Advice needed from the pros

[mercedes7]

Thanks SD realtor,

Actually the first 3 questions were rhetorical and I didn’t expect you to answer.

As for the last question related to price point and competition, you have a good point. I have been looking in 92120 (mostly Del Cerro), 92124, 92122, 92126 (certain areas), 92131, and 92129.

[TheSeaward]

Lurker here too – same stats as mercedes, except with slightly less for down payment, so I guess we are competition eh? Haha. Do you work in Sorrento Mesa too?

92126, 92129, 92131, 92122

[TheSeaward]

Lurker here too – same stats as mercedes, except with slightly less for down payment, so I guess we are competition eh? Haha. Do you work in Sorrento Mesa too?

92126, 92129, 92131, 92122

[TheSeaward]

Lurker here too – same stats as mercedes, except with slightly less for down payment, so I guess we are competition eh? Haha. Do you work in Sorrento Mesa too?

92126, 92129, 92131, 92122

[TheSeaward]

Lurker here too – same stats as mercedes, except with slightly less for down payment, so I guess we are competition eh? Haha. Do you work in Sorrento Mesa too?

92126, 92129, 92131, 92122

[TheSeaward]

Lurker here too – same stats as mercedes, except with slightly less for down payment, so I guess we are competition eh? Haha. Do you work in Sorrento Mesa too?

92126, 92129, 92131, 92122

[temeculaguy]

I see my name in the original post but I’m not a pro, far from it, my expertise and life’s work has nothing to do with real estate or economics. I merely learned this stuff online and what I have learned is confined to a very small area, the one I live in. Fundamentals are pretty universal, math works everywhere. I don’t like the math in the upper tier of the San Diego market, but after living vicariously through others for a few years on this site, I couldn’t guarantee you that it will get all that much better. I have a feeling that the market has found it’s spot and should chug along for a while without any wild swings either way. Some of the S.D. market has defied logic during the worst economic times of our lives, it has just as much chance of continuing that trend as it does of instantly reversing it.

But you are different, you have a big cash position. For you, higher interest rates would be a good thing, it will minimize the competition. I do think raes will move higher over time, if it were my money I’d wait to see if that bet plays out (actually if it were me I’d move to my hood, pay cash and never make a mortgage payment again, and still keep money in the bank, but I digress). I do think rates move higher in the next year, if you find the house you love this winter and can afford it, I won’t stop you, affordability and biting off less than you can chew is my favorite plan. But if you find the market frustrates you, with that much cash, you can sit it out a bit and just see what happens, nobody will get priced out before March 2010, winter always sucks for r/e and I highly doubt rates will go lower. Keep a watchfull eye on employment, if we string together a few good months just consider the fuse lit. You are in a an enviable position, you can act in an hour and r/e moves much slower.

Don’t put it all down, keep some reserves, it will help you sleep. Don’t overleverage, stay with the lifestyle you are comfortable with, your health will thank you. Living below one’s means benefits the mind, body and soul.

[temeculaguy]

I see my name in the original post but I’m not a pro, far from it, my expertise and life’s work has nothing to do with real estate or economics. I merely learned this stuff online and what I have learned is confined to a very small area, the one I live in. Fundamentals are pretty universal, math works everywhere. I don’t like the math in the upper tier of the San Diego market, but after living vicariously through others for a few years on this site, I couldn’t guarantee you that it will get all that much better. I have a feeling that the market has found it’s spot and should chug along for a while without any wild swings either way. Some of the S.D. market has defied logic during the worst economic times of our lives, it has just as much chance of continuing that trend as it does of instantly reversing it.

But you are different, you have a big cash position. For you, higher interest rates would be a good thing, it will minimize the competition. I do think raes will move higher over time, if it were my money I’d wait to see if that bet plays out (actually if it were me I’d move to my hood, pay cash and never make a mortgage payment again, and still keep money in the bank, but I digress). I do think rates move higher in the next year, if you find the house you love this winter and can afford it, I won’t stop you, affordability and biting off less than you can chew is my favorite plan. But if you find the market frustrates you, with that much cash, you can sit it out a bit and just see what happens, nobody will get priced out before March 2010, winter always sucks for r/e and I highly doubt rates will go lower. Keep a watchfull eye on employment, if we string together a few good months just consider the fuse lit. You are in a an enviable position, you can act in an hour and r/e moves much slower.

Don’t put it all down, keep some reserves, it will help you sleep. Don’t overleverage, stay with the lifestyle you are comfortable with, your health will thank you. Living below one’s means benefits the mind, body and soul.

[temeculaguy]

I see my name in the original post but I’m not a pro, far from it, my expertise and life’s work has nothing to do with real estate or economics. I merely learned this stuff online and what I have learned is confined to a very small area, the one I live in. Fundamentals are pretty universal, math works everywhere. I don’t like the math in the upper tier of the San Diego market, but after living vicariously through others for a few years on this site, I couldn’t guarantee you that it will get all that much better. I have a feeling that the market has found it’s spot and should chug along for a while without any wild swings either way. Some of the S.D. market has defied logic during the worst economic times of our lives, it has just as much chance of continuing that trend as it does of instantly reversing it.

