(Almost) Last Chance to Get out of Stocks

[stockstradr]

I do agree that this thread still has some discussion value…as the markets are LIKELY headed lower from here. However, it is guesswork at this point: will the markets stall here, or will they go another 10% or 20% lower? Who knows!

My prediction history?

Like Powayseller I also started on this forum by warning too early of the coming bear market, posting my “SELL SELL SELL” advice as early as late 2006. I based a lot of that advice on Roubini’s predictions, which were in ERROR by at least one year regards the onset of the recession and market correction.

However, I do get credit for a remarkably well-timed post when in Oct 2007, I made my second determination (this time correctly) that we had reached the top on the markets, and I shared I was then DOUBLING DOWN my shorts and put option positions.

I also get even more credit because I sold about 5%above the bottom, in March, and posted then confirming those sales.

Then I also posted on this forum almost exactly at the second top (mid May ’08) that I saw a top to the Fool’s Rally and was again loading up on put options and shorts because the second leg of the bear market was about to resume. The timing of that post was near perfect as I missed the top (S&P 500) by only 20 pts.

Where is the market going from here?

I’m GUESSING we are headed south another 10% from here on the NASDAQ and S&P500, but I make that prediction with MUCH less confidence than when I predicted back in Oct ’07 that markets were headed south.

Oh, one more thing: OIL. For those you remember my mistake to short oil index (at $85/bbl), The status update: those same oil positions of mine are now only a few % points away from break-even. Oil price as you know is currently in free-fall, but I admit we got a long way to go before I start making any real money on those short oil index positions.

And I’ll exercise my bragging rights with regard to inflation as well.

If you search you’ll find my posts are over six months (maybe nine months) ago warning of the beggining of dramatically increasing inflation that would affect the mortgage rates. At that time lots of people on here laughed at that post of mine and replied we were entering a DEFLATIONARY period (lottsa laughs). Status update: recent inflation figures are higher than seen in 27 years.

[stockstradr]

I do agree that this thread still has some discussion value…as the markets are LIKELY headed lower from here. However, it is guesswork at this point: will the markets stall here, or will they go another 10% or 20% lower? Who knows!

My prediction history?

Like Powayseller I also started on this forum by warning too early of the coming bear market, posting my “SELL SELL SELL” advice as early as late 2006. I based a lot of that advice on Roubini’s predictions, which were in ERROR by at least one year regards the onset of the recession and market correction.

However, I do get credit for a remarkably well-timed post when in Oct 2007, I made my second determination (this time correctly) that we had reached the top on the markets, and I shared I was then DOUBLING DOWN my shorts and put option positions.

I also get even more credit because I sold about 5%above the bottom, in March, and posted then confirming those sales.

Then I also posted on this forum almost exactly at the second top (mid May ’08) that I saw a top to the Fool’s Rally and was again loading up on put options and shorts because the second leg of the bear market was about to resume. The timing of that post was near perfect as I missed the top (S&P 500) by only 20 pts.

Where is the market going from here?

I’m GUESSING we are headed south another 10% from here on the NASDAQ and S&P500, but I make that prediction with MUCH less confidence than when I predicted back in Oct ’07 that markets were headed south.

Oh, one more thing: OIL. For those you remember my mistake to short oil index (at $85/bbl), The status update: those same oil positions of mine are now only a few % points away from break-even. Oil price as you know is currently in free-fall, but I admit we got a long way to go before I start making any real money on those short oil index positions.

And I’ll exercise my bragging rights with regard to inflation as well.

If you search you’ll find my posts are over six months (maybe nine months) ago warning of the beggining of dramatically increasing inflation that would affect the mortgage rates. At that time lots of people on here laughed at that post of mine and replied we were entering a DEFLATIONARY period (lottsa laughs). Status update: recent inflation figures are higher than seen in 27 years.

[stockstradr]

Totally my fault for making investment decisions based off of pretty much just a blog. Too funny, and lesson learned, hopefully– the first of many.

I applied a different lesson, and it worked. Back in late 2006 when Roubini was spouting “CRASH CRASH CRASH” I believed him but I applied the lesson of only putting less than half your chips in the market on any prediction, then wait and watch. Only increase your bet when the chances have significantly increased that your original prediction is correct.

I waited and the market showed Roubini’s timing was WRONG, yet with the markets moving even higher it made his prediction even more likely because he was right about markets having zero support from economic conditions.

