Avaron at Del Sur Slashes Prices

[an]

[quote=ocrenter]
there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?[/quote]
How do you know this home didn’t have any of those upgrades built into the house? I can see landscaping being extra ad on later, but shutters, usually, people get that upgrade from the lender. Especially people in this price range. They don’t have the time and energy to shop around aftermarket. Talking about landscaping, the front hard looks dead and the backyard is just hardscape. So, lets say it cost them $100k to do the backyard hardscape, it would still only give this house ~12-15% premium. So, 12-15% premium would bring the 2000 price to be around $670k-$690k.

This was built as a luxury home, so a lot of upgrades might be built into the house when it was first built, so as you said, some of the best one went for $1.77M. I assume those are the ones w/ 30000 sq-ft lot in the best location. This one has one of the worse location, hence the 2007 sold price. Wasn’t this home sold for $1.21M.

OK, if you’re so adamant about not using Palomino house as referent point, then lets use the Tea Tree house. As you said they’re very similar in built quality. However, the Tea Tree house is not backing up to Camino del Sur. Back in 2007, the Rising River was sold for $1.21M while the Tea Tree house were going for closer to $1.6-1.7M (it already have all the premium built in, since it was resale in 2007). So, add your $170k in upgrades to the Rising River house, 2007 price would be around $1.7M. Which still put it at around 15-20% premium when comparing the 2 properties. So, back in 2000, the Tea Tree sold for $730k, add in landscaping, would put it at around $830k, then subtract 15-20%. We would then have $664k-$705k. That’s where I’d put this house 2000 price to be, not $800k.

[sdrealtor]

Just checked lot sizes per tax records for all MLS sales on Rising River. Found 12 homes with 9 of them having lots between 10K and 14K. There was a 16K, an 18K and a 20K also but all neighborhoods have a few exceptional lots. Lot size on Rising River house in question was 12,007 sq ft.

Just checked lots sizes on Silver Gum and everyone was between .5 and .65 acres (that is 22,000 to 29,000 sq ft). The homes were also several hundred sq ft larger.

Throw in the poor location and to say the Rising River sale was a 2000 price is a real stretch. Not saying it wont get there but its not there yet.

Next question.

[sdrealtor]

Just checked lot sizes per tax records for all MLS sales on Rising River. Found 12 homes with 9 of them having lots between 10K and 14K. There was a 16K, an 18K and a 20K also but all neighborhoods have a few exceptional lots. Lot size on Rising River house in question was 12,007 sq ft.

Just checked lots sizes on Silver Gum and everyone was between .5 and .65 acres (that is 22,000 to 29,000 sq ft). The homes were also several hundred sq ft larger.

Throw in the poor location and to say the Rising River sale was a 2000 price is a real stretch. Not saying it wont get there but its not there yet.

Next question.

[sdrealtor]

Just checked lot sizes per tax records for all MLS sales on Rising River. Found 12 homes with 9 of them having lots between 10K and 14K. There was a 16K, an 18K and a 20K also but all neighborhoods have a few exceptional lots. Lot size on Rising River house in question was 12,007 sq ft.

Just checked lots sizes on Silver Gum and everyone was between .5 and .65 acres (that is 22,000 to 29,000 sq ft). The homes were also several hundred sq ft larger.

Throw in the poor location and to say the Rising River sale was a 2000 price is a real stretch. Not saying it wont get there but its not there yet.

Next question.

[sdrealtor]

Just checked lot sizes per tax records for all MLS sales on Rising River. Found 12 homes with 9 of them having lots between 10K and 14K. There was a 16K, an 18K and a 20K also but all neighborhoods have a few exceptional lots. Lot size on Rising River house in question was 12,007 sq ft.

Just checked lots sizes on Silver Gum and everyone was between .5 and .65 acres (that is 22,000 to 29,000 sq ft). The homes were also several hundred sq ft larger.

Throw in the poor location and to say the Rising River sale was a 2000 price is a real stretch. Not saying it wont get there but its not there yet.

Next question.

[sdrealtor]

Just checked lot sizes per tax records for all MLS sales on Rising River. Found 12 homes with 9 of them having lots between 10K and 14K. There was a 16K, an 18K and a 20K also but all neighborhoods have a few exceptional lots. Lot size on Rising River house in question was 12,007 sq ft.

Just checked lots sizes on Silver Gum and everyone was between .5 and .65 acres (that is 22,000 to 29,000 sq ft). The homes were also several hundred sq ft larger.

Throw in the poor location and to say the Rising River sale was a 2000 price is a real stretch. Not saying it wont get there but its not there yet.

Next question.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Eugene][quote=temeculaguy]
oc, speaking of Eugene, he freaking nailed like three predictions from two years ago that I found on some old threads, I was gonna bump them for fun. Then he nails the stock bottom, and as you pointed out, 2000 pricing, Eugene, you are the new BUGS, “you are my boy, blue.”[/quote]

Ha ha, thanks, but I wasn’t even here two years ago, you must be confusing me with someone else. Also, I missed the stock bottom, but it seems that I was correct when I was telling people to buy in January rather than wait for S&P to hit 600.[/quote]

Okay, I may have gotten the time frame wrong, they were more recent, but still a ways back and I can’t find them all now. BTW you are just a few weeks short of 2 years on here, don’t kid yourself, hobby becomes obsession after one year, I was rounding off.

