Another Temecula Builder folds it’s tent-Morgan hill

[temeculaguy]

Bear, I thought I’d bring you out of hibernation with this thread. I was kinda bummed after two cosecutive deals fell through in the last two weeks. I am dreading the interest rate hike and possible r/e bounce or lack of foreclosures from the bailout but now that it has happened, the stock market tanked and wall street has switched from “please save us” to “that is a nice start, give us more.” I am sure the market can’t be saved. You know as well as anyone that I don’t need to be talked into the long term benefits of the area, just thought I’d cash out since I met my goals, but I’ve reset my goals once again.

BTW, the KHOV morgan tract is going well below 450k. This one just listed for 319K, down from 810k and now $86 a square http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33965-Milat-92592/home/12508924

One of the nicest old school redhawk tracts, the jm peters rancho serrano, walking distance to the bar at redhawk, is reguarlary at 300k and just under $100 a square. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45344-Camino-Monzon-92592/home/6253706

also happens to be one of two that got away from this week.

I don’t like vintage hills all that much but it is nice, this one popped up at $78 a square with a 4 car garage. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/41799-Camino-De-La-Torre-92592/home/6229791

your predictions are not that far off, but my e-mail of new listing from redfin today was almost exclusively in the 200’s.

While I didn’t get to play Pechanga’s course, my buddies went a few weeks back and loved it as well.

I haven’t formed an opinion just yet what the tent folding will do to the prices, less inventory is not always good. I’m convinced that I really need S.D. to begin it’s collapse to keep people from migrating since the gap has been widening, there are still 8-10 buyers on the day a place is listed when it is a premium place and priced right. In both the deals I lost (actually bowed out at certain points in the bidding war), my competition was not people facing foreclosure looking to downsize and let their previous place go, no were they zero down or investors. They were all over 20% down fence sitters from out of town, with income and solid credit, so there was no chance of them not qualifying. I theorized that there can’t be that many of them but other areas are not falling at the same pace so they keep showing up an peeing on my parade. I hope you are right about the $50 to $75 a square but I’m cool with $75-$90, the builders can’t build at those prices so we may see a contraction in inventory, which has not increased much in the last 12 months.

While I’m writing a novel, did you see “generation Kill” on HBO? It was made by the same crew that made “The Wire” and while I’m only on the third episode, it’s good stuff and fills the void the wire left in my life.

[bearvine]

TG- Sons of Anarchy on FX has replaced the Wire on my side. Also getting into True Blood. Generation Kill is very good, but not getting into it.

The K Hov Model at 435 I was referring to was the MODEL, highly upgraded and builder sold for $899.

The K Hov listing you posted is a WOW price, considering I paid $450 for that same model in an early phase, I believe it was 03. Got out at $565, and they sold for over 700 at some point. That buyer still lives in the home.

I can see why you wanted the Rancho Serrano home, that is a nice tract, and will stay nice IMO. Home looks well upgraded and kept.

There are/will be more homes in areas like the Vintage Hills one under $65 sq, but will need major renovation. Many homes are being stripped of EVERYTHING. I saw a UHaul in a once decent tract where they were loading the kitchen cabinets and the kitchen sink was in the driveway.

Journey at Pechanga reopens in a few weeks I think.

Getting the right house you want at 75-90 is safe. You have the taste and knowledge to not get burned.

I wouldn’t worry about a big influx of people to Temecula propping up prices. Inventory is coming, and prices are dropping in OC and SD. The areas of OC and SD staying strong are wealthy areas where the residents would not want to relocate in Temecula. Even then those areas have declined 20%.

I don’t completely agree with the theory that builders can’t build at certain prices. McMillin claims the homes they have left in the Morgan tracts are below their cost, and we often hear that you can’t build a home for less than %75, 80, 90 sq etc. BS.

How are homes being built and sold for $100k in other parts of the country?

Land prices will go down, materials will come down, and with all the out of work contractors, labor will come down. They are down.

Someone will buy lots at firesale prices from the builders out there at some point, and will build a lower cost home, offer financing, and we’ll see signs again for new homes in the $190’s and less in the Temecula/Murrieta valley.

[bearvine]

TG- Sons of Anarchy on FX has replaced the Wire on my side. Also getting into True Blood. Generation Kill is very good, but not getting into it.

The K Hov Model at 435 I was referring to was the MODEL, highly upgraded and builder sold for $899.

The K Hov listing you posted is a WOW price, considering I paid $450 for that same model in an early phase, I believe it was 03. Got out at $565, and they sold for over 700 at some point. That buyer still lives in the home.

I can see why you wanted the Rancho Serrano home, that is a nice tract, and will stay nice IMO. Home looks well upgraded and kept.

There are/will be more homes in areas like the Vintage Hills one under $65 sq, but will need major renovation. Many homes are being stripped of EVERYTHING. I saw a UHaul in a once decent tract where they were loading the kitchen cabinets and the kitchen sink was in the driveway.

Journey at Pechanga reopens in a few weeks I think.