So by Oct ’08 the markets were sitting – insanely – at 1550 (S&P500) and 14,000 (DOW). I understood those were completely IRRATIONAL valuations given the incredibly poor economic conditions, and crest of the housing price Tsunami.

Those valuations made a huge market correction even much much more likely, than was the case in late 2006.

Nothing in the market is certain, but some anticipated market inflections are nearly certain and you don’t want to get rattled by the “noise” and miss such opportunities. Oct ’07 was certainly such a golden opportunity where a downturn was inevitable. That was the “best odds” I’ve seen on a play in the market in a very long time.

[stockstradr]

Totally my fault for making investment decisions based off of pretty much just a blog. Too funny, and lesson learned, hopefully– the first of many.

I applied a different lesson, and it worked. Back in late 2006 when Roubini was spouting “CRASH CRASH CRASH” I believed him but I applied the lesson of only putting less than half your chips in the market on any prediction, then wait and watch. Only increase your bet when the chances have significantly increased that your original prediction is correct.

I waited and the market showed Roubini’s timing was WRONG, yet with the markets moving even higher it made his prediction even more likely because he was right about markets having zero support from economic conditions.

So by Oct ’08 the markets were sitting – insanely – at 1550 (S&P500) and 14,000 (DOW). I understood those were completely IRRATIONAL valuations given the incredibly poor economic conditions, and crest of the housing price Tsunami.

Those valuations made a huge market correction even much much more likely, than was the case in late 2006.

Nothing in the market is certain, but some anticipated market inflections are nearly certain and you don’t want to get rattled by the “noise” and miss such opportunities. Oct ’07 was certainly such a golden opportunity where a downturn was inevitable. That was the “best odds” I’ve seen on a play in the market in a very long time.

[stockstradr]

Totally my fault for making investment decisions based off of pretty much just a blog. Too funny, and lesson learned, hopefully– the first of many.

I applied a different lesson, and it worked. Back in late 2006 when Roubini was spouting “CRASH CRASH CRASH” I believed him but I applied the lesson of only putting less than half your chips in the market on any prediction, then wait and watch. Only increase your bet when the chances have significantly increased that your original prediction is correct.

I waited and the market showed Roubini’s timing was WRONG, yet with the markets moving even higher it made his prediction even more likely because he was right about markets having zero support from economic conditions.

So by Oct ’08 the markets were sitting – insanely – at 1550 (S&P500) and 14,000 (DOW). I understood those were completely IRRATIONAL valuations given the incredibly poor economic conditions, and crest of the housing price Tsunami.

Those valuations made a huge market correction even much much more likely, than was the case in late 2006.

Nothing in the market is certain, but some anticipated market inflections are nearly certain and you don’t want to get rattled by the “noise” and miss such opportunities. Oct ’07 was certainly such a golden opportunity where a downturn was inevitable. That was the “best odds” I’ve seen on a play in the market in a very long time.

[stockstradr]

Totally my fault for making investment decisions based off of pretty much just a blog. Too funny, and lesson learned, hopefully– the first of many.

I applied a different lesson, and it worked. Back in late 2006 when Roubini was spouting “CRASH CRASH CRASH” I believed him but I applied the lesson of only putting less than half your chips in the market on any prediction, then wait and watch. Only increase your bet when the chances have significantly increased that your original prediction is correct.

I waited and the market showed Roubini’s timing was WRONG, yet with the markets moving even higher it made his prediction even more likely because he was right about markets having zero support from economic conditions.

So by Oct ’08 the markets were sitting – insanely – at 1550 (S&P500) and 14,000 (DOW). I understood those were completely IRRATIONAL valuations given the incredibly poor economic conditions, and crest of the housing price Tsunami.

Those valuations made a huge market correction even much much more likely, than was the case in late 2006.

Nothing in the market is certain, but some anticipated market inflections are nearly certain and you don’t want to get rattled by the “noise” and miss such opportunities. Oct ’07 was certainly such a golden opportunity where a downturn was inevitable. That was the “best odds” I’ve seen on a play in the market in a very long time.

[stockstradr]

Totally my fault for making investment decisions based off of pretty much just a blog. Too funny, and lesson learned, hopefully– the first of many.

I applied a different lesson, and it worked. Back in late 2006 when Roubini was spouting “CRASH CRASH CRASH” I believed him but I applied the lesson of only putting less than half your chips in the market on any prediction, then wait and watch. Only increase your bet when the chances have significantly increased that your original prediction is correct.