Your prediction for 2009 of $3 gas, check.
S&P 1200, looking good.
Unemployment peaking Q2 then declining, so far so good.
Real estate recovery in areas with medians below 500k, looks that way

http://piggington.com/now_start_predictions_for_2009#comment-101917

And even though this one was recent

http://piggington.com/time_to_rebuy_sampp500#comment-123420

I probably dwelled on it because you were one of the only ones who thought homebuilders would rise in value. I wake up in the middle of the night screaming since I pussied out on buying some homebuilder stocks I knew would pop. My HOV prediction is now over 800% up, but I don’t own it, if it keeps going up I’m gonna have to switch from Cabernet to Ambien to get through the night.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Eugene][quote=temeculaguy]
oc, speaking of Eugene, he freaking nailed like three predictions from two years ago that I found on some old threads, I was gonna bump them for fun. Then he nails the stock bottom, and as you pointed out, 2000 pricing, Eugene, you are the new BUGS, “you are my boy, blue.”[/quote]

Ha ha, thanks, but I wasn’t even here two years ago, you must be confusing me with someone else. Also, I missed the stock bottom, but it seems that I was correct when I was telling people to buy in January rather than wait for S&P to hit 600.[/quote]

Okay, I may have gotten the time frame wrong, they were more recent, but still a ways back and I can’t find them all now. BTW you are just a few weeks short of 2 years on here, don’t kid yourself, hobby becomes obsession after one year, I was rounding off.

Your prediction for 2009 of $3 gas, check.
S&P 1200, looking good.
Unemployment peaking Q2 then declining, so far so good.
Real estate recovery in areas with medians below 500k, looks that way

http://piggington.com/now_start_predictions_for_2009#comment-101917

And even though this one was recent

http://piggington.com/time_to_rebuy_sampp500#comment-123420

I probably dwelled on it because you were one of the only ones who thought homebuilders would rise in value. I wake up in the middle of the night screaming since I pussied out on buying some homebuilder stocks I knew would pop. My HOV prediction is now over 800% up, but I don’t own it, if it keeps going up I’m gonna have to switch from Cabernet to Ambien to get through the night.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Eugene][quote=temeculaguy]
oc, speaking of Eugene, he freaking nailed like three predictions from two years ago that I found on some old threads, I was gonna bump them for fun. Then he nails the stock bottom, and as you pointed out, 2000 pricing, Eugene, you are the new BUGS, “you are my boy, blue.”[/quote]

Ha ha, thanks, but I wasn’t even here two years ago, you must be confusing me with someone else. Also, I missed the stock bottom, but it seems that I was correct when I was telling people to buy in January rather than wait for S&P to hit 600.[/quote]

Okay, I may have gotten the time frame wrong, they were more recent, but still a ways back and I can’t find them all now. BTW you are just a few weeks short of 2 years on here, don’t kid yourself, hobby becomes obsession after one year, I was rounding off.

Your prediction for 2009 of $3 gas, check.
S&P 1200, looking good.
Unemployment peaking Q2 then declining, so far so good.
Real estate recovery in areas with medians below 500k, looks that way

http://piggington.com/now_start_predictions_for_2009#comment-101917

And even though this one was recent

http://piggington.com/time_to_rebuy_sampp500#comment-123420

I probably dwelled on it because you were one of the only ones who thought homebuilders would rise in value. I wake up in the middle of the night screaming since I pussied out on buying some homebuilder stocks I knew would pop. My HOV prediction is now over 800% up, but I don’t own it, if it keeps going up I’m gonna have to switch from Cabernet to Ambien to get through the night.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Eugene][quote=temeculaguy]
oc, speaking of Eugene, he freaking nailed like three predictions from two years ago that I found on some old threads, I was gonna bump them for fun. Then he nails the stock bottom, and as you pointed out, 2000 pricing, Eugene, you are the new BUGS, “you are my boy, blue.”[/quote]

Ha ha, thanks, but I wasn’t even here two years ago, you must be confusing me with someone else. Also, I missed the stock bottom, but it seems that I was correct when I was telling people to buy in January rather than wait for S&P to hit 600.[/quote]

Okay, I may have gotten the time frame wrong, they were more recent, but still a ways back and I can’t find them all now. BTW you are just a few weeks short of 2 years on here, don’t kid yourself, hobby becomes obsession after one year, I was rounding off.

