AIG Downgraded! Terrible news

[davelj]

[quote=kev374]Apparently Goldman and JP Morgan have taken care of the capital requirements so this is all frivolous reporting. AIG is fine. They have $500 billion in assets.[/quote]

The absolute level of a firm’s assets is meaningless. It’s the level of assets RELATIVE to its liabilities. My guess is that the reason the private sector has bailed on AIG is because it suspects that AIG’s liabilities are greater than its assets (on a liquidation basis). I suspect the market is right. Without the Fed, AIG is toast at this point.

[kev374]

Looks like the Fed is going to bail them out. In any case, they are fine. The Fed is not going to allow this to happen, the risk of systemic collapse is too high.

[kev374]

Looks like the Fed is going to bail them out. In any case, they are fine. The Fed is not going to allow this to happen, the risk of systemic collapse is too high.

[kev374]

Looks like the Fed is going to bail them out. In any case, they are fine. The Fed is not going to allow this to happen, the risk of systemic collapse is too high.

[kev374]

Looks like the Fed is going to bail them out. In any case, they are fine. The Fed is not going to allow this to happen, the risk of systemic collapse is too high.

[kev374]

Looks like the Fed is going to bail them out. In any case, they are fine. The Fed is not going to allow this to happen, the risk of systemic collapse is too high.

[DaCounselor]

davelj you pretty much have it down. AIG has a ton of diversified assets, but the important question is what could those assets bring in a quick sale to boost AIG’s immediate liquidity problems. What their books say they are worth and even what third party estimates of asset values are do not answer the specific question of immediate valuation by prospective purchasers. In fact, we are indeed given a clue as to valuation in relation to risk assumption by the lack of scavenging of AIG’s assets, which speaks volumes.

No offense to anyone but I do business with AIG and I can assure that things are not “fine”. This massive beast has been ravaged in the market and I certainly would not characterize their loss of 95% of their market value as an indication that things are fine. They have diversified assets but again they must be sold to raise funds and where are the buyers? I do think AIG will survive, with assistance, but things are not fine.

As for a FFR cut, I still believe we will end up at 1.5% before the Fed begins tightening but I’m not so sure we will see a cut this year. The typical strategy has been to mix jawboning with some actual tangible intervention to keep things propped us as best they can. I do think we will see things get dire to point where the jawboning and intervention will not be enough to stave off a capitulation spiral, which is when the cuts get thrown at the problem. I quess we’ll see. No question there’s going to be alot more bad news coming.

[DaCounselor]

davelj you pretty much have it down. AIG has a ton of diversified assets, but the important question is what could those assets bring in a quick sale to boost AIG’s immediate liquidity problems. What their books say they are worth and even what third party estimates of asset values are do not answer the specific question of immediate valuation by prospective purchasers. In fact, we are indeed given a clue as to valuation in relation to risk assumption by the lack of scavenging of AIG’s assets, which speaks volumes.

No offense to anyone but I do business with AIG and I can assure that things are not “fine”. This massive beast has been ravaged in the market and I certainly would not characterize their loss of 95% of their market value as an indication that things are fine. They have diversified assets but again they must be sold to raise funds and where are the buyers? I do think AIG will survive, with assistance, but things are not fine.

As for a FFR cut, I still believe we will end up at 1.5% before the Fed begins tightening but I’m not so sure we will see a cut this year. The typical strategy has been to mix jawboning with some actual tangible intervention to keep things propped us as best they can. I do think we will see things get dire to point where the jawboning and intervention will not be enough to stave off a capitulation spiral, which is when the cuts get thrown at the problem. I quess we’ll see. No question there’s going to be alot more bad news coming.

[DaCounselor]

davelj you pretty much have it down. AIG has a ton of diversified assets, but the important question is what could those assets bring in a quick sale to boost AIG’s immediate liquidity problems. What their books say they are worth and even what third party estimates of asset values are do not answer the specific question of immediate valuation by prospective purchasers. In fact, we are indeed given a clue as to valuation in relation to risk assumption by the lack of scavenging of AIG’s assets, which speaks volumes.

No offense to anyone but I do business with AIG and I can assure that things are not “fine”. This massive beast has been ravaged in the market and I certainly would not characterize their loss of 95% of their market value as an indication that things are fine. They have diversified assets but again they must be sold to raise funds and where are the buyers? I do think AIG will survive, with assistance, but things are not fine.