I waited and the market showed Roubini’s timing was WRONG, yet with the markets moving even higher it made his prediction even more likely because he was right about markets having zero support from economic conditions.

So by Oct ’08 the markets were sitting – insanely – at 1550 (S&P500) and 14,000 (DOW). I understood those were completely IRRATIONAL valuations given the incredibly poor economic conditions, and crest of the housing price Tsunami.

Those valuations made a huge market correction even much much more likely, than was the case in late 2006.

Nothing in the market is certain, but some anticipated market inflections are nearly certain and you don’t want to get rattled by the “noise” and miss such opportunities. Oct ’07 was certainly such a golden opportunity where a downturn was inevitable. That was the “best odds” I’ve seen on a play in the market in a very long time.

[jficquette]

I found this post at another site I go to. I am not sure how much faith to put in it. A litte too much sensationalism.

I post it because of the insight provide by his lawyer friends.

John

Let me tell you something. You think you know that things will get bad with the banks, right?

I mean, there’s been doom & gloom all over the news, and predictions of bank failures by the hundreds, right?

You are all prepared, right? Nothing will shock you?

Things are 100x worse than what anyone has publicly been saying.

How do I know this? It’s not insider information. It’s not a national secret. It’s not privileged, nor confidential information.

I have two very friends that work for two different law firms, and they have been taken out of their regular practice areas and reassigned to the foreclosures department.

Most of you have ZERO clue as to how many PROPERTIES (not just residential homes, but commercial, retail, office and industrial) are being foreclosed upon.

They are both telling me that their firms can’t hire paralegals or attorneys fast enough to handle the onslaught, and that the senior most partners at their firms view this as unprecedented.

It’s so bad, and these people are anything but lazy, that they are considering quitting their jobs. They both refer to it as a black hole. They have told me stories of people just quitting on the spot, in the middle of the day, as a frequent occurrence.

If you have access to any database that lists foreclosed properties, you would be stunned at the broad array of properties – everything from single lots to factories to shopping malls – that are being foreclosed on right now.

Everything I’m telling you is public record. Once banks file foreclosure proceedings, it’s all public record.

So, if you have any doubts that we are headed for an absolute crisis, or that properties from the tens of thousands to the hundreds of millions, from New York to Boston to Cleveland to California to the Hamptons to Mercer Island are being foreclosed upon in record numbers – just go check out the public records – whether in your immediate area, or on a national level.

No one can understand the size and scope of this crisis until they actually view the reams and reams of foreclosure listings, and see that no price point, location, category, size or shape is immune.

You will come back to this thread, if you do this, and be able to do nothing but say “wow, you’re right.”

A tidal wave is about to hit. It’s 60 feet high, just off shore, and building in velocity and height at a rapid clip.

[jficquette]

I found this post at another site I go to. I am not sure how much faith to put in it. A litte too much sensationalism.

I post it because of the insight provide by his lawyer friends.

John

Let me tell you something. You think you know that things will get bad with the banks, right?

I mean, there’s been doom & gloom all over the news, and predictions of bank failures by the hundreds, right?

You are all prepared, right? Nothing will shock you?

Things are 100x worse than what anyone has publicly been saying.

How do I know this? It’s not insider information. It’s not a national secret. It’s not privileged, nor confidential information.

I have two very friends that work for two different law firms, and they have been taken out of their regular practice areas and reassigned to the foreclosures department.

Most of you have ZERO clue as to how many PROPERTIES (not just residential homes, but commercial, retail, office and industrial) are being foreclosed upon.

They are both telling me that their firms can’t hire paralegals or attorneys fast enough to handle the onslaught, and that the senior most partners at their firms view this as unprecedented.

It’s so bad, and these people are anything but lazy, that they are considering quitting their jobs. They both refer to it as a black hole. They have told me stories of people just quitting on the spot, in the middle of the day, as a frequent occurrence.

If you have access to any database that lists foreclosed properties, you would be stunned at the broad array of properties – everything from single lots to factories to shopping malls – that are being foreclosed on right now.

Everything I’m telling you is public record. Once banks file foreclosure proceedings, it’s all public record.

So, if you have any doubts that we are headed for an absolute crisis, or that properties from the tens of thousands to the hundreds of millions, from New York to Boston to Cleveland to California to the Hamptons to Mercer Island are being foreclosed upon in record numbers – just go check out the public records – whether in your immediate area, or on a national level.