Getting the right house you want at 75-90 is safe. You have the taste and knowledge to not get burned.

I wouldn’t worry about a big influx of people to Temecula propping up prices. Inventory is coming, and prices are dropping in OC and SD. The areas of OC and SD staying strong are wealthy areas where the residents would not want to relocate in Temecula. Even then those areas have declined 20%.

I don’t completely agree with the theory that builders can’t build at certain prices. McMillin claims the homes they have left in the Morgan tracts are below their cost, and we often hear that you can’t build a home for less than %75, 80, 90 sq etc. BS.

How are homes being built and sold for $100k in other parts of the country?

Land prices will go down, materials will come down, and with all the out of work contractors, labor will come down. They are down.

Someone will buy lots at firesale prices from the builders out there at some point, and will build a lower cost home, offer financing, and we’ll see signs again for new homes in the $190’s and less in the Temecula/Murrieta valley.

[bearvine]

TG- Sons of Anarchy on FX has replaced the Wire on my side. Also getting into True Blood. Generation Kill is very good, but not getting into it.

The K Hov Model at 435 I was referring to was the MODEL, highly upgraded and builder sold for $899.

The K Hov listing you posted is a WOW price, considering I paid $450 for that same model in an early phase, I believe it was 03. Got out at $565, and they sold for over 700 at some point. That buyer still lives in the home.

I can see why you wanted the Rancho Serrano home, that is a nice tract, and will stay nice IMO. Home looks well upgraded and kept.

There are/will be more homes in areas like the Vintage Hills one under $65 sq, but will need major renovation. Many homes are being stripped of EVERYTHING. I saw a UHaul in a once decent tract where they were loading the kitchen cabinets and the kitchen sink was in the driveway.

Journey at Pechanga reopens in a few weeks I think.

Getting the right house you want at 75-90 is safe. You have the taste and knowledge to not get burned.

I wouldn’t worry about a big influx of people to Temecula propping up prices. Inventory is coming, and prices are dropping in OC and SD. The areas of OC and SD staying strong are wealthy areas where the residents would not want to relocate in Temecula. Even then those areas have declined 20%.

I don’t completely agree with the theory that builders can’t build at certain prices. McMillin claims the homes they have left in the Morgan tracts are below their cost, and we often hear that you can’t build a home for less than %75, 80, 90 sq etc. BS.

How are homes being built and sold for $100k in other parts of the country?

Land prices will go down, materials will come down, and with all the out of work contractors, labor will come down. They are down.

Someone will buy lots at firesale prices from the builders out there at some point, and will build a lower cost home, offer financing, and we’ll see signs again for new homes in the $190’s and less in the Temecula/Murrieta valley.

[bearvine]

TG- Sons of Anarchy on FX has replaced the Wire on my side. Also getting into True Blood. Generation Kill is very good, but not getting into it.

The K Hov Model at 435 I was referring to was the MODEL, highly upgraded and builder sold for $899.

The K Hov listing you posted is a WOW price, considering I paid $450 for that same model in an early phase, I believe it was 03. Got out at $565, and they sold for over 700 at some point. That buyer still lives in the home.

I can see why you wanted the Rancho Serrano home, that is a nice tract, and will stay nice IMO. Home looks well upgraded and kept.

There are/will be more homes in areas like the Vintage Hills one under $65 sq, but will need major renovation. Many homes are being stripped of EVERYTHING. I saw a UHaul in a once decent tract where they were loading the kitchen cabinets and the kitchen sink was in the driveway.

Journey at Pechanga reopens in a few weeks I think.

Getting the right house you want at 75-90 is safe. You have the taste and knowledge to not get burned.

I wouldn’t worry about a big influx of people to Temecula propping up prices. Inventory is coming, and prices are dropping in OC and SD. The areas of OC and SD staying strong are wealthy areas where the residents would not want to relocate in Temecula. Even then those areas have declined 20%.

I don’t completely agree with the theory that builders can’t build at certain prices. McMillin claims the homes they have left in the Morgan tracts are below their cost, and we often hear that you can’t build a home for less than %75, 80, 90 sq etc. BS.

How are homes being built and sold for $100k in other parts of the country?

Land prices will go down, materials will come down, and with all the out of work contractors, labor will come down. They are down.

Someone will buy lots at firesale prices from the builders out there at some point, and will build a lower cost home, offer financing, and we’ll see signs again for new homes in the $190’s and less in the Temecula/Murrieta valley.

[bearvine]

TG- Sons of Anarchy on FX has replaced the Wire on my side. Also getting into True Blood. Generation Kill is very good, but not getting into it.

The K Hov Model at 435 I was referring to was the MODEL, highly upgraded and builder sold for $899.

The K Hov listing you posted is a WOW price, considering I paid $450 for that same model in an early phase, I believe it was 03. Got out at $565, and they sold for over 700 at some point. That buyer still lives in the home.

I can see why you wanted the Rancho Serrano home, that is a nice tract, and will stay nice IMO. Home looks well upgraded and kept.

