92126, 92127 “inventory” declining… whats happening?

[pnilesh]

I always visit sdlookup.com and I have seen declining inventories. There is a field in sdlookup.com that says “All homes” in a specified zip code. This field is updated daily and I assume it reflects inventory in a particular zip code.

In 92126, it has declined from 345 –> 282.
In 92127, it decreased from 354 –> 325.

So what is happening? Are people having too much money to pay mortgage even after the ARM resets?

I want to see bloodbath in 92126 so that I can buy a condo closer to my work place. When will it happen?

[pencilneck]

I don’t know whats going on in these particular zip copes. However, one theory behind dropping inventory is that a large percentage of homes were on the market last year by owners testing the market; unmotivated sellers looking to cash out for the right price.

Many of these people have taken their homes off the market and waiting for a rebound.

Thats one theory anyhow, and I’ve seen a lot of it in my neighborhood (North Park). But if anyone has a better explanation I’d love to hear it.

[pencilneck]

I don’t know whats going on in these particular zip copes. However, one theory behind dropping inventory is that a large percentage of homes were on the market last year by owners testing the market; unmotivated sellers looking to cash out for the right price.

Many of these people have taken their homes off the market and waiting for a rebound.

Thats one theory anyhow, and I’ve seen a lot of it in my neighborhood (North Park). But if anyone has a better explanation I’d love to hear it.

[BuyerWillEPB]

I know in Clairemont they have been taking many houses off the MLS but keeping the For Sale signs up. When I see a house taken off the MLS, I first check Zillow.com to see if it was sold and for how much. If it doesn’t show up as sold I drive by and usually see the For Sale sign still swinging in the breeze. Also, some of the houses have been rented.

And even a few are still attempting the remodel and flip scam that is sooooo yesterday.

I have a sneaky suspicion that the lenders are holding back many of their REOs and listing only a few to try and keep the appearance of lower inventory. By the end of this year, there will be so many foreclosures, they won’t be able to do this anymore.

Perhaps these same things are happening in the zip codes you mention.

[BuyerWillEPB]

I know in Clairemont they have been taking many houses off the MLS but keeping the For Sale signs up. When I see a house taken off the MLS, I first check Zillow.com to see if it was sold and for how much. If it doesn’t show up as sold I drive by and usually see the For Sale sign still swinging in the breeze. Also, some of the houses have been rented.

And even a few are still attempting the remodel and flip scam that is sooooo yesterday.

I have a sneaky suspicion that the lenders are holding back many of their REOs and listing only a few to try and keep the appearance of lower inventory. By the end of this year, there will be so many foreclosures, they won’t be able to do this anymore.

Perhaps these same things are happening in the zip codes you mention.

[Bugs]

Past a certain point it somewhat doesn’t matter how many listings there are. Too many is too many, and only the most motivated (i.e., distressed) sellers are going to compete hard enough to be among the few.

92126 had a total of 58 sales in June 2007 and 92127 had 42 sales. What difference does it make if a zip area only has 400% more listings than sales vs 500%?

[Bugs]

Past a certain point it somewhat doesn’t matter how many listings there are. Too many is too many, and only the most motivated (i.e., distressed) sellers are going to compete hard enough to be among the few.

92126 had a total of 58 sales in June 2007 and 92127 had 42 sales. What difference does it make if a zip area only has 400% more listings than sales vs 500%?

[lniles]

Try searching for “bank owned” or “foreclosure” on craigslist. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

[lniles]

Try searching for “bank owned” or “foreclosure” on craigslist. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

[JWM in SD]

In my opinion, the moderately shrinking inventory is a good sign because it means that there are knifecatchers out there who are whittling away at the comps. Let them continue to think they got a “good deal”…we know better here.

[JWM in SD]

In my opinion, the moderately shrinking inventory is a good sign because it means that there are knifecatchers out there who are whittling away at the comps. Let them continue to think they got a “good deal”…we know better here.

[SD Realtor]

The past 2 depreciation cycles took 6 years to unwind.

Why should this cycle be any different considering that we are in only the 2nd year of the cycle? Pnilesh if you want to get the very best price then you should not even be thinking of purchasing for at least another 2-3 years.

Also as many of you already know secondary advertising such as Craigslist are used all the time by Realtors.

Pnilesh, just a question, why do you think a bloodbath will happen imminently?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

The past 2 depreciation cycles took 6 years to unwind.

Why should this cycle be any different considering that we are in only the 2nd year of the cycle? Pnilesh if you want to get the very best price then you should not even be thinking of purchasing for at least another 2-3 years.

Also as many of you already know secondary advertising such as Craigslist are used all the time by Realtors.

Pnilesh, just a question, why do you think a bloodbath will happen imminently?

SD Realtor

[PerryChase]

Remember that when a home is taken off the market, it sits empty. That home will become inventory at some future point. Investors, wealthy as they maybe, can only endure negative cash flows for so long.

Interesting point to note is that the stock market is in a rally because the big cap are globalized companies. The world economy is now doing much better than America. I expect this real estate downturn to last 10 years.

Think about it this way: if wealthy investors think that the downturn will last 6 years and have enough wherewithal to last that long; but the RE slump hangs in there, they might give up in year 7 or year 8. So, with cash in hand, you can find killer deals then.

Right now, the general thinking is that RE will appreciate again in 2009. If it doesn’t happen, you’ll see a lot of people starting to give up in the fall/winter of 2009. That will feed on it itself just like it did when prices were going up.

[PerryChase]

Remember that when a home is taken off the market, it sits empty. That home will become inventory at some future point. Investors, wealthy as they maybe, can only endure negative cash flows for so long.

Interesting point to note is that the stock market is in a rally because the big cap are globalized companies. The world economy is now doing much better than America. I expect this real estate downturn to last 10 years.

Think about it this way: if wealthy investors think that the downturn will last 6 years and have enough wherewithal to last that long; but the RE slump hangs in there, they might give up in year 7 or year 8. So, with cash in hand, you can find killer deals then.

Right now, the general thinking is that RE will appreciate again in 2009. If it doesn’t happen, you’ll see a lot of people starting to give up in the fall/winter of 2009. That will feed on it itself just like it did when prices were going up.

[Author]

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