Your prediction for 2009 of $3 gas, check.
S&P 1200, looking good.
Unemployment peaking Q2 then declining, so far so good.
Real estate recovery in areas with medians below 500k, looks that way

http://piggington.com/now_start_predictions_for_2009#comment-101917

And even though this one was recent

http://piggington.com/time_to_rebuy_sampp500#comment-123420

I probably dwelled on it because you were one of the only ones who thought homebuilders would rise in value. I wake up in the middle of the night screaming since I pussied out on buying some homebuilder stocks I knew would pop. My HOV prediction is now over 800% up, but I don’t own it, if it keeps going up I’m gonna have to switch from Cabernet to Ambien to get through the night.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Eugene][quote=temeculaguy]
oc, speaking of Eugene, he freaking nailed like three predictions from two years ago that I found on some old threads, I was gonna bump them for fun. Then he nails the stock bottom, and as you pointed out, 2000 pricing, Eugene, you are the new BUGS, “you are my boy, blue.”[/quote]

Ha ha, thanks, but I wasn’t even here two years ago, you must be confusing me with someone else. Also, I missed the stock bottom, but it seems that I was correct when I was telling people to buy in January rather than wait for S&P to hit 600.[/quote]

Okay, I may have gotten the time frame wrong, they were more recent, but still a ways back and I can’t find them all now. BTW you are just a few weeks short of 2 years on here, don’t kid yourself, hobby becomes obsession after one year, I was rounding off.

Your prediction for 2009 of $3 gas, check.
S&P 1200, looking good.
Unemployment peaking Q2 then declining, so far so good.
Real estate recovery in areas with medians below 500k, looks that way

http://piggington.com/now_start_predictions_for_2009#comment-101917

And even though this one was recent

http://piggington.com/time_to_rebuy_sampp500#comment-123420

I probably dwelled on it because you were one of the only ones who thought homebuilders would rise in value. I wake up in the middle of the night screaming since I pussied out on buying some homebuilder stocks I knew would pop. My HOV prediction is now over 800% up, but I don’t own it, if it keeps going up I’m gonna have to switch from Cabernet to Ambien to get through the night.

[an]

One more data point:

17010 Castello Cir
San Diego, CA 92127

If you really think Rising River is at 2000 price, do you think the quality of the Rising River house/lot/location is comparable to the Castello house? Here’s a quick comparison:
Castello vs Rising River
5,413 sq-ft vs 4,464 sq-ft
28,749 sq-ft lot vs ~12,000 sq-ft lot (based on sdr)
6 beds, 5.5 baths vs 4 beds, 5 baths

Castello sold for:
05/21/2007-$1,710,000
07/03/2001-$874,990

In order for the Rising River to be at 2000 price, using Castello data point, you’d have to assume that 2000 and 2001 is the same (i.e. no appreciation between those 2 years), and that these two houses are comparable (i.e. priced the same). Since Rising River sold for $882,500 and Castello sold for $874k in 2001.

[an]

One more data point:

17010 Castello Cir
San Diego, CA 92127

If you really think Rising River is at 2000 price, do you think the quality of the Rising River house/lot/location is comparable to the Castello house? Here’s a quick comparison:
Castello vs Rising River
5,413 sq-ft vs 4,464 sq-ft
28,749 sq-ft lot vs ~12,000 sq-ft lot (based on sdr)
6 beds, 5.5 baths vs 4 beds, 5 baths

Castello sold for:
05/21/2007-$1,710,000
07/03/2001-$874,990

In order for the Rising River to be at 2000 price, using Castello data point, you’d have to assume that 2000 and 2001 is the same (i.e. no appreciation between those 2 years), and that these two houses are comparable (i.e. priced the same). Since Rising River sold for $882,500 and Castello sold for $874k in 2001.

[an]

One more data point:

17010 Castello Cir
San Diego, CA 92127

If you really think Rising River is at 2000 price, do you think the quality of the Rising River house/lot/location is comparable to the Castello house? Here’s a quick comparison:
Castello vs Rising River
5,413 sq-ft vs 4,464 sq-ft
28,749 sq-ft lot vs ~12,000 sq-ft lot (based on sdr)
6 beds, 5.5 baths vs 4 beds, 5 baths

Castello sold for:
05/21/2007-$1,710,000
07/03/2001-$874,990

In order for the Rising River to be at 2000 price, using Castello data point, you’d have to assume that 2000 and 2001 is the same (i.e. no appreciation between those 2 years), and that these two houses are comparable (i.e. priced the same). Since Rising River sold for $882,500 and Castello sold for $874k in 2001.

[an]

One more data point:

17010 Castello Cir
San Diego, CA 92127

If you really think Rising River is at 2000 price, do you think the quality of the Rising River house/lot/location is comparable to the Castello house? Here’s a quick comparison:
Castello vs Rising River
5,413 sq-ft vs 4,464 sq-ft
28,749 sq-ft lot vs ~12,000 sq-ft lot (based on sdr)
6 beds, 5.5 baths vs 4 beds, 5 baths

Castello sold for:
05/21/2007-$1,710,000
07/03/2001-$874,990

In order for the Rising River to be at 2000 price, using Castello data point, you’d have to assume that 2000 and 2001 is the same (i.e. no appreciation between those 2 years), and that these two houses are comparable (i.e. priced the same). Since Rising River sold for $882,500 and Castello sold for $874k in 2001.

[Author]

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