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April 13, 2006 at 1:06 PM #6482April 13, 2006 at 1:34 PM #24192powaysellerParticipant
Good point. We’ve been discussing this in the forums over the past month. Check out the topic “Bob Casagrand’s March 2006 Report”.
April 13, 2006 at 2:04 PM #24193pencilneckParticipantThanks Poway, I didn’t realize that this had been discussed and at such length.
I read Bob’s article a few weeks ago but didn’t give it much thought. Last night I had what I thought was an epiphany, and it suddenly made sense how the median could keep going up. Upon re-reading Bob’s article, it now occurs to me that I am just reiterating his message in a clumsier language.
I’ll have to keep an eye on these epiphanies.
April 13, 2006 at 3:20 PM #24195AnonymousGuestI do not believe that will occur, although the logic does seem to make sense. It will take a substantial rise from here for that to happen, at last check the year over year numbers are under 6% and this is the prime season. If this type of thing was playing out, I think the median price would be rising alot more right now.
Of course, the median price is really not worth that much in fully assessing the market anyway and it’s health or lack thereof.
The only thing I see on the horizon that makes me question whether a big drop is at hand or not is that so many people are talking about it, and the herd is usually wrong at the turns. This is just my futures trading background talking in my “inner monologue” kinda like Austin Powers. Oh, did I say that out loud?
April 13, 2006 at 5:26 PM #24200powaysellerParticipantIt is happening: median price is slightly up, although each individual house is worth 5-10% less than last summer.
Yes, many people are talking about it, but check the newest topic Rich has on the main site. We’ve discussed that the word bubble, as used by the masses and the media, is thought by those groups to mean a slight pullback, followed by a small rise or even plateau of prices. The number of people who believe in the true bubble, a letting out of all their air of speculation, is probably less than 1/2% of the population. Look at how few of us are on this board! We are the forerunners in knowing about this housing bubble, and the recession.
Don’t even think that the bubble idea is widespread and accepted. It is not.
April 13, 2006 at 9:07 PM #24209sdduuuudeParticipantI’m wondering if any evidence shows this phenomenon started in mid 2004, early 2005. Anyone? Anyone?
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