7.6 % drop in new home sales in Dec. But, aren’t people celebrating the holidays in Dec?

[CAwireman]

Drop in December new-home sales fuels concern over recent gains

By Renae Merle
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 28, 2010

The battered market for new homes ended 2009 with a whimper, according to government data released Wednesday, fueling concern that recent improvements in the housing sector could be short-lived.

In December, new-home sales fell 7.6 percent from the previous month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000, according to the Commerce Department. Sales were down 8.6 percent compared with the same period a year earlier.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/27/AR2010012703202.html?hpid=topnews

Well okay, down 8.6 from Dec of last year. That’s significant.

[CA renter]

How much of this is due to lower inventory?

Last year, many builders were trying to clear out inventory. Since then, they’ve built very little, and gotten rid of much of their standing inventory.

I have no idea, just trying to throw theories out there.

As far as existing-home sales are concerned, I think it’s the lack of inventory that is hampering sales. It might be the same for new sales.

The MSM might be gearing up for a new “panic” so the Fed is left with no option but to continue forcing rates well below where they ought to be. Whenever it looks like the stimulus and low interest rate programs might be withdrawn, they come up with a new excuse for the “hair of the dog” stimulus to continue.

Long live the “War on Savers” 🙁

[CA renter]

How much of this is due to lower inventory?

Last year, many builders were trying to clear out inventory. Since then, they’ve built very little, and gotten rid of much of their standing inventory.

I have no idea, just trying to throw theories out there.

As far as existing-home sales are concerned, I think it’s the lack of inventory that is hampering sales. It might be the same for new sales.

The MSM might be gearing up for a new “panic” so the Fed is left with no option but to continue forcing rates well below where they ought to be. Whenever it looks like the stimulus and low interest rate programs might be withdrawn, they come up with a new excuse for the “hair of the dog” stimulus to continue.

Long live the “War on Savers” 🙁

[CA renter]

How much of this is due to lower inventory?

Last year, many builders were trying to clear out inventory. Since then, they’ve built very little, and gotten rid of much of their standing inventory.

I have no idea, just trying to throw theories out there.

As far as existing-home sales are concerned, I think it’s the lack of inventory that is hampering sales. It might be the same for new sales.

The MSM might be gearing up for a new “panic” so the Fed is left with no option but to continue forcing rates well below where they ought to be. Whenever it looks like the stimulus and low interest rate programs might be withdrawn, they come up with a new excuse for the “hair of the dog” stimulus to continue.

Long live the “War on Savers” 🙁

[CA renter]

How much of this is due to lower inventory?

Last year, many builders were trying to clear out inventory. Since then, they’ve built very little, and gotten rid of much of their standing inventory.

I have no idea, just trying to throw theories out there.

As far as existing-home sales are concerned, I think it’s the lack of inventory that is hampering sales. It might be the same for new sales.

The MSM might be gearing up for a new “panic” so the Fed is left with no option but to continue forcing rates well below where they ought to be. Whenever it looks like the stimulus and low interest rate programs might be withdrawn, they come up with a new excuse for the “hair of the dog” stimulus to continue.

Long live the “War on Savers” 🙁

[CA renter]

How much of this is due to lower inventory?

Last year, many builders were trying to clear out inventory. Since then, they’ve built very little, and gotten rid of much of their standing inventory.

I have no idea, just trying to throw theories out there.

As far as existing-home sales are concerned, I think it’s the lack of inventory that is hampering sales. It might be the same for new sales.

The MSM might be gearing up for a new “panic” so the Fed is left with no option but to continue forcing rates well below where they ought to be. Whenever it looks like the stimulus and low interest rate programs might be withdrawn, they come up with a new excuse for the “hair of the dog” stimulus to continue.

Long live the “War on Savers” 🙁

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I think it’s a little like the chicken and the egg (at least for Coastal SoCal inland not so much)

I don’t think you will see a lot of new homes being built/sold until prices have started to rise (and no home prices don’t just go down they will go up sometimes as well).

I don’t think it will take as long for them to start to build/sell inland again as just a lot more cheap land available but even then I just don’t see a lot of building happening until home prices start to raise some.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I think it’s a little like the chicken and the egg (at least for Coastal SoCal inland not so much)

I don’t think you will see a lot of new homes being built/sold until prices have started to rise (and no home prices don’t just go down they will go up sometimes as well).

I don’t think it will take as long for them to start to build/sell inland again as just a lot more cheap land available but even then I just don’t see a lot of building happening until home prices start to raise some.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I think it’s a little like the chicken and the egg (at least for Coastal SoCal inland not so much)

I don’t think you will see a lot of new homes being built/sold until prices have started to rise (and no home prices don’t just go down they will go up sometimes as well).

I don’t think it will take as long for them to start to build/sell inland again as just a lot more cheap land available but even then I just don’t see a lot of building happening until home prices start to raise some.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I think it’s a little like the chicken and the egg (at least for Coastal SoCal inland not so much)

I don’t think you will see a lot of new homes being built/sold until prices have started to rise (and no home prices don’t just go down they will go up sometimes as well).

