4S Builders to Stop Building??

[wantobuy]

Hi robyns_song, I agree with you on John Laing’s quality and layout, and we like Plan 2/3 a lot. If it was for plan 2 or 3, I’d think $600K would be a good deal. It seems there are quite a few in the forum interested in 4S ranch, would be nice if we can have a separate thread or something like to discuss 4s…

[robyns_song]

Everyone wants such precise details!

I think it was two weeks ago (definately no more than three). We’d looked at the John Laing homes before and the office in the previous weeks had been full but it was a Sunday afternoon and they were pretty slow. They had only one other couple there who was asking a lot of questions about prices of the upgrades (which they declined to show us a copy of the price list…they apparently won’t provide that until after you sign the papers). Anyway we were talking with an older lady there for probably 20-30 minutes about the area and let her know we were very skeptical about the market…yada yada yada. We pointed out that the house they had availble just fell out of escrow. In the end, she asked if we were interested and we let her know that we liked it, but didn’t think it was worth more than $650K so she said that she could work it out. Were it not for the high mello-roos and property taxes we would have been tempted.

We have a friend who is an agent who thought we were insane for not trying to get them to throw in the mello roos and take the offer (she said that the builders will sometimes pay the mello roos if you ask them to–I’m not sure how common that is). Like I said, we’ve never delt with builders before and weren’t aware that it was unusual for them to negotiate.

[Cow_tipping]

Its just my intuition at work here, or maybe not …
But do houses in remote areas and with weird useless features like heated and cooled door knobs or motion detecting mirror lights tend to go waaaay up in price over the less glamorous but practical houses like close to job centers and simple basic good areas but nothing in cool factor in markets that are shooting up. And the reverse happens in down markets. Aka useless remote crap crashes, and the well located and practical ones hold up far better.
The comparison I’d make is, stock of webvan and Pets.com were selling for much more than Bank of america or dupont in the tech boom. Its a fuzzy analogy but I cant think of any better.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

[sdcellar]

A little late to the party, but my opinion is that it’s someplace in the middle. I’ve been watching 4S Ranch for about a year now, and they have definitely slowed down construction. In my opinion, it’s simply an issue of inventory control. Given the choice between empty lots and empty homes, I think some builders are choosing empty lots.

I agree with Bugs that at some point, the best thing to do is get these suckers built, sold, and get out of Dodge unless the builder believes things are going to turn around (which I don’t think they really do).

Now with John Laing and these Silhouette homes specifcally, I can tell you that they have, for all practical purposes, stopped construction. The 10 or so completed homes you see were started a year ago and finished, I don’t know, maybe 6 months ago. They can absolutely build more and faster, but they’re not. Unless they’ve put up sticks in the last 3 weeks, the foundations you see have been there for almost a year.

They seem intent on finishing Rosemary Lane first and that is going pretty slowly as well although it is *almost* finished.

John Laing seems to be the slowest in 4S Ranch right now and while I agree that they seem as good (or better) than anything available right now, they’re just not selling. They dropped their prices significantly (twice) in the last year, but it’s been a while since the last reduction occurred (maybe 5 months?). I can get you exact dates and reductions if you’re interested.

I think you’re right on the money with a lower offer. They had one on the MLS since late last year that just went off (I assume it sold) and that was at $714,000. It never hurts to ask.

One other footnote is that John Laing was purchased about a year ago by Emaar Properties, a Dubai-based developer. I believe they have a gazillion dollars and certainly that could affect JLH’s dynamics just a little differently than other builders. Of course, a lot of their money is in real estate, so perhaps it’s only a matter of time before they only have a bazillion dollars…

[robyns_song]

Sdcellar, thanks for the info on when the foundations were poured. We were walking around on them trying to find a date, but weren’t able to locate one. At what points last year did they reduce their prices?

We actually live off of Alva Rd, less than a mile from where Silhouette is building, so we’ve been tracking them lately…there’s a whole lot of nothing going on.

[wantobuy]

Hi robyns_song – was the house you mentioned Plan 1? I went to their office, and there are only two plan 1 houses (about 2500 sqft) available. One fell out of escrow from Phase 1, ready to move in, with flooring/granite countertop/steel appliances/… included, it’s funny that because they included flooring (claimed > $20K), so they actually raised the price tag to $72K from $70K (was the price at the end of last year). The other plan 1 house is from phase 2, move in date is this September.