No one can understand the size and scope of this crisis until they actually view the reams and reams of foreclosure listings, and see that no price point, location, category, size or shape is immune.

You will come back to this thread, if you do this, and be able to do nothing but say “wow, you’re right.”

A tidal wave is about to hit. It’s 60 feet high, just off shore, and building in velocity and height at a rapid clip.

[jficquette]

I found this post at another site I go to. I am not sure how much faith to put in it. A litte too much sensationalism.

I post it because of the insight provide by his lawyer friends.

John

Let me tell you something. You think you know that things will get bad with the banks, right?

I mean, there’s been doom & gloom all over the news, and predictions of bank failures by the hundreds, right?

You are all prepared, right? Nothing will shock you?

Things are 100x worse than what anyone has publicly been saying.

How do I know this? It’s not insider information. It’s not a national secret. It’s not privileged, nor confidential information.

I have two very friends that work for two different law firms, and they have been taken out of their regular practice areas and reassigned to the foreclosures department.

Most of you have ZERO clue as to how many PROPERTIES (not just residential homes, but commercial, retail, office and industrial) are being foreclosed upon.

They are both telling me that their firms can’t hire paralegals or attorneys fast enough to handle the onslaught, and that the senior most partners at their firms view this as unprecedented.

It’s so bad, and these people are anything but lazy, that they are considering quitting their jobs. They both refer to it as a black hole. They have told me stories of people just quitting on the spot, in the middle of the day, as a frequent occurrence.

If you have access to any database that lists foreclosed properties, you would be stunned at the broad array of properties – everything from single lots to factories to shopping malls – that are being foreclosed on right now.

Everything I’m telling you is public record. Once banks file foreclosure proceedings, it’s all public record.

So, if you have any doubts that we are headed for an absolute crisis, or that properties from the tens of thousands to the hundreds of millions, from New York to Boston to Cleveland to California to the Hamptons to Mercer Island are being foreclosed upon in record numbers – just go check out the public records – whether in your immediate area, or on a national level.

No one can understand the size and scope of this crisis until they actually view the reams and reams of foreclosure listings, and see that no price point, location, category, size or shape is immune.

You will come back to this thread, if you do this, and be able to do nothing but say “wow, you’re right.”

A tidal wave is about to hit. It’s 60 feet high, just off shore, and building in velocity and height at a rapid clip.

[jficquette]

I found this post at another site I go to. I am not sure how much faith to put in it. A litte too much sensationalism.

I post it because of the insight provide by his lawyer friends.

John

Let me tell you something. You think you know that things will get bad with the banks, right?

I mean, there’s been doom & gloom all over the news, and predictions of bank failures by the hundreds, right?

You are all prepared, right? Nothing will shock you?

Things are 100x worse than what anyone has publicly been saying.

How do I know this? It’s not insider information. It’s not a national secret. It’s not privileged, nor confidential information.

I have two very friends that work for two different law firms, and they have been taken out of their regular practice areas and reassigned to the foreclosures department.

Most of you have ZERO clue as to how many PROPERTIES (not just residential homes, but commercial, retail, office and industrial) are being foreclosed upon.

They are both telling me that their firms can’t hire paralegals or attorneys fast enough to handle the onslaught, and that the senior most partners at their firms view this as unprecedented.

It’s so bad, and these people are anything but lazy, that they are considering quitting their jobs. They both refer to it as a black hole. They have told me stories of people just quitting on the spot, in the middle of the day, as a frequent occurrence.

If you have access to any database that lists foreclosed properties, you would be stunned at the broad array of properties – everything from single lots to factories to shopping malls – that are being foreclosed on right now.

Everything I’m telling you is public record. Once banks file foreclosure proceedings, it’s all public record.

So, if you have any doubts that we are headed for an absolute crisis, or that properties from the tens of thousands to the hundreds of millions, from New York to Boston to Cleveland to California to the Hamptons to Mercer Island are being foreclosed upon in record numbers – just go check out the public records – whether in your immediate area, or on a national level.

No one can understand the size and scope of this crisis until they actually view the reams and reams of foreclosure listings, and see that no price point, location, category, size or shape is immune.

You will come back to this thread, if you do this, and be able to do nothing but say “wow, you’re right.”

A tidal wave is about to hit. It’s 60 feet high, just off shore, and building in velocity and height at a rapid clip.

[jficquette]

I found this post at another site I go to. I am not sure how much faith to put in it. A litte too much sensationalism.

I post it because of the insight provide by his lawyer friends.