There are/will be more homes in areas like the Vintage Hills one under $65 sq, but will need major renovation. Many homes are being stripped of EVERYTHING. I saw a UHaul in a once decent tract where they were loading the kitchen cabinets and the kitchen sink was in the driveway.

Journey at Pechanga reopens in a few weeks I think.

Getting the right house you want at 75-90 is safe. You have the taste and knowledge to not get burned.

I wouldn’t worry about a big influx of people to Temecula propping up prices. Inventory is coming, and prices are dropping in OC and SD. The areas of OC and SD staying strong are wealthy areas where the residents would not want to relocate in Temecula. Even then those areas have declined 20%.

I don’t completely agree with the theory that builders can’t build at certain prices. McMillin claims the homes they have left in the Morgan tracts are below their cost, and we often hear that you can’t build a home for less than %75, 80, 90 sq etc. BS.

How are homes being built and sold for $100k in other parts of the country?

Land prices will go down, materials will come down, and with all the out of work contractors, labor will come down. They are down.

Someone will buy lots at firesale prices from the builders out there at some point, and will build a lower cost home, offer financing, and we’ll see signs again for new homes in the $190’s and less in the Temecula/Murrieta valley.

[carlsbadworker]

I was just about to schedule an appointment with my agent to see the Vintage Village house. It turns out the listing agent just raised the price by $100K! Ouch. I really like it at $250K. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/41799-Camino-De-La-Torre-92592/home/6229791

[carlsbadworker]

I was just about to schedule an appointment with my agent to see the Vintage Village house. It turns out the listing agent just raised the price by $100K! Ouch. I really like it at $250K. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/41799-Camino-De-La-Torre-92592/home/6229791

[carlsbadworker]

I was just about to schedule an appointment with my agent to see the Vintage Village house. It turns out the listing agent just raised the price by $100K! Ouch. I really like it at $250K. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/41799-Camino-De-La-Torre-92592/home/6229791

[carlsbadworker]

I was just about to schedule an appointment with my agent to see the Vintage Village house. It turns out the listing agent just raised the price by $100K! Ouch. I really like it at $250K. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/41799-Camino-De-La-Torre-92592/home/6229791

[carlsbadworker]

I was just about to schedule an appointment with my agent to see the Vintage Village house. It turns out the listing agent just raised the price by $100K! Ouch. I really like it at $250K. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/41799-Camino-De-La-Torre-92592/home/6229791

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

“Give Temecula 10-15 years, it will be a MUCH nicer area, and it WILL be a tourist destination. The homes the wise buy in at $50-75 sq ft range and rent out until the area is ready, will do well.”

Anyway, I have two buddies from the North L.A area, one mid fifties, the other about 60 years old, both recently bought foreclosed homes in Temecula one 330K the other a little over 300K. Both paid cash, were they fools ?? maybe — are they worried ?? not much .

Both do not plan on moving into the area in 5 or so years after they retire, keep as weekend second homes until then.

I have a third buddy now considering doing the same.

I think the nicer homes/areas in T.V. will still find buyers around this level.

Just my Opinion..

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

“Give Temecula 10-15 years, it will be a MUCH nicer area, and it WILL be a tourist destination. The homes the wise buy in at $50-75 sq ft range and rent out until the area is ready, will do well.”

Anyway, I have two buddies from the North L.A area, one mid fifties, the other about 60 years old, both recently bought foreclosed homes in Temecula one 330K the other a little over 300K. Both paid cash, were they fools ?? maybe — are they worried ?? not much .

Both do not plan on moving into the area in 5 or so years after they retire, keep as weekend second homes until then.

I have a third buddy now considering doing the same.

I think the nicer homes/areas in T.V. will still find buyers around this level.

Just my Opinion..

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

“Give Temecula 10-15 years, it will be a MUCH nicer area, and it WILL be a tourist destination. The homes the wise buy in at $50-75 sq ft range and rent out until the area is ready, will do well.”

Anyway, I have two buddies from the North L.A area, one mid fifties, the other about 60 years old, both recently bought foreclosed homes in Temecula one 330K the other a little over 300K. Both paid cash, were they fools ?? maybe — are they worried ?? not much .

Both do not plan on moving into the area in 5 or so years after they retire, keep as weekend second homes until then.

I have a third buddy now considering doing the same.

I think the nicer homes/areas in T.V. will still find buyers around this level.

Just my Opinion..

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

“Give Temecula 10-15 years, it will be a MUCH nicer area, and it WILL be a tourist destination. The homes the wise buy in at $50-75 sq ft range and rent out until the area is ready, will do well.”

Anyway, I have two buddies from the North L.A area, one mid fifties, the other about 60 years old, both recently bought foreclosed homes in Temecula one 330K the other a little over 300K. Both paid cash, were they fools ?? maybe — are they worried ?? not much .

Both do not plan on moving into the area in 5 or so years after they retire, keep as weekend second homes until then.

I have a third buddy now considering doing the same.

I think the nicer homes/areas in T.V. will still find buyers around this level.

Just my Opinion..

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