Alt-A Resets Accelerating like mad… here comes the next wave!

[capeman]

Courtesy of Mr. Mortgage

http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/08/05/pay-option-arms-up-to-48-default-rate-first-federal-featured/

So I know we’ve all been using the old ARM reset chart from Jan. 07 to predict the coming waves of foreclosures. See the following graph. (click on it to make it bigger)

[img_assist|nid=8524|title=January 2007 ARM Reset Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

Looking at this we shouldn’t be expecting the next wave of big resets lead by Alt-A loans to start until early to mid 2009. One thing that hasn’t been given much publicity is the fact that most of the originated Alt-A loans in this wave are Pay Option ARMs (the pay some or all of your interest and add the remainder to the principal option). A lot of these loans have principal triggers for early reset if the loan value hits some contractual trigger value such as 125% of the original loan balance.

[img_assist|nid=8526|title=Revised Alt-A Reset chart due to Pay Option ARMs|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=227]

From this revised Alt-A reset chart you can see that many people are hitting these triggers early due to not paying the full option payments and racking up principal quicker than expected.

It looks like the wave is starting a year early and looking at this chart the Alt-A reset peak is due EOY 2009 instead of sometime in 2011-2012. Keep in mind that further price depreciation, higher unemployment and this crazy inflation may shift this whole chart and peak closer to present time. What a much bigger mess this looks to be in the next year.

[PadreBrian]

I suspect the gob’ment will come to the rescue and extend their bailout. In 2010 we may see 1/2 of the loans taken out from 2003-2007 will be the new FHA loans.

[PadreBrian]

I suspect the gob’ment will come to the rescue and extend their bailout. In 2010 we may see 1/2 of the loans taken out from 2003-2007 will be the new FHA loans.

[PadreBrian]

I suspect the gob’ment will come to the rescue and extend their bailout. In 2010 we may see 1/2 of the loans taken out from 2003-2007 will be the new FHA loans.

[PadreBrian]

I suspect the gob’ment will come to the rescue and extend their bailout. In 2010 we may see 1/2 of the loans taken out from 2003-2007 will be the new FHA loans.

[PadreBrian]

I suspect the gob’ment will come to the rescue and extend their bailout. In 2010 we may see 1/2 of the loans taken out from 2003-2007 will be the new FHA loans.

[gdcox]

Would even the gov bail out proponents be able to support pay option arms at say 125%. There is no bail out for Helocs as I understand it : or have I missed something?

[gdcox]

Would even the gov bail out proponents be able to support pay option arms at say 125%. There is no bail out for Helocs as I understand it : or have I missed something?

[gdcox]

Would even the gov bail out proponents be able to support pay option arms at say 125%. There is no bail out for Helocs as I understand it : or have I missed something?

[gdcox]

Would even the gov bail out proponents be able to support pay option arms at say 125%. There is no bail out for Helocs as I understand it : or have I missed something?

[gdcox]

Would even the gov bail out proponents be able to support pay option arms at say 125%. There is no bail out for Helocs as I understand it : or have I missed something?

[Author]

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