Boomer Bomb

[Peace]

I was listening to a hearing on C-Span a few months back about the state of the economy, one of the surprises to everyone was that in projecting the future it was assumed that there were a lot of baby boomers sitting on a lot of equity, but research proved that WRONG – much to everyone’s dismay was that baby boomers have tapped into their equity as severely as all the population. The forecast for the future state of the economy had been betting on the baby boomers having equity, and that had many of the “experts” at the hearing shaking in their boots.

Anyway, you who are whippersnappers, don’t assume that the baby boomer homeowners are sitting on a pile of equity. I personnally know many who have had to spend the bulk of it helping their adult kids – another trickle down of this insane economy.

[DWCAP]

Just a very random example of what 4plex is saying is true.

I moved from Clairmont to Mira Mesa in the winter of 06. I began walking around my neighborhood to try to learn the area in a way alot better than you can get in a car. I do this in every area I live in.
I met a couple having a garage sale, selling most everything but the kitchen sink. Wondering if this was one of those mystical “repo” sales I had heard so much about on late night infomershals, I started talking to them. Nope, they were older boomers, 58 and 55 I think, who were the houses original owners from 1986. They had bought the house for something like 120k, and just sold for 500k.

1) They were terribly disapointed that they ONLY got 500k. They felt the house was easily worth 550-600k but they had to move now so couldnt sit it out any longer.

2) They were moving to the midwest to a house closer to the kids that was gonna cost them 85k. It was time to “retire someplace we can afford.”

This was their retirment plan. They were cashing out. They got out just in time, i think this was like March of 07. I dont think alot of their long time neighbors are going to be so lucky.
So 4plex I think you are correct in your revision of your post. They may on paper have equity and be ok. But they are nowhere near as rich as they had counted on as in their minds this money had already been allocated to retirment and “spent” (ie they couldnt blow it). Anything less than peak pricing was crushing.
More and more retiries will have to sell into a depressing market inorder to retire, with the ones to the door first getting the biggest crumbs left. Are alot of boomers staying put, sure, ofcourse. But the boomers are a big generation, and not everyone needs to try for the door inmass to kill a weak market.

In short, I do think this theory has legs, even if not every boomer is planning on selling. The demand just wont be there as boomers try to get out, and the supply will be of the must sell kind, even if it isnt so on paper.

[DWCAP]

Just a very random example of what 4plex is saying is true.

I moved from Clairmont to Mira Mesa in the winter of 06. I began walking around my neighborhood to try to learn the area in a way alot better than you can get in a car. I do this in every area I live in.
I met a couple having a garage sale, selling most everything but the kitchen sink. Wondering if this was one of those mystical “repo” sales I had heard so much about on late night infomershals, I started talking to them. Nope, they were older boomers, 58 and 55 I think, who were the houses original owners from 1986. They had bought the house for something like 120k, and just sold for 500k.

1) They were terribly disapointed that they ONLY got 500k. They felt the house was easily worth 550-600k but they had to move now so couldnt sit it out any longer.

2) They were moving to the midwest to a house closer to the kids that was gonna cost them 85k. It was time to “retire someplace we can afford.”

This was their retirment plan. They were cashing out. They got out just in time, i think this was like March of 07. I dont think alot of their long time neighbors are going to be so lucky.
So 4plex I think you are correct in your revision of your post. They may on paper have equity and be ok. But they are nowhere near as rich as they had counted on as in their minds this money had already been allocated to retirment and “spent” (ie they couldnt blow it). Anything less than peak pricing was crushing.
More and more retiries will have to sell into a depressing market inorder to retire, with the ones to the door first getting the biggest crumbs left. Are alot of boomers staying put, sure, ofcourse. But the boomers are a big generation, and not everyone needs to try for the door inmass to kill a weak market.

In short, I do think this theory has legs, even if not every boomer is planning on selling. The demand just wont be there as boomers try to get out, and the supply will be of the must sell kind, even if it isnt so on paper.

[DWCAP]

Just a very random example of what 4plex is saying is true.

I moved from Clairmont to Mira Mesa in the winter of 06. I began walking around my neighborhood to try to learn the area in a way alot better than you can get in a car. I do this in every area I live in.
I met a couple having a garage sale, selling most everything but the kitchen sink. Wondering if this was one of those mystical “repo” sales I had heard so much about on late night infomershals, I started talking to them. Nope, they were older boomers, 58 and 55 I think, who were the houses original owners from 1986. They had bought the house for something like 120k, and just sold for 500k.

