Bailout – What does it mean for real estate for us waiting?

[patientrenter]

TheBreeze wrote: “It’s pretty clear they would like to choose the inflation route. However, I don’t think $700 billion is going to do it.”

Yes. We should expect lots more where that $700 billion came from.

[HarryBosch]

I may not watch all the trends but one trend that I’ve noticed is the growing popularity of the Dave Ramsey philosophy. I’ve also been on his web site and been amongst those forum participants. I see more and more people getting on the bandwagon of paying their debts off 100%, paying off their mortgages and planning to buy a house with the least amount of borrowed money.

I think that your average citizen, middle class America, doesn’t want to finance the American dream anymore. With lending already tightened and people getting smarter about not wanting to be a slave to the lender I think that demand for credit in general is going to decrease. With that in mind people will not want to pay the recently ridiculous high prices for houses and will not want ridiculous mortgages in the 300’s and 400’s of thousands that we saw during the last 10-15 years. Prices will continue to drop.

This is a paradigm shifting of values in America. A realization that having money in the bank is more important than behaving as if you had money in the bank.

But this realization is important not because it is being realized by isolated individuals but that it is morphing into group-think, into a new (virtual) demographic with its own mantras for getting out and staying out of debt.

[HarryBosch]

I may not watch all the trends but one trend that I’ve noticed is the growing popularity of the Dave Ramsey philosophy. I’ve also been on his web site and been amongst those forum participants. I see more and more people getting on the bandwagon of paying their debts off 100%, paying off their mortgages and planning to buy a house with the least amount of borrowed money.

I think that your average citizen, middle class America, doesn’t want to finance the American dream anymore. With lending already tightened and people getting smarter about not wanting to be a slave to the lender I think that demand for credit in general is going to decrease. With that in mind people will not want to pay the recently ridiculous high prices for houses and will not want ridiculous mortgages in the 300’s and 400’s of thousands that we saw during the last 10-15 years. Prices will continue to drop.

This is a paradigm shifting of values in America. A realization that having money in the bank is more important than behaving as if you had money in the bank.

But this realization is important not because it is being realized by isolated individuals but that it is morphing into group-think, into a new (virtual) demographic with its own mantras for getting out and staying out of debt.

[HarryBosch]

I may not watch all the trends but one trend that I’ve noticed is the growing popularity of the Dave Ramsey philosophy. I’ve also been on his web site and been amongst those forum participants. I see more and more people getting on the bandwagon of paying their debts off 100%, paying off their mortgages and planning to buy a house with the least amount of borrowed money.

I think that your average citizen, middle class America, doesn’t want to finance the American dream anymore. With lending already tightened and people getting smarter about not wanting to be a slave to the lender I think that demand for credit in general is going to decrease. With that in mind people will not want to pay the recently ridiculous high prices for houses and will not want ridiculous mortgages in the 300’s and 400’s of thousands that we saw during the last 10-15 years. Prices will continue to drop.

This is a paradigm shifting of values in America. A realization that having money in the bank is more important than behaving as if you had money in the bank.

But this realization is important not because it is being realized by isolated individuals but that it is morphing into group-think, into a new (virtual) demographic with its own mantras for getting out and staying out of debt.

[HarryBosch]

I may not watch all the trends but one trend that I’ve noticed is the growing popularity of the Dave Ramsey philosophy. I’ve also been on his web site and been amongst those forum participants. I see more and more people getting on the bandwagon of paying their debts off 100%, paying off their mortgages and planning to buy a house with the least amount of borrowed money.

I think that your average citizen, middle class America, doesn’t want to finance the American dream anymore. With lending already tightened and people getting smarter about not wanting to be a slave to the lender I think that demand for credit in general is going to decrease. With that in mind people will not want to pay the recently ridiculous high prices for houses and will not want ridiculous mortgages in the 300’s and 400’s of thousands that we saw during the last 10-15 years. Prices will continue to drop.

This is a paradigm shifting of values in America. A realization that having money in the bank is more important than behaving as if you had money in the bank.

But this realization is important not because it is being realized by isolated individuals but that it is morphing into group-think, into a new (virtual) demographic with its own mantras for getting out and staying out of debt.

[HarryBosch]

I may not watch all the trends but one trend that I’ve noticed is the growing popularity of the Dave Ramsey philosophy. I’ve also been on his web site and been amongst those forum participants. I see more and more people getting on the bandwagon of paying their debts off 100%, paying off their mortgages and planning to buy a house with the least amount of borrowed money.