[wantobuy]

Hi Sdcellar, Thanks a lot for your great infor on Silhouette. can you tell us the two price reductions last year (when and how much?), but this year it seems they have not reduced the price. While the strategy of Pienza (by fieldstone) seems to release as many houses as possible to catch this spring bounce (there is a another release this Sat), which I think is a good strategy, today the sales lady told me that John Laing’s strategy is take it slow course it thinks it’ll make more money in the long run…

[Bugs]

If they’re serious about moving those lots they mght be able to come up with some smaller floorplans, more stock finishes, and fewer doodads. By all rights there should be a few suckers willing to buy strictly on price and there’s nothing wrong with building an average quality/average appeal home. The neighbors in their prior phases will be mad but they have bigger problems to worry about right now.

I’ll bet 2,100 SqFt @ $550k would probably find a few buyers right now.

[outtamojo]

“I’ll bet 2,100 SqFt @ $550k would probably find a few buyers right now.”

I could go for that. I’m trying to convince my wife that 4S
is better than San Elijo- she like the views over there. The views are nice, but I’m afraid once they open the road to thru traffic San Elijo will be too congested.
Also, San Elijo is in San Marcos high territory and the API score there makes me hesitant. Any other points I could make with her?

[Bugs]

If you like that house at $550k you’ll probably really like it at $350k.

I don’t think San Elijo is going to get more congested than it is right now without the connecting roads. It’s not like outsiders are going to use those roads to cut through that area on their way to somewhere else.

4S is a little closer to the employment centers in San Diego – that’s the factor that will drive the difference in value between these areas more than anything else.

In my opinion, the proximity to employment as an influence on value is highly underrated and the quality of the schools is overrated. $4/gallon gas is a factor that could tip the scales on prices in the more distant areas.

[CardiffBaseball]

If you have kids and have to pick one over the other, would you rather have Poway Schools or San Marcos? This should be a fairly easy question. You choose San Marcos if you think the schools are basically good enough, and the housing is better bang for the buck. Otherwise, pick a better school system.

[Anonymous]

I went to San Elijo with the kids and wife last weekend. Played in the park, grabbed a smoothie in the cafe – very nice, great location with ocean breezes, many areas had ocean views. I would be very concerned about the increase in traffic once that road opens. The sales guy was hesitant when I asked him about the projected increase, but then admitted that 35,000+ cars will go past his cafe every day. Keep in mind that we are not talking about a side artery like they should have built, but a direct route through downtown San Elijo. For tens of thousands of people, if not hundreds of thousands, that route will be quicker than going San Marcos Blvd. to Palomar Airport Rd to the 5. This will be enough to ensure that there will be gridlock traffic in d-town San Elijo all day long IMO. And how about that new gas station? You’d think they would have enforced some architectural standards to make them build it with colors, brick etc. that fits in with the rest of the area. EG: Look at the new fire station San Marcos built on Rancho Santa Fe Rd. – very attractive and in line with the themes the city has developed at that new shopping center off of Las Posas, the main city building etc. I’m thinking they shouldn’t even have a gas station in that spot to begin with. But who am I to comment, I am not a part of the landed gentry.

[Anonymous]

This forum is great…. We have been wandering about 4S ranch for the last few weeks…Seems like the builders are not negotiating much (or we don’t know how to do it)…Have a question for the folks here…Have you considered Maybeck@4S…the builder in William Lyons…Seems like their price per sq. ft is lower than that of John Liang’s…And the floor plans are decent…Any idea about this builder/development….They are asking ~ 724500 for a 3180sq. ft home…

[robyns_song]

Actually outtamojo, they built Amante at 1825 for $550K…but those weren’t very high quality, in my opinion. Amante is sold out of all phases, but it won’t be too much longer before you’ll find you 2100 for $550K. There’s that one house that’s in foreclosure listed on craigslist (and everywhere else)…it’s 1862sqft wanting to do a short sale for $549K. If you atleast wait until after the summer, you shouldn’t have a hard time finding a 2100 sqft home for less $.

[an]

I’ve been through all the models in 4s Ranch around that size. Personally, I like maybeck the least since the garage is in the alley, which mean no drive way. That’s horrible if you have guests. I like K. Hov. Evergreen the best. The only builder w/ nice double french front door. The floor plan also feel much more open than the rest.

[Author]

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