1) They were terribly disapointed that they ONLY got 500k. They felt the house was easily worth 550-600k but they had to move now so couldnt sit it out any longer.

2) They were moving to the midwest to a house closer to the kids that was gonna cost them 85k. It was time to “retire someplace we can afford.”

This was their retirment plan. They were cashing out. They got out just in time, i think this was like March of 07. I dont think alot of their long time neighbors are going to be so lucky.
So 4plex I think you are correct in your revision of your post. They may on paper have equity and be ok. But they are nowhere near as rich as they had counted on as in their minds this money had already been allocated to retirment and “spent” (ie they couldnt blow it). Anything less than peak pricing was crushing.
More and more retiries will have to sell into a depressing market inorder to retire, with the ones to the door first getting the biggest crumbs left. Are alot of boomers staying put, sure, ofcourse. But the boomers are a big generation, and not everyone needs to try for the door inmass to kill a weak market.

In short, I do think this theory has legs, even if not every boomer is planning on selling. The demand just wont be there as boomers try to get out, and the supply will be of the must sell kind, even if it isnt so on paper.

[DWCAP]

Just a very random example of what 4plex is saying is true.

I moved from Clairmont to Mira Mesa in the winter of 06. I began walking around my neighborhood to try to learn the area in a way alot better than you can get in a car. I do this in every area I live in.
I met a couple having a garage sale, selling most everything but the kitchen sink. Wondering if this was one of those mystical “repo” sales I had heard so much about on late night infomershals, I started talking to them. Nope, they were older boomers, 58 and 55 I think, who were the houses original owners from 1986. They had bought the house for something like 120k, and just sold for 500k.

1) They were terribly disapointed that they ONLY got 500k. They felt the house was easily worth 550-600k but they had to move now so couldnt sit it out any longer.

2) They were moving to the midwest to a house closer to the kids that was gonna cost them 85k. It was time to “retire someplace we can afford.”

This was their retirment plan. They were cashing out. They got out just in time, i think this was like March of 07. I dont think alot of their long time neighbors are going to be so lucky.
So 4plex I think you are correct in your revision of your post. They may on paper have equity and be ok. But they are nowhere near as rich as they had counted on as in their minds this money had already been allocated to retirment and “spent” (ie they couldnt blow it). Anything less than peak pricing was crushing.
More and more retiries will have to sell into a depressing market inorder to retire, with the ones to the door first getting the biggest crumbs left. Are alot of boomers staying put, sure, ofcourse. But the boomers are a big generation, and not everyone needs to try for the door inmass to kill a weak market.

In short, I do think this theory has legs, even if not every boomer is planning on selling. The demand just wont be there as boomers try to get out, and the supply will be of the must sell kind, even if it isnt so on paper.

[DWCAP]

Just a very random example of what 4plex is saying is true.

I moved from Clairmont to Mira Mesa in the winter of 06. I began walking around my neighborhood to try to learn the area in a way alot better than you can get in a car. I do this in every area I live in.
I met a couple having a garage sale, selling most everything but the kitchen sink. Wondering if this was one of those mystical “repo” sales I had heard so much about on late night infomershals, I started talking to them. Nope, they were older boomers, 58 and 55 I think, who were the houses original owners from 1986. They had bought the house for something like 120k, and just sold for 500k.

1) They were terribly disapointed that they ONLY got 500k. They felt the house was easily worth 550-600k but they had to move now so couldnt sit it out any longer.

2) They were moving to the midwest to a house closer to the kids that was gonna cost them 85k. It was time to “retire someplace we can afford.”

This was their retirment plan. They were cashing out. They got out just in time, i think this was like March of 07. I dont think alot of their long time neighbors are going to be so lucky.
So 4plex I think you are correct in your revision of your post. They may on paper have equity and be ok. But they are nowhere near as rich as they had counted on as in their minds this money had already been allocated to retirment and “spent” (ie they couldnt blow it). Anything less than peak pricing was crushing.
More and more retiries will have to sell into a depressing market inorder to retire, with the ones to the door first getting the biggest crumbs left. Are alot of boomers staying put, sure, ofcourse. But the boomers are a big generation, and not everyone needs to try for the door inmass to kill a weak market.

In short, I do think this theory has legs, even if not every boomer is planning on selling. The demand just wont be there as boomers try to get out, and the supply will be of the must sell kind, even if it isnt so on paper.

[Eugene]

States with crossover at 55 are undesirable for retirement (bad climate). States with crossover at 75 are popular retirement destinations. Starting at 55, baby boomers from New Jersey cash out their equity and move to Florida. Starting at 75, baby boomers from Florida sell their houses and move to retirement homes (or die).