As for a FFR cut, I still believe we will end up at 1.5% before the Fed begins tightening but I’m not so sure we will see a cut this year. The typical strategy has been to mix jawboning with some actual tangible intervention to keep things propped us as best they can. I do think we will see things get dire to point where the jawboning and intervention will not be enough to stave off a capitulation spiral, which is when the cuts get thrown at the problem. I quess we’ll see. No question there’s going to be alot more bad news coming.

[DaCounselor]

davelj you pretty much have it down. AIG has a ton of diversified assets, but the important question is what could those assets bring in a quick sale to boost AIG’s immediate liquidity problems. What their books say they are worth and even what third party estimates of asset values are do not answer the specific question of immediate valuation by prospective purchasers. In fact, we are indeed given a clue as to valuation in relation to risk assumption by the lack of scavenging of AIG’s assets, which speaks volumes.

No offense to anyone but I do business with AIG and I can assure that things are not “fine”. This massive beast has been ravaged in the market and I certainly would not characterize their loss of 95% of their market value as an indication that things are fine. They have diversified assets but again they must be sold to raise funds and where are the buyers? I do think AIG will survive, with assistance, but things are not fine.

As for a FFR cut, I still believe we will end up at 1.5% before the Fed begins tightening but I’m not so sure we will see a cut this year. The typical strategy has been to mix jawboning with some actual tangible intervention to keep things propped us as best they can. I do think we will see things get dire to point where the jawboning and intervention will not be enough to stave off a capitulation spiral, which is when the cuts get thrown at the problem. I quess we’ll see. No question there’s going to be alot more bad news coming.

[DaCounselor]

davelj you pretty much have it down. AIG has a ton of diversified assets, but the important question is what could those assets bring in a quick sale to boost AIG’s immediate liquidity problems. What their books say they are worth and even what third party estimates of asset values are do not answer the specific question of immediate valuation by prospective purchasers. In fact, we are indeed given a clue as to valuation in relation to risk assumption by the lack of scavenging of AIG’s assets, which speaks volumes.

No offense to anyone but I do business with AIG and I can assure that things are not “fine”. This massive beast has been ravaged in the market and I certainly would not characterize their loss of 95% of their market value as an indication that things are fine. They have diversified assets but again they must be sold to raise funds and where are the buyers? I do think AIG will survive, with assistance, but things are not fine.

As for a FFR cut, I still believe we will end up at 1.5% before the Fed begins tightening but I’m not so sure we will see a cut this year. The typical strategy has been to mix jawboning with some actual tangible intervention to keep things propped us as best they can. I do think we will see things get dire to point where the jawboning and intervention will not be enough to stave off a capitulation spiral, which is when the cuts get thrown at the problem. I quess we’ll see. No question there’s going to be alot more bad news coming.

[stockstradr]

Armageddon is when the rest of the world feels that the US tax payer cant afford to pay for this mess.

You’re close. I agree with the slant of your comment.

Armageddon is when foreign powers conclude the US will devalue the dollar to inflate our way out of massive debt (which we owe mostly to foreign nations). Then those nations will dump the dollar as the de facto reserve currency.

I believe that particular form of Armageddon is now INEVITABLE for the US dollar. It is merely a matter of time. The EURO, the RMB, and gold will likely benefit.

[stockstradr]

Armageddon is when the rest of the world feels that the US tax payer cant afford to pay for this mess.

You’re close. I agree with the slant of your comment.

Armageddon is when foreign powers conclude the US will devalue the dollar to inflate our way out of massive debt (which we owe mostly to foreign nations). Then those nations will dump the dollar as the de facto reserve currency.

I believe that particular form of Armageddon is now INEVITABLE for the US dollar. It is merely a matter of time. The EURO, the RMB, and gold will likely benefit.

[stockstradr]

Armageddon is when the rest of the world feels that the US tax payer cant afford to pay for this mess.

You’re close. I agree with the slant of your comment.

Armageddon is when foreign powers conclude the US will devalue the dollar to inflate our way out of massive debt (which we owe mostly to foreign nations). Then those nations will dump the dollar as the de facto reserve currency.

I believe that particular form of Armageddon is now INEVITABLE for the US dollar. It is merely a matter of time. The EURO, the RMB, and gold will likely benefit.

[stockstradr]

Armageddon is when the rest of the world feels that the US tax payer cant afford to pay for this mess.

You’re close. I agree with the slant of your comment.

Armageddon is when foreign powers conclude the US will devalue the dollar to inflate our way out of massive debt (which we owe mostly to foreign nations). Then those nations will dump the dollar as the de facto reserve currency.

I believe that particular form of Armageddon is now INEVITABLE for the US dollar. It is merely a matter of time. The EURO, the RMB, and gold will likely benefit.

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