on the long run and have faith that their people and government will make for a bright future.
The Aussie’s dollar fall of about 30% makes their prices even more attractive now than one year ago. And yes, if you believe the US$ will fall in the years ahead, then Australian real estate should do well as a currency play.

[EconProf]

I spent a month in Australia and New Zealand last year and decided it was the one area I would chose to live in outside the U.S. The people are great, property laws and courts decent, and the economy capitalist, so they will do fine in the long run.
Barnaby33 may be right about their stage in the bubble-popping cycle, and certainly knows their market from living there. I’d be more focused on the long run and have faith that their people and government will make for a bright future.
The Aussie’s dollar fall of about 30% makes their prices even more attractive now than one year ago. And yes, if you believe the US$ will fall in the years ahead, then Australian real estate should do well as a currency play.

[EconProf]

I spent a month in Australia and New Zealand last year and decided it was the one area I would chose to live in outside the U.S. The people are great, property laws and courts decent, and the economy capitalist, so they will do fine in the long run.
Barnaby33 may be right about their stage in the bubble-popping cycle, and certainly knows their market from living there. I’d be more focused on the long run and have faith that their people and government will make for a bright future.
The Aussie’s dollar fall of about 30% makes their prices even more attractive now than one year ago. And yes, if you believe the US$ will fall in the years ahead, then Australian real estate should do well as a currency play.

[EconProf]

I spent a month in Australia and New Zealand last year and decided it was the one area I would chose to live in outside the U.S. The people are great, property laws and courts decent, and the economy capitalist, so they will do fine in the long run.
Barnaby33 may be right about their stage in the bubble-popping cycle, and certainly knows their market from living there. I’d be more focused on the long run and have faith that their people and government will make for a bright future.
The Aussie’s dollar fall of about 30% makes their prices even more attractive now than one year ago. And yes, if you believe the US$ will fall in the years ahead, then Australian real estate should do well as a currency play.

[Author]

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