The only exception is California which is nice climate-wise but so expensive that few people can afford to retire there.

Fortunately now we have a lot of affordable inventory in parts of the country with dry warm climate – Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin counties.

[Eugene]

States with crossover at 55 are undesirable for retirement (bad climate). States with crossover at 75 are popular retirement destinations. Starting at 55, baby boomers from New Jersey cash out their equity and move to Florida. Starting at 75, baby boomers from Florida sell their houses and move to retirement homes (or die).

The only exception is California which is nice climate-wise but so expensive that few people can afford to retire there.

Fortunately now we have a lot of affordable inventory in parts of the country with dry warm climate – Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin counties.

[Eugene]

States with crossover at 55 are undesirable for retirement (bad climate). States with crossover at 75 are popular retirement destinations. Starting at 55, baby boomers from New Jersey cash out their equity and move to Florida. Starting at 75, baby boomers from Florida sell their houses and move to retirement homes (or die).

The only exception is California which is nice climate-wise but so expensive that few people can afford to retire there.

Fortunately now we have a lot of affordable inventory in parts of the country with dry warm climate – Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin counties.

[Eugene]

States with crossover at 55 are undesirable for retirement (bad climate). States with crossover at 75 are popular retirement destinations. Starting at 55, baby boomers from New Jersey cash out their equity and move to Florida. Starting at 75, baby boomers from Florida sell their houses and move to retirement homes (or die).

The only exception is California which is nice climate-wise but so expensive that few people can afford to retire there.

Fortunately now we have a lot of affordable inventory in parts of the country with dry warm climate – Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin counties.

[Eugene]

States with crossover at 55 are undesirable for retirement (bad climate). States with crossover at 75 are popular retirement destinations. Starting at 55, baby boomers from New Jersey cash out their equity and move to Florida. Starting at 75, baby boomers from Florida sell their houses and move to retirement homes (or die).

The only exception is California which is nice climate-wise but so expensive that few people can afford to retire there.

Fortunately now we have a lot of affordable inventory in parts of the country with dry warm climate – Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin counties.

[patientlywaiting]

Interesting post 4plex.

I have to wonder what boomers will do in the suburbs once they can’t drive anymore. In this highly mobile society, children live far from their parents. Parents will have to sell to live closer to their children; or children will have to make sacrifices to take care of their parents.

One thing is sure about the boomers. They changed our society when they were born. And they will change society again when they die.

I would never want to retire in a sprawl that is Riverside. I personally think the towns of Southern Europe are great places to retire. Live in small house (or apartment) near a walkable town center were you can go to the grocery store without a car. You can make friends and meet them at the local cafe and restaurants everyday. Any suggestion for such a place in America?

[patientlywaiting]

Interesting post 4plex.

I have to wonder what boomers will do in the suburbs once they can’t drive anymore. In this highly mobile society, children live far from their parents. Parents will have to sell to live closer to their children; or children will have to make sacrifices to take care of their parents.

One thing is sure about the boomers. They changed our society when they were born. And they will change society again when they die.

I would never want to retire in a sprawl that is Riverside. I personally think the towns of Southern Europe are great places to retire. Live in small house (or apartment) near a walkable town center were you can go to the grocery store without a car. You can make friends and meet them at the local cafe and restaurants everyday. Any suggestion for such a place in America?

[patientlywaiting]

Interesting post 4plex.

I have to wonder what boomers will do in the suburbs once they can’t drive anymore. In this highly mobile society, children live far from their parents. Parents will have to sell to live closer to their children; or children will have to make sacrifices to take care of their parents.

One thing is sure about the boomers. They changed our society when they were born. And they will change society again when they die.

I would never want to retire in a sprawl that is Riverside. I personally think the towns of Southern Europe are great places to retire. Live in small house (or apartment) near a walkable town center were you can go to the grocery store without a car. You can make friends and meet them at the local cafe and restaurants everyday. Any suggestion for such a place in America?

[patientlywaiting]

Interesting post 4plex.

I have to wonder what boomers will do in the suburbs once they can’t drive anymore. In this highly mobile society, children live far from their parents. Parents will have to sell to live closer to their children; or children will have to make sacrifices to take care of their parents.

One thing is sure about the boomers. They changed our society when they were born. And they will change society again when they die.

I would never want to retire in a sprawl that is Riverside. I personally think the towns of Southern Europe are great places to retire. Live in small house (or apartment) near a walkable town center were you can go to the grocery store without a car. You can make friends and meet them at the local cafe and restaurants everyday. Any suggestion for such a place in America?

[Author]

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