Buisness Lease Vacancies

[DWCAP]

So, is this all gonna affect jobs, and if so, how much? The one weird thing about this downturn is that employment hasnt really fallen. Now it never really rebounded from the 2001 recession, so it doesnt have to fall that far. But still it has been supprising that unemployment has held up so well. Just looking forward and wondering.

[davelj]

I think the “official” jobs numbers are no better than the “official” inflation numbers that we’re force-fed.

First of all, I know there’s been a huge push over the last couple of years of people into the “no longer seeking work” category. Technically, these people are not unemployed where the stats are concerned.

Second, the “birth/death model” has been adding lots of jobs over the last year to sectors which are obviously shrinking. That’s currently reversing – even in the stats – but it’ll take several more months for that statistical illusion to get reversed.

Third, there’s the “realtor phenomenon.” I read recently that less than HALF of all those with real estate licenses in southern California actually recorded a sale in 2007. Half. Are those people still counted as employed? I’m betting that many of them are.

As with the inflation stats, I’d just take what the “official” number is and add 100 – 200 basis points. That’ll probably get you in the ballpark of reality.

[davelj]

I think the “official” jobs numbers are no better than the “official” inflation numbers that we’re force-fed.

First of all, I know there’s been a huge push over the last couple of years of people into the “no longer seeking work” category. Technically, these people are not unemployed where the stats are concerned.

Second, the “birth/death model” has been adding lots of jobs over the last year to sectors which are obviously shrinking. That’s currently reversing – even in the stats – but it’ll take several more months for that statistical illusion to get reversed.

Third, there’s the “realtor phenomenon.” I read recently that less than HALF of all those with real estate licenses in southern California actually recorded a sale in 2007. Half. Are those people still counted as employed? I’m betting that many of them are.

As with the inflation stats, I’d just take what the “official” number is and add 100 – 200 basis points. That’ll probably get you in the ballpark of reality.

[davelj]

I think the “official” jobs numbers are no better than the “official” inflation numbers that we’re force-fed.

First of all, I know there’s been a huge push over the last couple of years of people into the “no longer seeking work” category. Technically, these people are not unemployed where the stats are concerned.

Second, the “birth/death model” has been adding lots of jobs over the last year to sectors which are obviously shrinking. That’s currently reversing – even in the stats – but it’ll take several more months for that statistical illusion to get reversed.

Third, there’s the “realtor phenomenon.” I read recently that less than HALF of all those with real estate licenses in southern California actually recorded a sale in 2007. Half. Are those people still counted as employed? I’m betting that many of them are.

As with the inflation stats, I’d just take what the “official” number is and add 100 – 200 basis points. That’ll probably get you in the ballpark of reality.

[davelj]

I think the “official” jobs numbers are no better than the “official” inflation numbers that we’re force-fed.

First of all, I know there’s been a huge push over the last couple of years of people into the “no longer seeking work” category. Technically, these people are not unemployed where the stats are concerned.

Second, the “birth/death model” has been adding lots of jobs over the last year to sectors which are obviously shrinking. That’s currently reversing – even in the stats – but it’ll take several more months for that statistical illusion to get reversed.

Third, there’s the “realtor phenomenon.” I read recently that less than HALF of all those with real estate licenses in southern California actually recorded a sale in 2007. Half. Are those people still counted as employed? I’m betting that many of them are.

As with the inflation stats, I’d just take what the “official” number is and add 100 – 200 basis points. That’ll probably get you in the ballpark of reality.

[davelj]

I think the “official” jobs numbers are no better than the “official” inflation numbers that we’re force-fed.

First of all, I know there’s been a huge push over the last couple of years of people into the “no longer seeking work” category. Technically, these people are not unemployed where the stats are concerned.

Second, the “birth/death model” has been adding lots of jobs over the last year to sectors which are obviously shrinking. That’s currently reversing – even in the stats – but it’ll take several more months for that statistical illusion to get reversed.

Third, there’s the “realtor phenomenon.” I read recently that less than HALF of all those with real estate licenses in southern California actually recorded a sale in 2007. Half. Are those people still counted as employed? I’m betting that many of them are.

As with the inflation stats, I’d just take what the “official” number is and add 100 – 200 basis points. That’ll probably get you in the ballpark of reality.

[nostradamus]

I heard (I think on NPR) that the biggest job growth numbers were in government. Like we need more layers of corruption and council meetings on how to best raise their salaries.

I live/work near Sorrento Valley and there are tons of commercial vacancies. I work in a 6-story office building and less than half of it is occupied.

What’s the going ppsf in sv?

[nostradamus]

I heard (I think on NPR) that the biggest job growth numbers were in government. Like we need more layers of corruption and council meetings on how to best raise their salaries.

I live/work near Sorrento Valley and there are tons of commercial vacancies. I work in a 6-story office building and less than half of it is occupied.

What’s the going ppsf in sv?

[nostradamus]

I heard (I think on NPR) that the biggest job growth numbers were in government. Like we need more layers of corruption and council meetings on how to best raise their salaries.

I live/work near Sorrento Valley and there are tons of commercial vacancies. I work in a 6-story office building and less than half of it is occupied.

What’s the going ppsf in sv?

[nostradamus]

I heard (I think on NPR) that the biggest job growth numbers were in government. Like we need more layers of corruption and council meetings on how to best raise their salaries.

I live/work near Sorrento Valley and there are tons of commercial vacancies. I work in a 6-story office building and less than half of it is occupied.

What’s the going ppsf in sv?

[nostradamus]

I heard (I think on NPR) that the biggest job growth numbers were in government. Like we need more layers of corruption and council meetings on how to best raise their salaries.

I live/work near Sorrento Valley and there are tons of commercial vacancies. I work in a 6-story office building and less than half of it is occupied.

What’s the going ppsf in sv?

[sdnerd]

“I read recently that less than HALF of all those with real estate licenses in southern California actually recorded a sale in 2007. Half. Are those people still counted as employed? I’m betting that many of them are.”

I wouldn’t read too much into that. Getting a RE license isn’t like becoming a doctor or another highly trained professional.

Many people have gotten them, and simply move on to other careers. I know several people with licenses, and their career has nothing to do with RE.

[sdnerd]

“I read recently that less than HALF of all those with real estate licenses in southern California actually recorded a sale in 2007. Half. Are those people still counted as employed? I’m betting that many of them are.”

I wouldn’t read too much into that. Getting a RE license isn’t like becoming a doctor or another highly trained professional.

Many people have gotten them, and simply move on to other careers. I know several people with licenses, and their career has nothing to do with RE.

[sdnerd]

“I read recently that less than HALF of all those with real estate licenses in southern California actually recorded a sale in 2007. Half. Are those people still counted as employed? I’m betting that many of them are.”

I wouldn’t read too much into that. Getting a RE license isn’t like becoming a doctor or another highly trained professional.

Many people have gotten them, and simply move on to other careers. I know several people with licenses, and their career has nothing to do with RE.

[sdnerd]

“I read recently that less than HALF of all those with real estate licenses in southern California actually recorded a sale in 2007. Half. Are those people still counted as employed? I’m betting that many of them are.”

I wouldn’t read too much into that. Getting a RE license isn’t like becoming a doctor or another highly trained professional.

Many people have gotten them, and simply move on to other careers. I know several people with licenses, and their career has nothing to do with RE.

[Author]

Posts