But you are different, you have a big cash position. For you, higher interest rates would be a good thing, it will minimize the competition. I do think raes will move higher over time, if it were my money I’d wait to see if that bet plays out (actually if it were me I’d move to my hood, pay cash and never make a mortgage payment again, and still keep money in the bank, but I digress). I do think rates move higher in the next year, if you find the house you love this winter and can afford it, I won’t stop you, affordability and biting off less than you can chew is my favorite plan. But if you find the market frustrates you, with that much cash, you can sit it out a bit and just see what happens, nobody will get priced out before March 2010, winter always sucks for r/e and I highly doubt rates will go lower. Keep a watchfull eye on employment, if we string together a few good months just consider the fuse lit. You are in a an enviable position, you can act in an hour and r/e moves much slower.

Don’t put it all down, keep some reserves, it will help you sleep. Don’t overleverage, stay with the lifestyle you are comfortable with, your health will thank you. Living below one’s means benefits the mind, body and soul.

[temeculaguy]

I see my name in the original post but I’m not a pro, far from it, my expertise and life’s work has nothing to do with real estate or economics. I merely learned this stuff online and what I have learned is confined to a very small area, the one I live in. Fundamentals are pretty universal, math works everywhere. I don’t like the math in the upper tier of the San Diego market, but after living vicariously through others for a few years on this site, I couldn’t guarantee you that it will get all that much better. I have a feeling that the market has found it’s spot and should chug along for a while without any wild swings either way. Some of the S.D. market has defied logic during the worst economic times of our lives, it has just as much chance of continuing that trend as it does of instantly reversing it.

But you are different, you have a big cash position. For you, higher interest rates would be a good thing, it will minimize the competition. I do think raes will move higher over time, if it were my money I’d wait to see if that bet plays out (actually if it were me I’d move to my hood, pay cash and never make a mortgage payment again, and still keep money in the bank, but I digress). I do think rates move higher in the next year, if you find the house you love this winter and can afford it, I won’t stop you, affordability and biting off less than you can chew is my favorite plan. But if you find the market frustrates you, with that much cash, you can sit it out a bit and just see what happens, nobody will get priced out before March 2010, winter always sucks for r/e and I highly doubt rates will go lower. Keep a watchfull eye on employment, if we string together a few good months just consider the fuse lit. You are in a an enviable position, you can act in an hour and r/e moves much slower.

Don’t put it all down, keep some reserves, it will help you sleep. Don’t overleverage, stay with the lifestyle you are comfortable with, your health will thank you. Living below one’s means benefits the mind, body and soul.

[temeculaguy]

I see my name in the original post but I’m not a pro, far from it, my expertise and life’s work has nothing to do with real estate or economics. I merely learned this stuff online and what I have learned is confined to a very small area, the one I live in. Fundamentals are pretty universal, math works everywhere. I don’t like the math in the upper tier of the San Diego market, but after living vicariously through others for a few years on this site, I couldn’t guarantee you that it will get all that much better. I have a feeling that the market has found it’s spot and should chug along for a while without any wild swings either way. Some of the S.D. market has defied logic during the worst economic times of our lives, it has just as much chance of continuing that trend as it does of instantly reversing it.

But you are different, you have a big cash position. For you, higher interest rates would be a good thing, it will minimize the competition. I do think raes will move higher over time, if it were my money I’d wait to see if that bet plays out (actually if it were me I’d move to my hood, pay cash and never make a mortgage payment again, and still keep money in the bank, but I digress). I do think rates move higher in the next year, if you find the house you love this winter and can afford it, I won’t stop you, affordability and biting off less than you can chew is my favorite plan. But if you find the market frustrates you, with that much cash, you can sit it out a bit and just see what happens, nobody will get priced out before March 2010, winter always sucks for r/e and I highly doubt rates will go lower. Keep a watchfull eye on employment, if we string together a few good months just consider the fuse lit. You are in a an enviable position, you can act in an hour and r/e moves much slower.

Don’t put it all down, keep some reserves, it will help you sleep. Don’t overleverage, stay with the lifestyle you are comfortable with, your health will thank you. Living below one’s means benefits the mind, body and soul.

[SD Realtor]

Mercedes and Seaward you guys are not alone in the zips you have mentioned and the price points as well.

I think that 92122, 92124, and 92131 have the potentially the highest probability of price reductions in the next 1-2 years out simply because of the current median prices in those areas.

92126 is a bit tougher of a play. The 300k 1200 sf 92126 seems to have hit a support level that is not just consisting of purchases by owner occupants but also of investors as well. So I think it will be challending to see that having alot of play left in to the downside but I suppose anything could happen with an inventory flood.

92129 is crazytown right now. I can see it going back down again but even in the hard slide of late 08 it seemed to find support levels in the high 400s and mid 500s depending on which part of 92129 you were looking in. There are some really strong elementary schools down off of Black Mountain Road that draw alot of homeshoppers there.

Other areas you guys may want to consider could be 92119 or 92124 as well. A little lower price but also lower desired may be 92123.