I think that your average citizen, middle class America, doesn’t want to finance the American dream anymore. With lending already tightened and people getting smarter about not wanting to be a slave to the lender I think that demand for credit in general is going to decrease. With that in mind people will not want to pay the recently ridiculous high prices for houses and will not want ridiculous mortgages in the 300’s and 400’s of thousands that we saw during the last 10-15 years. Prices will continue to drop.

This is a paradigm shifting of values in America. A realization that having money in the bank is more important than behaving as if you had money in the bank.

But this realization is important not because it is being realized by isolated individuals but that it is morphing into group-think, into a new (virtual) demographic with its own mantras for getting out and staying out of debt.

[SD Realtor]

Harry I may go to Ramseys site and check it out. I like his show alot just because it is nice to hear about people getting out of debt rather then in debt.

Huckleberry I agree I do not think the governments efforts will halt price declines but the efforts could indeed change the rate of decline, possibly substantially.

One thing I think is true is that in a highly regulatory/socialized environment, those that are well connected tend to do much better then the average consumer.

[SD Realtor]

Harry I may go to Ramseys site and check it out. I like his show alot just because it is nice to hear about people getting out of debt rather then in debt.

Huckleberry I agree I do not think the governments efforts will halt price declines but the efforts could indeed change the rate of decline, possibly substantially.

One thing I think is true is that in a highly regulatory/socialized environment, those that are well connected tend to do much better then the average consumer.

[SD Realtor]

Harry I may go to Ramseys site and check it out. I like his show alot just because it is nice to hear about people getting out of debt rather then in debt.

Huckleberry I agree I do not think the governments efforts will halt price declines but the efforts could indeed change the rate of decline, possibly substantially.

One thing I think is true is that in a highly regulatory/socialized environment, those that are well connected tend to do much better then the average consumer.

[SD Realtor]

Harry I may go to Ramseys site and check it out. I like his show alot just because it is nice to hear about people getting out of debt rather then in debt.

Huckleberry I agree I do not think the governments efforts will halt price declines but the efforts could indeed change the rate of decline, possibly substantially.

One thing I think is true is that in a highly regulatory/socialized environment, those that are well connected tend to do much better then the average consumer.

[SD Realtor]

Harry I may go to Ramseys site and check it out. I like his show alot just because it is nice to hear about people getting out of debt rather then in debt.

Huckleberry I agree I do not think the governments efforts will halt price declines but the efforts could indeed change the rate of decline, possibly substantially.

One thing I think is true is that in a highly regulatory/socialized environment, those that are well connected tend to do much better then the average consumer.

[stockstradr]

Buying a house>

OK, go ahead read my opinion below and LAUGH as you’re all probably thinking about year 2012-2014 for your next home purchase.

Here is why my wife and I plan to buy a home within nine months.

1a) In Silicon Valley home prices are dropping so fast and rents rising so fast that MANY properties are now cash flow positive for renting (based on say 20% down with 30-year fixed)

If your renter is paying off your mortgage, what difference does it make if the value of the home drops a bit more in the few years following your purchase?

1b) We are currently sending our landlord $31,000/year in rent, which I prefer to be using to pay off a mortgage. I also prefer to be getting those tax benefits of paying mortgage interest.

2) This recession and its deflationary forces will push the CPI down near zero, or into negative territory within 9-12 months. With recession going deeper the Fed will again and again lower rates. CONCLUSION: the coming year will offer great opportunity to get much lower mortgage rates.

3) Housing lobby will be successful in passing bill loaded with bonuses for anyone who buys home. We’re talking $15,000 tax credits…etc.

4) As we move out of this recession/depression, inflation and mortgage rates will skyrocket above 10% (yes, actually getting to 10% could take a few years). So buy your home with a fixed rate and then pay the banker back in ever more worthless dollars. We are not buying cash-only so we gotta think about housing bottoms more in terms of actual mortgage payment.

5) Within nine months, housing price declines will be reaching the point of diminishing declines. My theory is that the next nine months will show home prices declining another big step down as unemployment soars (Roubini predicts unemployment rates MIN 8% countrywide and at least 10% in CA). Yet, beyond nine months the additional home price decline will be moderate (5%?)

However, for those able to make their next home purchase as cash-only, then I agree you should wait until the bottom which I expect in 2012-2014

[stockstradr]

Buying a house>

OK, go ahead read my opinion below and LAUGH as you’re all probably thinking about year 2012-2014 for your next home purchase.

Here is why my wife and I plan to buy a home within nine months.

1a) In Silicon Valley home prices are dropping so fast and rents rising so fast that MANY properties are now cash flow positive for renting (based on say 20% down with 30-year fixed)

If your renter is paying off your mortgage, what difference does it make if the value of the home drops a bit more in the few years following your purchase?

