Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › 95% of US economists missed the last recession AFTER it had already started
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bigtrouble.
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September 8, 2006 at 12:56 PM #7447September 8, 2006 at 1:17 PM #34702
PerryChase
Participantpowayseller, William Wheaton, professor of economics and former director of the Center for Real Estate at MIT, is also an economist prediction a real estate crash. I’ve not read much on him so I’m not sure he’s a realist like Roubini.
September 8, 2006 at 1:18 PM #34705PerryChase
Participantduplicate
September 8, 2006 at 1:27 PM #34708CAwireman
ParticipantThe conflict of interest point that Roubini makes is key.
"Its hard to believe something when your occupation depends upon you not believing it" Mark Twain
September 8, 2006 at 1:32 PM #34710Roman
ParticipantIn today’s real estate poll from CNN Money, here are the results to the burning question (these is online now)
1. How bad will the housing market get?
Crash 22%
Regional bubbles will burst 46%
Gradual orderly slowdown 25%
Too early to say 7%total responses to this question: 12298
September 8, 2006 at 4:11 PM #34747sdduuuude
ParticipantJust for the record, I think there is a recession coming. I don’t know how we could possibly avoid it.
I just think the early 2007 timeline is a bit early, given the painfully slow speed at which this bubble is deflating. Not only does housing have to come down alot further, but the effects of that have to move throughout the economy. I just think it will take time – very late 2007 or early 2008, possibly highlighted by a very nasty 2007 holiday retail season.
Remember – we are boiling the frog alive, here. Not dropping it into a pot of boiling water.
Also, San Diego is on the front of the housing bubble deflation. The rest of the nation has to experience the economic pain in order to make the nationwide numbers say “recession.” SD may hit recessionary conditions earlier, but the national numbers should lag SD by several months.
September 8, 2006 at 4:19 PM #34750powayseller
ParticipantRouhini’s recession call is based on a repeat of what happened to GDP in the last recession. We went from 5.6% in Q1 to 2.9% in Q2. He expects this slowdown to continue, so that by Q1 07, this GDP growth is negative. This same trend happened in 2000: we went from approx 5% to approx 2% growth qoq, and then the next quarter we had negative growth. It took only 2 quarters to move from over 5% GDP growth to negative GDP growth. I was also surprised that it can happen that quickly.
A recession is negative qoq growth in GDP for at least 2 quarters.
I agree that the slowdown will exacerbate after the recession offically begins, so this is probably going to be one of our longer recessions.
September 8, 2006 at 10:01 PM #34792powayseller
ParticipantHSBC warns of recession ahead.
Funny, how these recession calls seem to increase in number as we get closer to the recession. These guys should have made this announcement a year ago, when it was really more of a forecast; now it’s an obvious conclusion, since the slowdown is already happening.
September 8, 2006 at 10:11 PM #34793bigtrouble
ParticipantIn march 2001 95% of economist predicted no recession.
By Sept. 12th of that year, many had changed their minds.
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