Another SD housing market prediction by a smart man, here are some excerpts:

[PD]

There could be a correlation between number of sales (percentage of overall supply) and price increases.

[pencilneck]

Yes, I suppose there could be over a longer time frame than I’m looking at. Scroll to the bottom of the link below for a look at some numbers:

http://rereport.com/sdc/main_sc.html

I have no idea how accurate this information is, but I like the format. Its too bad the data is listed over such a short timeframe..

[powayseller]

OK, Chris, this one is for you.

By 2012, median home price will drop 32%.

I used this data and the first chart on this page, to calculate the price drop over the next 6 years.

Assuming per capita income will continue rising at 3% annually, and that the ratio of median house price/per capita income will reverse at the same rate as it rose (unlikely), in 2012, the median price will be $364,132, a 32% drop from the 2005 median of $539,823.

None of this is adjusted for inflation.

If this time is different, because the exotic loans were different, the correction could happen quicker or deeper. Perhaps 40% is possible after all.

My only point in propagating this is to help people. Anyone who owns a house, is looking to buy, ought to consider this seriously and make sure they can handle this large of a drop, both in their home’s equity, and in the economic repercussions of their jobs. Just be prepared, that’s all I want for people.

[powayseller]

Forbidden

You don’t have permission to access /comment/reply/580/3550 on this server.
————————————————————————
Apache Server at http://www.econo-almanac.com Port 80

Rich, if you’re out there, it’s still happening. My post was not accepted.

[sdduuuude]

I like the analysis, there, powayseller !

[PD]

I went to an agent owned open house today. She purchased the home about 8 months ago for a little over 800k and then spent six months upgrading. It is on the market for 1.04M.
She was a font of information: 1) I could get a two year ARM or IO so that my payments wouldn’t be too large. After all, I could just sell it in two years if I ran into trouble 2)There are lot of people in San Diego who are upside down and there are some GREAT deals out there right now. It has never been a better time to buy 3) However, those deals are not in Coronado and never will be in Coronado because prices will NEVER go down here.
Sign me up! After talking to her, I’m just dying to buy a 1,500 sq ft house for over a million dollars!

[Author]

Posts