1b) We are currently sending our landlord $31,000/year in rent, which I prefer to be using to pay off a mortgage. I also prefer to be getting those tax benefits of paying mortgage interest.

2) This recession and its deflationary forces will push the CPI down near zero, or into negative territory within 9-12 months. With recession going deeper the Fed will again and again lower rates. CONCLUSION: the coming year will offer great opportunity to get much lower mortgage rates.

3) Housing lobby will be successful in passing bill loaded with bonuses for anyone who buys home. We’re talking $15,000 tax credits…etc.

4) As we move out of this recession/depression, inflation and mortgage rates will skyrocket above 10% (yes, actually getting to 10% could take a few years). So buy your home with a fixed rate and then pay the banker back in ever more worthless dollars. We are not buying cash-only so we gotta think about housing bottoms more in terms of actual mortgage payment.

5) Within nine months, housing price declines will be reaching the point of diminishing declines. My theory is that the next nine months will show home prices declining another big step down as unemployment soars (Roubini predicts unemployment rates MIN 8% countrywide and at least 10% in CA). Yet, beyond nine months the additional home price decline will be moderate (5%?)

However, for those able to make their next home purchase as cash-only, then I agree you should wait until the bottom which I expect in 2012-2014

[stockstradr]

Buying a house>

OK, go ahead read my opinion below and LAUGH as you’re all probably thinking about year 2012-2014 for your next home purchase.

Here is why my wife and I plan to buy a home within nine months.

1a) In Silicon Valley home prices are dropping so fast and rents rising so fast that MANY properties are now cash flow positive for renting (based on say 20% down with 30-year fixed)

If your renter is paying off your mortgage, what difference does it make if the value of the home drops a bit more in the few years following your purchase?

1b) We are currently sending our landlord $31,000/year in rent, which I prefer to be using to pay off a mortgage. I also prefer to be getting those tax benefits of paying mortgage interest.

2) This recession and its deflationary forces will push the CPI down near zero, or into negative territory within 9-12 months. With recession going deeper the Fed will again and again lower rates. CONCLUSION: the coming year will offer great opportunity to get much lower mortgage rates.

3) Housing lobby will be successful in passing bill loaded with bonuses for anyone who buys home. We’re talking $15,000 tax credits…etc.

4) As we move out of this recession/depression, inflation and mortgage rates will skyrocket above 10% (yes, actually getting to 10% could take a few years). So buy your home with a fixed rate and then pay the banker back in ever more worthless dollars. We are not buying cash-only so we gotta think about housing bottoms more in terms of actual mortgage payment.

5) Within nine months, housing price declines will be reaching the point of diminishing declines. My theory is that the next nine months will show home prices declining another big step down as unemployment soars (Roubini predicts unemployment rates MIN 8% countrywide and at least 10% in CA). Yet, beyond nine months the additional home price decline will be moderate (5%?)

However, for those able to make their next home purchase as cash-only, then I agree you should wait until the bottom which I expect in 2012-2014

[stockstradr]

Buying a house>

OK, go ahead read my opinion below and LAUGH as you’re all probably thinking about year 2012-2014 for your next home purchase.

Here is why my wife and I plan to buy a home within nine months.

1a) In Silicon Valley home prices are dropping so fast and rents rising so fast that MANY properties are now cash flow positive for renting (based on say 20% down with 30-year fixed)

If your renter is paying off your mortgage, what difference does it make if the value of the home drops a bit more in the few years following your purchase?

1b) We are currently sending our landlord $31,000/year in rent, which I prefer to be using to pay off a mortgage. I also prefer to be getting those tax benefits of paying mortgage interest.

2) This recession and its deflationary forces will push the CPI down near zero, or into negative territory within 9-12 months. With recession going deeper the Fed will again and again lower rates. CONCLUSION: the coming year will offer great opportunity to get much lower mortgage rates.

3) Housing lobby will be successful in passing bill loaded with bonuses for anyone who buys home. We’re talking $15,000 tax credits…etc.

4) As we move out of this recession/depression, inflation and mortgage rates will skyrocket above 10% (yes, actually getting to 10% could take a few years). So buy your home with a fixed rate and then pay the banker back in ever more worthless dollars. We are not buying cash-only so we gotta think about housing bottoms more in terms of actual mortgage payment.

5) Within nine months, housing price declines will be reaching the point of diminishing declines. My theory is that the next nine months will show home prices declining another big step down as unemployment soars (Roubini predicts unemployment rates MIN 8% countrywide and at least 10% in CA). Yet, beyond nine months the additional home price decline will be moderate (5%?)

However, for those able to make their next home purchase as cash-only, then I agree you should wait until the bottom which I expect in 2012-2014

[Author]

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