I don’t think it will take as long for them to start to build/sell inland again as just a lot more cheap land available but even then I just don’t see a lot of building happening until home prices start to raise some.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

I think it’s a little like the chicken and the egg (at least for Coastal SoCal inland not so much)

I don’t think you will see a lot of new homes being built/sold until prices have started to rise (and no home prices don’t just go down they will go up sometimes as well).

I don’t think it will take as long for them to start to build/sell inland again as just a lot more cheap land available but even then I just don’t see a lot of building happening until home prices start to raise some.

[creechrr]

After much consideration, my wife and I started seriously looking for a place in December.

We’ve spent much time running numbers, I created a calculator in Excel to help with the decision making process. It’s been several years and the calculator still says no but, we figured there had to be something that we just weren’t seeing.

We got our loan approval and seriously started to look. So far, what a waste of time.

1) There are only a handful of places that we can even begin to hope to afford on the market.

2) The places that we have come across all have multiple offers. We’re talking day one of listing.

3) There is a bubblie feeling in the air just as there was a few years ago. We don’t want to get caught up in a bidding war for a place that we can’t really afford.

So, I think we have given up once again. We have come to the conclusion that we must be doing IT wrong. We just don’t know what IT is.

I’d like to point out that our search hasn’t been confined the desirable areas. We don’t focus on Carmel Valley, PQ, RB or Scripps.

We’ve considered parts of Chula Vista, Kearny Mesa, and even Santee. We’ve even looked at Escondido and Vista but, then both commutes become rediculous (quality of life).

So, we’ll probably be looking at apartments once again. Even there it seems as though rents have started to creep up vs. what we were seeing October/November of last year.

Oh, my point of all this being that inventory seems to be severely constrained within the county.

[creechrr]

After much consideration, my wife and I started seriously looking for a place in December.

We’ve spent much time running numbers, I created a calculator in Excel to help with the decision making process. It’s been several years and the calculator still says no but, we figured there had to be something that we just weren’t seeing.

We got our loan approval and seriously started to look. So far, what a waste of time.

1) There are only a handful of places that we can even begin to hope to afford on the market.

2) The places that we have come across all have multiple offers. We’re talking day one of listing.

3) There is a bubblie feeling in the air just as there was a few years ago. We don’t want to get caught up in a bidding war for a place that we can’t really afford.

So, I think we have given up once again. We have come to the conclusion that we must be doing IT wrong. We just don’t know what IT is.

I’d like to point out that our search hasn’t been confined the desirable areas. We don’t focus on Carmel Valley, PQ, RB or Scripps.

We’ve considered parts of Chula Vista, Kearny Mesa, and even Santee. We’ve even looked at Escondido and Vista but, then both commutes become rediculous (quality of life).

So, we’ll probably be looking at apartments once again. Even there it seems as though rents have started to creep up vs. what we were seeing October/November of last year.

Oh, my point of all this being that inventory seems to be severely constrained within the county.

[creechrr]

After much consideration, my wife and I started seriously looking for a place in December.

We’ve spent much time running numbers, I created a calculator in Excel to help with the decision making process. It’s been several years and the calculator still says no but, we figured there had to be something that we just weren’t seeing.

We got our loan approval and seriously started to look. So far, what a waste of time.

1) There are only a handful of places that we can even begin to hope to afford on the market.

2) The places that we have come across all have multiple offers. We’re talking day one of listing.

3) There is a bubblie feeling in the air just as there was a few years ago. We don’t want to get caught up in a bidding war for a place that we can’t really afford.

So, I think we have given up once again. We have come to the conclusion that we must be doing IT wrong. We just don’t know what IT is.

I’d like to point out that our search hasn’t been confined the desirable areas. We don’t focus on Carmel Valley, PQ, RB or Scripps.

We’ve considered parts of Chula Vista, Kearny Mesa, and even Santee. We’ve even looked at Escondido and Vista but, then both commutes become rediculous (quality of life).

So, we’ll probably be looking at apartments once again. Even there it seems as though rents have started to creep up vs. what we were seeing October/November of last year.

Oh, my point of all this being that inventory seems to be severely constrained within the county.

[creechrr]

After much consideration, my wife and I started seriously looking for a place in December.

We’ve spent much time running numbers, I created a calculator in Excel to help with the decision making process. It’s been several years and the calculator still says no but, we figured there had to be something that we just weren’t seeing.

We got our loan approval and seriously started to look. So far, what a waste of time.

1) There are only a handful of places that we can even begin to hope to afford on the market.

2) The places that we have come across all have multiple offers. We’re talking day one of listing.

3) There is a bubblie feeling in the air just as there was a few years ago. We don’t want to get caught up in a bidding war for a place that we can’t really afford.

So, I think we have given up once again. We have come to the conclusion that we must be doing IT wrong. We just don’t know what IT is.

I’d like to point out that our search hasn’t been confined the desirable areas. We don’t focus on Carmel Valley, PQ, RB or Scripps.

We’ve considered parts of Chula Vista, Kearny Mesa, and even Santee. We’ve even looked at Escondido and Vista but, then both commutes become rediculous (quality of life).

So, we’ll probably be looking at apartments once again. Even there it seems as though rents have started to creep up vs. what we were seeing October/November of last year.

Oh, my point of all this being that inventory seems to be severely constrained within the county.

[Author]

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