Any idea where the deals are?Buy or don’t buy

[farbet]

I too have been waiting. Moved to Carlsbad from the Washington DC area. I thought Washington was expensive!!
So does anyone have updates on builders deals in the Carlsbad,La Costa areas??
Sakina seems to researched the Schools. I was looking at Rancho Carillo,but the schools are in SM.I didn’t know this.
Thanks

[sakina96]

I moved from the east coast about eight months ago. I’m prepared to buy and have been looking for about eight months. However, I’ve seen enough price reductions and increased inventory that I’m going to ride this one out for a while to see what happens. I really don’t think that we’ll see a 40-50% reduction as some people think. I could realistically see 20% across the board with some larger increases in certain vulnerable areas (such as rancho carrillo, san elijo, etc.).

I think that “good deals” are a bit sporadic at this time and prices have not uniformly dropped (even within a particular neighborhood). I think there are many people who bought houses two to three years ago and have already counted on a 10-20% appreciation rate per year and have priced their houses accordingly. It’s going to take a while for reality to set in for these people.

That being said there are significant price reductions within Rancho Carrillo. I’ve seen numerous houses linger on the market and owners have dropped prices by 10-15%. I think that Lennar at Bressi Ranch is willing to accept offers below asking price. Fortunately Bressi Ranch is in Carslbad school district; unfortunately Bressi Ranch houses are packed so close together that they may as well be townhomes. Never mind the fact that it is in the flight path for Palomar airport (the busiest single strip airport in California). I don’t know if developments in La costa greens and la costa ridge are offering incentives (I have no doubt that they eventually will). As I have stated previously it does not make much sense to me to pay a Carlsbad price for these homes when they are in the SM school district.

Other areas in Carlsbad that are worth considering that are good neighborhoods are Calavera hills and Aviara. Personally I like Aviara; it’s a little pricey for me given the size house I’m looking for. However, I’m optimistic that, given time, prices will adjust lower such that I can get what I want.

I hope that helps.

[ocrenter]

patience will have its rewards.

we went to La Costa Greens in August 2005, one particular builder was just starting phase III. We went back at end of May 2006, guess what, they are STILL in phase III. Each phase has… 6-8 homes? 10 months and they are still in the same phase!! What are they doing on price? The same model that they were asking $840,000 for they are now asking $780,000’s. But there’s more, they are throwing in another $20,000 in upgrades. So really, you’re looking at $80,000 price reduction, that’s 10% off!! And it’ll only get worse! What’s so ironic about this is the huge sign right outside of La Costa Greens actually says, “a community starting in the $800,000’s.”

Bressie Ranch. airplane noise galore. In a down market it will be very hard to get rid of, especially with the high MelloRoos and HOA on top. That is why the builder has been offering huge discounts. I’ve seen $150,000 – $200,000 off on certain models. Adding in lender incentive, there are 2300 sqft homes there for $590,000!! The strategy is working, homes are selling there. Their goal is to get out by November 2006, I think they can do it.

San Elijo Hills. very high Mello Roos of 1.75% is going to be a problem. Plus there are still communities just coming on board. One particular one is slated to build 160 homes and they are just starting out in phase I!! They are pricing in the low $700,000’s for mid 2000 sqft homes. After this year is done with, I won’t be suprised if they lower their prices into the high $500,000’s. There are actually 3 communities that are all in very early phases that will run into problems. (a lot of them have 16-17 phases in all!!)

As for the school, up to middle school you will be safe given the building of San Elijo Middle School. San Marcos High is a big worry. But they just opened up Mission Hills High for students from the East side of San Marcos. I imagine that will make things better?

After seeing all this, we are waiting as well. DO NOT BUY!!! Let things drop!

[sdduuuude]

The best deals are in the rental market.

[farbet]

Thanks very much. I was in the Aviara area last weekend.I will be patient.
Please continue with the updates.It sure helps.

[hs]

Yes. let’s start the campaign: “DO NOT BUY! LET THINGS DROP!”

[farbet]

I just read in the San Diego Tribune that the folks at Calavera Hills are protesting the plan to build low income housing on the old farm site at Cannon(College )and Camino Real.
Did the Builders know about this and didn’t disclose the fact to buyers?
I would be mad as hell

[sakina96]

Personally I would never trust a builder to disclose anything about the surrounding area. If the surrounding land has not been built upon you should research it to find out what might be popping up down the line. Calavera hills is one such example. Essentially all of the surrounding land has plans in the works; one development is called Robertson Ranch but there are some smaller developments as well. The best place to find out about future projects is to go to the city of carlsbad website and look under construction updates. It is possible to find out some details about planned housing projects, density of housing, etc. It probably doesn’t give all the information you need but it is surely more than a builder would be willing to admit.

[Author]

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