John

Let me tell you something. You think you know that things will get bad with the banks, right?

I mean, there’s been doom & gloom all over the news, and predictions of bank failures by the hundreds, right?

You are all prepared, right? Nothing will shock you?

Things are 100x worse than what anyone has publicly been saying.

How do I know this? It’s not insider information. It’s not a national secret. It’s not privileged, nor confidential information.

I have two very friends that work for two different law firms, and they have been taken out of their regular practice areas and reassigned to the foreclosures department.

Most of you have ZERO clue as to how many PROPERTIES (not just residential homes, but commercial, retail, office and industrial) are being foreclosed upon.

They are both telling me that their firms can’t hire paralegals or attorneys fast enough to handle the onslaught, and that the senior most partners at their firms view this as unprecedented.

It’s so bad, and these people are anything but lazy, that they are considering quitting their jobs. They both refer to it as a black hole. They have told me stories of people just quitting on the spot, in the middle of the day, as a frequent occurrence.

If you have access to any database that lists foreclosed properties, you would be stunned at the broad array of properties – everything from single lots to factories to shopping malls – that are being foreclosed on right now.

Everything I’m telling you is public record. Once banks file foreclosure proceedings, it’s all public record.

So, if you have any doubts that we are headed for an absolute crisis, or that properties from the tens of thousands to the hundreds of millions, from New York to Boston to Cleveland to California to the Hamptons to Mercer Island are being foreclosed upon in record numbers – just go check out the public records – whether in your immediate area, or on a national level.

No one can understand the size and scope of this crisis until they actually view the reams and reams of foreclosure listings, and see that no price point, location, category, size or shape is immune.

You will come back to this thread, if you do this, and be able to do nothing but say “wow, you’re right.”

A tidal wave is about to hit. It’s 60 feet high, just off shore, and building in velocity and height at a rapid clip.

[ucodegen]

@stocktradr
If you search you’ll find my posts are over six months (maybe nine months) ago warning of the beggining of dramatically increasing inflation that would affect the mortgage rates… Status update: recent inflation figures are higher than seen in 27 years.

The inflation aspect is one reason I would be careful of shorting oil. In the early 1900s, gold was a universal currency because many currencies were based upon it(and it was therefore ‘required’ for the currencies). Now most currencies are fiat and gold does not have much more importance than emotion puts on it. Oil is the closest thing to a global currency since most modern economies require it to run. With high inflation, the price of oil may end up holding constant because of the dollars devaluation through inflation and even though oil consumption drops.

Oil is not yet in a free-fall. It will be interesting to see if it does enter a free-fall. I think its behavior will depend upon the economies of the emerging countries (ie India and China) and whether their economies are able to run self supporting without US over-consumption.

[ucodegen]

@stocktradr
If you search you’ll find my posts are over six months (maybe nine months) ago warning of the beggining of dramatically increasing inflation that would affect the mortgage rates… Status update: recent inflation figures are higher than seen in 27 years.

The inflation aspect is one reason I would be careful of shorting oil. In the early 1900s, gold was a universal currency because many currencies were based upon it(and it was therefore ‘required’ for the currencies). Now most currencies are fiat and gold does not have much more importance than emotion puts on it. Oil is the closest thing to a global currency since most modern economies require it to run. With high inflation, the price of oil may end up holding constant because of the dollars devaluation through inflation and even though oil consumption drops.

Oil is not yet in a free-fall. It will be interesting to see if it does enter a free-fall. I think its behavior will depend upon the economies of the emerging countries (ie India and China) and whether their economies are able to run self supporting without US over-consumption.

[ucodegen]

@stocktradr
If you search you’ll find my posts are over six months (maybe nine months) ago warning of the beggining of dramatically increasing inflation that would affect the mortgage rates… Status update: recent inflation figures are higher than seen in 27 years.

The inflation aspect is one reason I would be careful of shorting oil. In the early 1900s, gold was a universal currency because many currencies were based upon it(and it was therefore ‘required’ for the currencies). Now most currencies are fiat and gold does not have much more importance than emotion puts on it. Oil is the closest thing to a global currency since most modern economies require it to run. With high inflation, the price of oil may end up holding constant because of the dollars devaluation through inflation and even though oil consumption drops.

Oil is not yet in a free-fall. It will be interesting to see if it does enter a free-fall. I think its behavior will depend upon the economies of the emerging countries (ie India and China) and whether their economies are able to run self supporting without US over-consumption.

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