*************

I know I am not giving you answers you crave though. I know you really want to know will it be worthwhile to wait. Can I promise you a 15% decline in a year or two? I cannot. I wish I could. If there was not wizard of barney frank I would be more confident. If the market were not manipulate and if the government was not controlled by Wall St I would say yes. Surely unemployment and distress would cause one to say this is a no brainer. I still say that your best bet is a hope of China shutting down the credit pipeline causing interest rate shock. Sorry for not being able to give you a for sure… Maybe in a few months things will trend in a more clear direction. Sounds like you both have some time which is good. Lets see how things look in the spring.

[SD Realtor]

Mercedes and Seaward you guys are not alone in the zips you have mentioned and the price points as well.

I think that 92122, 92124, and 92131 have the potentially the highest probability of price reductions in the next 1-2 years out simply because of the current median prices in those areas.

92126 is a bit tougher of a play. The 300k 1200 sf 92126 seems to have hit a support level that is not just consisting of purchases by owner occupants but also of investors as well. So I think it will be challending to see that having alot of play left in to the downside but I suppose anything could happen with an inventory flood.

92129 is crazytown right now. I can see it going back down again but even in the hard slide of late 08 it seemed to find support levels in the high 400s and mid 500s depending on which part of 92129 you were looking in. There are some really strong elementary schools down off of Black Mountain Road that draw alot of homeshoppers there.

Other areas you guys may want to consider could be 92119 or 92124 as well. A little lower price but also lower desired may be 92123.

*************

I know I am not giving you answers you crave though. I know you really want to know will it be worthwhile to wait. Can I promise you a 15% decline in a year or two? I cannot. I wish I could. If there was not wizard of barney frank I would be more confident. If the market were not manipulate and if the government was not controlled by Wall St I would say yes. Surely unemployment and distress would cause one to say this is a no brainer. I still say that your best bet is a hope of China shutting down the credit pipeline causing interest rate shock. Sorry for not being able to give you a for sure… Maybe in a few months things will trend in a more clear direction. Sounds like you both have some time which is good. Lets see how things look in the spring.

[SD Realtor]

Mercedes and Seaward you guys are not alone in the zips you have mentioned and the price points as well.

I think that 92122, 92124, and 92131 have the potentially the highest probability of price reductions in the next 1-2 years out simply because of the current median prices in those areas.

92126 is a bit tougher of a play. The 300k 1200 sf 92126 seems to have hit a support level that is not just consisting of purchases by owner occupants but also of investors as well. So I think it will be challending to see that having alot of play left in to the downside but I suppose anything could happen with an inventory flood.

92129 is crazytown right now. I can see it going back down again but even in the hard slide of late 08 it seemed to find support levels in the high 400s and mid 500s depending on which part of 92129 you were looking in. There are some really strong elementary schools down off of Black Mountain Road that draw alot of homeshoppers there.

Other areas you guys may want to consider could be 92119 or 92124 as well. A little lower price but also lower desired may be 92123.

*************

I know I am not giving you answers you crave though. I know you really want to know will it be worthwhile to wait. Can I promise you a 15% decline in a year or two? I cannot. I wish I could. If there was not wizard of barney frank I would be more confident. If the market were not manipulate and if the government was not controlled by Wall St I would say yes. Surely unemployment and distress would cause one to say this is a no brainer. I still say that your best bet is a hope of China shutting down the credit pipeline causing interest rate shock. Sorry for not being able to give you a for sure… Maybe in a few months things will trend in a more clear direction. Sounds like you both have some time which is good. Lets see how things look in the spring.

[SD Realtor]

Mercedes and Seaward you guys are not alone in the zips you have mentioned and the price points as well.

I think that 92122, 92124, and 92131 have the potentially the highest probability of price reductions in the next 1-2 years out simply because of the current median prices in those areas.

92126 is a bit tougher of a play. The 300k 1200 sf 92126 seems to have hit a support level that is not just consisting of purchases by owner occupants but also of investors as well. So I think it will be challending to see that having alot of play left in to the downside but I suppose anything could happen with an inventory flood.

92129 is crazytown right now. I can see it going back down again but even in the hard slide of late 08 it seemed to find support levels in the high 400s and mid 500s depending on which part of 92129 you were looking in. There are some really strong elementary schools down off of Black Mountain Road that draw alot of homeshoppers there.

Other areas you guys may want to consider could be 92119 or 92124 as well. A little lower price but also lower desired may be 92123.

*************

I know I am not giving you answers you crave though. I know you really want to know will it be worthwhile to wait. Can I promise you a 15% decline in a year or two? I cannot. I wish I could. If there was not wizard of barney frank I would be more confident. If the market were not manipulate and if the government was not controlled by Wall St I would say yes. Surely unemployment and distress would cause one to say this is a no brainer. I still say that your best bet is a hope of China shutting down the credit pipeline causing interest rate shock. Sorry for not being able to give you a for sure… Maybe in a few months things will trend in a more clear direction. Sounds like you both have some time which is good. Lets see how things look in the spring.

[Author]

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